2013 Sept. Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 1953 Volt 1766

[Deleted member 9549]

When Nissan announces the new LEAF has a 120 mile heat resistant battery and longer life..... that is when sales may start picking up.
Unfortunately that could be 2015 model year.

Its is well known and documented that the Nissan Leaf is production constrained. They're selling all they can. Sometime in the next couple of months they're supposed to increase production from 2000/mo to 2700/mo. Then folks will still wonder why it doesn't go higher. Again, it will be production constraints.

 

[TomT]

Kind of odd from Tennessee battery and vehicle manufacturing plants they are supposed to be able produce 6 figures of product a year...

Its is well known and documented that the Nissan Leaf is production constrained. They're selling all they can. Sometime in the next couple of months they're supposed to increase production from 2000/mo to 2700/mo. Then folks will still wonder why it doesn't go higher. Again, it will be production constraints.

 

[adric22]

Did anyone notice that the Energi Twins did really well last month? Seems they kind of got ignored.

Fusion Energi - 750
C-max Energi - 758
Focus EV - 110

So between all 3 vehicles Ford sold 1,618 plug-in vehicles in September. Not bad, eh?

 

[Nubo]

When Nissan announces the new LEAF has a 120 mile heat resistant battery and longer life..... that is when sales may start picking up.
Unfortunately that could be 2015 model year.

Its is well known and documented that the Nissan Leaf is production constrained. They're selling all they can. Sometime in the next couple of months they're supposed to increase production from 2000/mo to 2700/mo. Then folks will still wonder why it doesn't go higher. Again, it will be production constraints.

What's up with the 250,000/year capacity plant they were so proud of?

 

[Deleted member 9549]

They started making the 2014 in early August. It has been over 1.5 months since the restart, and inventory continues to go DOWN. It was above 5,100 at the beginning of the month, is nearly 4,200.

Need to look at the numbers by year.
2013 inventory end of August was 4750, now its 2860. Down 1890. So they've sold at least that many. 75% of the month passed, so figure another 25% sales = 2520 of the prior year.
2014 inventory end of August was 880, now its 1200, up 320.

I'd guess they'd sell more 2013s than 2014s because they're motivated to move them.

I'm guessing 3000-4000. Put me down for 3500.

Leaf, I haven't heard any dramatic news other than Edmunds saying shopping interest is up 120%. I don't see how they can sell much more than they have because they're not making them fast enough and haven't sped up the factory.

Leaf: 2200

Spark: inventory suggests no broader rollout. Fairly safe bet around 103.

Well I guess cars.com inventory numbers are not reliable. Who knew?

They show a reduction of 2013 Volt inventory by around 2200. (2526 2013s in inventory today).

That means car.com inventory is wrong. What happened to the almost 300 2013 Volts that cars.com says were removed from inventory that GM says were not sold? Could it be a delay in reporting and they were really sold during the prior record-breaking month?

I tend to be of the opinion that BEVs will sell better than PHEVs over the long run. You could argue September sales bear that out. The Leaf has outsold the Volt almost every month since its move to Tennessee production, even with Volt's $5,000 price drop. And GM still claims they're losing money on every sale.

Following the Apple motto, you could argue its better to do a few things well than try to do lots of things poorly. The Leaf is the best BEV sold nationwide at an affordable price. The only one really. Tesla is better but very expensive.

The Volt is a compromise. Not as good a gas vehicle as many, not the cheapest, not the longest range. Its ok at lots of things but not great. I think Nissan did the right thing. They designed a pleasant car comfortable to a big segment of the general population worldwide. Then equipped it with a comfortable electric drive train at the lowest cost they could while giving what they thought was the lowest necessary range.

If the Leaf had a gas engine, it would still be a comfortable popular car. The Volt is too cramped and too expensive. I'd like them to raise the ceiling, get rid of the center rib, make room to seat 5, more trunk space, move the batteries under the car Tesla style, use a smaller engine, give it more electric range. Maybe Volt v2 will be a hit. But maybe Leaf v2 will be a big hit as well. I'm still waiting around for Tesla v3, then game over.

 

[Deleted member 9549]

When Nissan announces the new LEAF has a 120 mile heat resistant battery and longer life..... that is when sales may start picking up.
Unfortunately that could be 2015 model year.

Its is well known and documented that the Nissan Leaf is production constrained. They're selling all they can. Sometime in the next couple of months they're supposed to increase production from 2000/mo to 2700/mo. Then folks will still wonder why it doesn't go higher. Again, it will be production constraints.

What's up with the 250,000/year capacity plant they were so proud of?

insideevs.com reports

In fact, an underestimating of demand for the LEAF by Nissan USA has caused an electrode shortage which has capped sales around the 2,000/month level since the new 2013 model was introduced last March.

I believe the electrodes still come from Japan and the cell and battery are assembled in Tennessee. The electrode is one of the hard parts to manufacture, not easily thrown together not capacity increased easily.

 

[ObjetDart]

There are currently 38 unsold 2013 LEAF SVs sitting in the lot of our local Nissan dealer.

I really don't understand how that can happen when LEAF sales are also supposedly "production constrained."

 

[Deleted member 9549]

There are currently 38 unsold 2013 LEAF SVs sitting in the lot of our local Nissan dealer.

I really don't understand how that can happen when LEAF sales are also supposedly "production constrained."

Do you expect a zero inventory and everyone orders them?
Where is this dealer? There aren't 38 unsold Leafs in my entire 1million+ metro area, 50 mile radius. Our inventory is 24 total in all dealerships. I have to do to a 150 mile radius before I exceed 38 Leafs, over to the next major metro area. Even then the total is only 49 Leafs.

 

[ObjetDart]

This is the dealership here in Eugene, OR. Here's their inventory page:

http://www.lithianissaneugene.com/new-inventory/index.htm?listingConfigId=auto-new&year=2013&model=LEAF&bodyStyle=&internetPrice=&start=0&sort=&facetbrowse=true&searchLinkText=SEARCH_INVENTORY&showInvTotals=false&showFacetCounts=true&showRadius=false&showReset=false&showSubmit=true&facetbrowseGridUnit=BLANK&showSelections=true&dependencies=model%3Amake%2Ccity%3Aprovince%2Ccity%3Astate" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now, I haven't personally gone there today to count LEAFs and verify that all 38 shown here are actually on the lot. But, every time I've been to that dealer recently there have always been a lot of LEAFs sitting around.

I'm not sure what I expect, really. But if LEAF sales are really constrained by production, I assume that means demand exceeds supply, and in turn that would suggest to me that new LEAFs would sell off the lot as soon as they show up at the dealership.

So all of this makes me think there's some sort of screw up at Nissan where they are shipping too many LEAFs out to Oregon and not enough elsewhere. But I really don't have any idea how any of that works, maybe it's the individual dealerships that are not ordering the right amount for their markets.

 

[Berlino]

Where is this dealer? There aren't 38 unsold Leafs in my entire 1million+ metro area, 50 mile radius. Our inventory is 24 total in all dealerships. I have to do to a 150 mile radius before I exceed 38 Leafs, over to the next major metro area. Even then the total is only 49 Leafs.

I'm guessing that you're not in a CARB-ZEV state. Nissan, understandably, does everything it can to flood the market where they earn ZEV credits, even if it means starving other areas.

There are ZERO unsold MY13 SV's in All of Canada. Some people here have signed contracts for that trim in July (when MY13 ordering was first opened in Canada) and are still waiting, with no definite delivery date.

As long as you can bank the various rebates, I'm pretty sure you could buy a new SV in Oregon, then sell it six months later to someone in British Columbia for a profit.

 

[Berlino]

This is the dealership here in Eugene, OR. Here's their inventory page:

http://www.lithianissaneugene.com/new-inventory/index.htm?listingConfigId=auto-new&year=2013&model=LEAF&bodyStyle=&internetPrice=&start=0&sort=&facetbrowse=true&searchLinkText=SEARCH_INVENTORY&showInvTotals=false&showFacetCounts=true&showRadius=false&showReset=false&showSubmit=true&facetbrowseGridUnit=BLANK&showSelections=true&dependencies=model%3Amake%2Ccity%3Aprovince%2Ccity%3Astate" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now, I haven't personally gone there today to count LEAFs and verify that all 38 shown here are actually on the lot. But, every time I've been to that dealer recently there have always been a lot of LEAFs sitting around.

The one thing that's a bit odd about that inventory listing is the range of VIN's. Comparing them to my June-manufactured LEAF, all of those vehicles, except one, were made no later then May. This makes me think the list is not up-to-date, but who knows?

 

[evnow]

The final numbers are in. Thanks to insidevs.com.

 

[evnow]

Now, I haven't personally gone there today to count LEAFs and verify that all 38 shown here are actually on the lot. But, every time I've been to that dealer recently there have always been a lot of LEAFs sitting around.

How many Leafs does the dealer sell per month. It is normal for the dealer to have about a month's inventory.

The way it works is the dealer orders the Leafs he wants (trims and options etc). Nissan allocates what they can - they usually allocate more to dealers who sell more - and this can become a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

[ObjetDart]

The one thing that's a bit odd about that inventory listing is the range of VIN's. Comparing them to my June-manufactured LEAF, all of those vehicles, except one, were made no later then May. This makes me think the list is not up-to-date, but who knows?

When I leased my LEAF from them back in July, they had over 50 LEAFs on the lot. I would not be surprised at all if many of the LEAFs there now have been sitting there for months. Eugene is not a very large town, I just don't see how they could be selling dozens of LEAFs per month here. If that were happening I'd be seeing a lot more of them on the road by now.

 

[blueblob06]

38 Leafs at one dealership? Wow.

I'm in Cincinnati and if I search a 30 mile radius from here, there are a total of 11 Leafs here! Yesterday, I was at a dealer who had 4 Leafs. So, all the other dealerships combined only have 7.

 

[scottf200]

Oct thread? EVNow usually like to put it together with his charts.

 

[evnow]

Oct thread? EVNow usually like to put it together with his charts.

Have been very busy ...