GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:50 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:00 am
GRA wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:10 pm
So yeah, I win this argument. The QC infrastructure off interstates generally, and on this route specifically, lacks both the reliability and redundancy to be depended on to get me to my destination, and do so in the least amount of time and with minimum inconvenience.
I agree. You are not the average driver, as you don't commute by car, and your trips are both long and to uncommon destinations. Not in the first 1% of BEV drivers, or the first 2%, or 4%, or 8%, or 16%, or 32%, but sometime after 64%. I'd hazard a guess of 2030 or later. After most new cars are BEVs.

I've been hoping it won't be that long. I've been waiting for almost a decade already. I retain some limited hope that one of the two and its infrastructure will be acceptable by 2025, but looking at all the forecasts that seems optimistic.

An FCHEV could do the job now given the infrastructure, if the prices (car and fuel) were right. OTOH, if we get rid of the Dumpster (104 days to election, but who's counting) and the Dems take control of the Senate, who knows?
Last edited by GRA on Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:03 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:02 am
GRA wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:30 pm
BTW, one of the reasons I'm partial to PHEVs at this time is that, aside from being the only AFV tech that currently provides a complete replacement for ICEs, and their lower purchase price, they can pretty easily be fully charged overnight via L1, even at say 8 instead of 12A, which is not only safer if using a non-dedicated circuit (if still illegal), but also eliminates the need for and cost of a 240V EVSE and its circuit.

As cost of PEVs is usually the biggest reason given for lack of purchase, anything we can do to reduce the price and hassle is critical. As you say, L1 is cheaper than L2, if less efficient.
For you, I'd recommend an ICE (or hybrid ICE) for at least the next decade. You will not be happy with a BEV with no home charging, your trip profile and your expectations. As you don't have home charging, you gain nothing from the extra cost of having the plug. A FCEV can't go to places far beyond subsidized fueling stations. No trips to Arches for a decade or more, perhaps never, as hydrogen is far too expensive to produce and to handle.

A PHEV is useful for someone that has lots of short trips than can be all EV, and occasional long trips. You don't fit that profile.

As batteries get cheaper and longer lasting, the value of a PHEV is getting harder to find.

Until the charging infrastructure approaches that of the gas station network, we'll still need PHEVs, and as they can stretch out what remains a limited battery supply over 4-8 cars instead of one, and at lower cost per car while seriously reducing if not totally eliminating tailpipe emissions in local driving, they still have considerable value. The problem with PHEVs had always been explaining them to the general public, not their usefulness. They are a perfect example of the '80% soonest rather than 100% later' approach that I favor.

I've had the 'to go or not go PHEV for now' discussion with myself numerous times, trying to convince myself that the ability to control local emissions where I want to was worth the extra money up front, but it doesn't pencil out. I had my highest hopes for the Niro, whether BEV or PHEV, until I learned they weren't available with AWD. Still tried to convince myself to lease a BEV Niro for a few years, as I liked it when I drove it despite it falling well short of my needs, but seeing the dealers were slapping big ADMs on them ($5k where I test drove one) soured that.

The RAV4 Prime, despite being too big and having a few other issues, comes closest to meeting my needs at the moment, but dealers are putting an even bigger ADM on them, so screw 'em. My hope is that one of the regular rental agencies in town will start to carry BEVs as they become more mainstream, so that I can ditch car ownership altogether, as my need for a car is so limited and intermittent, but requiring ICE-level range and refueling times when I do. They can worry about degradation, as long as I've got enough guaranteed range to meet my need. Someday.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:11 pm

GCC:
Project HyTime demonstrates potential for major CO2 savings from hydrogen dual fuel

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/0 ... ytime.html

More than 14 tonnes of CO2 was saved in a two-year trial involving just 11 urban trucks and vans running on green hydrogen dual fuel. That is one result of the Low Emission Freight and Logistics Trial (LEFT) project to investigate the practical deployment of hydrogen powered vehicles in the UK.

With between 20-45% of the diesel fuel being displaced by green hydrogen on the various vehicles, the HyTIME project concluded that with the appropriate hydrogen infrastructure, fleet wide roll-out could provide a huge and timely step change in overall fleet emissions.

In the trial, ULEMCo—the company pioneering the adoption of ultra-low emission hydrogen fuel with its partners—converted four refuse trucks, a road sweeper, a patient transport vehicle, four panel vans and a refrigerated van to run on hydrogen as a dual fuel.

During the trial period, nearly 60,000 km were covered and 1619 kg of hydrogen used. . . .

The demonstrated benefits would have been even more significant had the hydrogen infrastructure been more developed. Project data show that the CO2 saving would have been about 45 tonnes per annum across the 11 vehicles. When the vehicles were not using hydrogen in their day to day operations, the principal reason was the lack of available refueling facilities.


Other conclusions from the work were that tail pipe emissions in a number of specific applications such as refuse trucks were significantly better than the EURO 6 base vehicles, with the NOx emissions reduced by between 29-85% across the range of cycles tested. If deployed full time, the vehicles would not only save carbon but also provide improvements to local air quality. At least 96% of the hydrogen used in the trial came from on-site electrolysis from renewable electricity.

The drivers and operators confirmed that, from an operational point of view, the vehicles ‘fitted well with their daily operation’, but said that reliability of the hydrogen infrastructure and fuel availability needed to be improved to get the most from the technology. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:58 am

GRA wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:03 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:02 am
As batteries get cheaper and longer lasting, the value of a PHEV is getting harder to find.
Until the charging infrastructure approaches that of the gas station network, we'll still need PHEVs, and as they can stretch out what remains a limited battery supply over 4-8 cars instead of one at lower cost, while essentially eliminating air pollution in local driving, they still have considerable value. The problem with PHEVs had always been explaining them to the public, not their usefulness. They are a perfect example of the '80% soonest, rather than 100% later' approach that I believe in.
The problem with a PHEV is that it is more complex. All of the pluses and minuses of a gasoline engine as well as an electric power train.

I've driven an Audi Q5 PHEV once, and the EV range of 20 miles isn't great, but I got 29+ miles before the ICE started with some altitude gain (~200 feet net) at mostly 55MPH, and the car drives nice in BEV mode. Q5 PHEV is a nice car, is probably out of your price range ($54k). What I can't stand is the accelerator pedal response when in hybrid/ICE mode. Also isn't as stable feeling due to higher center of gravity when compared with eTron. Smaller than eTron.

Now consider the PHEV Q5 vs ICE Q5 on dollar cost. Going by list price difference, there is almost $10k of extra price. Tax credit reduces that by $6.7k. Battery size is 14kWh, took about 12kWh (maybe 11kWh usable?) from empty to full on my home L2, and for that you get only 20 miles of EPA range?? Ah, the cost of mechanical all wheel drive. Ok, but if your commute fits so you don't burn gas during the week, you can save 20miles @24 mpg. Figure a gallon a day. At $3 per gallon, 5 days a week 50 working days a year, that is $750 in gas savings... less the $250 in electric cost. Might pay back in about 6 years... depending on lots of details. After tax credit of course, would be 20+ years otherwise.

Yes, the gasoline saved also reduces air pollution, and that's not as easy to value. Actual purchase prices may vary, see stealer for details.
WetEV
#49
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WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:52 am

GRA wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:38 pm
I'm curious, do you have any personal experience of the costs of different types of public charging?
Last used of public charging was in March, with the LEAF. EVgo,
10.450 kWh. Your total cost for the session was $6.96.
Son was driving, needed a 90% charge due to stiff headwind, so was more expensive than normal. Charge rate tapers. Less than once a month, so pay a higher EVgo rate.

My last use of public charging is much more expensive than gasoline, often, not always. Sure, there are free stations at the local casino... Yea. And various special deals. Public charging at hotels is often free for guests, and restricted to guests. Work charging was $0.50 per hour, and that's cheaper than home... but more hassle.

Public charging cost is a bit factor in BEV ownership -- as long as most of your miles are charged at home.

Consider public charging at $1.00 per kWh. Home charging at $0.10 per kWh. Fraction of charging at home 95%. Effective cost of charging is

0.05*1+0.95*.10=0.145

Or $1.16 per egallon figuring 8 kWh is about an effective gallon of gas.

If most of the charging isn't at home, you might not be happy for a list of reasons... Cost is only one.

Your driving pattern appears to me to be to be likely a large fraction of public charging, even if you had charging at home, you would be paying a much higher net rate.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am

GRA wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:41 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:18 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:41 pm
As I've pointed out, it will be enormously expensive and time consuming to build all those charging stations.
As I have repeatedly replied, we don't have do all of those charging stations right away. To which I hear...crickets.
Still hearing ... crickets.
GRA wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:44 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:18 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:41 pm


As noted in numerous replies to others I'm not, nor am I pro-H2/FCEV. I believe both along with biofuels have a part to play in getting off fossil fuels, but that doesn't blind me to the fact that there are enormous obstacles to success in the way of each of them.
Which might be interesting if you understood the advantages and disadvantages of BEVs, at minimum. You either don't, and don't want to learn, or just hate the whole idea. Hard to tell the difference.
Which is your incorrect perception. Let's check, shall we?
Corrections in bold.
GRA wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:44 pm

Advantages:

Highest efficiency.

Best convenience for daily use for those who have a guaranteed, convenient place to charge at home,work or elsewhere.

Related to above, currently most options for energy replenishment.

Currently lowest initial cost alternative (albeit with less capability).

Probably lowest fueling cost, at least if charging at home.

Smoother, quieter, cleaner, better driving experience.

Lifetime durability of the battery. Excluding older BEVs.

Disadvantages:

Shorter range than other options, esp. in cold weather, however enough range for most people.

Longer energy replenishment times, which usually doesn't matter as is overnight.

People who can't charge at home or work or other frequent location likely shouldn't own one at this time, as isn't convenient

Away from home or major urban areas/transportation routes, energy replenishment options are often seriously limited and often of questionable reliability (this is true for now for all AFVs to varying degrees).

Limited production capability at the moment, no material resource constraints long term.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
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GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:20 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:58 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:03 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:02 am
As batteries get cheaper and longer lasting, the value of a PHEV is getting harder to find.
Until the charging infrastructure approaches that of the gas station network, we'll still need PHEVs, and as they can stretch out what remains a limited battery supply over 4-8 cars instead of one at lower cost, while essentially eliminating air pollution in local driving, they still have considerable value. The problem with PHEVs had always been explaining them to the public, not their usefulness. They are a perfect example of the '80% soonest, rather than 100% later' approach that I believe in.
The problem with a PHEV is that it is more complex. All of the pluses and minuses of a gasoline engine as well as an electric power train.
True, but does it matter? If the typical ICE lasts 15 years in daily service, and now you're eliminating say 80% of its running time, does anyone care that it's more complex? A PHEV is essentially an HEV with a bigger battery and a receptacle.


WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:58 am
I've driven an Audi Q5 PHEV once, and the EV range of 20 miles isn't great, but I got 29+ miles before the ICE started with some altitude gain (~200 feet net) at mostly 55MPH, and the car drives nice in BEV mode. Q5 PHEV is a nice car, is probably out of your price range ($54k).

Yes, along with being a much bigger, heavier car than I need.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:58 am
What I can't stand is the accelerator pedal response when in hybrid/ICE mode.
Yes, some companies do a better job of that than others, and personal taste also comes in.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:58 am
Also isn't as stable feeling due to higher center of gravity when compared with eTron. Smaller than eTron.

Now consider the PHEV Q5 vs ICE Q5 on dollar cost. Going by list price difference, there is almost $10k of extra price. Tax credit reduces that by $6.7k. Battery size is 14kWh, took about 12kWh (maybe 11kWh usable?) from empty to full on my home L2, and for that you get only 20 miles of EPA range?? Ah, the cost of mechanical all wheel drive. Ok, but if your commute fits so you don't burn gas during the week, you can save 20miles @24 mpg. Figure a gallon a day. At $3 per gallon, 5 days a week 50 working days a year, that is $750 in gas savings... less the $250 in electric cost. Might pay back in about 6 years... depending on lots of details. After tax credit of course, would be 20+ years otherwise.

Yes, the gasoline saved also reduces air pollution, and that's not as easy to value. Actual purchase prices may vary, see stealer for details.

I suspect for most people, a PHEV won't pay for itself at the moment bar subsidies, but I favor perks in any case. I'd love to see U.S. cities start imposing ULEV/ZEV zones such as London has. I've never liked SO HOV stickers because they result in those lanes being congested too, but I have no objection to adding a ULEV lane next to the HOV lane, and add more gradually as the % of PEVs/FCEVs increases, until we're down to just one or two all-vehicle lanes.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:29 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:52 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:38 pm
I'm curious, do you have any personal experience of the costs of different types of public charging?
Last used of public charging was in March, with the LEAF. EVgo,
10.450 kWh. Your total cost for the session was $6.96.
Son was driving, needed a 90% charge due to stiff headwind, so was more expensive than normal. Charge rate tapers. Less than once a month, so pay a higher EVgo rate.
Sorry, I should have been clearer. I meant the cost to build different types of public charging, not use it. I agree with the rest of what you wrote, and as you note, having to do virtually all my charging at public stations is more expensive than buying gasoline, even in California. Some of the sites along I-15 in Utah I might need to use on some trips are $5.00 + $0.50/kWh. EA's a relative bargain, and even they're more expensive than gas. EVgo seems like the best generally. Chargepoint around here is typically $0.10/min. + $0.25/kWh.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:58 am
My last use of public charging is much more expensive than gasoline, often, not always. Sure, there are free stations at the local casino... Yea. And various special deals. Public charging at hotels is often free for guests, and restricted to guests. Work charging was $0.50 per hour, and that's cheaper than home... but more hassle.

Public charging cost is a bit factor in BEV ownership -- as long as most of your miles are charged at home.

Consider public charging at $1.00 per kWh. Home charging at $0.10 per kWh. Fraction of charging at home 95%. Effective cost of charging is

0.05*1+0.95*.10=0.145

Or $1.16 per egallon figuring 8 kWh is about an effective gallon of gas.

If most of the charging isn't at home, you might not be happy for a list of reasons... Cost is only one.

Your driving pattern appears to me to be to be likely a large fraction of public charging, even if you had charging at home, you would be paying a much higher net rate.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12394
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:55 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am
GRA wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:41 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:18 pm


As I have repeatedly replied, we don't have do all of those charging stations right away. To which I hear...crickets.
Still hearing ... crickets.
The EU plans to build 1 million chargers by 2030. McKinsey says they'll need , I forget, 14 million? by then. See the problem?

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am
GRA wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:44 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:18 pm


Which might be interesting if you understood the advantages and disadvantages of BEVs, at minimum. You either don't, and don't want to learn, or just hate the whole idea. Hard to tell the difference.
Which is your incorrect perception. Let's check, shall we?
Corrections in bold.
GRA wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:44 pm

Advantages:

Highest efficiency.

Best convenience for daily use for those who have a guaranteed, convenient place to charge at home,work or elsewhere.

Related to above, currently most options for energy replenishment.

Currently lowest initial cost alternative (albeit with less capability).

Probably lowest fueling cost, at least if charging at home.

Smoother, quieter, cleaner, better driving experience.
How so, compared to an FCEV?

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am
Lifetime durability of the battery. Excluding older BEVs.
Just as soon as such a battery appears and a company is willing to back up such a claim with their own money. For now, no such battery is available for sale, and no one is willing to warranty one for more than 8 years. The average age of the U S. LDV fleet was 11.8 years a year or two back, and Covid-19 will undoubtedly see that grow just as it did during and after the recession, which means there'll be even more cars on the road with ages similar to mine.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am
Disadvantages:

Shorter range than other options, esp. in cold weather, however enough range for most people.
While true, the public doesn't agree, not do the companies (still waiting for your comments on Tesla cancelling the Y SR).
WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am
Longer energy replenishment times, which usually doesn't matter as is overnight.

People who can't charge at home or work or other frequent location likely shouldn't own one at this time, as isn't convenient
Yup.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:21 am
Away from home or major urban areas/transportation routes, energy replenishment options are often seriously limited and often of questionable reliability (this is true for now for all AFVs to varying degrees).

Limited production capability at the moment, no material resource constraints long term.
The last is an assumption. It's like saying that there are no material resource constraints for fossil fuels in September 1973. Cobalt from the DRC, lithium from Chile and Bolivia, rare earth elements from China, etc. We have no way of knowing what may happen politically, aside from any physical constraints.

You could just as easily say the Desertec plan to supply solar to Europe from North Africa had no resource constraints. Gee, the EU dependent on solar from Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and let's not forget Saudi Arabia - nah, no opportunity for supply disruptions there.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:26 pm

"People who can't charge at home or work or other frequent location likely shouldn't own one at this time, as isn't convenient"

"Yup."

And if they want to advocate for clean air they should consider moving to a facility that has charging access. People need to be part of the solution.... not just expecting more government money to build infrastructure.

Time to walk the walk. If you want something go get it. No more being absolved of responsibility because of your living or working situation.
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2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
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