2022 EV market speculation

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watchdoc

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It appears the mainstream EV market is gonna explode in 2022 with several mid range products scheduled to hit the market. They include:

Ioniq 5
BZ4x/Solterra
Aryia
F150 lightning

These are adding to the already HOT selling Mach E and ID4.

The only laggards seems to be the image tarnished Chevy Bolt, the overpriced Kia Nio, and the short range Mini Cooper and Mazda CX30

So what's gonna change in 2022???
-alot more inventory and choices
-Biden BBB plan should get passed in some form extending and enhancing EV tax rebates and increasing charging stations
-Ford to TRIPLE production of the Mach E for 2022
-VW Chattanooga ID4 production begins and with the $35,000 ID4 become a reality?
-Toyota gets serious about EV's and brings bland and reliable EV's to the world

So what does this mean for the Leaf??
I predict Leaf inventory will increase and incentives will return as Nissan battles to remain relevant in the EV market and focuses all the marketing on the Ayria
I also predict prices for used current generation Leafs will remain strong despite these discounts as the reality of buying other EV's in the 30 thousand range becomes more and more difficult.

What do you guys think??
 
If Nissan was smart (for the USA market), they would take the current Gen 2 Leaf and standardize some options for it and try to compete on price.

So far, it appears that going "big" works well for the 62 kWh battery pack. They should just drop the 40 kWh pack. You can DCFC at least once without creating a lot of heat and the standard range is bigger than the magic "200" number of miles, which for a daily driver car is everything someone is looking for in a replacement car for the family, kids, wife/husband, etc. Since everyone is giving ChaDeMo the boot in North American, switch them over to CCS for the QC. If you want to keep the trim levels, so one can pay more for a leather seats or better stereo, heated seating, etc. that's all cool. I think having pick a higher trim just to get the heat pump is silly, they should have enough volume in sales to just have it standard on all Leaf so the support and future maintenance of it is easier.
The Gen 2 Leaf looks more like a car now and less like an alien trying to get attention, so Nissan should aim to be the affordable (and reliable) EV for everyone. Critics can moan about the lack of TMS all day, but if the battery is big enough to not generate much heat in daily use and can survive daily use in Desert state(s) heat, then it should be able to compete on price alone.

There is no shame in selling the cheapest EV if it is also reliable and/or easy to fix with lots of spare parts accessible. What other car manufactures do selling an EV at a high price point, but at less volume, Nissan could match with a affordable price point, but a whole lot of volume. I think what they have in the Gen 2 Leaf works well, I'm sure a lot of tweaks could help, but so far, both my wife and I really enjoy our Gen 2 Leaf and other than nit-picks about the dash GUI, have almost nothing to complain about it after so many years of ownership and daily use.
 
I would be cautiously optimistic about Babb's prospects. With a very slim majority in the Senate and Manchin concerned about cost, there's a very real possibility of the bill failing. IL just passed a $4k incentive through 2026 and i think a few other states besides California have started offering incentives. (Maine comes to mind).

Hyundai's biggest disappointment is that they seem to have kept their roll out small and largely still to the compliance car states. (Originally wanted an Ioniq, settled on Leaf) and i still haven't seen the local Hyundai stock any EVs but we got the Kia Niro EV at the Kia.

I'm in favor of keeping the 40kwh battery, if only to keep the possibility of a price less than $30k out the door before other incentives. ($27,400 price becomes just under $30k after destination fee and paying $1500 or so for the charging cable.)

I think Nissan is just on cruise control with the leaf until they drop it and focusing everything on getting their slice of the pie in the lucrative crossover/SUV market which is a shame in some ways since the Leaf is probably the best value on the market for 2022 offering 150ish range for under $30k.

I think the most interesting piece for me is that both Ford and Toyota are projected to hit the 200k club and phase out of tax credits sometime next year with projected sales and I'm curious what if any effect that will have on the broader market. It hasn't seemed to affect Tesla, but in my mind they cater to a different crowd than the Joe Public buyer for the most part. I know Chevy offered a lot of incentives after the credit expired to prop up sales but i don't think it will be necessary for Ford with the Mach-E and F-150 models being able to sell fine on their own merits.

I might be a minority, but I would actually opt for a less preferred EV just to get the tax credit.
 
Right now, Bolt is still in stop sale. Production is down thru Feb 2022 (https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2021/12/16/gm-bolt-production-remain-down-through-february/8922439002/). It's unclear when the stop-sale new existing Bolts w/GM and dealers will be repaired.

Someone on chevybolt.org looks like they will be swapped into a repaired new Bolt, possibly a '22 that was produced when the plant went online briefly in Nov 2021 supposedly to produce mainly (?)/only(?) courtesy cars. This is highly unusual and the 1st I'd heard of.

The name is indeed tarnished and there's been also sorts of discussion/speculation as to whether the car's dead and will be discontinued...
 
knightmb said:
So far, it appears that going "big" works well for the 62 kWh battery pack. They should just drop the 40 kWh pack.
Current Leaf owners better hope they don't drop the 40 kWh pack! The fact that they are an exact (mechanical) replacement for the original 24 kWh pack can keep them on the road for years. To be honest, I don't think Nissan would drop it (yet) since it allows them to better compete (on price) at the low end.
 
Stanton said:
knightmb said:
So far, it appears that going "big" works well for the 62 kWh battery pack. They should just drop the 40 kWh pack.
Current Leaf owners better hope they don't drop the 40 kWh pack! The fact that they are an exact (mechanical) replacement for the original 24 kWh pack can keep them on the road for years. To be honest, I don't think Nissan would drop it (yet) since it allows them to better compete (on price) at the low end.

Agreed. And for those looking for a second EV, the Leaf 40 is an excellent choice. I could have leased a Plus - they even had a red one available - but the extra $100 a month just wasn't worth it to me. I can now buy another E-bike in the Spring, instead, and I'm happy with the range of my '21, just as I was with my '18.
 
Ditto. My long term plan is to put a 40kWh pack into my dad's 2013 SV. I have no idea where it will come from but that's still a few years out in the future so no rush at this point.
 
goldbrick said:
Ditto. My long term plan is to put a 40kWh pack into my dad's 2013 SV. I have no idea where it will come from but that's still a few years out in the future so no rush at this point.

I want the same thing for my family and friends, easy way to upgrade them, but at the same time, as prices for cells come down and the technology gets better, my hopes would be to put the 62 kWh packs in for the upgrades with hopefully some weight savings verse the current batch of 62 kWh packs they are using now. Kind of like how the 40 kWh packs make good upgrades for the 24 kWh but with better power density than before. I want Nissan to find a way to cram that 62 kWh pack into the current size of the 40 kWh pack. :)
 
LeftieBiker said:
As I wrote elsewhere, not really. It will be revisited in 2022. Promising to pass it this year was a mistake, given the two Blue Dogs in the Senate.

Ha, we're playing forum tag. I have pretty serious doubts of Machin coming around on it. WV isn't exactly bullish on EVs and that reflects in Machin - aside from his price tag concerns.
 
Joe Manchin was in the Senate when the bill was introduced. So was Kyrsten 'Used to be a Green, now I'm just Crazy' Sinema. The year on the calendar doesn't change that. I'm hoping that someone finds the skeletons in his and Sinema's closets...
 
In regards to the Ioniq 5, one of the dealers near me just called me. They wanted to let me know they had received my interest in the Ioniq plug in hybrid and had some in stock.

Mind you, I never expressed any interest in that vehicle. In what I imagine is no coincidence, only minutes before the call, I received an email from Hyundai saying they had transferred my Ioniq 5 reservation info to my closest dealer.

I'm not excited about how "well" their system is working. The dealer knew nothing about my $100 I5 reservation.


Oh, and that dealer has a 3k market adjustments on the Ioniq plugin. I guarantee I will not be paying a market adjustment.
 
gcrouse said:
Looks like BBB and the tax credit changes are dead for the foreseeable future.

It'll get passed before the midterms since the debt ceiling is out of the way for now. I expect the Dem's to do the limbo under Manchins 1.75 trillion bar and I expect the $4500 union EV bonus to go away.
 
watchdoc said:
gcrouse said:
Looks like BBB and the tax credit changes are dead for the foreseeable future.

It'll get passed before the midterms since the debt ceiling is out of the way for now. I expect the Dem's to do the limbo under Manchins 1.75 trillion bar and I expect the $4500 union EV bonus to go away.

I'm going to remain rather skeptical on that one, at least as it relates to the EV tax credits. That's the easiest one to cut since there's already a tax credit system in place that hasn't been exhausted except for 2 manufacturers. I'll give it 25% odds of passing in any form and 15% of passing with the EV credits.

A BBB bill that Machin might agree to pass is not necessarily one that the more liberal/progressive democrats would pass. Bang for buck and impact - other programs are going to get higher priority on staying in the legislation. Its a pretty easy argument to make that the investments in battery tech from DoE and charging station infrastructure build out from the other bill will be enough to encourage adoption as EVs trend towards price parity with ICE.
 
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