General EV sales topic

[OakLeaf]

Overall, even with the possibility of worse emissions in certain circumstances our ICE use is down significantly and certainly the overall emissions are net less than before (~400 gallons of gas use per year with the ICE vs ~50 gallons with the PHEV).

Your CO2 emissions are down to 1/8 what they were (50/400)
Criteria pollutants (Nox, Sox, CO) are almost certainly up, and up by quite a bit. That is what happens when you have repeating episodes of reheating the ICE.

My memory is a bit fuzzy since I haven't followed this matter since going all EV years ago but somewhere in the range of 90% of total criteria emissions (tailpipe, if you prefer) are exhausted in the EPA testing cycle during the ICE warm up phase.

I never thought about it when I owned an ICE, but nowadays I look at regular cars that spew poison into the air that we then all breathe and I cannot help but see it as insanity. And as for choosing a little convenience over a world that is headed towards AGW calamity ... no comment.

Good to know what the breakdown is, and where there could be room for improvements.

I understand and respect the desires and passion many have on the subject of AGW, but I'm afraid I can't get that excited about it. Maybe it's just a symptom of getting older, but I've been around long enough to have seen dire proclamations of how the planet was going to die due to a global ice age as well as AGW, then simply "climate change". Yes, there is some data behind all these claims, but mostly it has all been about money and power and I find it impossible to come to a real conclusion with these confounding factors.

The Earth has been here a long time. It will continue to be here long after we are gone. It will be just fine as we're just a blip on it's timeline.

As for the Humans, we will more likely first wipe each other out with either our nuclear or bio weapons or genetic tinkering. If we don't, then surely we'll find a way to adapt to whatever the weather happens to be, we're survivors. There is also a point to the observation that our response to adversity is what makes us better and who we are as a species today, so maybe it's not a bad thing to be doomed.

[SageBrush]

Maybe it's just a symptom of getting older, but I've been around long enough to have seen dire proclamations of how the planet was going to die due to a global ice age as well as AGW, then simply "climate change". Yes, there is some data behind all these claims, but mostly it has all been about money and power and I find it impossible to come to a real conclusion with these confounding factors.

The money is 99:1 one-sided -- in favor of the fossil fuel industries.
The science is not in dispute. If you are willing to get informed, read the IPCC report. The summary for policy makers is digestible by laypeople, while the data and analysis requires a background to read.

The propaganda meme from AGW denialists about ice age then GW is mostly a crock, but the history has a grain of truth that is mildly interesting. ONE academic postulated global cooling about 50 years ago based on industrial and vehicle emissions of particulates. The scenario was quickly refuted by the climate science community due to the emerging understanding of the scope of CO2 emissions that would counter and overwhelm the cooling effect of particulates. The important point here is that even in 1970 the basic science of global warming and cooling molecules was not in dispute, only the relative amount of pollution from each. I've read some of related U Wisc reports from then and I mostly take them as warnings against a diesel economy. They got that right.

Ironically enough, a few engineers and physicists still talk about engineering solutions for AGW. It amounts to dumping enough particulate pollution into the air to offset the CO2 effect. When solutions that equate to living in a garage filled with diesel exhaust are being bandied about, it should be a strong clue as to the severity of AGW.

[WetEV]

The Earth has been here a long time. It will continue to be here long after we are gone. It will be just fine as we're just a blip on it's timeline.

The Earth will here, but a lot of species of life might not be. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E ... tion_event

[LeftieBiker]

Yes, while the rocks, water, and some of the bacteria can survive AGW, if it goes into full 'Venus' mode there won't be anything alive here in a few centuries larger than a bacterium. So while the planet will still be here, saying that it will "die" isn't that much of an exaggeration. It would remain as a nearly lifeless ball of hot rock, with a water vapor-rich atmosphere and no oceans or even ponds on the surface.

[GRA]

Off-topic and I've mentioned it before, but Kim Stanley Robinson's most recent book "The Ministry for the Future" is one hard sci-fi vision of how AGCC and our response to it could play out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Minis ... the_Future

I've also read his Science in the Capital series, plus his Mars Trilogy, "2312" and "New York: 2140", all of which deal with climate in one way or another*; in the latter book NYC has turned into a larger version of Venice.


*The Mars Trilogy is about terraforming that planet.

[GRA]

Further on this story, via IEVS:

California: Plug-In Car Sales Up 37% In Q1 2022, Two Teslas At The Top

Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3 were the most popular cars, far ahead of other models.

https://insideevs.com/news/586690/calif ... es-2022q1/

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) reports that during the first quarter of 2022, the overall light-vehicle registrations in California amounted to 425,216 (down by 13.8% year-over-year).

The report begins with a list of issues: "Inflation has surged, interest rates are moving higher, gas prices have increased, and there’s a war in Europe", but at the same time it notes that not the lack of demand, but rather limited production holds the market down.

The most important thing for us is that the plug-in electric car sales remain strong with several monumental achievements.

Plug-in car registrations during the period increased by about 37% year-over-year to 73,138 (estimated), which translates into a record of 17.2% of the total market (compared to 10.8% a year ago and 12.8% average in 2021).

Another thing is that for the first time all-electric vehicles significantly outperformed conventional hybrids. A total of 62,082 BEV registrations (up 55%) stand for 14.6% of the total market (nearly 1 in 7 new vehicles).

Interestingly, plug-in hybrids and non-plug-in hybrids are down, respectively by 17% and 2% year-over-year.

Plug-in electric car registrations in California (est.) - Q1 2022
BEVs: 62,082 (up 55%, market share of 14.6%)
PHEVs: 11,056 (down 17%, market share of 2.6%)
Total plug-ins: 73,138 (up 37%, market share of 17.2%)
HEVs: 47,198 (down 2%, market share of 11.1%)
Total xEVs: 120,336 (up 18%, market share of 28.3%). . . .

Interestingly, the hydrogen fuel cell Toyota Mirai, probably for the first time, appeared in the Subcompact category, as #1 with 470 units and a 25.1% share.

No surprise that non-gas-burning car sales surged given California's gas prices, and I expect sales will increase even more in the second quarter, as per AAA the current average price of gas in the state is $6.061/gal.; in S.F. it's currently $6.298.

I've also noticed that I'm seeing a lot more Mirai 2s, either because there are more of them as noted above, I've gotten better at ID'ing them, or most likely both. I even saw two in a 30 minute span a couple of days ago. Easy to see the attraction when Toyota's providing $15k of fuel for 3 years (lease) or 6 years (buy). Buying would still be a big gamble - while H2 costs should come down significantly over that time, there's no guarantee how much or what gas costs will be like by then.

[cwerdna]

Ford CEO Sees Electric Vehicle Price War As EV Costs Decline
https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2022/06/01 ... s-decline/

[DougWantsALeaf]

The number of ev6s now showing up in Chicago dealers is pretty impressive.

[GRA]

J.D. Power: EV consideration in US is up but skepticism still exists

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/0 ... 7-jdp.html

Auto shoppers in America are more likely than ever before to consider buying a fully electric vehicle (EV), and new EV entries are responsible for much of the added consideration. These new entries, many from long-established vehicle manufacturers, are turning EV skeptics into likely EV considerers, according to the J.D. Power 2022 U.S. Electric Vehicle Consideration (EVC) Study.

The percentage of shoppers who say they are “very likely” to consider an EV for their next purchase or lease climbs to 24%, four percentage points higher than a year ago. Several factors are at work in prompting the increase, but the introduction of new electric models—some of which are in an important and largely untapped segment such as pickup trucks—is a primary reason for the increased consumer interest.

The addition of new EV models has moved the needle on consumer consideration In fact, several new models from perennial mass market brands are at the top of that consideration list. Even so, more remains to be done in terms of transitioning from early to mass adoption. Though the study findings show a shift in favor of EVs, about 76% of new-vehicle shoppers say they are not ‘very likely’ to consider buying one. With new EV model introductions coming at a rapid pace, automakers must continue their efforts to persuade more shoppers to give these vehicles a try.

—Stewart Stropp, senior director of automotive retail at J.D. Power

One hurdle to EV adoption revolves around shoppers' living and working situations. There is a substantially higher ratio of shoppers who own their home who say they are “very likely to consider” an EV (27%) than those who rent (17%). Not only are homeowners more affluent, on average, but are more likely to be able to charge an EV at their residence. Perhaps most tellingly, 34% of those who indicate they are unlikely to consider purchasing an EV say they lack access to any charging capabilities at home or work.

The study, now in its second year, finds that the more vehicle owners drive, the more they are likely to consider an EV. While daily commuters who are encountering higher fuel prices are logical candidates to switch to EVs, those who take frequent vacations and road trips might be assumed to be less likely to adopt EVs. But, like heavy commuters, heavy road-trippers have a higher EV purchase consideration tendency than those who use their vehicles less often for this purpose. It could be an indication that frequent drivers are increasingly seeing the advantages of EVs compared with their gasoline-powered counterparts. . . .

Echoing last year’s findings, the 2022 study reveals that firsthand experience with EVs plays an important role in purchase consideration. Only 11% of study respondents who had no personal experience at all with EVs say they are “very likely” to consider an EV. That percentage more than doubles to 24% among those new-vehicle shoppers who have simply been a passenger in an EV and rises to 34% among those who have driven an EV. Owners of EVs are also sold on the technology, as 48% of owners say they are “very likely” to consider another EV for their next vehicle purchase.

Following are key findings of the 2022 study:

EV consideration stronger among premium buyers: Since purchase price continues to play a prominent role in the vehicle purchase process, and because EVs often have higher price tags than their gas-powered counterparts, it is not unexpected that EVs are finding more favor among premium buyers than mass market buyers. Some 37% of premium vehicle owners indicate they are “very likely” to consider an EV for their next purchase vs. just 21% among those who currently own mass market vehicles.

EV consideration by owners of mass-market vehicles on the rise: Though premium vehicle owners remain more likely to consider EVs than owners of mass market vehicles, the owners of mass market vehicles increasingly register an interest in buying an EV. The year-over-year increase in those who say they are “very likely” to consider an EV is up six percentage points among owners of mass market vehicles and up one percentage point among owners of premium vehicles. This suggests some owners of mass market vehicles are receptive to more affordable EVs. . . .

EV consideration by geographic location: It is not unexpected that new-vehicle shoppers in the West region show the highest proclivity for EV purchase. Some 31% of those in the West say they are “very likely” to consider an EV. Surprisingly, the South (26%) tops the Northeast (22%) among those who say they are “very likely” to consider an EV. The North Central is at 22%.

Legacy automakers turn in strong showing: Owners of numerous mass market brands express an increased interest in EVs from a year ago. At the same time, owners of several premium brands, including Tesla, express somewhat less interest in making their next vehicle an EV.

Tesla remains a dominant player, but new-vehicle shoppers are proving quite willing to consider EVs from legacy brands.

—Stewart Stropp. . . .

And the biggest factor of all for increased interest now: California avg. price for regular today per AAA, $6.371.

Los Angeles, $6.395.
San Jose, $6.508.
San Francisco, $6.604.

If this level of prices persist until the 2023 Bolt/EUV arrive, GM can produce them quickly enough, and dealers can restrain themselves from slapping huge ADMs on them (very unlikely), I expect they'll be top sellers.

[GRA]

IEVS:

A Lost Quarter For Italy's EV Market: Will New Incentives Help?
After years of constant growth, electric mobility adoption lost steam, while traditional ICE models slumped to alarming levels.

https://insideevs.com/news/590580/italy ... t-q1-2022/

It’s been a bad start of the year for the Italian car market, as 2022 inherited crises that had been brewing since the covid pandemic. With an ongoing chip (and broader materials) shortage, policy uncertainties, inflation spiking and a war in Europe, among other things, car sales crashed, and electrified options also started suffering.

As Unrae statistics show, the first quarter of 2022 marked a watershed moment. After years of constant growth, electric mobility adoption lost steam, while traditional ICE models slumped to alarming levels.

Around 343,000 units were registered, down almost a quarter year-on-year (YoY) from the over 451,000 units sold a year before. Predictably, it is traditional powertrains that suffered the most. Petrol and diesel models reached 27% and 20.8% market share respectively (they were at 33% and 25.4% in Q1 2021), both down some 38% YoY in absolute numbers, a staggering fall. Plugless hybrids grew to 33.8% share (from 26.8% in the same quarter last year), while also declining slightly in overall sales YoY.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) reached 11,345 units for the quarter, a negative performance caused chiefly by the end of fiscal incentives in December, followed by prolonged government inaction. At -14.9% YoY (13,332 units in Q1 2021), this was a dramatic turn for the worse in Italy’s race to electric mobility, and a rather unique situation among the largest European auto markets, which are otherwise keeping up EV growth with stronger environmental policies and consumer interest.

Given the broader collapse of ICE sales, however, BEVs maintained their YoY relative growth in terms of market share, reaching 3.3% for Q1 (up from 3% last year). Under a more constructive government policy scenario, this result could have easily been twice as high.

Plug-in hybrids faired much better than BEVs, scoring 17,141 units for Q1, actually up 4.4% YoY. This could be considered a positive result in the current market, as it also helped PHEVs reach a 5% share for the quarter, up from 3.6% a year before. Transitional plug-in powertrains are indeed enjoying better success than full electrics under Italy’s present conditions, a balance that might stay unvaried in the mid term. Overall plug-in sales thus achieved an 8.3% market share, a slight improvement over the 6.6% recorded in Q1 2021, but far from the 9.3% full-year results of 2021.

As incentives disappeared, electric car sales inevitably adjusted accordingly. With no discounts in sight, and a market focused on low price tag models, BEV sales dwindled uniformly, with rare exceptions standing out. . . .

Is this situation going to change? As Italy’s government finally launched the new incentive scheme in mid-May, it is likely the Italian EV market will pick up the pace again quickly. The fiscal package has its pros and cons though. 3,000€ to 5,000€ for BEVs (the latter in case you scrap your old car), is still substantial but just half of the original policy it replaces. The price limit is now also lower, at 35,000€ plus taxes, no Teslas eligible here.

On the plus side, the new scheme is now in place for three years and will provide much-needed stability to car makers and customers. At the same time, increased competition and reduced reliance on incentives should speed up healthier, self-sustaining growth for electric car sales for the foreseeable future. The worst, one would hope, is now over.