GRA
Posts: 12386
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:43 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:48 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:41 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:18 pm
You don't see the advantages of BEVs to a lot of people today. <snip>

On the contrary, I see the advantages but they don't, which is the critical point.
Time is why everything doesn't happen at once.
Even in the U.S., a far higher number of people could benefit from PEVs now than do. My use case means I'm not one of them yet (I could use but not benefit from a PHEV, versus an HEV), but that doesn't apply to most of the people who can charge at home and commute on a daily basis by car, especially in multi-car households.

A few years back Plug-in America found that 56% of U.S. households could charge at home. There are currently about 128 million households in the U.S., so 56% would be ~72 million households that have the potential to benefit from a PEV, yet cumulative U.S. PEV sales to date are somewhere between 1 and 2% of that (and many of those cars are no longer in the fleet). The mass of the potential market remains either uninterested or unwilling to get one, for the reasons stated in the survey. Until PEVs can meet their needs and desires they aren't going to adopt them in large numbers. We move closer to that point all the time, but IMO we're still several years away.
US PEV sales are more than 1% to 2% of 56% of the market. More like almost 2% of the whole market last month, and more than 2% of the market in some past months. It's interesting how you have recast your "PEVs are less than 1% of the market" into PEVs are less than 2% of the market.

I expect you can use the same arguments at 4% of the market, 8% of the market, 16% of the market...

No, I said that cumulative sales only equal between 1 to 2% of the 56% of households they could reach (I changed it after I checked the numbers at IEVS). Many of those households have bought more than one PEV, either because they decided they can go all PEV or because they've upgraded their BEV more than once as the old one no longer met their needs. We've got some people here on their third generation of BEV already. These are the people who already decided the advantages outweighed the disadvantages for them. That leaves the vast mass which remain unconvinced. Even among the believers, the market is supported almost wholly by a single brand and more specifically a single model - see
GCC: California BEV sales in Q2 stable from Q1; 5.5% market share; 73% Tesla
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=30219 and
Global EV Sales In July 2019: Growth Almost Stalled
https://insideevs.com/news/367908/globa ... july-2019/

The market is essentially stagnant now, and in the U.S., sales which are dependent on the continuing success of a single model which is still too expensive for most is not the mark of a resilient business environment. We need multiple successful models across a wide spectrum of car types and income demographics (particularly affordable CUVs now), so that the failure or even normal drop-off of one model doesn't leave a void.

I believe once we get to 5% of annual sales the momentum will start to build, at 10% the rate will increase, and once we hit 15% the cars will be mass market and the final decline of ICEs will begin. That will require lower prices. Bloomberg NEF estimates current pack costs at about $176/kWh, and forecasts $94/kWh by 2024 and $62/kWh by 2030. For the sake of argument let's assume that those numbers are accurate, and that the manufacturing costs of BEVs have the same ratio to MSRP (~50%) as ICEs do (I have no info on BEV manufacturing cost to MSRP ratios. Anyone?). That would drop the pack cost/MSRP of a 40kWh pack car (about the biggest pack needed for a car used for commuting and local use) from $7,040/$14,080 to $3,760/$7,520 by 2024 and $2,480/$4,960 by 2030. If we take a 40kWh LEAF S @ $30k now as the base, it would theoretically sell for $23,440 in 2024 and $20,880 in 2030. Will either be low enough to get people to accept a car that is limited to intra-regional use, when they could instead buy something like a Versa Note that will take them anywhere they want to go on pavement for $15,650? Barring a strong financial or other incentive to do so, I have my doubts.

And then, even when all sales are ZEVs from a given date, it will still take around 14-17 years to replace the existing fleet at current sales rates.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4052
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:17 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:43 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:48 am
I expect you can use the same arguments at 4% of the market, 8% of the market, 16% of the market...
No, I said that cumulative sales only equal between 1 to 2% of the 56% of households they could reach
Cumulative sales is a tactic to minimize the impact of a growing share.
GRA wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:43 pm
Global EV Sales In July 2019: Growth Almost Stalled
https://insideevs.com/news/367908/globa ... july-2019/

The market is essentially stagnant now, and in the U.S., sales which are dependent on the continuing success of a single model which is still too expensive for most is not the mark of a resilient business environment. We need multiple successful models across a wide spectrum of car types and income demographics (particularly affordable CUVs now), so that the failure or even normal drop-off of one model doesn't leave a void.
Only a 3% growth rate, worldwide. For one month.
Image

June, March and January don't look quite stagnant. February, April and May look pretty good. One month of "stagnant". Sell that, eh?

Tesla has a hot selling Model 3. I suspect every auto maker is trying to work out how they can copy that success. While many new models will not do so, sooner or later someone will have a model that does.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 12386
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:23 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:17 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:43 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:48 am
I expect you can use the same arguments at 4% of the market, 8% of the market, 16% of the market...
No, I said that cumulative sales only equal between 1 to 2% of the 56% of households they could reach
Cumulative sales is a tactic to minimize the impact of a growing share.

As we we were talking about the number of U.S. households who could benefit from a BEV but haven't bought one, it's an entirely appropriate metric.

WetEV wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:17 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:43 pm
Global EV Sales In July 2019: Growth Almost Stalled
https://insideevs.com/news/367908/globa ... july-2019/

The market is essentially stagnant now, and in the U.S., sales which are dependent on the continuing success of a single model which is still too expensive for most is not the mark of a resilient business environment. We need multiple successful models across a wide spectrum of car types and income demographics (particularly affordable CUVs now), so that the failure or even normal drop-off of one model doesn't leave a void.
Only a 3% growth rate, worldwide. For one month.
Image

June, March and January don't look quite stagnant. February, April and May look pretty good. One month of "stagnant". Sell that, eh?

Now let's look at the U.S (while remembering that China just reduced their subsidy and saw the usual sales drop): https://insideevs.com/news/343998/month ... scorecard/

Take a look at the bar chart: Jan-April even or slight increase, May and then June a spike while the Tesla buyers got theirs before the credits dropped again, then a biggish drop. Can Tesla keep reducing prices and also achieve profitability? Will the Model 3 be able to continue growing, or are we approaching the limit of the people with the income and interest to buy one?

WetEV wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:17 pm
Tesla has a hot selling Model 3. I suspect every auto maker is trying to work out how they can copy that success. While many new models will not do so, sooner or later someone will have a model that does.

Meanwhile, U.S. RAV4 sales alone for July were 39, 645, while total PEV sales were 27, 470, a drop of 2,300+ Y-o-Y. With the exception of the Model 3 (13,450 est.), not a single PEV reached even 3k U.S. sales in July (Prime @ 2,950 was closest). Hell, Toyota sold 26,878 hybrids in July (Rav4 hybrid alone 10,533), and hybrid sales have been stagnant or in decline. And the Rav4's just one ICE from one manufacturer, albeit a good-selling one.

So, do we agree that the Model 3 is carrying the PEV market on its back in the U.S., as Tesla has been doing pretty much since the Model S intro, and that if anything happens to its sales there's essentially just dribs and drabs left? Toyota is apparently developing a PHEV RAV4 so it has some possibilities, provided they do a proper job installing the battery pack and don't just sling it into the cargo area as they did with the Prime (and Subaru did with the Crosstrek, and Ford with the C-Max), but even if it's a success I'll be astonished if they reach 5k monthly sales at current gas prices. We need a lot more PEVs like that to reach a wider market.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Return to “Business / Economy and Politics”