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lpickup said:
DougWantsALeaf said:
The average Teslafi degradation is 6.7% on my ODO (10mo old car 29k km) So I’d say my examples are pretty on point.
If the average is already ~7% capacity loss, there must be alot of people above 10% loss also.

I think this is a relative newbie that hasn't had enough time with the car to determine that, like the LEAF, there is an initial drop-off of capacity that flattens out significantly.

Of course I just went to check my own report...it's a bit hard to determine what my loss actually is because while my car nominally started out at 310 miles of range (and TeslaFi actually estimated 315 miles in my earliest reports), a software update was rolled out to my car that extended that range to 325 miles, resulting in a TeslaFi estimate of 318.25 miles. At 13K miles I had my then highest range estimate at 319.66, and then it fell to 297.76 miles in January of this year at about 20K miles. But then, who knows why, but my capacity has recovered, and the latest estimate at 24K miles is now 319.97. So my battery has actually GAINED capacity! Even if you go with a theoretical 325 mile range when new, that's still 1.5% capacity loss on a 2 year old car.

My car has done almost exactly the same battery capacity dance, and it now calculates out to 320 miles range at 27 months, 25k miles.
Your breath is wasted on doug. He lurks at TMC until he finds an anecdote that matches his desire to view Tesla in a negative light and trolls here with his 'finding.' If that was not pathetic enough, often he does not understand what he is reading and the 'negative' report is something else.

By the way -- battery capacity measurements are pack temperature dependent. Range in a cold pack will be decreased. I've learned to check battery capacity ONCE a year. In part because it is a very good battery and more frequent checks are a waste of time, and in part to keep environmental variables similar across the trend points. Spring and Autumn checks (for those who just *have* to check more often) would also work OK
 
Sagebrush, come on now. I read on many different car forums, not just Tesla, Bolt, Leaf, etc.. If my wife would have said yes, I would also be a Tesla driver (at least for 1 of our cars). She hated the experience though, so that is history. I have said many times that the tech in Tesla is amazing. (though not a fan of the minimalist interior, I believe it to be more about Tesla's strategy to reduce cost from the cars than a desired design).

The reason why I posted the clip, was that the owner was stating that of the cars at his/her age/miles, that was the average for Teslafi cars tracked. It felt high for what is generally published in terms of Tesla degradation, but it was across a population, so I took it with more weight. Anecdotes from this board taken into consideration, the Teslafi is across a population (not sure how big for this data point), but it seemed to align to the available data on the newer Leaf battery, which I think is interesting. (Similar to how the 90kWh battery has has issues similar to the Leaf 30). Do either of you use Teslfi? If so, what does the app show you in terms of where your cars are in the spectrum for your age/mileage?

While anecdotal, it does feel like the SR+ variant of the Tesla M3 get's more noise than the LR variant in terms of range loss. Part of that is you care less when you lose a little off of a longer range (no different than a 24 Leaf vs. a 62 Leaf), part of it could be increased cycles, but it feels too early for that to be seen. Its more likely a quality process focused on output vs. narrow control.

It is also interesting that there is not nearly as much noise from the Bolt and Kona/Niro world on battery loss either. Its too early to tell completely, but it does feel like they may have the best batteries (admittedly with lower DC charge rates) out there from a consistency standpoint.

This is a Leaf forum, so I will pull things back to a Leaf comparison at times.
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
It is also interesting that there is not nearly as much noise from the Bolt and Kona/Niro world on battery loss either. Its too early to tell completely, but it does feel like they may have the best batteries (admittedly with lower DC charge rates) out there from a consistency standpoint.
I haven't had time to read the replies or chime in but keep in mind Bolt has no battery capacity indicator at all. It sounds like the dealer can retrieve something (in the event of reports of major capacity loss) but I'm not clear if they're allowed to tell the customer. I doubt it'd be free to request them retrieve the value/run a report since that takes dealer and tech time.

There was some capacity PID (referenced at https://www.chevybolt.org/threads/2020-bolt-usable-battery-capacity.35649/#post-549203) that you can see on Bolts using Torque Pro but it sounds like it got blocked on 2019+ Bolts (doesn't have a valid value). I'm not clear how accurate it was anyway as I never followed.

Bolt's GOM is kinda like Leafs: never reading the same value on a full charge, depending on some unknown amount of recent driving history and varying if heater/AC are on/off. And, it can mysteriously drop if auto-defog kicks in. I've disabled auto-defog at least once (via menus), only to have it mysteriously turn itself back on at some unknown times. In short, it's completely useless for determining battery capacity.

Kona and Niro Electric in the US are CARB compliance cars with (IIRC) tiny sales. And, they haven't been out long either:
https://insideevs.com/news/342849/the-first-hyundai-kona-electric-delivered-in-us/
https://ride.tech/electric-and-hybrid/u-s-deliveries-quietly-begin-for-kias-239-mile-niro-ev/ - if this is right.

And, for awhlie, Kona Electric had some crazy markups by dealers.
 
I didnt know that GM blocked it on the newer Bolts. Interesting decision. Ignorance is bliss?

Can't you determine usable capacity by driving it down to 0 and see power used? (Though that is a pain in the ass)
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
Can't you determine usable capacity by driving it down to 0 and see power used? (Though that is a pain in the ass)
Yep. The large LCD will tell you how many kWh since last "full" charge, which has some quirks.

Example:
Let's say I'm at 70% SoC and I turn down target charge level to 60% (there are no numerical markings but from the projected GOM update on the big LCD and spacing of blocks, we can infer 5% increments), now I have a "full" charge and IIRC, the distance and kWh get reset to 0, since I'm now "full". I forget if you have to plug in (which won't charge at that point) to trigger a reset.
 
cwerdna said:
DougWantsALeaf said:
Can't you determine usable capacity
Yep. The large LCD will tell you how many kWh since last "full" charge, which has some quirks.
This sounds like the LEAF instrumentation. An owner can calculate 100 * (delta_kWh/delta_SoC)
Neither 'full charge' or 'empty' is needed.

Not that the vast majority would, only that it is possible.
So much for knowing how the Bolt fleet battery is fairing.
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
Do either of you use Teslfi? If so, what does the app show you in terms of where your cars are in the spectrum for your age/mileage?

Here is my TeslaFi "fleet" report:
Annotation-2020-08-25-094139.png


As you can see the "fleet" is pretty small. Only 70 vehicles in it for my Model 3 variant and mileage. Plus it's technically in "beta".

The starting mileage for the fleet is 312.59, while the ending mileage is 306.88. That's a 1.8% capacity loss.

Maybe the SR+ is noisier because it's a newer vehicle and in that early dropoff zone. Or, the user that posted that anecdote himself has a high mileage that reduces the size of their "fleet". The fleet is determined from vehicles that are at that particular mileage when the charge estimate was calculated. As you move your mouse across the graph, it shows how many vehicles are in your "fleet" at that odo reading. Mine peaks at about 116 vehicles at about 10K miles and tails off to 70 at my current odo. I suppose that's a reasonable way to do it, but with low numbers of cars participating, the statistics could get a bit "iffy".
 
lpickup said:
DougWantsALeaf said:
Do either of you use Teslfi? If so, what does the app show you in terms of where your cars are in the spectrum for your age/mileage?
Here is my TeslaFi "fleet" report:
The average matches other datasets although I don't see the typical early drop followed by a much shallower degradation rate. As you say though, perhaps more cars will be the difference.

1.8% loss by 24k miles is very reassuring that the 2170 battery chemistry is living up to its high expectations. Musk has said that the pack is good for 500,000 miles. If that statement is based on 30% degradation until EOL it works out to 1% loss every 17k miles, a target within easy reach if degradation slows down after the first year as anticipated.

I'm not going to use this battery for V2G or even V2H, but I am confident that my pack will easily outlive the car.
 
True, the early drop-off is certainly not evident here, but part of the problem may be with how TeslaFi collects that data, including the fact that people that don't sign up for TeslaFi and start tracking until 6-12 months into their ownership won't really accurately be reflected in the data (only their later measurements will be counted). Add in the fact that early buyers of this variant started out with a range of 310, which was later increased to 325, and it kind of messes up the data as well.

Regardless, the degradation is nowhere near what I saw in my LEAF, where you expected 15% degradation after a few years before it started to level off a bit! We are in an entirely different realm of degradation here.
 
lpickup said:
Regardless, the degradation is nowhere near what I saw in my LEAF, where you expected 15% degradation after a few years before it started to level off a bit! We are in an entirely different realm of degradation here.

Why gee, the whole battery business is getting better. Who would have expected that?
 
I would make the case in nearly every "new ev" where range is over 200 miles, the battery useful life will generally outlast the owner's desire to own the car. Focus is turning to style, comfort, feel, other more subjective preferences.
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
I would make the case in nearly every "new ev" where range is over 200 miles, the battery useful life will generally outlast the owner's desire to own the car. Focus is turning to style, comfort, feel, other more subjective preferences.
If 'useful life' is 65-70% capacity of new, then I do not agree with your guess. I mean that a battery range that started out at 250 miles and has dropped to 170 miles will easily be reason by itself to replace the car.
 
SageBrush said:
DougWantsALeaf said:
I would make the case in nearly every "new ev" where range is over 200 miles, the battery useful life will generally outlast the owner's desire to own the car. Focus is turning to style, comfort, feel, other more subjective preferences.
If 'useful life' is 65-70% capacity of new, then I do not agree with your guess. I mean that a battery range that started out at 250 miles and has dropped to 170 miles will easily be reason by itself to replace the car.

That in itself will improve the used market though. Poorer people need to be able to afford EV’s with a couple hundred kilometers of all season range. As the technology improves there will be more 7000 dollar used EV’s that fit that category, and that, in my opinion will be a turning point for the mass conversion to EV’s.
 
webeleafowners said:
That in itself will improve the used market though. Poorer people need to be able to afford EV’s with a couple hundred kilometers of all season range. As the technology improves there will be more 7000 dollar used EV’s that fit that category, and that, in my opinion will be a turning point for the mass conversion to EV’s.
I'll pin a huge 'maybe' pin on your scenario.
Degradation does not stop at 'EOL', and I'll hazard a guess that ongoing battery degradation concern correlates with socio-economic class.
 
SageBrush said:
webeleafowners said:
That in itself will improve the used market though. Poorer people need to be able to afford EV’s with a couple hundred kilometers of all season range. As the technology improves there will be more 7000 dollar used EV’s that fit that category, and that, in my opinion will be a turning point for the mass conversion to EV’s.
I'll pin a huge 'maybe' pin on your scenario.
Degradation does not stop at 'EOL', and I'll hazard a guess that ongoing battery degradation concern correlates with socio-economic class.

Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.
 
Model 3 owners. Any concern (though this will be a risk over time with every car) with hacking/mis-association

https://insideevs.com/news/440831/chinese-tesla-owner-five-european-cars-app/
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
webeleafowners said:
That in itself will improve the used market though. Poorer people need to be able to afford EV’s with a couple hundred kilometers of all season range. As the technology improves there will be more 7000 dollar used EV’s that fit that category, and that, in my opinion will be a turning point for the mass conversion to EV’s.
I'll pin a huge 'maybe' pin on your scenario.
Degradation does not stop at 'EOL', and I'll hazard a guess that ongoing battery degradation concern correlates with socio-economic class.

Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.


You did see where the average age of the U.S. LDV fleet is now 11.9 years, with 1/4 of them 16 years or more. Whether or not one individual owns a car through its life, it's clear that cars need to remain viable for any usage the owners might want to take for 15 years or more if that car is to be seen as useful.

Or do you believe there's a big used market for cars with 24 or at best 30 kWh LEAF range here?As the people who need to buy used cars tend to be unable to afford multiple ones for specialized purposes, that seems unlikely to me. But then you were claiming that range isn't compelling, and I (and Elon, among others) obviously differ with you on that.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.


You did see where the average age of the U.S. LDV fleet is now 11.9 years, with 1/4 of them 16 years or more. Whether or not one individual owns a car through its life, it's clear that cars need to remain viable for any usage the owners might want to take for 15 years or more if that car is to be seen as useful.

That is an amusing statement. Old cars just are not as good and new cars. They break down more, they burn more gas (and oil), they pollute more, they don't drive as nicely, they are less safe at higher speeds, and various systems might no longer function. AC broke? Open the windows. Advertised as "it runs". That's why they are cheaper.

Electric cars are not going to age exactly the same way as gas cars have. More than likely will run trouble free until they just die.

Range will decrease, but many elderly and/or poor people don't travel all that much. My Grandfather never left the small town in Kansas he lived in during the last decades of his life. Visit all the corners of the town, and that would be under 10 miles. Grocery, pharmacy, friends, church, and hospital. I don't have a log, of course, but doubt if he drove more than 4 miles in any day.

My sister-in-law lives in a small town in New England. Longest trip she has taken in the past decade was to visit her mom in the hospital. About 40 miles one way. Very unlikely to take a longer trip. Unless her husband dies, she can't be away from home for more than a few hours. He doesn't leave home, unless to go to doctor or hospital.

Many people, IF ELECTRIC CARS WERE COMMON, would be happy with a quarter of the range of a 2020 Model 3LR. If cheap to buy and reliable.

GRA said:
Or do you believe there's a big used market for cars with 24 or at best 30 kWh LEAF range here?As the people who need to buy used cars tend to be unable to afford multiple ones for specialized purposes, that seems unlikely to me. But then you were claiming that range isn't compelling, and I (and Elon, among others) obviously differ with you on that.

Depends of the future, doesn't it? And the future isn't like the past, but sometimes it rhymes.

Consider the past, and the current market for ICE cars.


First owner often owns for 3-6 years, perhaps 60,000 to 100,000 miles. Then sells it for something new, or returns it at end of lease.

Second owner often owns it until 8 to 12 years, and sells it as it still has some value and is starting to get expensive to maintain.

Third owner drives it until it breaks, or needs an expensive repair soon, or serious rust, or ...

Fourth owner can't afford anything better, and "it runs". Until it doesn't.

So how do used electric cars play out? Oh, not now, in 40 years. Might it rhyme that?

Electric car of the future, with a battery that might give 1,000,000 miles, or only 300,000 if passively cooled? How might that play out over the life of a car? Other parts of the car are likely to fail first, even if passively cooled. If the wheels fall off, the value of the car might be the salvage value of the battery.
 
That teslifi, compared pretty close to a couple others I have seen.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BCrnsnmOey8fCvwQ6pQhO_K0ckar5C9Z/view?usp=drivesdk

So given the wider population and teslafi, I think the Tesla forum must be a substantial part of the outlier group. Or the Amazon effect if you will.

I am curious what goes wrong with the outliers given how well most of the batteries do for Tesla now.

I think we are so bruised in the Leaf community, where 10% of loss over 3 years feels good, that its kind of the opposite on the Telsa side.

In terms of electric car life, I think cars will continue to get 10 years of great life, 3-5 years of secondary life, and then the hardware will be so out of date safety wise, they need to come off the road.
 
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