Oilpan4
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Re: California, allies ready for emission-law war with Trump EPA, CARB head says

Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:22 am

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:20 pm
Oilpan4 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:40 pm
Well its pretty clear the virus was never going to be as bad as they said it was going to be and the lock down is barely slowing it down.
Was pretty bad in Italy and NYC. Mass graves in Brazil and Iran. Russia is lying, as usual.

Why do you repeat Russian lies?
Good thing we don't have a passive semi functional health care system like italy.
Iran they have been marrying cousins for a thousand years and half the population is barely allowed to see a doctor so no surprise there.
If Russia made an apparent honest gesture or told the truth about anything I would be very worried.

The antibody study conducted in NYC shows up to 30% of people have had the virus.
Going into this we were told that if even 10% of people got it the black death would look like Disney land.

So we are way beyond worst case for infection rare and it didn't even overwhelm the hospitals, which was the whole reason for the lockdown and scarring people.
Why do you spread fear and promote panic?
trumpvirus
Is going to get you.

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mwalsh
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:20 am

Nubo wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:27 am
cwerdna wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:29 pm
(To include a right-leaning "news" source but it's been echoed by more neutral and left-leaning ones too...)
Trump claims he was being sarcastic about coronavirus disinfectant comments
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... t-comments
:roll:
So the "alternative facts" explanation of his terrible behavior is that he was actually trolling the press and consequently the American people. Well I guess that's ok then. What a guy.

Dear Mr. Trump...

Image

The same holds true for many other words Trump tries to use. "Dumb as a rock" is insulting to rocks!
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Re: California, allies ready for emission-law war with Trump EPA, CARB head says

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:08 am

Oilpan4 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:22 am
If Russia made an apparent honest gesture or told the truth about anything I would be very worried.
Then why do you repeat Russian lies?
Oilpan4 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:22 am
The antibody study conducted in NYC shows up to 30% of people have had the virus.
Given that antibody tests currently have high false negative rates, I bolded the key part of your claim.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04 ... unreliable
A small study in the Boston suburb of Chelsea has found the highest prevalence of antibodies so far. Prompted by the striking number of COVID-19 patients from Chelsea colleagues had seen, Massachusetts General Hospital pathologists John Iafrate and Vivek Naranbhai quickly organized a local serology survey. Within 2 days, they collected blood samples from 200 passersby on a street corner. That evening, they processed the samples—and shared the results with a reporter from The Boston Globe. Sixty-three were positive—31.5%. The result carries several large caveats. The team used a test whose maker, BioMedomics, says it has a specificity of only about 90%
So the maker of the test claims only 10% false positives, and subtracting that suggests perhaps 20% of people walking around in Chelsea MA have been infected, a very hard hit suburb of Boston. We get to herd immunity when the effective R is less than 1, and as R0 is about 3, then we would need to see antibody results well over 66%... including the false positives.
Oilpan4 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:22 am
Going into this we were told that if even 10% of people got it the black death would look like Disney land.
10 yard penalty, loss of down. Moving the goalposts.

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=30885#p578637

Oilpan4 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:22 am
So we are way beyond worst case for infection rare and it didn't even overwhelm the hospitals, which was the whole reason for the lockdown and scarring people.
Say what? The lockdown worked, so there wasn't a reason for the lockdown?
Oilpan4 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:22 am
Why do you spread fear and promote panic?
15 yard penalty and loss of down, whataboutism.
WetEV
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LeftieBiker
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Re: California, allies ready for emission-law war with Trump EPA, CARB head says

Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:20 pm

So the maker of the test claims only 10% false positives, and subtracting that suggests perhaps 20% of people walking around in Chelsea MA have been infected, a very hard hit suburb of Boston.
I just got up, but I'm pretty sure that 90% of 30% is about 27%, not 20%.
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Re: California, allies ready for emission-law war with Trump EPA, CARB head says

Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:34 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:20 pm
So the maker of the test claims only 10% false positives, and subtracting that suggests perhaps 20% of people walking around in Chelsea MA have been infected, a very hard hit suburb of Boston.
I just got up, but I'm pretty sure that 90% of 30% is about 27%, not 20%.
False positive rate doesn't work that way.

Test 100 healthy people, get 10 positive results. So if you get 30 positive results, mostly likely number of infected was about 20. Yea, slightly more as 2 of the false positives are also real positives. So 22% is actually closer.
Last edited by WetEV on Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
WetEV
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Oilpan4
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Re: California, allies ready for emission-law war with Trump EPA, CARB head says

Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:59 pm

We have made the cure for worse than the disease.
2 years ago 60,000 people died from the flu no one did anything different, it barely made the news. Not one single change was made or store closed.
We didn't even attempt sensible things that wouldn't hurt anyone like move part of public school summer break to the peak of cold and flu season. I'm sure if we tried that the teachers union would riot.
Or better prepare hospitals for a extra nasty cold and flu season in the immediate future by stockpiling a little more ppe before cold and flu sesson.

That article you linked just proves my point.
90 to 96% accurate isn't "a high number of false positives".
And you don't just subtract 10% off the top of the test results like you said. In California where they were pretty hard hit and the test showed 2% to 4% of people have caught the virus, if you subtract 10% from that, then what, so no one's had it?

Actually the lock down doesn't appear to have worked except for in the most density populated areas. Remember 7 states never shutdown and their percapa infection rate has remained well under the national average.
If the lockdown was what really saved us then those states should be overflowing the mass graves with bodies by the dump truck load.

If you want to continue to live in fear and hide in your house be my guest. The adults have a country to keep going.
trumpvirus
Is going to get you.

Oilpan4
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Re: California, allies ready for emission-law war with Trump EPA, CARB head says

Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:00 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:20 pm
So the maker of the test claims only 10% false positives, and subtracting that suggests perhaps 20% of people walking around in Chelsea MA have been infected, a very hard hit suburb of Boston.
I just got up, but I'm pretty sure that 90% of 30% is about 27%, not 20%.
Yes, thank you.
trumpvirus
Is going to get you.

Oilpan4
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:05 pm

Here is a story that you won't see in the main stream media.
95-96% of prison inmates who test positive for the virus show no symptoms.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-priso ... efece.html

(Edited by Moderator for accuracy)
trumpvirus
Is going to get you.

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mwalsh
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:08 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:05 pm
Here is a story that you won't see in the main stream media.
95-96% of prison inmates test positive for the virus and show no symptoms.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-priso ... efece.html
I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make. Yes, many, many people are walking around who are positive and either have no symptoms or have had very mild symptoms.

If I can ever get an antibody test, I'm almost certain that my 12 day cough, with a little tightness in my chest and no other symptoms (including no fever), will turn out to have been C19. If it is, then my wife is the luckiest senior alive or is also positive for antibodies. And if she is positive for antibodies, then she only showed a mild fever and a bit of diarrhea for a couple of days.

The flip side of that are the poor folks who are terribly ill and succumb to the virus after being in agony for weeks.

So are you trying to say, fuck the people who get terribly sick and die because they are such a small percentage of the population? Because I don't find that acceptable.
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:49 pm

Here is a story that you won't see in the main stream media.
95-96% of prison inmates test positive for the virus and show no symptoms.
You got that very wrong. It should read "95-96% of prison inmates WHO test positive for the virus show no symptoms." There is no figure given for percentage of the prison population who test positive, just the number of inmates who tested positive. Please correct it.
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