EIA forecasts US crude oil production rate to break record high in 2018 and again in 2019; 10.3 and 10.8 million b/d

[GRA]

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01 ... -steo.html

In its latest edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US crude oil production will average 10.3 million b/d in 2018—the highest annual average production in US history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA also forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will rise further to an average of 10.8 million b/d. US crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 and is estimated to have averaged 9.9 million b/d in December. . . .

[RegGuheert]

I never thought I would see the day when this happened.

How long before we become a net exporter again?

[WetEV]

I never thought I would see the day when this happened.

How long before we become a net exporter again?

The interesting question is how long does the fracking increase last?

We are past the peak of conventional oil, and conventional oil production has been declining.

Horizontal drilling and fracturing has different economics and geology. Best case is more expensive. Again, there will be a total recoverable reserve, and at some point in the future the production will peak and decline. Other higher cost reserves could then be tapped. Tar sands, oil shales and coal to liquids, in roughly that order. Cost might decide otherwise, if solar -> batteries is cheaper than coal -> liquids, very little coal will be Fisher Tropsch'ed into gasoline. If not stopped by economics, will be stopped by global warming.

I've not seen a believable total recoverable reserve estimate for fracking oil production. Still too many unknowns.

[DaveinOlyWA]

The easy answer; fracking will slow down when the fresh water supply runs out

[iPlug]

Have no worries. As most of the water cycle involves the ocean as a reservoir, the industry will claim fracking will lessen ocean level rise, thus causing and partially curing the problem.