2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

NorCal dealer is going for 33,357: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d2077&distance=75&zip=94568&sourceContext=listingUpdate-PRICE-DROP-IT-LIKE-ITS-HOT-V3&newSince=1601526750387&sntEmlId=4913932486&source=email&type=listingUpdates&utm_source=listingUpdate&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PRICE_DROP_IT_LIKE_ITS_HOT_V3&utm_term=2020-10-02&linkSectionId=PriceDropListings&utm_content=listingPriceDropListingsViewDetailsCTA#listing=265862011

I really want to pull the trigger, but worry it might drop more. Last month, I almost bought at 36K but decide to wait a little bit. Lucky me

A new SL for 26k after fed rebate, pretty good!

DougWantsALeaf said:

A new SL for 26k after fed rebate, pretty good!

Click to expand...

Perhaps less if the CA state rebate is in play

Anything can happen... like missing out.

DougWantsALeaf said:

A new SL for 26k after fed rebate, pretty good!

Click to expand...

This is not just SL, but SL Plus, 220 miles range. I live in California, so it will be around 23K even after $10,300 from Fed, CA and PGE. I can't believe it, 45K car we can get at 23K. It looks very cheap on paper, but actually, if you look at the depreciation of the Leaf, is not that good. I know if I buy the SL Plus, I will lose almost 70% of its value after 3 years. This is the thing that is holding me back to buy the car. Actually, every EV has this problem with depreciation except the mighty Tesla. I don't like Tesla since it's expensive and no more tax break, but I do think sometime you might come out ahead in term of financial since their cars hold values very well.
I know everyone here doesn't like to drive ICE, I don't either. But I just sold my 12 years old ICE car with 150K+ miles for $12K. I bought around $28K in 2008. Talking about holding its value

queuetee said:

DougWantsALeaf said:

A new SL for 26k after fed rebate, pretty good!

Click to expand...

This is not just SL, but SL Plus, 220 miles range. I live in California, so it will be around 23K even after $10,300 from Fed, CA and PGE. I can't believe it, 45K car we can get at 23K. It looks very cheap on paper, but actually, if you look at the depreciation of the Leaf, is not that good. I know if I buy the SL Plus, I will lose almost 70% of its value after 3 years. This is the thing that is holding me back to buy the car. Actually, every EV has this problem with depreciation except the mighty Tesla. I don't like Tesla since it's expensive and no more tax break, but I do think sometime you might come out ahead in term of financial since their cars hold values very well.
I know everyone here doesn't like to drive ICE, I don't either. But I just sold my 12 years old ICE car with 150K+ miles for $12K. I bought around $28K in 2008. Talking about holding its value

Click to expand...

I am impressed you "know" this depreciation thing. Tell me; beyond that great resale value on that gasser, what was the difference in cost to run and maintain it over an EV?

I know this guy who sold a Mercedes for $20 K (was quite a while ago and that was HUGE money back then) bragging he only lost like $8,000 or something from what he paid for it. Problem was he didn't trust the local dealer for maintenance so went to German Cars Northwest. They always did a great job and their prices reflected it. He tried to blow off the costs as "just how cars are" but...

He had actually just sold the car less than a year after I had bought my 2004 Prius. After sales tax, etc. I paid $22K and change. Yeah, it was $19,999 base price with floor mats adding like $200 to it. (before you ask, no it wasn't Black) He thought that was hilarious. I averaged $100-$200 a year in maintenance during the time I had the car. He had no comment on that.

DaveinOlyWA said:

queuetee said:

DougWantsALeaf said:

A new SL for 26k after fed rebate, pretty good!

Click to expand...

This is not just SL, but SL Plus, 220 miles range. I live in California, so it will be around 23K even after $10,300 from Fed, CA and PGE. I can't believe it, 45K car we can get at 23K. It looks very cheap on paper, but actually, if you look at the depreciation of the Leaf, is not that good. I know if I buy the SL Plus, I will lose almost 70% of its value after 3 years. This is the thing that is holding me back to buy the car. Actually, every EV has this problem with depreciation except the mighty Tesla. I don't like Tesla since it's expensive and no more tax break, but I do think sometime you might come out ahead in term of financial since their cars hold values very well.
I know everyone here doesn't like to drive ICE, I don't either. But I just sold my 12 years old ICE car with 150K+ miles for $12K. I bought around $28K in 2008. Talking about holding its value

Click to expand...

I am impressed you "know" this depreciation thing. Tell me; beyond that great resale value on that gasser, what was the difference in cost to run and maintain it over an EV?

I know this guy who sold a Mercedes for $20 K (was quite a while ago and that was HUGE money back then) bragging he only lost like $8,000 or something from what he paid for it. Problem was he didn't trust the local dealer for maintenance so went to German Cars Northwest. They always did a great job and their prices reflected it. He tried to blow off the costs as "just how cars are" but...

He had actually just sold the car less than a year after I had bought my 2004 Prius. After sales tax, etc. I paid $22K and change. Yeah, it was $19,999 base price with floor mats adding like $200 to it. (before you ask, no it wasn't Black) He thought that was hilarious. I averaged $100-$200 a year in maintenance during the time I had the car. He had no comment on that.

Click to expand...

I admit am new to the Leaf, just want to buy one. But my friend, his 3 years old 2017 Leaf with low milages, got a quote from Carvana for 7K, that's big depreciation to me. I was not talking about the lifetime cost of ownership, I was talking after 3 years. I would assume every new car, the first 3 years maintenance is not that much, no? Let say you buy and you change car after 3 years, what is the cost of ownership of Lexus 45K vs Leaf 45K. Off course, the Leaf has tax incentives, but that offset the "expensive of battery". Admit it, in term of Luxury, the Leaf at $45K is not a Luxury car, it's $45K because is EV, whereas any ICE car with $45K range is purely Luxury car.

the one thing your depreciation calc misses is the fact that the old Leafs are 'short range' EVs, the Plus is a medium-longish range EV, which means it will depreciate a lot slower (at least looking at teslas, but that is not a great comparison)

otherwise, that is a hell of a deal!

In In June of 2018, I bought a standard range Leaf S for $16,350, after all the discounts and tax credits. It's MSRP was $33,350. Two years later, in the middle of a pandemic, I sold it for $18,500. I paid $15 in maintenance during those two years to rotate the tires. The first rotation was free. In January of 2020, I bought a new 2019 SV Plus for a little over $22k after rebates, discounts, and tax credits.

You can't go wrong buying a 2020 Leaf Plus (any level) with the available $18 - $22k discounts. Go for it!

mkwilkes said:

In In June of 2018, I bought a standard range Leaf S for $16,350, after all the discounts and tax credits. It's MSRP was $33,350. Two years later, in the middle of a pandemic, I sold it for $18,500. I paid $15 in maintenance during those two years to rotate the tires. The first rotation was free. In January of 2020, I bought a new 2019 SV Plus for a little over $22k after rebates, discounts, and tax credits.

You can't go wrong buying a 2020 Leaf Plus (any level) with the available $18 - $22k discounts. Go for it!

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Very good point, thx so much mkwiles.

queuetee said:

DaveinOlyWA said:

queuetee said:

This is not just SL, but SL Plus, 220 miles range. I live in California, so it will be around 23K even after $10,300 from Fed, CA and PGE. I can't believe it, 45K car we can get at 23K. It looks very cheap on paper, but actually, if you look at the depreciation of the Leaf, is not that good. I know if I buy the SL Plus, I will lose almost 70% of its value after 3 years. This is the thing that is holding me back to buy the car. Actually, every EV has this problem with depreciation except the mighty Tesla. I don't like Tesla since it's expensive and no more tax break, but I do think sometime you might come out ahead in term of financial since their cars hold values very well.
I know everyone here doesn't like to drive ICE, I don't either. But I just sold my 12 years old ICE car with 150K+ miles for $12K. I bought around $28K in 2008. Talking about holding its value

Click to expand...

I am impressed you "know" this depreciation thing. Tell me; beyond that great resale value on that gasser, what was the difference in cost to run and maintain it over an EV?

I know this guy who sold a Mercedes for $20 K (was quite a while ago and that was HUGE money back then) bragging he only lost like $8,000 or something from what he paid for it. Problem was he didn't trust the local dealer for maintenance so went to German Cars Northwest. They always did a great job and their prices reflected it. He tried to blow off the costs as "just how cars are" but...

He had actually just sold the car less than a year after I had bought my 2004 Prius. After sales tax, etc. I paid $22K and change. Yeah, it was $19,999 base price with floor mats adding like $200 to it. (before you ask, no it wasn't Black) He thought that was hilarious. I averaged $100-$200 a year in maintenance during the time I had the car. He had no comment on that.

Click to expand...

I admit am new to the Leaf, just want to buy one. But my friend, his 3 years old 2017 Leaf with low milages, got a quote from Carvana for 7K, that's big depreciation to me. I was not talking about the lifetime cost of ownership, I was talking after 3 years. I would assume every new car, the first 3 years maintenance is not that much, no? Let say you buy and you change car after 3 years, what is the cost of ownership of Lexus 45K vs Leaf 45K. Off course, the Leaf has tax incentives, but that offset the "expensive of battery". Admit it, in term of Luxury, the Leaf at $45K is not a Luxury car, it's $45K because is EV, whereas any ICE car with $45K range is purely Luxury car.

Click to expand...

We need a dose of reality when looking at depreciation. That 2017 has a 30 kwh pack and guess what? Even it was sold with 100% of its new capacity, it still would have been sold for cheap and why? Because 60 kwh and more is what is running around today. If used Bolts are selling for $15K, what would "you" pay for 30 kwh?

But the Plus is a 62 kwh pack which puts it into an entirely different league. It will see the same level of degradation when $30,000 EVs with 120 kwh packs are common place and guess what? You got time... a LOT of time.

But getting the best price is worth something but how much will it cost you to wait? How much lower will it go? $1,000? $2,000? You know there is a lower limit, a hard limit. I have to say, take it while you can.

DaveinOlyWA said:

I am impressed you [OP] "know" this depreciation thing.

Click to expand...

Not so much

He is not including the change in value of money (aka inflation) over 12 years.
E.g. the SS wage base has increased 35% in 12 years. If one cares to use that index then $28k in 2008 is 28*1.35 = $37.8 today. His ICE depreciated about 69%

Your point is well taken though: he should be adding up the costs of fuel, maintenance and repairs over those 12 years.

I don't know if the price will drop further but I do know that the day will come when someone else will buy the car.

Depreciation is only realized when you sell the car, so the trick is to keep it for at least 10 years, preferably longer After 10 years, pretty much any car you buy will have depreciated by 90%

If saving money is the end goal, buy an EV that's 3 years old (for example, a lease return), keep it for 10 years, then give it to your kid

SageBrush said:

DaveinOlyWA said:

I am impressed you [OP] "know" this depreciation thing.

Click to expand...

Not so much

He is not including the change in value of money (aka inflation) over 12 years.
E.g. the SS wage base has increased 35% in 12 years. If one cares to use that index then $28k in 2008 is 28*1.35 = $37.8 today. His ICE depreciated about 69%

Your point is well taken though: he should be adding up the costs of fuel, maintenance and repairs over those 12 years.

I don't know if the price will drop further but I do know that the day will come when someone else will buy the car.

Click to expand...

Again, I was pointing out the example of 3 years, who said you keep for 12 years.

alozzy said:

Depreciation is only realized when you sell the car, so the trick is to keep it for at least 10 years, preferably longer After 10 years, pretty much any car you buy will have depreciated by 90%

If saving money is the end goal, buy an EV that's 3 years old (for example, a lease return), keep it for 10 years, then give it to your kid

Click to expand...

Totally true, if you don't sell a car, you don't see depreciation. Totally true. But the argument here is for people who want to get a car, would you be patient to wait for 2 or 3 years to get the same car for 65% to 70% off? Is it worth the wait? It's an old car, but 2 or 3 years old with 70% off...

queuetee said:

What you are saying EV does not count for inflation, only for ICE car?

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No, I am saying that the inflation is different between two cars when they are held for different intervals and that depreciation has an inflation component.

Even morons should grasp that, but <<shrug>>

The great thing about being able to edit your posts is that you get to fix mistakes made in anger.

The key takeaway in all this is SEVERAL factors apply devaluation and the biggest by far is the advance of technology. The next biggest is availability. The German car guy I talked about. He got a lot more for his car because it was a rare model and it was immaculate. But his "basic" maintenance cost was well over $1,000 a year TWO decades ago.

So along with devaluation, you have the cost to maintain and operate. The LEAF dived in value because it was REV 1.0 Its no different than your 50 inch rear projection TV you paid $2500 for that you can't even give away 10 years later. Its not the TV's fault; the blame lies with the TV industry. Its innovation outran the lifespan of the TV.

Now this is the way of things but there is also simply age. I recently moved and had to buy a washer and dryer. Picked up a set that was 4 years old for $450 for the pair. By far the fanciest set I have ever owned. But its also the most effective, most efficient and quietest set I have ever owned. They were $1300 brand new. Here the technology hasn't advanced significantly but still huge depreciation which is strange for an appliance that should last 10-20 years.

But that is how it goes. Some is predictable, some is simply the fickleness of Americans and part of it was I likely got a good deal from desperate sellers.

One thing that is predictable is EV will devalue based on newer technology and longer range. The longer range will take a while to hit a price point that will affect the used EV market. There will be a saturation point which there are already signs of in parts of the country that pushes prices up and down but incentives is the major driver.

This is one of the reasons why Teslas hold their value better and everyone else doesn't. Notice Teslas bought earlier when they had incentives? They sell typically at a 70-80% loss. Its hard to sell a $40,000 EV at a decent price when new ones with very similar features can be bought for $27,000 after incentives.

its also why you can pick up a $90k+ 2012-14 model S for 25k now. Its tech is out of date.

Even early model 3s are starting to droop with all of the new longer range ev competition coming in and the model 3 itself getting cheaper. Its still doing better than most, but landscape and tech is changing quickly.