WetEV said:
GRA said:
Haven't you noticed that the well-off can afford multiple cars, many of which don't need to meet more practical requirements? Do you think ModelS/X/Taycans/Lucids/e-Trons etc. can sell enough to matter?
Ford didn't sell enough Model C cars or Model R cars to matter as well. Producing these cars and other early cars provided the technical, logistical, and organizational foundation that the Model T needed to launch.
There likely will never be "an electric Model T", of course, as too many companies are competing.
You really have no idea just how convenient a BEV really is in daily driving.
To be fair, that's true of 90%+ of the population. As surveys show.[/quote]
You make it sound as if it's a big mystery. It's convenient if you have convenient, dedicated charging and your daily range needs are within its capability. If not, not. I've said so many times. No secret handshake or initiation into Masonic rituals needed to figure that out.
WetEV said:
BEVs are getting both better and cheaper. I notice you didn't mention the Model 3, or the Bolt, or the ID4 or ...
Uh huh, and I've said so, as I've also said that they aren't yet good enough and cheap enough to be mass market. I've mentioned the Bolt repeatedly, including to you, and said that we need more BEVs priced like it and not like the Model 3 or the ID.4, while recognizing that the advent of the ID.4, Ionic 5, EV6 and other new AWD CUVs that are around $45k base moves the needle towards mass market pricing for the type of cars people want, while still being too expensive to
be mass market. The Model Y at $50k is worse.
[EDIT] I see in the Bolt topic the Q2 YoY sales are up 351%, to 11,263! Excellent. While some of that is undoubtedly due to people re-entering the market after bailing last year, it undoubtedly represents real, strong and hopefully sustainable growth. AFAIA the EUV isn't available yet, but that would also boost sales. We need a bunch of PEVs across the spectrum to have annual sales of at least 50 and better yet 100k, rather than a big bulge for Tesla and everyone else being 'other'.
I have a friend who tells me his 2002 CR-V is fading and he's interested in the ID.4, so I gave him some basic info re available subsidies, capacity warranties, degradation, lease vs. buy etc. and some possible BEV and PHEV alternatives to the ID.4, and told him to contact me if he wants more details. As he's retired, owns a detached, single family home and normally just takes weekend trips rather than the longer multi-day road trips I do he's an excellent candidate (to lease not buy, given he keeps cars he's bought as long as I do) a BEV rather than a PHEV.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Do give examples. I'm unaware of any mandates in Washington State. And BEV sales are doing just fine in Washington State.
As you should have been aware I wasn't talking abut the U.S.,
You claim to define the subject of the conversation for today? Really? I don't think so. So: Have any mandates for Washington State to share?
Washington State Passes Bill With Targeted 2030 ICE Vehicle Ban
https://fordauthority.com/2021/04/washington-state-passes-bill-with-targeted-2030-ice-vehicle-ban/
If a tech is seen to be so superior that everyone wants it, there's absolutely no need to ban the one its replacing.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
It also proves that to most people BEVs aren't yet superior (in ways they care about) to ICEs, as cars. Which is, after all, what they are both primarily required to serve as. BEVs are getting better, but still not good enough to compete head-to-head without one or more fingers (subsidies/mandates/perks) on the scale, except at the very high end that's unaffordable to almost all.
If BEVs are so superior, then there's no reason to have any fingers on the scale besides pollution/carbon taxes. Norway has found it necessary to go well beyond that.
So many errors in that it is hard to unpack.
BEV capabilities are not static.
People don't make decisions instantly.
Norway's incentives have been decreasing while sales of PEVs have been increasing.
Yet their subsidies and perks far beyond just taxing pollution, remain. Have you forgotten all of them; I posted all those a while back?
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
As has been pointed out to you repeatedly, EV sales growth is best modeled as exponential. It fits the curves of new technologies with less error than other models.
I suspect you don't understand what exponential growth is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
And yes, the real world is somewhat messy. 2018 was above the trend, 2020 was below the trend. At least so far, 2021 looks to be close to the trend.
I notice you once again pretended 2019 didn't exist.
Flaming BS.
Read more careful, and respond to my comments, not your silly strawman.
So tell us how 2019 U.S. sales followed an exponential
growth curve.
