GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:35 pm

Zythryn wrote:
GRA wrote:
Zythryn wrote: Isn’t this rather arbitrary and pointless.
It's somewhat arbitrary, but not pointless. If PEVs are to become mass market, they must have mass market prices. The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. is currently about $36k. $40k was chosen way back when as both the LEAF and Volt had MSRPs below $40k. I personally consider $30k base MSRP as a better measure of the mass market, but given the dearth of PEVs available for that price at the time I chose the higher number, adding the lower price categories as cars became available in those price ranges. I'm still waiting for the first $20k PEV.
Zythryn wrote:This is only 33% of the EV market.

As such, it doesn’t give a very clear look at the EV market share as a whole.
Nor is it intended to. What the EV market as a whole shows is that PEVs generally, and BEVs specifically, are still in the early adopter phase of well-off people buying expensive toys because they can afford to. Until such time as affordable PEVs outsell luxury models, we won't have crossed the chasm to mass market appeal.
Interesting thesis, but isn’t the whole point to track how the EV market is changing as a whole?
Not in this thread. See below.
Zythryn wrote:The term “mass market” is also very arbitrary, and your use of the term “toy” comes across as derogatory.
Mass market implies that the average new car buyer can afford it. Think Camry/Accord/Civic/Corolla prices. "Toy" can be derogatory, but in this case it merely emphasizes that people who can afford Teslas and similarly-priced cars aren't making purchase decisions based primarily on the best auto transportation value for their dollar, but on other non-essential factors (for transportation; image/status/performance/environment etc. may be essential from a personal choice point of view, but not from a transportation point of view).
Zythryn wrote:New technology starts as generally, more expensive. Conclusions about the EV market made based on a minority of the market while ignoring the majority of it, are rather pointless.

What matters is the total EV units sold as a fraction of total cars sold.
Which is being tracked elsewhere, by me among many others. This topic is deliberately more limited. If you find it pointless, you can happily ignore it and go on with your life without wasting your time reading it, and those of us who think it's anything but pointless will continue to follow it, because we think it's a critical metric. The % of PEVs sold is also important, but as any major increase in that requires lower-priced vehicles that most people can afford, it is inextricably entwined with mass market-prices. To repeat a point made upthread, supposedly the size of the potential market for a car doubles (or halves) for every $5k decrease (increase) in MSRP. Obviously that's a general number, and $5k matters a lot more at the lower end of the price range than it does at the top, but it's still valuable. The size of the potential market for a $49k car will always be less than for a $40k, $30k, $25k or $20k car, regardless of how big the actual market for that car is at any one time due to other factors.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:45 pm

September's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]. The immediately preceding month's sales totals and percentages are in ( ) immediately following the current month's numbers:

BEV 3,474 (2,891), 30.4% (29.3%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV 7,966 (6,973), 70.7% (%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 11,440 (9,864). BEV/PHEV % +/- 1.1% (-/+ 1.4%).

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k:

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime 2,213 (2,071); Volt 2,129* (1,825*); Clarity 2,028 (1,495).
BEV: LEAF 1,563 (1,315); Bolt 1,549 (1,225*).

Entries followed by an asterisk are estimates of monthly production as GM only reports every quarter now. Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The Volt holds 2nd place over the Clarity PHEV. Sales of some semi-affordable BEVs, including the 500e, Soul EV and FFE dropped sharply; among PHEVs the Ioniq, Optima and Sonata all decreased considerably, some more 50%.


September's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV: 1,677 (1,451) 39.7% (37.6%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV: 2,549 (2,410), 60.3% (62.4%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ioniq PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 4,226 (3,861). +/- of 2.1% (+/- or 1.8%) for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Best sellers:

BEV: LEAF@ 1,563 (1,315).
PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,213 (2,071).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

September's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV: 98 (108), 89.9% (71.5%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV: 11 (43), 10.1% (28.5%): (1 type, IONIQ PHEV).

Ionic PHEV sales continue to tank, probably due to the Niro.
Last edited by GRA on Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

tattoogunman
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:39 pm

I think part of those numbers reflect availability. The Bolt is supposedly relatively difficult to find and other cars like the Ioniq EV/PHEV are also equally difficult to find and/or are only being sold in certain states (California, Oregon, etc.) whereas the Leaf seems to be more available. The dealership that I bought my 2015 from yesterday got in 26 new Leafs within the last month and they're down to only 6. Granted, they said most of those sales were to previous Leaf owners, but still. They said that they are seeing something like a 50/50 breakdown in their customers - 50% were returning Leaf owners trading in or surrendering their lease for the new model and the other 50% were completely new to EVs.

For what it's worth.

DanCar
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:21 am

I'll declare the Leaf the winner. :P
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jlv
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:20 am

DanCar wrote:I'll declare the Leaf the winner. :P
The Volt was still outselling the LEAF as of October and I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to do so for the rest of this year. It's sad that it took the discontinuation of the Volt for the LEAF to overtake it.
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GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:03 pm

Due to a combination of laziness, the holidays, losing my first attempt and the impending end of Volt production, I haven't done my usual monthly summary of semi-affordable PHEV and PEV sales for a couple of months now, and am disinclined to restart it. However, I will do an end of year summary just to tie things up.

2018 U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs.

BEV 40,544, 31.6%: (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV 87,890, 68.4%% (%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 128,434.

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k:

Best sellers (avg. over 1k/month):

PHEV: Prius Prime 27595; Clarity PHEV 18,602; Volt 18,3062,129* (1,825*); Clarity 2,028 (1,495).
BEV: Bolt 18,019; LEAF 14,715

As the sub-$40k Model 3 didn't appear, the sales share of semi-'affordable' BEVs vs. PHEVs remained below 1/3rd. With the expected 2019 arrival of the 200+ mile Kona, Niro, Soul, 60kWhr LEAF and (maybe) the Model 3 SR BEVs, we may finally see 'semi-affordable' BEVs being the majority of new sub-$40k U.S. PEV sales. We're still waiting for an semi-affordable long range AWD BECUV to really kick sales into high gear (a Model Y at that price point is years away, if it ever arrives), but the increased number of 200+ mile BEV models plus Electrify America's rapidly growing charging network augurs well for the next two years as the tipping point for the transition away from fossil-fueled vehicles in the U.S. OTOH, the start of the expiry of subsidies and the still too-high cost of these vehicles for the next several years is a hurdle that needs to be overcome before mass adoption (at least 15% of sales) will occur. PEVs made up just under 2.1% (361,307 / 17,274,250) of U.S. sales in 2018, but most of those vehicles were well over a mass market price.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:08 am

GRA wrote:As the sub-$40k Model 3 didn't appear, the sales share of 'affordable' BEVs vs. PHEVs remained below 1/3rd.
When a single "unaffordable" BEV OUTSELLS ALL PHEVs COMBINED in the U.S. in 2018, it takes a massive dose of cognitive dissonance to post that "affordable" PHEVs outsold "affordable" BEVs by over 3:1. We continue to be amazed at the lengths you will go to in order to try to convince yourself that your years-ago prediction that PHEVs would outsell BEVs was not wrong.

But the simple fact is that BEVs now account for 67% of global PEV sales and 65% of the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, all of my predictions that the LEAF would outsell the Volt this year have also been flat wrong.
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:30 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:As the sub-$40k Model 3 didn't appear, the sales share of 'affordable' BEVs vs. PHEVs remained below 1/3rd.
When a single "unaffordable" BEV OUTSELLS ALL PHEVs COMBINED in the U.S. in 2018, it takes a massive dose of cognitive dissonance to post that "affordable" PHEVs outsold "affordable" BEVs by over 3:1. We continue to be amazed at the lengths you will go to in order to try to convince yourself that your years-ago prediction that PHEVs would outsell BEVs was not wrong.

But the simple fact is that BEVs now account for 67% of global PEV sales and 65% of the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, all of my predictions that the LEAF would outsell the Volt this year have also been flat wrong.
Reg, Happy New Year! I see the holidays have made you sweeter than ever, and even more willing to read what I write instead of what you think I mean based on your suspicions of the clandestine motivations I must have. Enjoy!

Now, as to the meat of your comments, I have no disagreement with the numbers you quote. The point I've been making all along is that sales of cars costing well over the median transaction price (and well over what most people can afford) are inherently limited to the well-off, and thus their sales potential is limited, and cannot reach mass-market numbers. Nothing in the Model 3's sales contradicts this. Or do you believe that a car which is currently base-priced $9k over the roughly $35k median transaction price (and most have sold for thousands more) can sustainably sell in mass market numbers, once the backlog is gone? Are you also surprised that the Prime outsold either the Volt or Clarity by about 1.5:1?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Lothsahn
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:00 pm

GRA wrote:Or do you believe that a car which is currently base-priced $9k over the roughly $35k median transaction price (and most have sold for thousands more) can sustainably sell in mass market numbers, once the backlog is gone?
I certainly do. If you include the gas savings over 100k miles @ $3/gal, that's $6000. That means that the car has a $3k price premium over an ICE for the first 100k miles, not counting reduced maintenance costs. $3k over MTP absolutely seems achievable for mass market adoption.

Note: I have no financial stake in Tesla.
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GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:26 pm

Lothsahn wrote:
GRA wrote:Or do you believe that a car which is currently base-priced $9k over the roughly $35k median transaction price (and most have sold for thousands more) can sustainably sell in mass market numbers, once the backlog is gone?
I certainly do. If you include the gas savings over 100k miles @ $3/gal, that's $6000. That means that the car has a $3k price premium over an ICE for the first 100k miles, not counting reduced maintenance costs. $3k over MTP absolutely seems achievable for mass market adoption.

Note: I have no financial stake in Tesla.
\Which assumes that the economy doesn't go sour in the time that it takes for you to break even. Seeing as how we're about due for a recession, I wonder how many of the people who stretched to buy a Model 3 instead of a Camry/Accord or similarly-priced car that they'd normally buy will think it's a bargain if that happens, or will the monthly payments sink them if they lose their jobs? And will those who haven't bought yet be willing to make that stretch given economic uncertainty? The people who can routinely buy luxury-priced products are less price sensitive than the rest of us, and the loss of the tax credits and other rebates will be a minor factor in their car-buying decision, but that's not the case in the mass market. Just to compare some mass-market vs. entry-level lux MSRPs:

2019 Base MSRP:

Hyundai Kona $19,990
Accord $23,720
Prius $23,770
Camry $23,845
Prime $27,350
Camry HEV $28,150

Volt $33,520
Clarity PHEV $33,400
Kona BEV $36,450

BMW 3-ser. $40,250
Mod 3 MR $44,000

So, while the difference between a base 3-series and a (black) Model 3 MR is only $3,750 ($5,250-$6,250 if you want some other color), the difference between a gas Kona and the BEV is $16,460, and the Kona BEV and a (black) M3 MR of the same range (not the same value) is $7,550. I figure the Niro BEV will come in a bit under $40k, so figure $4-$6k difference for the M3 MR, and I'm ignoring the extra $3,750 credit the Korean BEVs qualify for now, as some portion of their buyers may not qualify for the full amount.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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