WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

GRA wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:44 pm
WetEV wrote: Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:19 am
Playing games with rebate rules isn't useful, just makes the rebate more complex. Your examples of the Bolt and Niro and Kona are more mid-priced than low priced.

To get most of the market, some EVs need to be selling for less than ICE. for example: the ICE Chevy Spark.

https://www.truecar.com/best-cars-trucks/cars/cheapest/

Currently about $15,000. Of which the gas power train is about $5000.

Suppose you could make an EV with $50/kWh batteries, likely before 2030. Add modest electric motor, inverter and such, how cheap could it get? No power mirrors and other options, just like the Spark. Passive cooling to minimize cost, Rest of car can be simpler as no engine to work around. Likely would be thousands less than the ICE.

Sure, not performance. Long trips wouldn't be easy.... But a Spark isn't exactly a performance car, and any long trip in a Spark would be a bother, at best.

Assuming that home or workplace charging is available at a realistic cost, the running expenses will be much less. Put yourself in the place of a lower income new car buyer in 2035 or so...why would you not buy the EV?
You wouldn't buy such an EV for the same reason most people won't buy a car now that can't meet all of their needs, even though they rarely and often never use their full capabilities. They want the peace of mind knowing that if they need a car to do something, it can. That's especially important for those who can't afford to specialize, but need one car to do it all. If cheap specialty BEVs for routine use were really desired, the Smart ED would have sold like a Model 3.
I'm fairly unlikely to buy an ICE Spark or anything similar, at this stage of life. Like everything in life, you can't always get what you want. A minimum price car is aimed more at needs than wants. I can afford a few wants, and my needs are somewhat more than minimum. I suggest that many people would find the Spark doesn't meet their needs or wants for that matter. The lowest end EV is not going to be identical to the lowest end ICE.

The Smart ED wasn't priced under the Spark, even after tax credits that a lower income person couldn't use. Too early for the technology for the low end, would have needed massive subsidies for piddly volumes. Pointless, until the technology is ready.

Even without EVs as technology drivers, the battery technology used for everything from cameras to cell phones to power backup systems to utility systems was and is getting better. Eventually the EVs would have taken off and dominated... just later, perhaps a decade or two. At the high end first, without subsidies. Hand built at first.


GRA wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:44 pm Personally, if we're going to subsidize cars I'd prefer even lower caps than I mentioned above: either a Soft cap of $30k or at most $35k, or a hard one of say $33 -$37.5k, decrementing annually or bi-annually as before. Of course I've been saying that for years, yet we still are giving rebates to individuals making less than $150k, when the U.S. median income this year is $44,225. To me that's ridiculous and obscene. No one making $150k is worrying about having a roof over their head or food on the table.
At sometime in the near future we need to stop subsidizing cars. Five years? Maybe. Notice that today's subsidy is more aimed at getting North American assembly (jobs) and friendly country materials (aka not China/Russia) than at electric cars.

At some point, a requiem for the subsidy will be needed.

In many ways the LEAF was the ideal starting electric car.

GRA wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:44 pm Just came across this at Clean Technica - I could have written it: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/10/14/we ... iance-car/
Amusing, to say the least.

Electric car market share is around 5.5%. As EVs have the largest advantage at the high end, automakers are looking at the top 10% of the market at best.

I know you would like a different reality, but we are in this one. Deal with it.
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

The reality I'm in is that ZEVs (incl. PHEVs) made up over 16% of new car sales in California in Q2, and over 27% in the Bay Area. Our high gas prices had a lot to do with that, but so did the increase in public charging sites, a couple of years of really bad air quality due to fires, and a more environmentally-concerned public. All this despite the fact that there are so few BEVs (with more PHEVs) priced at or below $30k before subsidies, which is where we need them to be to achieve mass-market viability, because most of them are aimed at the entry-level luxury or higher markets. We've had 12 years to make progress, and we've had a few companies showing that they can build basic BEVs that can (now) handle most of the job, albeit still nowhere near being full ICE replacements - only PHEVs can do that at the moment.

California's sales quotas should force companies to lower car prices, and since they can't get there yet via reduced battery costs, they'll have to do so via fewer added (and in most cases unnecessary) frills. The people who've just got to have a car with massaging seats, a panoramic roof and flush-mounted, power-extending door-handles can still order them if they want, but the government shouldn't be helping to pay for that - it's bad enough that they're having to help pay for the basic cars.

Oh, this just in:
2024 Cadillac Celestiq rises as $300,000 electric flagship
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... e-revealed


Yeah, that's really going to speed up the transition.

Related to improving access to lower income buyers, here and elsewhere (along with grid stability and storage costs), is the following: viewtopic.php?p=626479#p626479
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

GRA wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:45 pm The reality I'm in is that ZEVs (incl. PHEVs) made up over 16% of new car sales in California in Q2, and over 27% in the Bay Area. Our high gas prices had a lot to do with that, but so did the increase in public charging sites, a couple of years of really bad air quality due to fires, and a more environmentally-concerned public.
And a generally higher income population, especially in the Bay area. Odd that you didn't mention that.
GRA wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:45 pm All this despite the fact that there are so few BEVs (with more PHEVs) priced at or below $30k before subsidies, which is where we need them to be to achieve mass-market viability, because most of them are aimed at the entry-level luxury or higher markets. We've had 12 years to make progress, and we've had a few companies showing that they can build basic BEVs that can (now) handle most of the job, albeit still nowhere near being full ICE replacements - only PHEVs can do that at the moment.
"Mass market" can't happen today, or this week, or this year. There simply isn't enough production capacity.
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

WetEV wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:59 pm And a generally higher income population, especially in the Bay area. Odd that you didn't mention that.
On this note, https://www.kron4.com/news/real-estate/ ... es-report/ (Nearly 50 Bay Area zip codes make list of most expensive real estate in U.S. : Report) is from almost a year ago.

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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Back from a couple more house/pet-sits plus one last trip to the east side before the snow shut the passes (no BEVs I was interested in were available on Turo, so had to take the Forester).
WetEV wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:59 pm
GRA wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:45 pm The reality I'm in is that ZEVs (incl. PHEVs) made up over 16% of new car sales in California in Q2, and over 27% in the Bay Area. Our high gas prices had a lot to do with that, but so did the increase in public charging sites, a couple of years of really bad air quality due to fires, and a more environmentally-concerned public.
And a generally higher income population, especially in the Bay area. Odd that you didn't mention that.

I've mentioned it repeatedly in the past, including in exchanges with you. In order to move beyond the higher-income demographic, we have to get the prices down (see below).

WetEV wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:59 pm
GRA wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:45 pm All this despite the fact that there are so few BEVs (with more PHEVs) priced at or below $30k before subsidies, which is where we need them to be to achieve mass-market viability, because most of them are aimed at the entry-level luxury or higher markets. We've had 12 years to make progress, and we've had a few companies showing that they can build basic BEVs that can (now) handle most of the job, albeit still nowhere near being full ICE replacements - only PHEVs can do that at the moment.
"Mass market" can't happen today, or this week, or this year. There simply isn't enough production capacity.

Which is why I favor PHEVs for now, for price, number that can be produced given the limited battery supply, and all-around capability given the currently immature/inadequate charging infrastructure.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

GRA wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:52 pm
WetEV wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:59 pm "Mass market" can't happen today, or this week, or this year. There simply isn't enough production capacity.
Which is why I favor PHEVs for now, for price, number that can be produced given the limited battery supply, and all-around capability given the currently immature/inadequate charging infrastructure.
Nice simple statement. Wrong, but nice and simple. Oh, probably true for you, but not for most.

BEVs are the car of the future.

PHEVs are useful, if you fit the profile. The problem is the profile is fairly narrow. If you don't drive long trips a smaller battery BEV would be a better choice. If you don't drive enough short trips, a HEV would be a better choice. For the PHEV to make sense to the driver/owner, the mix of trips needs to be just right. Then add in the driver experience, where BEVs are just better than both ICE and PHEVs.

For you, I'd recommend a HEV for years to come. Cheaper to buy, easier to drive to odd corners of California. Someone has to, there are not enough BEVs.

PHEVs need the same home/work L1/L2 charging infrastructure as BEVs... unless mostly driven as an ICE. Which is what happens a lot with subsidized PHEVs. Unlike BEVs, PHEVs will likely always need subsidies and mandates. BEVs are just nicer cars, and a decade from now will also be cheaper.

PHEVs need no L3 charging, of course. So PHEVs are the car of the present for some people. Not for everyone.

The problem with BEVs is, while they are the car of the future, that they are not the car of the present for everyone.

EVs can't be the car of the present for everyone, there just are not enough EVs made. There can't be enough EVs made today.

There just are not enough batteries made. There can't be enough batteries made today..

There just isn't enough Lithium mined. While there can be enough Lithium mined, it will be years before that happens. And so on.

Sure, the Sodium ion battery might fix the last problem, but it will still be years, perhaps a decade before BEVs are most/all of the cars produced. And lots of things will change over that time, including cell chemistry. Change takes time, and this is a lot of change.


Consider the side effects of forcing everyone into PHEVs. For one, public DCQCs become uneconomic not just for years but for decades. Great if you want fossil fueled vehicles to survive, not so great otherwise. To be economic, charging networks need traffic. No more new BEVs, declining traffic. I'd rather see the gas stations with that problem.
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:04 am
GRA wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:52 pm
WetEV wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:59 pm "Mass market" can't happen today, or this week, or this year. There simply isn't enough production capacity.
Which is why I favor PHEVs for now, for price, number that can be produced given the limited battery supply, and all-around capability given the currently immature/inadequate charging infrastructure.
Nice simple statement. Wrong, but nice and simple. Oh, probably true for you, but not for most.

BEVs are the car of the future.

PHEVs are useful, if you fit the profile. The problem is the profile is fairly narrow. If you don't drive long trips a smaller battery BEV would be a better choice. If you don't drive enough short trips, a HEV would be a better choice. For the PHEV to make sense to the driver/owner, the mix of trips needs to be just right. Then add in the driver experience, where BEVs are just better than both ICE and PHEVs.
The profile is narrow??? Pre-pandemic, 76.4% of American commuters did so solo by car. The average round-trip commute is 41 miles. How is that a narrow profile for PHEVs? Even if you're limited to L1 at one end, 4-6 hours of L1 at 3-5 miles/kWh gives people enough range to do the commute one-way, maybe more in the most congested stop and go commutes with low speeds and lots of regen, which is also where the pollution is greatest and a reduction most necessary. 8-12 hours of L1 at one end and you can do the round trip. L1 at both ends or L2 at either and you can also do the whole commute on battery.

Even with L1 charging at only one end of the trip and ignoring opportunity L2 charging away from home or work, that's still at least 100 mi./week electrically, or 5,200 mi./year; at least 7,280 if you can also L1 charge both days of the weekend. That's a huge reduction in emissions, over half the annual miles driven by the average U.S driver. And far more people have access to L1 now than L2, and they don't need to spend money to upgrade to L2 to have a major impact on their emissions (and given current gas prices, also their fuel expenses).

While we have one or maybe two more generations of PHEVs, we of course continue full speed ahead building the charging/fueling infrastructure (as well as the manufacturing and resource extraction infrastructure) that will allow the transition to full ZEVs. Only super/mega-commuters need a BEV for commuting.

As for smaller battery BEVs, while they may make sense in theory for some who have multiple cars or who simply don't drive anywhere other than locally, in reality U.S. customers won't buy them in more than small numbers, which is why bar the holdover 40kWh LEAF all current BEVs sold here have 200+ miles of range, with 300+ desired. Small battery BEVs rather than PHEVs are the cars with a narrow profile here. See posts a few years up-topic, where I posted the results of several consumer surveys re range demanded by U.S. consumers.

WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:04 am For you, I'd recommend a HEV for years to come. Cheaper to buy, easier to drive to odd corners of California. Someone has to, there are not enough BEVs.
OT: We're not talking about me, we know my usage is atypical. That being said, even I could charge L1 at home, with some inconvenience. And while a PHEV may not make the best economic sense for me, it would still be worthwhile for me to have one if I needed to buy a new car now, as it would allow me to eliminate emissions in critical areas e.g. my neighborhood, natural areas, etc. As I don't have such a need at the moment, financially given current interest/lease rates the best course for me isn't an HEV now, it's to keep my ICE until I can get a ZEV of whatever tech meets my needs, renting whichever ZEVs interest me in the meantime whenever the charging infrastructure for a proposed trip allows it. Which is what I've been doing.

Back on topic:
WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:04 am PHEVs need the same home/work L1/L2 charging infrastructure as BEVs... unless mostly driven as an ICE. Which is what happens a lot with subsidized PHEVs. Unlike BEVs, PHEVs will likely always need subsidies and mandates. BEVs are just nicer cars, and a decade from now will also be cheaper.
As noted above, PHEVs don't need anything more than L1 at one end to have a major effect.

Currently, a gallon or regular at my closest gas station is only $5.10, down from $6.50 about 6 weeks ago. While California has the most expensive gas in the country, everyone's paying a lot more for gas than was the case since 2014, with prices having been and likely staying elevated for some time to come. Do you think most people who would pay extra for a PHEV vice HEV now would opt not to use electricity and just buy gas, given the option?

The main reasons some PHEVs weren't charged was due to bad incentives and perks. In the case of some PiPs, people bought them in California just for the SO HOV stickers, which I've never been in favor of as you get the greatest emissions reduction vs. an ICE when running on the battery in stop and go traffic, not when cruising at higher speeds. If we were to add a ZEV-only lane in addition to the HOV lane that might be acceptable, but you'd have to have a transponder for PHEVs to show that they were in fact running on the battery.

The fact that you really had to baby the PiP's accelerator to keep the ICE from turning on was another factor that led to people not bothering to charge it, along with its very limited AER, but modern PHEVs have much more robust electric capability. We can ban any that don't, which California has effectively done as far as range (by not subsidizing those with AER under 35 miles EPA City, increasing to 50 miles EPA by 2035, although as you know I'm against all direct to consumer car price subsidies), and could do the same in relation to accel and top speed if needed.

The other PHEVs that often weren't charged were company cars, where the owners were reimbursed for buying gasoline but not for electricity, so of course they ran on the ICE. That's easily fixable, preferably by not reimbursing them for gas - alternatively, by figuring out a way to reimburse them for electricity.

WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:04 am PHEVs need no L3 charging, of course. So PHEVs are the car of the present for some people. Not for everyone.

The problem with BEVs is, while they are the car of the future, that they are not the car of the present for everyone.

EVs can't be the car of the present for everyone, there just are not enough EVs made. There can't be enough EVs made today.

There just are not enough batteries made. There can't be enough batteries made today..

There just isn't enough Lithium mined. While there can be enough Lithium mined, it will be years before that happens. And so on.

Uh huh, now follow that to the logical conclusion. A 2023 Niro PHEV has an 11.1 kWh battery and an EPA Combined range of 33 miles, most or all of which will get used on a daily basis. A 2023 Niro (B)EV has a 64.8 kWh battery and an EPA range of 253 miles, most of which goes unused most of the time. 64.8 / 11.1 = 5.8+ Niro PHEV battery packs for every Niro BEV pack you don't build.

WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:04 am Sure, the Sodium ion battery might fix the last problem, but it will still be years, perhaps a decade before BEVs are most/all of the cars produced. And lots of things will change over that time, including cell chemistry. Change takes time, and this is a lot of change.

A specific cell chemistry is essentially irrelevant to the problem of production/resource shortage, whether in the near or mid-term; smaller packs will always allow more cars to be built.

WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:04 am Consider the side effects of forcing everyone into PHEVs. For one, public DCQCs become uneconomic not just for years but for decades. Great if you want fossil fueled vehicles to survive, not so great otherwise. To be economic, charging networks need traffic. No more new BEVs, declining traffic. I'd rather see the gas stations with that problem.

Who said anything about forcing anyone into PHEVs? Not me. I've said that we should stop subsidizing PEVs and FCEVs, so that people make rational financial choices rather than basing their decision on a government-distorted artificial price. A 2023 Niro PHEV has a base MSRP of $33,740. The base MSRP of a 2023 Niro EV is $39,450, a $5,710 difference. How many years will it take the average buyer to make up the difference? How many of them can even afford the more expensive car if it isn't subsidized? After all, the rule of thumb is that a $5k reduction in price doubles the size of the potential market. I suspect the Prius Prime on the 5th Gen Prius platform will come in around $30k but we'll see, apparently with at least 37 miles of range. Plus it looks good, and Toyota has finally realized that they need to give people something beyond just efficiency, and provide better performance, handling, ride, NVH etc.
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

GRA wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:05 pm
WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:04 am
GRA wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:52 pm
Which is why I favor PHEVs for now, for price, number that can be produced given the limited battery supply, and all-around capability given the currently immature/inadequate charging infrastructure.
Nice simple statement. Wrong, but nice and simple. Oh, probably true for you, but not for most.

BEVs are the car of the future.

PHEVs are useful, if you fit the profile. The problem is the profile is fairly narrow. If you don't drive long trips a smaller battery BEV would be a better choice. If you don't drive enough short trips, a HEV would be a better choice. For the PHEV to make sense to the driver/owner, the mix of trips needs to be just right. Then add in the driver experience, where BEVs are just better than both ICE and PHEVs.
The profile is narrow??? Pre-pandemic, 76.4% of American commuters did so solo by car. The average round-trip commute is 41 miles. How is that a narrow profile for PHEVs? Even if you're limited to L1 at one end, 4-6 hours of L1 at 3-5 miles/kWh gives people enough range to do the commute one-way, maybe more in the most congested stop and go commutes with low speeds and lots of regen, which is also where the pollution is greatest and a reduction most necessary. 8-12 hours of L1 at one end and you can do the round trip. L1 at both ends or L2 at either and you can also do the whole commute on battery.
First, a nit on use of statistics. Average round-trip commute is not a useful statistic, as the distribution is not close to normal. The median round-trip commute is about half of that, excluding the work-from-home types.

This is from 2003, so is somewhat dated. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1006/ML100621425.pdf

Average is a sum divided by the number. Median is the point with half higher and half lower.

Bill Gates walks into a bar. The average wealth could easily buy a house, but the median wealth might not be able to afford another beer.


Many BEV drivers also use mostly L1. I would expect the fraction using mostly L1 to increase with time as BEVs move down market.

The question isn't "could use a PHEV", but on "is a PHEV the best choice?" This depends not just on economics, but also on values, needs and wants.

Start again with just pure economics. No subsidies.

A BEV has a large advantage for just local driving with charging at home. A PHEV comes in second in this kind of driving, as it isn't as good as a BEV and is more expensive to buy. ICE/HEV is the loser here, with high fuel costs and inconvenient refueling.

An ICE/HEV has a large advantage on long trips in areas with poor public charging. A PHEV comes in second, as has worse fuel economy and is more expensive to buy. The BEV is the loser here, with inconvenient and slow public charging.

A PHEV is better with enough local driving to pay off the extra cost vs an ICE/HEV, and enough trips to areas of poor public charging, or just enough trips beyond range of the BEV, to win out over the BEV.

OK with all of that?

Now, how large is that slice? Depends of things that change with time, such as the build out of charging networks, the range of BEVs, the cost of batteries, the cost of electric power, the cost of gasoline and so on.

This was a large slice in 2010, as there was almost no public charging, range of BEVs was fairly short and batteries were very expensive. Price of gasoline in real dollars was similar, and the price of electric power hasn't changed much for most of the USA (local rates might have).

This is a much smaller slice today as reasonable public charging covers most of the population. Yes, there are still large areas uncovered. This is a much smaller slice today as BEV ranges and costs have come down. Note that COVID disrupted supply chains and drove up real costs for all vehicles, and BEVs even more. Prices even more, as profit margins have expanded.

It seems reasonable to me that public charging is mostly going to get better with time.

It seems reasonable to me that BEV ranges and costs are going to improve with time.

Long term, PHEVs lose. Their best time is well past, and things are not getting better for PHEVs.

The BEV is the car of the future.
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

WetEV wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:12 am
GRA wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:05 pm
WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:04 am

Nice simple statement. Wrong, but nice and simple. Oh, probably true for you, but not for most.

BEVs are the car of the future.

PHEVs are useful, if you fit the profile. The problem is the profile is fairly narrow. If you don't drive long trips a smaller battery BEV would be a better choice. If you don't drive enough short trips, a HEV would be a better choice. For the PHEV to make sense to the driver/owner, the mix of trips needs to be just right. Then add in the driver experience, where BEVs are just better than both ICE and PHEVs.
The profile is narrow??? Pre-pandemic, 76.4% of American commuters did so solo by car. The average round-trip commute is 41 miles. How is that a narrow profile for PHEVs? Even if you're limited to L1 at one end, 4-6 hours of L1 at 3-5 miles/kWh gives people enough range to do the commute one-way, maybe more in the most congested stop and go commutes with low speeds and lots of regen, which is also where the pollution is greatest and a reduction most necessary. 8-12 hours of L1 at one end and you can do the round trip. L1 at both ends or L2 at either and you can also do the whole commute on battery.
First, a nit on use of statistics. Average round-trip commute is not a useful statistic, as the distribution is not close to normal. The median round-trip commute is about half of that, excluding the work-from-home types.

This is from 2003, so is somewhat dated. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1006/ML100621425.pdf

Average is a sum divided by the number. Median is the point with half higher and half lower.

Bill Gates walks into a bar. The average wealth could easily buy a house, but the median wealth might not be able to afford another beer.

I'm aware of the difference, I chose to use the higher number to reflect worst case assumptions for the PHEV. And 2003 data is way out of date, as commute distance and time steadily increased up until the start of the pandemic. We'll have to see how things wind up now with more people WFH, but they are irrelevant to how far the people who still commute have to travel. I suspect the average and median commute distance/time will increase, since those with incomes at the lower and higher ends tend to commute further that those in the middle, and lower-income jobs aren't WFH.


WetEV wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:12 am Many BEV drivers also use mostly L1. I would expect the fraction using mostly L1 to increase with time as BEVs move down market.
Define many in %. Unlike a PHEV, L1-only severely limits usable range for a BEV - you have to have L2 or more realistically DCFCs to allow you to do more than routine local driving without major time inconvenience. I don't see BEVs moving down market in large numbers without access to L2 at home or work, although L1 can work for some. I've pointed this out to some friends who want to get a BEV. As they own a house (they have solar as well) they could install L2, but it would undoubtedly require upgrading their service entrance capacity. However, if they wanted to keep the cost down they could do the L1 at home/DCFC when needed bit, because they live in a part of the Bay Area where there are lots of FCs nearby.

They can probably afford to do either, so it comes down to permitting/construction hassle and cost vs. occasional charging inconvenience for them. Seeing as how the wife will be driving the BEV and she rarely needs to take long trips when her husband's (CR-V hybrid) away on his, L1 at home might work for them, at least until he needs to replace his car. He will undoubtedly do so with a ZEV if the infrastructure allows it then - his usage is fairly similar to mine, albeit he has to do more local driving for routine errands, and he takes even more long road trips to remote areas than I do. A PHEV would have best met his needs for now, but unfortunately the RAV4 Prime wasn't available when he needed to replace his last car (he'd been driving Volvo wagons for the 40+ years I've known him) and he preferred the CR-V hybrid over the RAV4 HEV. The Outlander PHEV was and remains a pig on gas, so he'd have been burning more rather than less if he'd gone that way instead of a straight HEV.

OTOH, I have friends who've been driving PHEVs for years and have just charged them L1 using the car's portable EVSE, despite their current PHEV's portable EVSE allowing both L1 (10A) or L2 (30A). They simply don't worry if they use gas now and then, and they are far more typical of the average American car buyer's attitude (admittedly higher income, in their case). Now that they've added one BEV (an F-150 Lightning) and had to upgrade their service entrance in any case to allow for the 100A circuit needed for the Ford's 80A L2 EVSE, they also installed another 50A circuit with a NEMA 14-50R so they can charge the PHEV L2 using its portable EVSE. Not that they need it for the PHEV as they can fully charge it overnight on L1, but they plan to go all BEV when the PHEV's lease runs out next year, and L1 simply doesn't cut it for a BEV for them. They could share the Ford's L2, but since they can afford not to and and they were already dealing with the hassle of upgrading the SE, they decided to install the extra circuit to future-proof things. Besides, the Lightning's an energy pig and really benefits from that 80A. They're also going solar probably between now and then. Now, they can afford to do all this, but much of the mass market can't even if that were an option, which it isn't for renters.

IIRR you had L1-only originally - why did you upgrade from L1 to L2 at home, despite the added expense and hassle, if not for convenience/flexibility?

WetEV wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:12 am The question isn't "could use a PHEV", but on "is a PHEV the best choice?" This depends not just on economics, but also on values, needs and wants.

Start again with just pure economics. No subsidies.

A BEV has a large advantage for just local driving with charging at home. A PHEV comes in second in this kind of driving, as it isn't as good as a BEV and is more expensive to buy. ICE/HEV is the loser here, with high fuel costs and inconvenient refueling.

How do you figure that a BEV is less expensive to buy than a moderate range PHEV? Not currently it isn't, unless you're talking about very small battery city cars, as the pack remains the most expensive component. And AOTBE a BEV with the kind of range that American consumers demand is less efficient when running on electricity than a moderate AER PHEV running on electricity, because the PHEV is several hundred pounds lighter: example, 2023 Niro BEV curb weight is 3,721 lb., the PHEV is 3,386 lb. so 335 lb. lighter, or looking at it another way, the BEV is hauling around 10% more weight, roughly the equivalent of 2 extra adults (or 1 morbidly obese American) at all times.

WetEV wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:12 am An ICE/HEV has a large advantage on long trips in areas with poor public charging. A PHEV comes in second, as has worse fuel economy and is more expensive to buy. The BEV is the loser here, with inconvenient and slow public charging.

A PHEV is better with enough local driving to pay off the extra cost vs an ICE/HEV, and enough trips to areas of poor public charging, or just enough trips beyond range of the BEV, to win out over the BEV.

OK with all of that?
Yes, assuming you don't mean that a conventional ICE has an advantage on long trips without charging infrastructure; only an HEV does. The PHEV will have better fuel economy than the conventional ICE (but is more expensive to buy), while being able to go all the same places.

WetEV wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:12 am Now, how large is that slice? Depends of things that change with time, such as the build out of charging networks, the range of BEVs, the cost of batteries, the cost of electric power, the cost of gasoline and so on.

Of course, plus government regs and public attitudes towards emissions, although the latter is ideological rather than financial. With current gas prices locally, a high mpg HEV like the Prius is once again cheaper to fuel than a PEV here, if you have to use public charging (EA Pass + with high usage aside).


WetEV wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:12 am This was a large slice in 2010, as there was almost no public charging, range of BEVs was fairly short and batteries were very expensive. Price of gasoline in real dollars was similar, and the price of electric power hasn't changed much for most of the USA (local rates might have).

This is a much smaller slice today as reasonable public charging covers most of the population. Yes, there are still large areas uncovered. This is a much smaller slice today as BEV ranges and costs have come down. Note that COVID disrupted supply chains and drove up real costs for all vehicles, and BEVs even more. Prices even more, as profit margins have expanded.

It seems reasonable to me that public charging is mostly going to get better with time.

It seems reasonable to me that BEV ranges and costs are going to improve with time.

Long term, PHEVs lose. Their best time is well past, and things are not getting better for PHEVs.

The BEV is the car of the future.

I don't disagree with any of the above bar the price of gasoline, as it was lower in 2010 compared to the past year - real world equivalence to the past year was the 2013-2014 price spike. As for the rest, of course charging infrastructure, BEV price, range etc. will eventually improve to compete with ICEs. But I'm not talking about the long-term future, I'm talking about the near and mid-term, and for the next one or maybe two car generations, until BEVs and their infrastructure have improved to the point that they can compete in all the above areas with ICEs, PHEVs buy us the time to do all that and are a better choice for the typical buyer now - they cost less to buy, can go anywhere with the existing infrastructure, don't control where someone can live or work, can be built in greater numbers given current battery resource limitations, are more efficient where it's most critical for pollution, and you can do all that with just one car - the only thing they can't do is be ZEV all the time for everyone. Their time isn't past (yet) when viewed objectively, it's only unequal government subsidies that have distorted the market that makes it appear so.

We know that unequal subsidies can drive PHEV/BEV sales splits either way, cf. the Netherlands. Now that so many PHEVs and BEVs no longer qualify for subsidies in the U.S., we may finally see just how buyers value each of them on a more objective basis if fuel prices stay elevated. .And I'll also be very interested to see how the new Prius Prime's sales stack up against the regular Prius, as the Prime's not only ZEV in local use, it also outperforms the HEV. Of course, we still need government mandates - without some form of coercion most Americans would continue to buy conventional ICEs and burn fossil fuels, at least they would if gas/diesel costs are lower.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

GRA wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 12:56 pm
WetEV wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:12 am First, a nit on use of statistics. Average round-trip commute is not a useful statistic, as the distribution is not close to normal. The median round-trip commute is about half of that, excluding the work-from-home types.

This is from 2003, so is somewhat dated. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1006/ML100621425.pdf

Average is a sum divided by the number. Median is the point with half higher and half lower.

Bill Gates walks into a bar. The average wealth could easily buy a house, but the median wealth might not be able to afford another beer.

I'm aware of the difference, I chose to use the higher number to reflect worst case assumptions for the PHEV.
Misusing statistics isn't a way to convince people that understand statistics.
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