DougWantsALeaf
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Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
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Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:49 am

I would make the case in nearly every "new ev" where range is over 200 miles, the battery useful life will generally outlast the owner's desire to own the car. Focus is turning to style, comfort, feel, other more subjective preferences.
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

SageBrush
Posts: 5377
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:30 am

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:49 am
I would make the case in nearly every "new ev" where range is over 200 miles, the battery useful life will generally outlast the owner's desire to own the car. Focus is turning to style, comfort, feel, other more subjective preferences.
If 'useful life' is 65-70% capacity of new, then I do not agree with your guess. I mean that a battery range that started out at 250 miles and has dropped to 170 miles will easily be reason by itself to replace the car.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

webeleafowners
Posts: 1163
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Location: Okanagan Valley British Columbia

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:50 am

SageBrush wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:30 am
DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:49 am
I would make the case in nearly every "new ev" where range is over 200 miles, the battery useful life will generally outlast the owner's desire to own the car. Focus is turning to style, comfort, feel, other more subjective preferences.
If 'useful life' is 65-70% capacity of new, then I do not agree with your guess. I mean that a battery range that started out at 250 miles and has dropped to 170 miles will easily be reason by itself to replace the car.
That in itself will improve the used market though. Poorer people need to be able to afford EV’s with a couple hundred kilometers of all season range. As the technology improves there will be more 7000 dollar used EV’s that fit that category, and that, in my opinion will be a turning point for the mass conversion to EV’s.
2020 Model 3 Tesla. AWD with FSD. Deep metallic blue. Our daily driver.
2016 Nissan Leaf SV 30KWh Culis Red. Sold. Was my daily driver. Loved that car.
EV only Family...well except for the big diesel motorhome. :shock:

SageBrush
Posts: 5377
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:04 am

webeleafowners wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:50 am
That in itself will improve the used market though. Poorer people need to be able to afford EV’s with a couple hundred kilometers of all season range. As the technology improves there will be more 7000 dollar used EV’s that fit that category, and that, in my opinion will be a turning point for the mass conversion to EV’s.
I'll pin a huge 'maybe' pin on your scenario.
Degradation does not stop at 'EOL', and I'll hazard a guess that ongoing battery degradation concern correlates with socio-economic class.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 4055
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:03 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:04 am
webeleafowners wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:50 am
That in itself will improve the used market though. Poorer people need to be able to afford EV’s with a couple hundred kilometers of all season range. As the technology improves there will be more 7000 dollar used EV’s that fit that category, and that, in my opinion will be a turning point for the mass conversion to EV’s.
I'll pin a huge 'maybe' pin on your scenario.
Degradation does not stop at 'EOL', and I'll hazard a guess that ongoing battery degradation concern correlates with socio-economic class.
Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2194
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:55 pm

Model 3 owners. Any concern (though this will be a risk over time with every car) with hacking/mis-association

https://insideevs.com/news/440831/chine ... -cars-app/
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

SageBrush
Posts: 5377
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:02 pm

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:55 pm
Model 3 owners. Any concern
lol
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 12391
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:03 pm
SageBrush wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:04 am
webeleafowners wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:50 am
That in itself will improve the used market though. Poorer people need to be able to afford EV’s with a couple hundred kilometers of all season range. As the technology improves there will be more 7000 dollar used EV’s that fit that category, and that, in my opinion will be a turning point for the mass conversion to EV’s.
I'll pin a huge 'maybe' pin on your scenario.
Degradation does not stop at 'EOL', and I'll hazard a guess that ongoing battery degradation concern correlates with socio-economic class.
Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.

You did see where the average age of the U.S. LDV fleet is now 11.9 years, with 1/4 of them 16 years or more. Whether or not one individual owns a car through its life, it's clear that cars need to remain viable for any usage the owners might want to take for 15 years or more if that car is to be seen as useful.

Or do you believe there's a big used market for cars with 24 or at best 30 kWh LEAF range here?As the people who need to buy used cars tend to be unable to afford multiple ones for specialized purposes, that seems unlikely to me. But then you were claiming that range isn't compelling, and I (and Elon, among others) obviously differ with you on that.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:41 am

GRA wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:03 pm
Nor does usefulness. The average time someone owns a new car is much shorter than the average life of a car. And with a 500,000 mile battery, I'd guess high socio-economic class will eventually not give one single flying fork about taking care of the battery. After all, it will have little impact on the resale or end of lease. Year 8, 100,000 miles might matter to some fraction of those buying. Those of us that own cars for 10 to 12 years are a minority. Fewer still are those that might buy a new car and keep it for 500,000 miles.

You did see where the average age of the U.S. LDV fleet is now 11.9 years, with 1/4 of them 16 years or more. Whether or not one individual owns a car through its life, it's clear that cars need to remain viable for any usage the owners might want to take for 15 years or more if that car is to be seen as useful.
That is an amusing statement. Old cars just are not as good and new cars. They break down more, they burn more gas (and oil), they pollute more, they don't drive as nicely, they are less safe at higher speeds, and various systems might no longer function. AC broke? Open the windows. Advertised as "it runs". That's why they are cheaper.

Electric cars are not going to age exactly the same way as gas cars have. More than likely will run trouble free until they just die.

Range will decrease, but many elderly and/or poor people don't travel all that much. My Grandfather never left the small town in Kansas he lived in during the last decades of his life. Visit all the corners of the town, and that would be under 10 miles. Grocery, pharmacy, friends, church, and hospital. I don't have a log, of course, but doubt if he drove more than 4 miles in any day.

My sister-in-law lives in a small town in New England. Longest trip she has taken in the past decade was to visit her mom in the hospital. About 40 miles one way. Very unlikely to take a longer trip. Unless her husband dies, she can't be away from home for more than a few hours. He doesn't leave home, unless to go to doctor or hospital.

Many people, IF ELECTRIC CARS WERE COMMON, would be happy with a quarter of the range of a 2020 Model 3LR. If cheap to buy and reliable.
GRA wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:44 pm
Or do you believe there's a big used market for cars with 24 or at best 30 kWh LEAF range here?As the people who need to buy used cars tend to be unable to afford multiple ones for specialized purposes, that seems unlikely to me. But then you were claiming that range isn't compelling, and I (and Elon, among others) obviously differ with you on that.
Depends of the future, doesn't it? And the future isn't like the past, but sometimes it rhymes.

Consider the past, and the current market for ICE cars.


First owner often owns for 3-6 years, perhaps 60,000 to 100,000 miles. Then sells it for something new, or returns it at end of lease.

Second owner often owns it until 8 to 12 years, and sells it as it still has some value and is starting to get expensive to maintain.

Third owner drives it until it breaks, or needs an expensive repair soon, or serious rust, or ...

Fourth owner can't afford anything better, and "it runs". Until it doesn't.

So how do used electric cars play out? Oh, not now, in 40 years. Might it rhyme that?

Electric car of the future, with a battery that might give 1,000,000 miles, or only 300,000 if passively cooled? How might that play out over the life of a car? Other parts of the car are likely to fail first, even if passively cooled. If the wheels fall off, the value of the car might be the salvage value of the battery.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2194
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:46 am

That teslifi, compared pretty close to a couple others I have seen.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BCrnsn ... p=drivesdk

So given the wider population and teslafi, I think the Tesla forum must be a substantial part of the outlier group. Or the Amazon effect if you will.

I am curious what goes wrong with the outliers given how well most of the batteries do for Tesla now.

I think we are so bruised in the Leaf community, where 10% of loss over 3 years feels good, that its kind of the opposite on the Telsa side.

In terms of electric car life, I think cars will continue to get 10 years of great life, 3-5 years of secondary life, and then the hardware will be so out of date safety wise, they need to come off the road.
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

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