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Tesla lead times are down to near zero. 11 days at best perhaps more. Not long to build a car and ship it to you.

Wonder if the bonfire of Benjamins over at twitter has anything to do with that.
 
cwerdna said:
Opening the North American Charging Standard
https://www.tesla.com/blog/opening-north-american-charging-standard

Now what we need is an adapter that converts the NACS (Tesla) plug into a Chademo socket. :)
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/elon-musk-demands-twitter-staff-commit-to-long-hours-or-leave.html

Hell working on a likely failing Twitter? And perhaps less than three months of pay, with the worry about being fired for correctly telling the boss his ideas are crap?

Or three months of pay?

Decisions, decisions.

Musk hasn't a plan that passes the giggle test yet.

I got popcorn.
 
Seems that most Twitter employees didn't sign up for a death march.
When you fire 50%, and 75% of those left quit, there are a lot of surplus keyboards.
Among other things.
And a lot of lines of code uncared for.
 
GM Says Its Dealers Have Serviced Over 11,000 Tesla EVs Since 2021
https://www.carscoops.com/2022/11/gm-says-its-dealers-have-serviced-over-11000-tesla-evs-since-2021/

General Motors has a growing Tesla repair business
https://www.teslarati.com/general-motors-tesla-repair-business/
 
Electrek:
Tesla still owns US EV market but is losing market share, shows new data

https://electrek.co/2022/11/29/tesla-owns-us-ev-market-but-losing-market-shares-data/


S&P Global Mobility released new EV sale data that shows Tesla still owns the US EV market, but it is losing market share.

But when you had close to 100% of the market, there’s only one way to go, and that’s down. . . .

For the entire year of 2020, Tesla vehicles accounted for 79% of new electric vehicles registered in the United States. In 2021, that number went down to 69.95%, but that’s still impressive with EV delivery volumes significantly increasing throughout the year along with Tesla’s prices.

Now in 2022, new data released by S&P Global Mobility today shows that Tesla still dominates with 65% of market share this year through the first nine months:

Although U.S. electric vehicle registrations remain dominated by Tesla, the brand is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive. Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla does not yet truly compete.

Out of the more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022 in the US, nearly 340,000 were Tesla vehicles.

When you look into the luxury EV market (over $50,000), Tesla’s dominance is even clearer with 85% market share. . . .

However, some of those new EV models from other automakers are expected to reach high-volume production within the next three years and start challenging Tesla’s dominance in the US.

In fact, S&P thinks that Tesla’s US EV share will drop to below 20% of the overall market by 2025 which means that either Tesla will have to falter or the rest of the industry will have to go all out in the next three years. Or more likely both. . . .


I'll be curious to see if the reduction in the number of PEV models eligible for subsidies due to the IRA temporarily reverses this downward trend. Alternatively, it's possible an increasing number of Tesla's current and potential customers disagree with/are disgusted by Elon's politics and antics and don't want to continue providing him with the means to propagate them, so choose to vote with their wallets by shopping elsewhere. I've seen/read a few news stories indicating that may be happening on a small scale now, and that was before the decision to let You Know Coup and the Covid crazies back on Twitter.
 
GRA said:
Electrek:
Tesla still owns US EV market but is losing market share, shows new data

https://electrek.co/2022/11/29/tesla-owns-us-ev-market-but-losing-market-shares-data/


S&P Global Mobility released new EV sale data that shows Tesla still owns the US EV market, but it is losing market share.

But when you had close to 100% of the market, there’s only one way to go, and that’s down. . . .

For the entire year of 2020, Tesla vehicles accounted for 79% of new electric vehicles registered in the United States. In 2021, that number went down to 69.95%, but that’s still impressive with EV delivery volumes significantly increasing throughout the year along with Tesla’s prices.

Now in 2022, new data released by S&P Global Mobility today shows that Tesla still dominates with 65% of market share this year through the first nine months:

Although U.S. electric vehicle registrations remain dominated by Tesla, the brand is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive. Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla does not yet truly compete.

Out of the more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022 in the US, nearly 340,000 were Tesla vehicles.

When you look into the luxury EV market (over $50,000), Tesla’s dominance is even clearer with 85% market share. . . .

However, some of those new EV models from other automakers are expected to reach high-volume production within the next three years and start challenging Tesla’s dominance in the US.

In fact, S&P thinks that Tesla’s US EV share will drop to below 20% of the overall market by 2025 which means that either Tesla will have to falter or the rest of the industry will have to go all out in the next three years. Or more likely both. . . .


I'll be curious to see if the reduction in the number of PEV models eligible for subsidies due to the IRA temporarily reverses this downward trend. Alternatively, it's possible an increasing number of Tesla's current and potential customers disagree with/are disgusted by Elon's politics and antics and don't want to continue providing him with the means to propagate them, so choose to vote with their wallets by shopping elsewhere. I've seen/read a few news stories indicating that may be happening on a small scale now, and that was before the decision to let You Know Coup and the Covid crazies back on Twitter.

I think selling 20 million EVs a year is about as far as Elon wants to take it and he is hoping some other people get their act together and can start providing the level of services that he and his companies are doing.
 
GaleHawkins said:
<Snip>

I think selling 20 million EVs a year is about as far as Elon wants to take it and he is hoping some other people get their act together and can start providing the level of services that he and his companies are doing.

I'm unsure if you're being ironic or not. Considering the complaints about Tesla quality assurance (or the complete lack of it, like the roof falling off a brand-new car as it was being driving home), service centers as well as untested software being uploaded and just as quickly removed, plus Tesla Solar calling it quits in multiple states and urban areas, and the continuing implosion of Twitter, I'd say the level of service his companies are providing is highly variable, and often sub-standard. SpaceX seems to be doing well, and Tesla's sales remain strong for now. What other companies are you referring to?
 
From Fred Lambert at Electrek, some further info and comments re Tesla opening up its charging standard, whose conclusions I agree with:
Standards war? Things heat up between Tesla and CharIN

https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/standards-war-things-heat-up-between-tesla-charin/

I've long said that if I'd been made EV dictator a decade or maybe even as recently as five years ago I would have required every PEV in North America to use Tesla's connector, but as Lambert opines (correctly IMO) that ship has sailed, and Tesla's only doing this now so they can qualify for Federal money. To quote my Sig, this is now a case of Tesla's best being the enemy of CCS' good enough, and IMO it's just a matter of time before Tesla will convert to CCS-1 here, as they have with CCS-2 in Europe. If Aptera wants to jump on board Tesla, no one cares - Aptera's doomed to be a small niche product, even assuming that they actually make it to production and sales this incarnation.
 
GRA said:
From Fred Lambert at Electrek, some further info and comments re Tesla opening up its charging standard, whose conclusions I agree with:
Standards war? Things heat up between Tesla and CharIN

https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/standards-war-things-heat-up-between-tesla-charin/

I've long said that if I'd been made EV dictator a decade or maybe even as recently as five years ago I would have required every PEV in North America to use Tesla's connector, but as Lambert opines (correctly IMO) that ship has sailed, and Tesla's only doing this now so they can qualify for Federal money. To quote my Sig, this is now a case of Tesla's best being the enemy of CCS' good enough, and IMO it's just a matter of time before Tesla will convert to CCS-1 here, as they have with CCS-2 in Europe. If Aptera wants to jump on board Tesla, no one cares - Aptera's doomed to be a small niche product, even assuming that they actually make it to production and sales this incarnation.
No real reason to convert Tesla to CCS unless it's government mandated. Lots of Tesla Superchargers available and there's a CCS to Tesla adaptor available if you need it. Aptera picked Tesla because it's smaller and cheaper than CCS. Plus they get access to the Supercharger network. In reality, most Apteras will only charge at home overnight on a L1 EVSE. Some will only charge once a month at most.
 
johnlocke said:
GRA said:
From Fred Lambert at Electrek, some further info and comments re Tesla opening up its charging standard, whose conclusions I agree with:
Standards war? Things heat up between Tesla and CharIN

https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/standards-war-things-heat-up-between-tesla-charin/

I've long said that if I'd been made EV dictator a decade or maybe even as recently as five years ago I would have required every PEV in North America to use Tesla's connector, but as Lambert opines (correctly IMO) that ship has sailed, and Tesla's only doing this now so they can qualify for Federal money. To quote my Sig, this is now a case of Tesla's best being the enemy of CCS' good enough, and IMO it's just a matter of time before Tesla will convert to CCS-1 here, as they have with CCS-2 in Europe. If Aptera wants to jump on board Tesla, no one cares - Aptera's doomed to be a small niche product, even assuming that they actually make it to production and sales this incarnation.

No real reason to convert Tesla to CCS unless it's government mandated. Lots of Tesla Superchargers available and there's a CCS to Tesla adaptor available if you need it. Aptera picked Tesla because it's smaller and cheaper than CCS. Plus they get access to the Supercharger network. In reality, most Apteras will only charge at home overnight on a L1 EVSE. Some will only charge once a month at most.


While true now, it won't be as Tesla's market share decreases and the cost of going it alone rises, while CCS' continues to expand. Then there's the much-needed and desired benefit of having a single, universal (in North America) standard.

Aptera can do whatever they want, they're simply too small to matter.
 
GRA said:
johnlocke said:
GRA said:
From Fred Lambert at Electrek, some further info and comments re Tesla opening up its charging standard, whose conclusions I agree with:


https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/standards-war-things-heat-up-between-tesla-charin/

I've long said that if I'd been made EV dictator a decade or maybe even as recently as five years ago I would have required every PEV in North America to use Tesla's connector, but as Lambert opines (correctly IMO) that ship has sailed, and Tesla's only doing this now so they can qualify for Federal money. To quote my Sig, this is now a case of Tesla's best being the enemy of CCS' good enough, and IMO it's just a matter of time before Tesla will convert to CCS-1 here, as they have with CCS-2 in Europe. If Aptera wants to jump on board Tesla, no one cares - Aptera's doomed to be a small niche product, even assuming that they actually make it to production and sales this incarnation.

No real reason to convert Tesla to CCS unless it's government mandated. Lots of Tesla Superchargers available and there's a CCS to Tesla adaptor available if you need it. Aptera picked Tesla because it's smaller and cheaper than CCS. Plus they get access to the Supercharger network. In reality, most Apteras will only charge at home overnight on a L1 EVSE. Some will only charge once a month at most.


While true now, it won't be as Tesla's market share decreases and the cost of going it alone rises, while CCS' continues to expand. Then there's the much-needed and desired benefit of having a single, universal (in North America) standard.

Aptera can do whatever they want, they're simply too small to matter.
Tesla will just keep adding supercharger locations with CCS chargers included. As a business charging stations are going to be profitable for Tesla. Adding CCS charging is trivial when building Supercharger stations. Tesla can leverage that to build more traffic though their stations. Eventually there might be more CCS chargers than Tesla chargers at supercharger stations. Even if they end up with a smaller piece of the pie, the pie keeps getting bigger and so does their slice.

A little off- topic but what about a Tesla to CHADEMO converter for a Leaf? They already have a CHADEMO to Tesla converter so why not the reverse. This might have been a moot point in the past but now that Tesla has opened up their network it might be worth exploring.
 
johnlocke said:
GRA said:
johnlocke said:
No real reason to convert Tesla to CCS unless it's government mandated. Lots of Tesla Superchargers available and there's a CCS to Tesla adaptor available if you need it. Aptera picked Tesla because it's smaller and cheaper than CCS. Plus they get access to the Supercharger network. In reality, most Apteras will only charge at home overnight on a L1 EVSE. Some will only charge once a month at most.


While true now, it won't be as Tesla's market share decreases and the cost of going it alone rises, while CCS' continues to expand. Then there's the much-needed and desired benefit of having a single, universal (in North America) standard.

Aptera can do whatever they want, they're simply too small to matter.
Tesla will just keep adding supercharger locations with CCS chargers included. As a business charging stations are going to be profitable for Tesla. Adding CCS charging is trivial when building Supercharger stations. Tesla can leverage that to build more traffic though their stations. Eventually there might be more CCS chargers than Tesla chargers at supercharger stations. Even if they end up with a smaller piece of the pie, the pie keeps getting bigger and so does their slice.

I guess we'll see within a few years which of us is right. But let me ask you, which do you think is preferable, multiple charging standards/connectors or just one, even if that one may not be the best? Gas pumps have standard nozzles which fit standard fuel filler pipes, so anywhere you go it's unnecessary to be concerned about whether that dispenser will work with this car - they all will. I can see no reason beyond ego for Tesla to continue using their own connector, unless they think there's a realistic chance that they can convince everyone else to switch over to them. Does anyone believe that will happen this late in the game?
 
GRA said:
johnlocke said:
GRA said:
While true now, it won't be as Tesla's market share decreases and the cost of going it alone rises, while CCS' continues to expand. Then there's the much-needed and desired benefit of having a single, universal (in North America) standard.

Aptera can do whatever they want, they're simply too small to matter.
Tesla will just keep adding supercharger locations with CCS chargers included. As a business charging stations are going to be profitable for Tesla. Adding CCS charging is trivial when building Supercharger stations. Tesla can leverage that to build more traffic though their stations. Eventually there might be more CCS chargers than Tesla chargers at supercharger stations. Even if they end up with a smaller piece of the pie, the pie keeps getting bigger and so does their slice.

I guess we'll see within a few years which of us is right. But let me ask you, which do you think is preferable, multiple charging standards/connectors or just one, even if that one may not be the best? Gas pumps have standard nozzles which fit standard fuel filler pipes, so anywhere you go it's unnecessary to be concerned about whether that dispenser will work with this car - they all will. I can see no reason beyond ego for Tesla to continue using their own connector, unless they think there's a realistic chance that they can convince everyone else to switch over to them. Does anyone believe that will happen this late in the game?
You obviously don't remember leaded vs unleaded nozzles or diesel nozzles. Tesla sells a million vehicles a year (half of them in the US), more than all the other North American brands combined. I don't think that trend is likely to change. Giga Texas Is likely to ramp up to a million a year in the next couple of years. DCFC isn't the same as a gas station anyway. You HAVE to go to a gas station to fill your tank. You can charge an EV anywhere there's an outlet. DCFC is a convenience not a necessity. Multiple standards can coexist for a long time and it's just as likely that everyone converts to NACS eventually. Tesla will keep adding Supercharger stations with both CCS and NACS plugs. It's going to be profitable for them in the long run, Even if they sell power at cost, they can make money on the convenience stores and restaurants that will inevitably be there. And even though Tesla has said in the past that Superchargers would not be a profit center for them, that could easily change.

You keep thinking that this is an either/or situation. As long as I can pull into a station that has a plug open that fits my car, why should I care who's it is. Having several plug types available is trivial compared to the infrastructure costs. Other than EV America (who's funded by VW), most of the rest of the DCFC companies are neutral as to plug types. CHADEMO is probably on the way out but we'll have to wait and see even on it.
 
johnlocke said:
GRA said:
johnlocke said:
Tesla will just keep adding supercharger locations with CCS chargers included. As a business charging stations are going to be profitable for Tesla. Adding CCS charging is trivial when building Supercharger stations. Tesla can leverage that to build more traffic though their stations. Eventually there might be more CCS chargers than Tesla chargers at supercharger stations. Even if they end up with a smaller piece of the pie, the pie keeps getting bigger and so does their slice.

I guess we'll see within a few years which of us is right. But let me ask you, which do you think is preferable, multiple charging standards/connectors or just one, even if that one may not be the best? Gas pumps have standard nozzles which fit standard fuel filler pipes, so anywhere you go it's unnecessary to be concerned about whether that dispenser will work with this car - they all will. I can see no reason beyond ego for Tesla to continue using their own connector, unless they think there's a realistic chance that they can convince everyone else to switch over to them. Does anyone believe that will happen this late in the game?
You obviously don't remember leaded vs unleaded nozzles or diesel nozzles.

I remember them well, and it's much simpler now, isn't it? Diesel nozzles just have green wrappers on them.


johnlocke said:
Tesla sells a million vehicles a year (half of them in the US), more than all the other North American brands combined. I don't think that trend is likely to change. Giga Texas Is likely to ramp up to a million a year in the next couple of years. DCFC isn't the same as a gas station anyway. You HAVE to go to a gas station to fill your tank. You can charge an EV anywhere there's an outlet. DCFC is a convenience not a necessity.

We'll see if Tesla can maintain their sales, in the face of increasing competition. As for the bolded sentence, that's only true for those who have convenient, guaranteed L1/2 charging at home or work, and who don't take trips. DCFC is a necessity unless you're willing and able to accept major time inconvenience.


johnlocke said:
Multiple standards can coexist for a long time and it's just as likely that everyone converts to NACS eventually. Tesla will keep adding Supercharger stations with both CCS and NACS plugs. It's going to be profitable for them in the long run, Even if they sell power at cost, they can make money on the convenience stores and restaurants that will inevitably be there. And even though Tesla has said in the past that Superchargers would not be a profit center for them, that could easily change.

You keep thinking that this is an either/or situation. As long as I can pull into a station that has a plug open that fits my car, why should I care who's it is. Having several plug types available is trivial compared to the infrastructure costs. Other than EV America (who's funded by VW), most of the rest of the DCFC companies are neutral as to plug types. CHADEMO is probably on the way out but we'll have to wait and see even on it.


Sure, they can co-exist for a long time, but is that the best option? No. We're going to need every DCFC plug we can get in as many locations as we can to ramp up at the rate we need to, and having multiple standards means that much more work to ensure compatibility by different manufacturers, plus unnecessary confusion for customers.

CHAdeMO is terminal here, we're just waiting for the death rattle. Yes, Tesla will be able to hang on considerably longer owing to their lead in the number of cars using their connectors as well as the higher reliability that comes from only needing to ensure compatibility with their own cars and Plug and Charge payment, but CCS has the latter now and that will become universal. Tesla's fleet size will be overwhelmed by the number of CCS cars here from legacy manufacturers in a few years, none of whom have any incentive to use Tesla rather than CCS. I suppose if they could get newbies like VinFast, who unlike Aptera have a chance to sell in quantity to use them they might have a chance going forward. If Tesla had opened their connector to anyone five or ten years ago without all the legal conditions they insisted on at the time then it might have worked, and that would have been great. But I don't see it happening now.
 
I think you just made my point. Just ignore the nozzle you don't use. Same thing for charging plugs. I agree we need more stations in more places but that will happen organically . As EV's become more prevalent, L2 chargers will pop up in apartment complexes. It will be another source of income just like a laundry room. Just how many trips a year do you think someone is likely to take that exceed the battery's range? 2 or 3 big trips annually for the average user? A salesman might do it a couple of times a week of course or maybe a tradesman. Most people make local trips of less than 40 miles a day. If you can charge at home, you will do so if only because it's cheaper and more convenient. Overnight charging is going to be the norm. That will drive the utilities nuts trying figure out rates.

My point here is that you won't use a DCFC in the same way as you do a gas station. If you're a homeowner or renting a house, you're going to charge at home overnight. If you live in an apartment building that has charging available (maybe even just L1) that's where you'll charge most of the time. DCFC has it's place but it's not going to be most people's preferred choice. It's going to cost more to use than home charging and will be less convenient since you're stuck there until the car finishes charging. DCFC isn't necessary in the same way a gas station is. DCFC is going to be clustered near freeway routes for the most part because people driving long distances will be the primary users.
 
johnlocke said:
I think you just made my point. Just ignore the nozzle you don't use. Same thing for charging plugs. I agree we need more stations in more places but that will happen organically . As EV's become more prevalent, L2 chargers will pop up in apartment complexes. It will be another source of income just like a laundry room. Just how many trips a year do you think someone is likely to take that exceed the battery's range? 2 or 3 big trips annually for the average user? A salesman might do it a couple of times a week of course or maybe a tradesman. Most people make local trips of less than 40 miles a day. If you can charge at home, you will do so if only because it's cheaper and more convenient. Overnight charging is going to be the norm. That will drive the utilities nuts trying figure out rates.

My point here is that you won't use a DCFC in the same way as you do a gas station. If you're a homeowner or renting a house, you're going to charge at home overnight. If you live in an apartment building that has charging available (maybe even just L1) that's where you'll charge most of the time. DCFC has it's place but it's not going to be most people's preferred choice. It's going to cost more to use than home charging and will be less convenient since you're stuck there until the car finishes charging. DCFC isn't necessary in the same way a gas station is. DCFC is going to be clustered near freeway routes for the most part because people driving long distances will be the primary users.

I don't wish to fully repeat an argument I've already had at great length many times before with others, so I'll just limit my reply to pointing out that it will be many decades before existing MUDs have the necessary charging added and we build enough new ones with it ab initio, and/or ubiquitous workplace charging, so we'll need public DCFCs (and higher power L2) for local use until then. Which is why EA, EVgo and others have been building them at Banks of America (EA), Lucky's/Albertson's grocery stores (EVgo) etc. in urban areas, in addition to along major freeways for road trippers.
 
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