WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Hydrogen has sold a few thousand cars with massive subsidies. If the same subsidies had been allocated to charging, far more DCQC stations would be available.
Sure, and if all the money allocated to DCFCs had been allocated elsewhere, one of the other techs would have profited. So what?
A more efficient use of resources, that's what. FCEVs don't get very good reviews, you should know. Hydrogen stations being down often make FCEVs being called driveway ornaments.
Depends on the FCEV, now doesn't it? The Mirai 2 got good reviews, as did the Nexo IIRR. the Clarity and Mirai 1, eh. What's needed is a compact AWD FC CUV. Station reliability (or often in California, station supply reliability) is still a problem, but that can and is being fixed.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
FCEVs are only starting to slide down the economy of scale curve that BEVs did several years ago. Toyota's increase of stack production capacity by 10x, from 3 to 30k annually, allowed them to drop the price of the Mirai Gen 2 by $9k despite its being a much nicer car than Gen 1. Another order of magnitude increase will allow further reduction. Hyundai's in the process of boosting their stack capacity to 100k annually.
Ah yes, getting better. So are BEVs. Cells in prototype production show twice the energy density of today's cells, at half or less cost, wider operational temperature range and more. FCEVs will have to run hard just to stay behind.
Behind? What's the cheapest 400 mile BEV priced at, because the Mirai 2's $50, 525 MSRP + dest. I see the cheapest Model S is now $94,990 MSRP. The 380 mile Nexo's $60,120 MSRP + dest., and it's last gen tech.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Spreading bets on technologies works when you don't know what will win. We know that hydrogen loses for at least decades into the future. So why bet on hydrogen?
You think you know that.
The most optimistic plans for green hydrogen show that hydrogen loses for personal transportation for at least decades into the future.. Almost all hydrogen today is produced from natural gas. Sure, today is some "green hydrogen" from landfill natural gas, or similar, and some "green hydrogen" from electrolysis at high cost.
Green H2 is predicted to be cost-competitive with gasoline by 2030, by DoE IIRR. Which is why increasing green H2 production and reducing cost is underway, as noted in articles I've posted in the H2 and FCEV topic.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Countries and companies developing BEVs, PH(FC)EVs, FCHEVs, and net-zero carbon syn-biofuels for ICEs have yet to reach that conclusion, which is why they continue to spread their bets and invest in all of the above techs.
Actually, the hydrogen bandwagon has seen a few drop-offs.
Uh huh, and more additions. Like batteries at a similar stage of development.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
BEVs have one niche we know they're excellently suited for now: routine local use inside their range, in moderate conditions where they return to the same guaranteed charging station every day. They are less suited for other uses that fossil-fueled ICEs currently provide, where flexibility, range, payload and extreme climates are issues, which is why the other techs are being developed. Maybe someday BEVs can do all the ICE jobs as well as ICEs can (with no resource constraints), but they obviously can't now, and we can't afford to wait for that uncertain future day when they might; we've got to de-carbonize all transport soonest.
Ah yes, the plea for a silver bullet.
More than half of driving matches the BEV niche right now. BEVs will have half the market before hydrogen gets started, if it ever does.
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Yet BEVs don't make up half the market, because customers demand that cars can also do the other half. Until that changes we need ZEV options that can do all the tasks customers require.
WetEV said:
Note that the Mars rovers (extreme climate!) are BEVs, not FCEVs.
Gee, using special, non-commercial batteries charged by solar panels and moving at a speed measured in a few inches per second. Yeah, that really matches customer car requirements here on earth. :roll:
WetEV said:
Extreme range trucking, aircraft and similar expensive and demanding niches are niches that hydrogen might fill. Let's limit this topic's discussion to personal transport.
As long as customers demand the ability to drive long-distances, no matter how rarely, and do so with flexibility and convenience that fast refueling provides, H2 in some form or other is one ZEV way to do that. BEVs can't yet, and may never.