Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

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GCC:
IHS Markit: production of carbon-free “green” hydrogen could be cost-competitive by 2030


https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/07/20200716-ihs.html


By 2030 the production of hydrogen fuel by the electrolytic splitting of water—which can be carbon-free provided the electricity used in the process is produced by renewables—could become cost-competitive with currently predominant methods that require the use of natural gas as a feedstock, according to analysis by the IHS Markit Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum.

The hydrogen produced by electrolysis is rapidly developing from pilot to commercial-scale operation in many parts of the world.

Costs for producing green hydrogen have fallen 50% since 2015 and could be reduced by an additional 30% by 2025 due to the benefits of increased scale and more standardized manufacturing, among other factors.

The work that we have done for the IHS Markit Hydrogen Forum very much focuses on economies of scale as a way of reducing costs, developing dedicated renewables in order to get the load factor on the electrolyzer up and, of course, continued expectations of falling costs for renewables.

—Simon Blakey, IHS Markit Senior Advisor, Global Gas

Investment in “power-to-x” projects—of which hydrogen makes up the large majority—is growing rapidly. Investment is expected to grow from around $30 million in 2019 to more than $700 million in 2023.

Economies of scale are a primary driver for green hydrogen’s growing cost competitiveness. The average size for power-to-x projects scheduled for 2023 is 100 MW—ten times the capacity of the largest project in operation today, according to the IHS Markit Power-to-X Tracker, which tracks hydrogen projects around the world. . . .

Hydrogen’s overall share in the energy mix will ultimately depend on the extent of decarbonization that is desired. In Europe, currently the primary market for hydrogen projects, hydrogen could account for as much as one third of the energy mix if the aim was 95% decarbonization or greater.

In Europe it is now widely agreed that electrification alone cannot deliver the level of emissions reduction that many countries aspire to. Hydrogen is a highly versatile fuel—both in terms of how it can be transported and the variety of its potential end-use applications. The greater the degree of a decarbonization, the greater the likely role of hydrogen in the energy future.

—Catherine Robinson, IHS Markit Executive Director, European Power, Hydrogen and Renewable Gas
 
They can sell all their green hydrogen to the petrochemical industry.
They only make millions of tons of hydrogen per year from natural gas. So there's no need to fuel hydrogen cars. There's million of tons that could be used in non motoring applications.
Something like 95% of the nitrogen in the average Americans body came from petrochemical industry synthetic fertilizer, which all started as hydrogen.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
The cost problem isn't solved.

No one has claimed that it is, only that it's on a path to being solved in the next 5-10 years, and that it's now time to start moving from the Dem/Val phase into production to start getting costs down, but subsidies and mandates will be required for a while yet. IOW, the same process that RE and BEVs have followed; Wind/PV have now reached cost-competitiveness and can stand on their own, BEVs and H2/FCEVs haven't, with BEVs closer to doing so at the lower end of capability.

Then you could identify the technology. What technology will produce hydrogen cheaper than renewable electric power in 5-10 years? (I expect to hear crickets.)

The path to FCEVs is actually a rather different path. The compelling use for FCEV is aviation, not automotive. Fuel cells are not yet ready for aviation, but perhaps they might be ready for test vehicles in a decade. Fuel cost is less of a concern, as renewable electric power isn't the competition. I'd expect to be able to fly to California in a fuel cell power plane before I could drive there.

Electric power has long been cheaper than gasoline.

electric_vehicles_rate_options_gasvselec.gif


Hydrogen has long been more expensive than electric power. Making hydrogen cheaper will first displace a lot of fossil fuel produced hydrogen, used for all sorts of thing in industrial applications. FCEVs are far down the list of potential economic uses.

GRA said:
WetEV said:
More range has a declining value. Sure, 100 to 200 miles is a big added value. How about 200 to 400? If given a choice between 400 miles of range and 800 miles of range, how much extra would you be willing to pay? How about 1600 miles of range? How much cash would you spend to get that? How about 2800 miles? How about 2800 miles at 110 mph?
The step from 200-400 miles represents far more than a doubling of utility to me (and most car buyers). I only need to take a break every 4-6 hours.

You are not the typical car buyer. I'm not as well, my typical trip includes a stop about every 80 miles. Not for me, for my wife. That is about her "comfort range". This is why a 200 mile range is very acceptable to me.

You can buy a top of the line EV with 400 mile range now. I'd expect the more affordable (aka Bolt/LEAF) class of BEVs will be there in less than 5-10 years. Realistically, long before hydrogen.
 
WetEV said:
Hydrogen has long been more expensive than electric power. Making hydrogen cheaper will first displace a lot of fossil fuel produced hydrogen, used for all sorts of thing in industrial applications. FCEVs are far down the list of potential economic uses.

I would like to see that.
Is there anyone who doesn't want that?
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
The cost problem isn't solved.

No one has claimed that it is, only that it's on a path to being solved in the next 5-10 years, and that it's now time to start moving from the Dem/Val phase into production to start getting costs down, but subsidies and mandates will be required for a while yet. IOW, the same process that RE and BEVs have followed; Wind/PV have now reached cost-competitiveness and can stand on their own, BEVs and H2/FCEVs haven't, with BEVs closer to doing so at the lower end of capability.

Then you could identify the technology. What technology will produce hydrogen cheaper than renewable electric power in 5-10 years? (I expect to hear crickets.)


To repeat for the umpteenth time, H2 doesn't have to be cheaper than RE, it only has to be competitive with gas/diesel, which is the goal. Anything beyond that is gravy.


WetEV said:
The path to FCEVs is actually a rather different path. The compelling use for FCEV is aviation, not automotive. Fuel cells are not yet ready for aviation, but perhaps they might be ready for test vehicles in a decade. Fuel cost is less of a concern, as renewable electric power isn't the competition. I'd expect to be able to fly to California in a fuel cell power plane before I could drive there.

Seeing as how the only thing preventing you from doing so is the lack of an H2 filling station or two along the way, while FCEV a/c will have a lot of testing and certification to do before any passenger can fly on one, I'd say you've got it bass-ackwards.


WetEV said:
Electric power has long been cheaper than gasoline.

electric_vehicles_rate_options_gasvselec.gif


Hydrogen has long been more expensive than electric power. Making hydrogen cheaper will first displace a lot of fossil fuel produced hydrogen, used for all sorts of thing in industrial applications. FCEVs are far down the list of potential economic uses.

And yet, despite electricity being usually cheaper than gas (not for me at retail chargers), ICEs dominate because of the capability they provide. BEVs will improve, but at the moment FCEVs also provide greater capability.

BTW, when talking about a/c you ignore FCEV trains, which are already in commercial service in Europe. The justification for them here is much greater given our much lower population density, which makes track electrification uneconomic bar a few routes like the NE corridor. Then there's ocean-going shipping.


WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
More range has a declining value. Sure, 100 to 200 miles is a big added value. How about 200 to 400? If given a choice between 400 miles of range and 800 miles of range, how much extra would you be willing to pay? How about 1600 miles of range? How much cash would you spend to get that? How about 2800 miles? How about 2800 miles at 110 mph?
The step from 200-400 miles represents far more than a doubling of utility to me (and most car buyers). I only need to take a break every 4-6 hours.

You are not the typical car buyer. I'm not as well, my typical trip includes a stop about every 80 miles. Not for me, for my wife. That is about her "comfort range". This is why a 200 mile range is very acceptable to me.


The thing is, the typical car buyer wants about as much range as I do, certainly at least 300+ no worries miles plus a reserve in any conditions, for as long as they keep the car. Which is what virtually all ICE models provide.


WetEV said:
You can buy a top of the line EV with 400 mile range now. I'd expect the more affordable (aka Bolt/LEAF) class of BEVs will be there in less than 5-10 years. Realistically, long before hydrogen.


380 mile range Hyundai Nexo Blue FCEV CUV base MSRP $58,735, with a real range greater than the $74,990 base MSRP '400 mile' Model S offered by Tesla, because unlike the Tesla I can freely fill it up and and if I wish drain the tank (not that I would, as an emergency reserve is there for a reason) every time if I want without having to worry about causing long-term degradation. The new Mirai will apparently exceed 400 miles, being considerably more slippery than the Nexo.

A better comparison for the Nexo size-wise is with the 316 mile, $52,990 base MSRP Model Y (Edit: new MSRP $49,990); again, Mod. Y real range will be less, unless you're so wealthy you simply don't care about degradation.

Tesla specifically recommends not charging to more than 90%, and you don't get full Regen either if you do go above that level. As we all know, battery longevity is maximised by limiting the SoC range.

No comment on the Model Y SR being cancelled and the reason given by Tesla, which flies directly in the face of your contention that range isn't compelling? The silence is deafening.

To repeat, the only thing preventing FCEVs from being practical ICE car replacements is whether and when RE H2 prices can be made competitive with gas/diesel. The car and infrastructure costs will drop due to economies of scale, and as noted in the IHS Markit link have been doing so significantly over the last several years despite the low numbers of both.
 
Range, time, location and cost to fuel FCEV vs BEV is not directly comparable due to home charging available to many BEVs and much fewer hydrogen stations on the open road. They may each have advantages and disadvantages.... just saying 300 miles in a BEV is not necessarily comparable to 300 miles in a FCEV.
 
smkettner said:
Range, time, location and cost to fuel FCEV vs BEV is not directly comparable due to home charging available to many BEVs and much fewer hydrogen stations on the open road. They may each have advantages and disadvantages.... just saying 300 miles in a BEV is not necessarily comparable to 300 miles in a FCEV.

Of course they aren't comparable. Most of the world's car owners can't charge at home. And a 300 mile BEV that is only re-charged to 80% on the road to keep charging time reasonable is only a 240 mile BEV (minus reserves, allowance for HVAC use, degradation etc.) when new, while the FCEV remains a 300 mile FCEV minus only reserves and A/C use for its lifetime, just like an ICE. The Nexo Blue should provide 300 miles in almost any conditions plus a reserve, while making free use of HVAC, i.e. 300 miles with no worries.

Of course, either tech needs fueling/charging infrastructure, but you need less of it for FCEVs owing to their greater range and faster refueling time. After all, we serve something like 260 million cars in this country with only 160k or so gas stations. As we're likely going to replace ICEs with a mix of EV types, we should need far fewer H2 stations to serve a smaller total # of FCEVs.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
No one has claimed that it is, only that it's on a path to being solved in the next 5-10 years, and that it's now time to start moving from the Dem/Val phase into production to start getting costs down, but subsidies and mandates will be required for a while yet. IOW, the same process that RE and BEVs have followed; Wind/PV have now reached cost-competitiveness and can stand on their own, BEVs and H2/FCEVs haven't, with BEVs closer to doing so at the lower end of capability.

Then you could identify the technology. What technology will produce hydrogen cheaper than renewable electric power in 5-10 years? (I expect to hear crickets.)


To repeat for the umpteenth time, H2 doesn't have to be cheaper than RE, it only has to be competitive with gas/diesel, which is the goal. Anything beyond that is gravy.

Crickets. There is no hydrogen breakthrough cost reduction technology. Crickets. Crickets.

In 10 years, most new cars will be BEVs. Range of affordable BEVs will be around 400 miles. Hydrogen might compete... but not on cost, or convenience, or by then on range, or on performance. So again, how does hydrogen compete in automotive? Against BEVs, not against ICE.
 
GRA said:
Most of the world's car owners can't charge at home.

Most of the world's car owners have AC power to their house. L1 charging is fairly simple and cheap to add. L1 charging is all most people need for almost all of their driving.

GRA said:
Of course, either tech needs fueling/charging infrastructure, but you need less of it for FCEVs owing to their greater range and faster refueling time. After all, we serve something like 260 million cars in this country with only 160k or so gas stations. As we're likely going to replace ICEs with a mix of EV types, we should need far fewer H2 stations to serve a smaller total # of FCEVs.
Good hydrogen stations can serve 1200 cars per day at a cost of 5.5 millions each.

L1 station can serve 1 car per day at a cost of $0.68 each.

https://www.homedepot.com/p/Leviton-15-Amp-Residential-Grade-Grounding-Duplex-Outlet-Black-5320-ECP/301361472
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Then you could identify the technology. What technology will produce hydrogen cheaper than renewable electric power in 5-10 years? (I expect to hear crickets.)


To repeat for the umpteenth time, H2 doesn't have to be cheaper than RE, it only has to be competitive with gas/diesel, which is the goal. Anything beyond that is gravy.

Crickets. There is no hydrogen breakthrough cost reduction technology. Crickets. Crickets.

In 10 years, most new cars will be BEVs. Range of affordable BEVs will be around 400 miles. Hydrogen might compete... but not on cost, or convenience, or by then on range, or on performance. So again, how does hydrogen compete in automotive? Against BEVs, not against ICE.


You're forecasting again. That's fine, there are lots of those floating about, but at best a forecast is just an educated guess. There were lots of them 30 years ago about when PV/Wind would be competitive, and at least one of them was so probably correctly correct, by random chance if nothing else. Same goes for when BEVs will be competitive with ICEs and if/when they'll make up the majority of sales, if/when H2 will be competitive with gas, and so on.

We can check back in five to ten years and see if you're right. I haven't been willing to make a forecast, as my crystal ball faxing days are behind me, and will await events.

So, tell me again how range isn't compelling for customers😁

I'll wait and
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Most of the world's car owners can't charge at home.

Most of the world's car owners have AC power to their house. L1 charging is fairly simple and cheap to add. L1 charging is all most people need for almost all of their driving.

Unlike the U.S., most of the world's car owners don't live in detached single family homes with private garages. FTM, as noted previously 44% of U S. households can't charge at home either. If you can, great, some kind of PEV could work for you.


WetEV said:
GRA said:
Of course, either tech needs fueling/charging infrastructure, but you need less of it for FCEVs owing to their greater range and faster refueling time. After all, we serve something like 260 million cars in this country with only 160k or so gas stations. As we're likely going to replace ICEs with a mix of EV types, we should need far fewer H2 stations to serve a smaller total # of FCEVs.


Good hydrogen stations can serve 1200 cars per day at a cost of 5.5 millions each.

L1 station can serve 1 car per day at a cost of $0.68 each.

https://www.homedepot.com/p/Leviton-15-Amp-Residential-Grade-Grounding-Duplex-Outlet-Black-5320-ECP/301361472

I like how you switched from the capital cost of an H2 station to the cost/fill of an L1. Apples to apples would be total cost/fill over the lifetime of the installation. And then you neglected to include the cost of the wiring, protection, install, tubing, permits, inspection, etc. in the cost of the L1.

Of course, H2 stations aren't costing anything like that much now, as California's annual H2 reports have been showing a drop due to economies of scale as well as the usual technical improvements, a trend that will accelerate for a while yet. The IHS Markit link said the same thing.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Most of the world's car owners can't charge at home.

Most of the world's car owners have AC power to their house. L1 charging is fairly simple and cheap to add. L1 charging is all most people need for almost all of their driving.

Unlike the U.S., most of the world's car owners don't live in detached single family homes with private garages. FTM, as noted previously 44% of U S. households can't charge at home either. If you can, great, some kind of PEV could work for you.

You don't need a detached single family home with a private garage to have an L1 station by your parking spot on a driveway or the street.

Why are you so anti-BEV?
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
No one has claimed that it is, only that it's on a path to being solved in the next 5-10 years, and that it's now time to start moving from the Dem/Val phase into production to start getting costs down, but subsidies and mandates will be required for a while yet. IOW, the same process that RE and BEVs have followed; Wind/PV have now reached cost-competitiveness and can stand on their own, BEVs and H2/FCEVs haven't, with BEVs closer to doing so at the lower end of capability.

Then you could identify the technology. What technology will produce hydrogen cheaper than renewable electric power in 5-10 years? (I expect to hear crickets.)


To repeat for the umpteenth time, H2 doesn't have to be cheaper than RE, it only has to be competitive with gas/diesel, which is the goal. Anything beyond that is gravy.


WetEV said:
The path to FCEVs is actually a rather different path. The compelling use for FCEV is aviation, not automotive. Fuel cells are not yet ready for aviation, but perhaps they might be ready for test vehicles in a decade. Fuel cost is less of a concern, as renewable electric power isn't the competition. I'd expect to be able to fly to California in a fuel cell power plane before I could drive there.

Seeing as how the only thing preventing you from doing so is the lack of an H2 filling station or two along the way, while FCEV a/c will have a lot of testing and certification to do before any passenger can fly on one, I'd say you've got it bass-ackwards.


WetEV said:
Electric power has long been cheaper than gasoline.

electric_vehicles_rate_options_gasvselec.gif


Hydrogen has long been more expensive than electric power. Making hydrogen cheaper will first displace a lot of fossil fuel produced hydrogen, used for all sorts of thing in industrial applications. FCEVs are far down the list of potential economic uses.

And yet, despite electricity being usually cheaper than gas (not for me at retail chargers), ICEs dominate because of the capability they provide. BEVs will improve, but at the moment FCEVs also provide greater capability.

BTW, when talking about a/c you ignore FCEV trains, which are already in commercial service in Europe. The justification for them here is much greater given our much lower population density, which makes track electrification uneconomic bar a few routes like the NE corridor. Then there's ocean-going shipping.


WetEV said:
GRA said:
The step from 200-400 miles represents far more than a doubling of utility to me (and most car buyers). I only need to take a break every 4-6 hours.

You are not the typical car buyer. I'm not as well, my typical trip includes a stop about every 80 miles. Not for me, for my wife. That is about her "comfort range". This is why a 200 mile range is very acceptable to me.


The thing is, the typical car buyer wants about as much range as I do, certainly at least 300+ no worries miles plus a reserve in any conditions, for as long as they keep the car. Which is what virtually all ICE models provide.


WetEV said:
You can buy a top of the line EV with 400 mile range now. I'd expect the more affordable (aka Bolt/LEAF) class of BEVs will be there in less than 5-10 years. Realistically, long before hydrogen.


380 mile range Hyundai Nexo Blue FCEV CUV base MSRP $58,735, with a real range greater than the $74,990 base MSRP '400 mile' Model S offered by Tesla, because unlike the Tesla I can freely fill it up and and if I wish drain the tank (not that I would, as an emergency reserve is there for a reason) every time if I want without having to worry about causing long-term degradation. The new Mirai will apparently exceed 400 miles, being considerably more slippery than the Nexo.

A better comparison for the Nexo size-wise is with the 316 mile, $52,990 base MSRP Model Y (Edit: new MSRP $49,990); again, Mod. Y real range will be less, unless you're so wealthy you simply don't care about degradation.

Tesla specifically recommends not charging to more than 90%, and you don't get full Regen either if you do go above that level. As we all know, battery longevity is maximised by limiting the SoC range.

No comment on the Model Y SR being cancelled and the reason given by Tesla, which flies directly in the face of your contention that range isn't compelling? The silence is deafening.

To repeat, the only thing preventing FCEVs from being practical ICE car replacements is whether and when RE H2 prices can be made competitive with gas/diesel. The car and infrastructure costs will drop due to economies of scale, and as noted in the IHS Markit link have been doing so significantly over the last several years despite the low numbers of both.

It's replies like this and to the others that show how anti-BEV you are and how you are NOT an effective advocate for EV's in general. You flat out don't get how most people can _conveniently_ own BEV's, with today's choices. That 44% not having a garage is a complete red herring, and you don't even understand why. You're completely ignorant of what living with a BEV is like. I wonder if you're one of the last users of flip-phones before being forced out when they stopped making them?
 
Oh, and FCEV's are doomed. Hyliion is prototyping their CNG (they call it Renewable Natural Gas [from biogas], but it's essentially CNG) range extended class-8 BEV truck now.

And when/if this method for producing methane directly with CO2 and an electric field can be refined to commercial scale: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200227114523.htm

... then there's no reason to electrolyze water to produce H2, because of the compression losses and containment issues. Rather produce renewable methane and get all the benefits of a fast-fill fuel, produced with renewable energy, and easily portable in existing [lower-pressure] CNG tanks.

Edit: The actual Chemistry Journal source: https://www.journal.csj.jp/doi/full/10.1246/cl.190930

Edit #2: My bad, H2 is needed as a feedstock in the reaction. So electrolyzing H2 is still needed. At least it doesn't have to be compressed first.
 
Hope this isn't a repeat:
GM backs away from hydrogen fuel-cell tech in passenger vehicles
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128920_gm-backs-away-from-hydrogen-fuel-cell-tech-in-passenger-vehicles
 
cwerdna said:
Hope this isn't a repeat:
GM backs away from hydrogen fuel-cell tech in passenger vehicles
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128920_gm-backs-away-from-hydrogen-fuel-cell-tech-in-passenger-vehicles

I remember about 10 or 12 years ago gm pleged to spend a billion dollars on hydrogen development.
I hope they didn't.
 
Oilpan4 said:
cwerdna said:
Hope this isn't a repeat:
GM backs away from hydrogen fuel-cell tech in passenger vehicles
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128920_gm-backs-away-from-hydrogen-fuel-cell-tech-in-passenger-vehicles

I remember about 10 or 12 years ago gm pleged to spend a billion dollars on hydrogen development.
I hope they didn't.
I never followed by a quick Google search turned up https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2016/oct/1005-hydrogen.html from 2016:
Fast-forward to 2016: GM has invested more than $2.5 billion in hydrogen fuel cell technology and is among patent leaders along with Honda, its collaborator since 2013 in developing a next-generation system that will be much more powerful but a fraction of the size of the equipment-crammed Electrovan, which had room for only a driver and two passengers.
:mrgreen:
I did briefly test drive a GM FCEV at the Detroit Auto Show (as it's informally known) inside (!, yes) a building in January 2009.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Most of the world's car owners have AC power to their house. L1 charging is fairly simple and cheap to add. L1 charging is all most people need for almost all of their driving.

Unlike the U.S., most of the world's car owners don't live in detached single family homes with private garages. FTM, as noted previously 44% of U S. households can't charge at home either. If you can, great, some kind of PEV could work for you.

You don't need a detached single family home with a private garage to have an L1 station by your parking spot on a driveway or the street.

As I've pointed out, it will be enormously expensive and time consuming to build all those charging stations. Which isn't to say it can't or shouldn't be done; it should. But here I am, living in the U.S. metro region with the highest % of BEV sales in the country, yet 10 years after the first mass-produced BEV appeared the nearest public (L2) charging to me is 1/2 mile away in a city-owned public garage, which was opened in 2013 or 2014 IIRR, and charges $0.49/kWH.

I'm a firm believer in picking low-hanging fruit first, which is why I think we need to provide public charging in parking lots and garages first. There's such a city-owned lot 2 blocks from me. And far more workplaces have parking lots or garages they could install charging in, such as cwerdna has access to. So why do you think it hasn't happened faster?


WetEV said:
Why are you so anti-BEV?

As noted in numerous replies to others I'm not, nor am I pro-H2/FCEV. I believe both along with biofuels have a part to play in getting off fossil fuels, but that doesn't blind me to the fact that there are enormous obstacles to success in the way of each of them. I believe each has a decent chance of overcoming them but there are no guarantees, so also believe we must proceed ahead on as many fronts as possible.

BTW,here's a H2/FCEV forecast in line with your own views, via The Motley Fool:
Fuel Cell Investors Shouldn't Get Too Caught Up in the Hydrogen Economy Just Yet


https://www-fool-com.cdn.ampproject...-investors-shouldnt-get-too-caught-up-in.aspx

OTOH, via Which Car?:

Why can’t anyone make money selling an electric car?


https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/no-one-is-making-money-building-electric-cars
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Then you could identify the technology. What technology will produce hydrogen cheaper than renewable electric power in 5-10 years? (I expect to hear crickets.)


To repeat for the umpteenth time, H2 doesn't have to be cheaper than RE, it only has to be competitive with gas/diesel, which is the goal. Anything beyond that is gravy.


WetEV said:
The path to FCEVs is actually a rather different path. The compelling use for FCEV is aviation, not automotive. Fuel cells are not yet ready for aviation, but perhaps they might be ready for test vehicles in a decade. Fuel cost is less of a concern, as renewable electric power isn't the competition. I'd expect to be able to fly to California in a fuel cell power plane before I could drive there.

Seeing as how the only thing preventing you from doing so is the lack of an H2 filling station or two along the way, while FCEV a/c will have a lot of testing and certification to do before any passenger can fly on one, I'd say you've got it bass-ackwards.


WetEV said:
Electric power has long been cheaper than gasoline.

electric_vehicles_rate_options_gasvselec.gif


Hydrogen has long been more expensive than electric power. Making hydrogen cheaper will first displace a lot of fossil fuel produced hydrogen, used for all sorts of thing in industrial applications. FCEVs are far down the list of potential economic uses.

And yet, despite electricity being usually cheaper than gas (not for me at retail chargers), ICEs dominate because of the capability they provide. BEVs will improve, but at the moment FCEVs also provide greater capability.

BTW, when talking about a/c you ignore FCEV trains, which are already in commercial service in Europe. The justification for them here is much greater given our much lower population density, which makes track electrification uneconomic bar a few routes like the NE corridor. Then there's ocean-going shipping.


WetEV said:
You are not the typical car buyer. I'm not as well, my typical trip includes a stop about every 80 miles. Not for me, for my wife. That is about her "comfort range". This is why a 200 mile range is very acceptable to me.


The thing is, the typical car buyer wants about as much range as I do, certainly at least 300+ no worries miles plus a reserve in any conditions, for as long as they keep the car. Which is what virtually all ICE models provide.


WetEV said:
You can buy a top of the line EV with 400 mile range now. I'd expect the more affordable (aka Bolt/LEAF) class of BEVs will be there in less than 5-10 years. Realistically, long before hydrogen.


380 mile range Hyundai Nexo Blue FCEV CUV base MSRP $58,735, with a real range greater than the $74,990 base MSRP '400 mile' Model S offered by Tesla, because unlike the Tesla I can freely fill it up and and if I wish drain the tank (not that I would, as an emergency reserve is there for a reason) every time if I want without having to worry about causing long-term degradation. The new Mirai will apparently exceed 400 miles, being considerably more slippery than the Nexo.

A better comparison for the Nexo size-wise is with the 316 mile, $52,990 base MSRP Model Y (Edit: new MSRP $49,990); again, Mod. Y real range will be less, unless you're so wealthy you simply don't care about degradation.

Tesla specifically recommends not charging to more than 90%, and you don't get full Regen either if you do go above that level. As we all know, battery longevity is maximised by limiting the SoC range.

No comment on the Model Y SR being cancelled and the reason given by Tesla, which flies directly in the face of your contention that range isn't compelling? The silence is deafening.

To repeat, the only thing preventing FCEVs from being practical ICE car replacements is whether and when RE H2 prices can be made competitive with gas/diesel. The car and infrastructure costs will drop due to economies of scale, and as noted in the IHS Markit link have been doing so significantly over the last several years despite the low numbers of both.

It's replies like this and to the others that show how anti-BEV you are and how you are NOT an effective advocate for EV's in general. You flat out don't get how most people can _conveniently_ own BEV's, with today's choices. That 44% not having a garage is a complete red herring, and you don't even understand why. You're completely ignorant of what living with a BEV is like. I wonder if you're one of the last users of flip-phones before being forced out when they stopped making them?


I notice you didn't answer my question re what choice you'd make in the same situation

It's not 44% not having a garage, it's 44% not being able to charge at home in the U.S. The percentage is a lot higher in other countries with higher population densities, i.e. more people living in apartments/townhomes etc. The source for the U.S. data was a survey conducted by Plug-in America a few years ago. I guess they must be anti-BEV too.

As to flip phones, only got a smart phone last year. As I don't make phone calls anymore owing to my hearing, the only thing I used a phone for was texting and I did very little of it, but a smart phone's easier for that. The flip phone was smaller, lighter and more rugged, though,which made it easier to carry in the backcountry for emergencies.

OTOH my smartphone has GPS and I've got a nav/map app for it, which makes it fun to play with (and all too seductive, like many computer programs). As I learned to navigate using map, compass, altimeter and my brain decades ago the phone's non-essential and, being fragile and dependent on batteries, not to be depended on, and I prefer to get away from people who are constantly using theirs in the backcountry in any case.

When my last laptop died I realized just how much time I was spending on it at home, so didn't replace it and dropped internet service, resolving that I'd only use library computers from then on for private email etc., as they have time limits and I'd have to walk over there to use them.

I spend enough time at work on a computer to not want to also be spending most of my free time on one. The smart phone's been essential for the last few months though, as the libraries have all been shut since mid-March. I even considered getting myself another computer but so far have resisted it, even though typing replies like this on my phone is a royal pain.
 
GCC:
SOFC-maker Bloom Energy announces initial strategy for hydrogen market entry; partnership with SK


https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/07/20200720-bloom.html


Solid-oxide-fuel-cell manufacturer Bloom Energy is entering the commercial hydrogen market by introducing hydrogen-powered fuel cells and electrolyzers that produce renewable hydrogen.

These products will be first introduced to the South Korean market in 2021 through an expanded partnership with SK Engineering and Construction (SK E&C), an affiliate of SK Group.

Bloom’s technologies can be critical in enabling South Korea to execute on its government-mandated Hydrogen Economy Roadmap. Bloom’s existing partnership with SK E&C has already sold 120 megawatts (MW) of fuel cells in South Korea, generating more than $1 billion in equipment and future services revenue for Bloom. . . .

By the end of 2020, Bloom expects to ship a 100 kW pilot server to South Korea to power an SK E&C facility in early 2021. The second phase, a 1 MW hydrogen server installation, is targeted for a 2022 deployment. Both companies have committed to fund and to resource these two phases fully. . . .

SK Group is the leading oil and gas provider in South Korea with 3,400 gas stations. The South Korean government’s roadmap requires the construction of 1,200 filling stations to fuel 6.2 million hydrogen cars by 2040. Bloom’s electrolyzers would allow SK to play a vital role in helping to meet these targets.

—Jason Ahn. . . .

Generating low-cost hydrogen from intermittent renewables is a sine qua non for decarbonization. Solid oxide electrolyzers hold the greatest potential to generate low-cost green hydrogen because of their superior efficiency, rapidly declining costs, and scalability. Achieving zero emissions in many sectors will depend upon making massive amounts of renewable hydrogen. Because Bloom is the market leader in solid oxide technology, I am very encouraged by this announcement.

—Jack Brouwer, professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and director of the National Fuel Cell Research Center (NFCRC) at the University of California, Irvine


Re the GM announcement, the GCR article says:
Now GM plans to focus on battery-electric powertrains for passenger cars, and fuel-cell powertrains for military and commercial vehicles, Parker reportedly said on the conference call.
 
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