Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

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GRA said:
The above is one of the reasons I'm not in favor of large subsidies for PHEVs. We wanem to cost enough extra vs. ICEs that the relatively small
% of car buyers who think about TCO won't be able to conclude that they can come out ahead just because of the subsidies.
Click to expand...

The above is really only true in Europe, in Wisconsin the first year title+ license can be an extra $450 compared to a normal car. (Depending on your county)

Considering my little Honda only burned $200 of gas last year anyone looking at TCO could easily conclude it’s not worth PHEV long term based on taxes alone (Which are slated to go even higher), add in The additional insurance Costs and it’s a deal breaker.

Though this is the same issue with a BEV, when your only driving 5000 miles a year it’s really not worth the extra taxes compared to the $27 a Versa would pay in annual gas tax.

I really don’t think we much have to worry about PHEVs taking over the universe when 45 of the 50 states have under 5000 of the PHEVs on the road
 
In my view, additional points to consider:

- Some of the established automakers have turned to PHEVs as a transitional tech in some of their high-dollar vehicles. I have seen this as them being willing to ease into some EV tech, but kind of hanging on to the past.

- As time passes, and battery tech improves, it's no longer a big deal for the EV only range on a PHEV to expand to 30, 40, 50+ miles. Maybe we'll even start seeing them with 100+ miles range (eg: what might be called an EREV, but whatever the acronym, it has both pluggability and EV only ability and another separate energy system). As the batteries get bigger, it is logical in some of them to ask about whether they would come with DCFC.
 
jlsoaz said:
As the batteries get bigger, it is logical in some of them to ask about whether they would come with DCFC.
Click to expand...
Off the top of my head, the only two PHEVs shipping in the US that come with DC FC inlet are the i3 REx and the Outlander PHEV. JDM Prius Prime has CHAdeMO but not the US version.

And, Mitsubishi in markets like Japan had been pushing Outlander PHEV as part of a V2H solution (https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=29000&p=571131&hilit=dendo#p571131).
 
rmay635703 said:
GRA said:
The above is one of the reasons I'm not in favor of large subsidies for PHEVs. We wanem to cost enough extra vs. ICEs that the relatively small
% of car buyers who think about TCO won't be able to conclude that they can come out ahead just because of the subsidies.
Click to expand...

The above is really only true in Europe, in Wisconsin the first year title+ license can be an extra $450 compared to a normal car. (Depending on your county)

Considering my little Honda only burned $200 of gas last year anyone looking at TCO could easily conclude it’s not worth PHEV long term based on taxes alone (Which are slated to go even higher), add in The additional insurance Costs and it’s a deal breaker. <Snip>
Click to expand...


There are plenty of places in the U.S. too where the upfront cost of a PHEV version, including all subsidies, is less than the cost of an HEV version sans same. Not sure if there are any cases where that holds true yet for PHEV vs. ICE version of the same car.

Of course, as far as the fed. tax credit goes, many mass market buyers don't have enough tax liability to qualify for the full $7,500 in any case, so that's another incentive for them to buy a PHEV with a pack smaller than 16 kWh, or else lease if the dealer passes on the whole amount. Basing the credit on the pack size rather than the AER was a mistake, although without capacity warranties it did give companies some reason to oversize the pack and limit the SoC range, e.g. Volt.
 
rmay635703 said:
GRA said:
.... in Wisconsin the first year title+ license can be an extra $450 compared to a normal car. (Depending on your county)

Considering my little Honda only burned $200 of gas last year anyone looking at TCO could easily conclude it’s not worth PHEV long term based on taxes alone (Which are slated to go even higher), add in The additional insurance Costs and it’s a deal breaker.

Though this is the same issue with a BEV, when your only driving 5000 miles a year it’s really not worth the extra taxes compared to the $27 a Versa would pay in annual gas tax.....
Click to expand...
So are you saying the tabs are extra for a PHEV in WI, above it probably being a more expensive car? $450 extra is crazy, in MN I have the privilege of paying probably double the road tax an ICE driver pays, driving the mileage I do. True it's only a $70 surcharge but like you I figured out how much state gas tax I'd pay on something like a Versa and the $70 surcharge was double that! This is one of the reasons I'm thinking of a PHEV for my next vehicle as so far we don't have a PHEV surcharge, thats just for EVs.
Click to expand...
 
rmay635703 said:
The above is really only true in Europe
Click to expand...
Not just wrong, way wrong
The US federal credit alone flips the PHEV to below hybrid pricing, and this does not yet include state tax credits and all the other perks that PHEV purchases receive.

uc
 
cwerdna said:
jlsoaz said:
As the batteries get bigger, it is logical in some of them to ask about whether they would come with DCFC.
Click to expand...
Off the top of my head, the only two PHEVs shipping in the US that come with DC FC inlet are the i3 REx and the Outlander PHEV. JDM Prius Prime has CHAdeMO but not the US version.
Click to expand...

ok, cool. At a quick look around, the Karma Revero also seems to have DCQC (I am just going by wikipedia, it seems hard to get the info on their page). I suppose there could be others, but the point is that as it becomes easier to include a decent-sized battery with a PHEV, perhaps DCQC will become more the norm, for some of them, especially if they are skewed toward BEV such as in the i3 REx.

cwerdna said:
And, Mitsubishi in markets like Japan had been pushing Outlander PHEV as part of a V2H solution (https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=29000&p=571131&hilit=dendo#p571131).
Click to expand...

interesting, I wonder how that will work out.
 
rmay635703 said:
I really don’t think we much have to worry about PHEVs taking over the universe when 45 of the 50 states have under 5000 of the things on the road
Click to expand...
Which vehicle(s) are you talking about?
 
jlsoaz said:
ok, cool. At a quick look around, the Karma Revero also seems to have DCQC (I am just going by wikipedia, it seems hard to get the info on their page).
Click to expand...
TIL. Yes, it appears you can DC FC one. It doesn't have much AER per https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=42291&id=41978 though and it seems super expensive.

I didn't realize it was actually shipping. I've never seen one anywhere. And, the Fisker Karma that it was based upon wasn't particularly good for its time.

One wonders if these guys will fold or if they'll be able to survive due to Chinese sales.
 
jlsoaz said:
the point is that as it becomes easier to include a decent-sized battery with a PHEV, perhaps DCQC will become more the norm, for some of them, especially if they are skewed toward BEV such as in the i3 REx.
Click to expand...
Possible, but I really, really doubt it.
PHEVs exist for two reasons from the manufacturer side of things: inadequate battery supply, or expensive battery.

I get the impression that the ICE parts are about $4,000 (anybody know more details ?). If that is true and manufacturer marginal cost for battery is $100/kWh (if not now, then soon) that is 40 kWh extra battery or an ICE. An EV has so many advantages over a PHEV/ICE for the manufacturer and customer that I don't think this is really much of a question when price parity is reached. And of course the EV is riding the technology price curve down while the ICE part is being pushed up the regulatory price curve up. ICE R&D is a stranded asset.
 
SageBrush said:
rmay635703 said:
The above is really only true in Europe
Click to expand...
Not just wrong, way wrong
The US federal credit alone flips the PHEV to below hybrid pricing, and this does not yet include state tax credits and all the other perks that PHEV purchases receive.

uc
Click to expand...
Touché
So it’s below hybrid pricing until you pay back the tax 10 years?

Our state is stating it needs to move plug in vehicle fees to $1000 Due to losses and there are zero state subsidies

The Current $555 title + license on a plug in hybrid Is bad enough
The $665 title + license on a Bev is worse and they want to increase it even more.

I really don’t see how you can remotely compare a situation where you
1. Get a subsidy On purchase
2. Get lower taxes every year (compared to ice)
3. Charging infrastructure exists.

To the patchwork setup in the us where
1. You may get a subsidy (Most states have none)
2. You pay an increasing and uncertain tax amount Annually depending on where you are located and the political wind of the day. (Compared to the cheaper ice rates)
3. There is zero charging infrastructure if you live in the wrong place

I would say the two situations arent remotely comparable unless you live in exactly the right place, Wisconsin has under 3500 plug in vehicles out of 6.5 million ICE and I can understand why
 
SageBrush said:
rmay635703 said:
Our state
Click to expand...
Do not conflate *your* state with the rest of the world outside Europe
Click to expand...

My state Policy wise is similar to 20 other ones And 45 of the 50 states have fewer than 10000 plug ins (PHEV+Bev) on the road.

If I got a State subsidy Or even charging infrastructure and then had to pay it back in registration taxes I could somewhat understand but in most areas of the US this isn’t how it works especially on a used vehicle.

You must live in the 10% of states that are different I guess you shouldn’t confuse CARB with the rest of the country, just as I shouldn’t confuse Wisconsin with the 5 states following carb like policies.
 
I think plug in hybrids will be looking lasting.
They are perfect for people who only want to have 1 car, would like an electric but an electric would only cover 90% of their needs.

If I still lived in maine I wouldn't have a leaf. The long winters would kill too much range for too much of the year, needing to run the defrost most of the year would eat up too much range.
It would be plug in hybrid for me for sure.

No one gives a damn about what Europe is doing. For thousands of years they killed each other for sport and they're supposed to be the authority on whatever is declared righteous. Ha!
 
rmay635703 said:
My state Policy wise
Click to expand...
That may be true -- I have not checked. But this is all about the AMOUNT of the extra fees. I'll take your word for it that your state has high fees. How many states are at your state fee amount of higher, and do not have offsetting tax credits or other perks ?

I get that you want to complain about your state
 
jlsoaz said:
cwerdna said:
jlsoaz said:
As the batteries get bigger, it is logical in some of them to ask about whether they would come with DCFC.
Click to expand...
Off the top of my head, the only two PHEVs shipping in the US that come with DC FC inlet are the i3 REx and the Outlander PHEV. JDM Prius Prime has CHAdeMO but not the US version.
Click to expand...

ok, cool. At a quick look around, the Karma Revero also seems to have DCQC (I am just going by wikipedia, it seems hard to get the info on their page). I suppose there could be others, but the point is that as it becomes easier to include a decent-sized battery with a PHEV, perhaps DCQC will become more the norm, for some of them, especially if they are skewed toward BEV such as in the i3 REx.

cwerdna said:
And, Mitsubishi in markets like Japan had been pushing Outlander PHEV as part of a V2H solution (https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=29000&p=571131&hilit=dendo#p571131).
Click to expand...

interesting, I wonder how that will work out.
Click to expand...
FWIW, I came across a LinkedIn post by Toyota at https://www.linkedin.com/posts/toyota_toyota-p2pelectricitytrading-electrifiedvehicles-activity-6734333981602529280-2rQQ that points to https://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/partner_robot/news/20201113_01.html. It looks like they were doing some experiment involving V2G/V2H with Prius Primes, in Japan, of course.
 
GCC:
T&E study finds plug-in hybrids show higher CO2 emissions than claimed
Click to expand...

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/11/20201124-te.html


Three of the most popular plug-in hybrids in 2020 all emitted more CO2 than advertised when tested in the real world, according to tests commissioned by European environmental NGO Transport & Environment (T&E). T&E said governments should therefore end the purchase subsidies and tax breaks for plug-in hybrids.

T&E has commissioned Emissions Analytics to test three of the most popular PHEVs sold in 2019: a BMW X5 (longest EV range PHEV available), a Volvo XC60 and the Mitsubishi Outlander. Among the findings:

The BMW X5, Volvo XC60 and Mitsubishi Outlander emitted 28-89% more CO2 than claimed when tested by Emissions Analytics on a fully charged battery in optimal conditions.

On an empty battery, they emitted three to eight times more than official values.

When driven in battery-charging mode, which could become more common as motorists charge up ahead of using electric mode in low-emissions zones, the PHEVs emitted three to 12 times more. . . .
Click to expand...


Rather than eliminating subsidies, I think they should either reduce them or make the tests reflect values closer to the real world. And if anyone's actually cheating, nail them ala' VW.
 
I'm really frustrated that, year after year and decade after decade, we continue to hear virtually nothing about any possibility of a widely-available zero-carbon drop-in replacement for gasoline and for diesel. Sure, it would have helped if there had been higher carbon taxes on fuel here in the US, but how about somewhere in the world? And when?

Such a fuel would have changed the conversation around PHEVs. It might not have been enough to make PHEVs a winning proposition in a big way in a carbon-cleaned-up world of the future, and PHEVs still would have had all their disadvantages including their Rube Goldberg Device nature (by comparison to BEV) but it might have helped make them more competitive in the discussion, and it would help to make them more relevant for a longer period of time in fleets around the world.
 
I've been discussing PHFCEVs for quite a while now. Of course, zero-carbon bio- or synthetic liquid fuels would be the simplest option, but so far, although research continues, no one has been able to figure out how to produce then in the necessary quantities (if we also want to do frivolous things like eat), even assuming the price is affordable.

Apropos of H2, fortuitously this appeared on GCC today - like all lab results, the odds are against it ever being commercialized:
Researchers create hydrogen-producing living droplets
Click to expand...

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/11/20201126-xu.html


Researchers at the University of Bristol in the UK and Harbin Institute of Technology in China have built tiny droplet-based algal factories that produce hydrogen, instead of oxygen, when exposed to daylight in air. An open-access paper on their work is published in Nature Communications. . . .
Click to expand...


There are often similar articles on liquid bio- and synthetic fuel developments in labs, with the same chances of commercialization.
 

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