GRA said:
WetEV said:
Mass market meaning 50% comes after 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 1%, 2%, 4%, 5.6% market share in Q2 2022, and so on.
Q2 new car sales in CA were over 16% PEV/FCEV, over 27% in the Bay Area. But then their avg. sale price was $66k. vs. an already well beyond mass market avg.price of $48k for ICEs. Good thing we've got all those people working in Silicon Valley and San Francisco who can afford them.
Suppose some new widget came out. Where do you think sales would rise first? Silicon Valley or Tie Siding, Wy?
GRA said:
Uh huh, which leaves us with forcing people to buy them if they don't need their needs.
A big assumption on your part, now isn't that? Or do you understand that only a small minority will find a BEV less attractive than an ICE?
As you seem to be part of that small minority, I'd guess you don't.
Consider that range has a cost, in a BEV, and doesn't in an ICE. If range is free, why not offer as much as almost anyone would want?
BEVs will win the high end first, as BMW, Audi, Rolls Royce, Cadillac and such would like to eat lunch. And not have to watch Tesla eat it in front of them. BEVs have basically already won this market slice. So move on the the very bottom end. Consider the following options, for an basic basic entry level transportation car.
- A basic ICE (range 600 miles) for say $15k. Oh, and gasoline, and oil changes and so on.
- A limited range (25kWh... 80 miles) basic BEV for say $11.2k.
Funds are limited. Less cash, less operating expense, but there is a trade-off of range... If the buyer doesn't absolutely need the range, then the BEV is the clear choice, correct? Why would anyone ever pick the ICE?
Even if some need for longer trips, the choice between cash now and needed to take a 10 minute stop every hour a few times a year is pretty clear, right? Cash now wins. Even if that's a 20 minute stop every hour of driving, like the LEAF.
Sure, need to have at home charging. Perhaps apartment parking lot charging. Perhaps curbside charging. Perhaps driveway charging. Or carport charging. Perhaps even garage charging.
Sure, battery prices need to fall to under $100 per kWh. I'm assuming $50 per kWh, likely not true until the supply chain for BEVs catches up... like in 2030 or so. Battery energy density is projected to double in this time period as well.
- A basic ICE (range 600 miles) for say $15k. Oh, and gasoline, and oil changes and so on.
- A longer range basic BEV (100kWh... 320 miles) for say $15k.
Funds are limited. Same upfront cash, less operating expense, but there is a trade-off of range. Now we are talking about roughly 4 hours of driving. Almost everyone has a lunch stop. Sure, an ICE might be just a little better on long trips, but very marginally so. On the other hand, the BEV wins big at home. Much more convenient, lower operational cost and just plain nicer to drive.
Why would anyone pick the ICE? Only if lots of long distance driving was planned, and very little short distance driving was planned. Like your driving pattern.
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Charging infrastructure is growing, as is the number of BEVs on the road. Will never be as dense as gas stations, different economics and user experience.
Of course it's growing, the issue is whether it's growing fast enough in the right places, and of the right types. Public charging infrastructure is key to mass market viability, especially for those people who'd get the greatest health benefit. See:
Advancing social policy is a herring. Not sure the color, but I recognize the smell. Basically is not relevant to the market choice between BEV vs ICE.