2 Years of Leaf : EV Activitists' Hopes and Reality

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evnow

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Messages
11,480
Location
Seattle, WA
Now that the much awaited Leaf is 2 years old, I thought it was a good time to relook at some of our hopes from 2 years ago and the reality we see today. I'll just list the 3 most important ones that I see.

We thought, if only a highway capable car with a decent amount of range, priced affordably from a major automaker was available, the car would find a lot of buyers. Infact we thought, until the TN factory opened, Leaf would always be a special order in short supply. We thought, people will see Leafs on the road and that will motivate them to buy EVs.

The reality is a bit different - quite a bit different. Once the activitists, who numbers a few thousand, had their Leafs hardly anyone wanted to buy a Leaf. Even with easy availability, Leaf sales were stuck around 500 a month. The large number of environmentally conscious consumers - or even the wholefoods types, preferred to buy Priuses or SUVs instead of Leafs. Apparently most consumers didn't want to make that jump. Afterall buying organic only requires a bit more money and no real "sacrifice" - and might even have personal health benefits. Buying a Leaf meant sacrifices - either convinience or luxury.

We thought we would have a wide Quick Charging network - what with the $500 Million EVProject. The reality has been so different, with DCQC barely there. Infact I'm yet to use one (though probably a minority in the Seattle area). Poor business judgement of Ecotality combined with various regulatory hurdles has hampered deployement of a QC network.

We thought Nissan would have done the needed studies. Infact, a Leaf was supposed to have been continuously running in AZ to test the longevity of the battery. The chemistry of the battery was such that active cooling wasn't needed. But the reality has been that in warmer places, the battery has degraded - atleast according to Leaf's instruments - faster than anyone had imagined.

So, the future of Leaf (and EVs in general) is now somewhat uncertain. Will the low sales and slow change continue even after MY13 is introduced ? What will happen to the large battery factory that Nissan has built ?

Will there be some other breakthrough that actually does what Leaf we thought would do ?
 
i dont agree with items 2 and 3, and feel that you leave out the volt, entirely, in one, which makes it not-so-accurate.
i know, uses gasoline.
whatever.

also, too, great recession.
also, too, sales around the world.

we are at the beginning, and more models are on the way. you can look at the hybrid revolution. how did that start out?
gangbusters or itsy bitsy steps at first?
 
Nearing the 2 year mark, my EV reflections revolve around QC too. I never thought with GM's bankruptcy, that they'd find the time - or the need to have to try and sink Chademo vis a vis Frankenplug. But that's what it took to get Chademo to drop much of their proprietary money grubbing secret decoder ring mentality - that kept many away from Chademo. Between Frankenplug & prohibitive "Demand Fees" that kill 50kW appliances (especially in So Cal), I hope it's not too late for Chademo to flourish.

.
 
I also am a bit disappointed at this 2 year mark.

  • I would have never guessed the rise of the "Ev-hater" and the negativity from a small, but very vocal portion of the population. I have been totally baffled by this unexpected segment of the population which seem highly emotional and extremely uninformed.
  • I was also disappointed at the true range of the Leaf after hearing "100 miles" for so long. I would have still bought one anyway and I'm happy with my leaf, but I know a lot of people who would have been interested in a 100 mile vehicle, but not a 73 mile one.
  • The battery degradation issue caught me by surprise. Not only the fact that it exists, but by the number of people who were upset by it (even if they hadn't experienced it themselves) and by the lack of response from Nissan.
  • I really expected there to be about 10x the number of L2 stations and at least 3x number of QC stations that we have around the DF/W area. So I'm disappointed there, but with the slower than expected sales of EVs I guess it only makes sense.
  • And yes - I honestly expected sales would be much higher for both the Volt and Leaf. THe first few months the demand greatly outpaced the supply. I figured this would continue for a few years much like the Toyota Prius had during the 2004 model year.
  • I expected the Toyota PiP to have much greater EV range, at least 20 miles and a Price much more affordable.
So yeah - A lot of disappointments to be had. However, its not all bad. I've been very pleased with our Leaf and our Volt and would not trade them for any other vehicle (except maybe a Tesla). We've had zero issues with our vehicles and I've had my Leaf close to 2 years now. I still have full 12 bars of capacity and besides a few door dings the car pretty much looks and works just like it was new. I'm also pleased that so many other manufacturers seem to be jumping into the plug-in game, which tells me that even though demand is sluggish right now they don't believe it will remain that way. I'm also pleased that Nissan appears to be redoubling their efforts rather than throwing in the towel. I'm hoping the 2013 Leaf will help turn things around. I also do not see the EV movement as a failure. In fact, I consider it to be a "sure-thing" at this point the way things are moving. It just seems to be launching a lot slower than I expected. I expected EV's to "hit the ground running" so to speak. And it certainly seemed that way during the first few months of sales when people were waiting and waiting (including myself) and there just wasn't enough supply. But now I see that EV sales are going to be a slow, but eventually unstoppable force. It may not pick up like I wanted until the 2nd or 3rd generation vehicles are available for the public.
 
I guess I come from a different perspective. I think the LEAF has done better than I expected. This is coming from someone who owned a Gen II Prius for five years and rarely saw another one on the road.

I never thought the first generation LEAF would be a big seller in Florida. Way too risky for the average person to make the jump. It was only when very attractive short-term leases were offered that sales picked up.

I never thought I'd see a single quick charge station set up anywhere near where I live for the foreseeable future, and I still don't. The few public L2s available get very little use. I can't imagine using one except in an emergency.

The choice to not include a TMS for the battery has certainly proven to be a fatal one in some locations and under some conditions, but it's not yet clear how widespread the damage is. LEAFs in Hawaii seem to be holding up pretty well and Hawaii has warm temperatures year round. There's even a LEAF in Florida that has been through two summers and seems to be doing ok.

So, all-in-all, the current LEAF is a pretty good start. Attractive leases have prompted many to make the jump, who wouldn't have otherwise (and it's pretty well known that once you drive a LEAF it's tough to go back to an ICE). Continue to make improvements so the car is more useful in hot and cold climates and for long-distance drivers and I think Nissan has a long-term winner.
 
I agree with points 2 and 3, but think point 1 is not valid. It takes time for people to become familiar with something so new/different and be willing to take a chance. As they meet people who own a Leaf and get educated, I think this will gradually change over time. Let's face it, the current Leaf is a perfect commuter car. It isn't a car that nicely fits other needs, although it can be stretched by those who are willing. If Nissan can get the price down and make improvements in battery capacity (probably the 2015 model year) I think the Leaf can really take off. Gotta remember that it took 10 years for the Prius to really go mainstream.
 
Yes, a depressing post by EVNOW, but it fit my mood this weekend perfectly. Doing the same 36 mile commute I've always done, I'm beginning to hit LBW several times a week, which means I'll have to go to 100% charging. It looks like the useful life of my LEAF will be right around three years. Next summer is going to be a disaster for Nissan (and hundreds of southwestern LEAF owners), and the publicity will hurt the EV movement badly, I think.

-Karl
 
thankyouOB said:
i dont agree with items 2 and 3, and feel that you leave out the volt, entirely.
Yes, 2 & 3 are BEV specific.

I should note that #1 actually covers both Leaf & Volt. Main gripe on gm-volt in the early days was the low # of Volts that would get produced. But, looks like Volt too will not sell well unless heavily discounted.

The early Leaf estimates were 50k per year (world wide production). The numbers got slashed initially because of the earthquake, but the numbers haven't been better in the second year. EU Leaf sales have been slow, perhaps slower than US (except for may be places like Norway).
 
evnow said:
thankyouOB said:
i dont agree with items 2 and 3, and feel that you leave out the volt, entirely.
Yes, 2 & 3 are BEV specific.

I should note that #1 actually covers both Leaf & Volt. Main gripe on gm-volt in the early days was the low # of Volts that would get produced. But, looks like Volt too will not sell well unless heavily discounted.

The early Leaf estimates were 50k per year (world wide production). The numbers got slashed initially because of the earthquake, but the numbers haven't been better in the second year. EU Leaf sales have been slow, perhaps slower than US (except for may be places like Norway).
All Norway shows is that even if you provide virtually every possible perk and huge government incentives in the country with the largest share of hydropower in the world, you still can't sell many BEVs. Hell, if you were to provide that level of incentives and perks in this country and restrict it to Hummers, they would be at the top of the sales charts even at current gas prices.

The problem with BEVs two years ago is that the projections of mass adoption by EV enthusiasts always ignored reality. The cars were bound to be too expensive and too limiting (given current battery technology and prices vis a vis ICEs and petroleum) to sell in large numbers. The automakers knew this, and no conspiracy theories are needed to explain why they didn't want to build them - they knew they couldn't sell enough to make a profit. Now that the initial early adopter frenzy has abated even the enthusiasts are starting to take a more objective view of the situation, which can only be healthy for the long-term development of PEVs.

Tesla has the right idea, I think. Start off at the high end of the market with niche vehicles that only the well-off can afford, and work your way down as costs decrease, acceptable performance becomes more affordable and the market grows. This was exactly the approach that worked for cars 100+ years ago, and has worked for every other capital-intensive product since. It's slow but sure, and far better than unrealistic over-promising that is inevitably succeeded by over-compensation in the other direction, i.e. PEVs are useless for any and all purposes. Neither is correct.
 
Stoaty said:
I agree with points 2 and 3, but think point 1 is not valid.
Not sure what you mean by not valid. Are you saying 2 years back EV enthusiasts didn't think that way or what ?
 
evnow said:
Now that the much awaited Leaf is 2 years old, I thought it was a good time to relook at some of our hopes from 2 years ago and the reality we see today. I'll just list the 3 most important ones that I see.

We thought, if only a highway capable car with a decent amount of range, priced affordably from a major automaker was available, the car would find a lot of buyers. Infact we thought, until the TN factory opened, Leaf would always be a special order in short supply. We thought, people will see Leafs on the road and that will motivate them to buy EVs.

The reality is a bit different - quite a bit different. Once the activitists, who numbers a few thousand, had their Leafs hardly anyone wanted to buy a Leaf. Even with easy availability, Leaf sales were stuck around 500 a month. The large number of environmentally conscious consumers - or even the wholefoods types, preferred to buy Priuses or SUVs instead of Leafs. Apparently most consumers didn't want to make that jump. Afterall buying organic only requires a bit more money and no real "sacrifice" - and might even have personal health benefits. Buying a Leaf meant sacrifices - either convinience or luxury.
You are correct. When you look at how everyone complains about the price of gasoline, you would think more people would be anxious to get away from gasoline. The reality is this, It is much easier to bitch about something than it is to do something about it. An EV requires you to figure out how to use electricity for transportation. It does take some thought and some planning and most people are just to lazy to do that.

Not all environmentally conscious consumers are willing and able to spend 30k on an EV, no matter how good it is. Many of this crowd would rather drive a 20 year old Subaru or they ride a bike every day and hardly ever drive anything.

The LEAF works well for me. One year and 10,000 miles down I have no regrets and would do it again. The other thing that is hurting LEAF sales is that gas here is 3.22 a gallon right now. If the cost of gasoline included the cost of that Trillion dollar war in IRAQ there would be more EV's on the road today.
 
evnow said:
We thought we would have a wide Quick Charging network - what with the $500 Million EVProject. The reality has been so different, with DCQC barely there. Infact I'm yet to use one (though probably a minority in the Seattle area). Poor business judgement of Ecotality combined with various regulatory hurdles has hampered deployement of a QC network.
The main problem here is that Ecotality Blink got most of the money to build that QC network. This company is the worst possible choice they could have made for that task. The Blink hardware is junk. The Blink software is junk. The service is horrible. This company has no redeeming value what so ever.

Had the QC network been built by some other company things would be way different now. The federal government should go after these guys for non performance. They deserve to be put out of business.
 
I have to chime in and say that if anyone really thought EV's would take off and sell well within the first couple of years, they were optimistic. The reality is that until fleet sales start to take off, they will not be sold in high quantity. With one major city already making the switch, others will not only follow, but demand it in the specifications. We wouldn't have air bags in our cars if the fleet managers didn't demand them, and we won't have mainstream EV adoption until that happens as well.

I live in So. Cal, and in the last two years I have seen great things. I now see Smith electric trucks delivering goods for Staples, Coca-Cola Semi trucks that are hybrids, and either a Leaf or Volt driving around almost daily. While I have yet to see a Tesla Model S, the fact that they have recieved so many car of the year awards is outstanding, and I would not have dared to even dream that two years ago. With the amount of money big oil has to keep its minions addicted, it is a wonder that any of these actually happened, so as I look toward the new year, I am inspried, not depressed about this issue. Tesla has again raised the bar, and everyone knows it.

Those of us that bought a Leaf early, knew we were going to be guinea pigs, and many people would be watching to see if it was a fiasco, a hit, or just a car. As time goes on, it is being figured out, but the reliability at the two year mark for me is outstanding. Sure the battery has lost some of its capacity, but it still does what I need it to do, and only time will tell if the five year mark will have me looking to replace it. My warranty says 8 years or 100,000 miles, and I am 1/4 of the way there, with far more than 75% of the battery capacity still usable, so I am not concerned. Will Nissan replace the battery under warranty? Will it be costly? These are still questions, and no one has solid answers. So many people will still wait.

Factor in that renters are far less likely to be able to charge, and your target for sales shrinks by a factor of huge. Laws are being enacted to allow these people to join us, but it takes time, effort, and energy. The city of Los Angeles has streamlined home charging units for the new year - 7 days from permit to plug in. That is encouraging.

Stop looking at the half empty portion of the glass.
 
KJD said:
evnow said:
We thought we would have a wide Quick Charging network - what with the $500 Million EVProject. The reality has been so different, with DCQC barely there. Infact I'm yet to use one (though probably a minority in the Seattle area). Poor business judgement of Ecotality combined with various regulatory hurdles has hampered deployement of a QC network.
The main problem here is that Ecotality Blink got most of the money to build that QC network. This company is the worst possible choice they could have made for that task. The Blink hardware is junk. The Blink software is junk. The service is horrible. This company has no redeeming value what so ever.

Had the QC network been built by some other company things would be way different now. The federal government should go after these guys for non performance. They deserve to be put out of business.

It's a reimbursement contract, so ECOtality hasn't run away with all that money. They don't get it until they put chargers in the ground. And the total wasn't anywhere near $500M either.

Yes, we all want more charging stations (even though many people on the forum won't pay to use them). But here's the rub that I think wasn't thought through very well by the DOE (and continues to be a problem with various other grants that have been given out, including the CEC). The EV Project would have been a LOT more successful if the funding included both the hardware and the complete installation at no charge to the host. If hosts had been offered that deal, then many more of them would have come to the table to host the charging stations and the BEST locations could have been chosen. Think of that, an actual competition to host the limited amount of fully funded stations. But, as it is, many of the hosts have to pay a cost share for the installation that makes many of them think twice about it, hence the lack of installations. And for a DC FC station, it can be a lot of money. Site acquisition is what has held up the process, and a completely free charging station (or two or three at one location) would attract many more hosts into the Project....

Just recently the CEC issued a grant in California to ChargePoint for charging equipment to be located at multi-unit dwellings. Great idea, they can really use them. But the amount of the grant is approximately what the hardware costs and there doesn't seem to be any funding for the actual installation. That grant will be DOA, since the multi-unit sites are actually much more expensive to install than single family homes...Very few host sites will want to pony up that install money.

That's the one thing I've learned in the last two years....Fund the whole EV charging station grant or project, and not just part of it. Making potential host sites have "skin in the game" to fund installations is a problem in this early market...
 
kolmstead said:
Doing the same 36 mile commute I've always done, I'm beginning to hit LBW several times a week
OUCH. 36 miles and you're getting to LBW on a 80% charge? What's your mi/kWh for these trips?
 
Personally I'm quite pleased with our LEAF.

In general I'm guardedly optimistic for future of LEAF and BEVs in general.

I do think Nissan need to get out ahead of this "Arizona" battery problem or next summer is going to make this past summer look like the good old days.

As always I'll preach that a battery capacity warranty is necessary to get wider adoption.
 
I think evnow's post is fairly realistic.
evnow said:
So, the future of Leaf (and EVs in general) is now somewhat uncertain. Will the low sales and slow change continue even after MY13 is introduced ? What will happen to the large battery factory that Nissan has built ?
I think the low sales will be here to stay. Perhaps Nissan will shift more battery production to the TN plant or consoloidates more of it to one/fewer plants? Perhaps Nissan will end up repurposing part of the plant to produce li-ion batteries for other applications (e.g. phones, tablets, computers, consumer electronics, industrial, etc.)?

I don't see Leaf sales really taking off unless there some global or national oil shock/shortage (e.g. gas going to $8+/gal, shortages like the 70s oil crises). Or, there are some massive incentives in the US or massive disincentives to buy ICEVs (almost no chance of either of these, IMHO). I think Leaf sales will stay about level w/where they are, unless it becomes much cheaper and/or has more range.
KJD said:
You are correct. When you look at how everyone complains about the price of gasoline, you would think more people would be anxious to get away from gasoline. The reality is this, It is much easier to bitch about something than it is to do something about it. An EV requires you to figure out how to use electricity for transportation. It does take some thought and some planning and most people are just to lazy to do that.
I agree. The problem is those people are turned off by the price and range. Some people think they need more range than they really do so the Leaf becomes a non-starter. They have concerns about battery replacement cost, which are perfectly legit since Nissan still hasn't given us one.
adric22 said:
  • I would have never guessed the rise of the "Ev-hater" and the negativity from a small, but very vocal portion of the population. I have been totally baffled by this unexpected segment of the population which seem highly emotional and extremely uninformed.
    ...
  • The battery degradation issue caught me by surprise. Not only the fact that it exists, but by the number of people who were upset by it (even if they hadn't experienced it themselves) and by the lack of response from Nissan.
  • And yes - I honestly expected sales would be much higher for both the Volt and Leaf. THe first few months the demand greatly outpaced the supply. I figured this would continue for a few years much like the Toyota Prius had during the 2004 model year.
I'm not surprised. Judging by the hybrid hate and misinformation, it spreading to EVs is no surprise. You should be very familiar with that.

I am still disappointed by how Nissan has handled that situation. They've taken some positive steps but still to me aren't handling it well. We all know degradation will happen, but to have it happen so soon in hot climate areas is disturbing.

I expected sales to be higher for the Leaf and Volt, but not much higher.

I think GRA's first two paragraphs are spot on.
 
Thanks to evnow for starting this thread! It's great to read the different retrospectives from various posters here! We all came to this party with different expectations and each of us have had different experiences, even if our cars are quite similar.

Even though we (the Guheerts) are only nine months into our EV journey, our LEAF was manufactured 18 months ago. I'd like to add my list of "lessons learned" to this thread.

- At this point, EVs are not nearly the slam-dunk that current grid-tied solar appears to be. Many of us here have both the LEAF and grid-tied PV panels and my observation is that our satisfaction level with our PV investments tends to be generally higher. That said, I would say that the satisfaction level with the LEAF is higher than I've ever observed for off-grid PV. That's an important comparison to me, since both technologies are dependent on large storage batteries.

- I am very favorably impressed with the engineering of the "vehicle" portions of the LEAF. With 50,000 of these vehicles on the road today, I think it can be reasonably said that it has proven to be a very reliable transportation solution. Many people simply will not tolerate a vehicle which leaves them stranded on the side of the road and the LEAF has provided nearly every owner with many, many worry-free trips (range anxiety aside). We have four vehicles, but the LEAF is, by far, our first choice for transportation.

- I am unfavorably impressed with many of the creature comforts included in the LEAF. Two exceptions are the built-in garage-door opener and the backup camera. We love those things! But the following items really should have had more attention from the engineering departments at Nissan (in order of annoyance): climate control, Carwings, Bluetooth, energy displays and navigation. With the exceptions of climate control and energy displays, all of these features are new to us as built-in features, but they just lack polish or the kind of attention to detail that we see in the transportation aspects of the vehicle.

- I have not experienced any EV hatred behaviors since we purchased the LEAF. My observation is that most people we have met 1) are genuinely interested in knowing more about the vehicle, 2) had no idea that electric-only vehicles existed, 3) have a rough idea of the limitations of an EV and are actively adjusting their views of those limitations as I explain about our experiences and 4) usually are not a good fit as EV owners due to their situation/requirements (many around here have longer commutes).

- I consider worldwide sales numbers for the LEAF to be quite good. My observation is that Nissan has done several things that will help the LEAF to be a market success over time: 1) They designed the vehicle for standard mass production, 2) They build the LEAF on the same manufacturing line with gasoline-powered cars, thus allowing them to tailor production rates to demand without shutting down the line, and 3) They are beginning to manufacture the LEAF in each of the target markets, which will allow them to tailor design, features, marketing, etc. to each market. If they can hold on to their long-term vision for the product, these things should help them to stay the course so that the LEAF can mature to meet more and more needs of potential customers.

- EV "value" is much more related to electricity costs than I had realized. In areas where electricty is inexpensive, like around here, an EV can often be justified purely on the fuel savings alone. In other areas, the cost of electricity may not make fuel savings nearly as attractive. I think this is one reason that PV solar is an important partner technology to EVs: PV tends to cap the fuel price for EV charging. Without it, the cost of fueling an EV is just as indeterminant as the cost of fueling a gasoline car.

That's enough for now. I'm looking forward to reading more owners' retrospectives!
 
evnow said:
...The reality is a bit different - quite a bit different. Once the activitists, who numbers a few thousand, had their Leafs hardly anyone wanted to buy a Leaf. Even with easy availability, Leaf sales were stuck around 500 a month...

Yes, they were stuck there, until various incentives lowered the effective cost to the 20 to 25 thousand dollar price level for most buyers, at which point US LEAF sales tripled, even with the 2013 LEAF introduction (with significant improvements anticipated) only a few months away.

I just think that the demand for LEAFs and any other (if and when they are introduced) mass-market BEVs in the US will be highly elastic by price, which should be no great surprise. If my effective LEAF price had been much higher than it was (~$22k, IIRC) I would probably not have purchased one either.

So the big question, IMO, is at what price point Americans will buy BEVs in the large numbers required to lower production costs, and whether Nissan or any other mass market BEV manufacturer can achieve profit at that price/demand level.

And I think we'll know a lot more when Nissan ramps up US production next year, and we can see what price Americans will be willing to pay for the 2013s.
 
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