2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

[WetEV]

Your 2000 ICE miles have a fire risk equal to 22,000 Tesla miles using the more conservative stat.
Since your household driving is ~ 9k miles a year, you have increased your fire risk 2.44x compared to owning a Tesla and ditching the ICE.

Owning a Tesla wouldn't reduce my household's ICE miles.

The EV is wet, the other car isn't. Almost never. Unless she gets a bath, usually.

 

[johnlocke]

24 KWH batteries come in a least 3 versions, one of which can generally exceed the manufacturer warranty (60K mi.).

Ah, good. And the second version is the one I have, has an SOH of 89% as of today, and 43,861 miles. I don't think I'll have any problem exceeding 100k miles and 10 years. In a favorable climate, of course.

For the 30KWH battery, the latest firmware update seems to fix the warranty issue for Nissan. Nobody has reported any actual increase in range that I know of (and I have asked the question on the forum). The question of what was actually fixed is quite up in the air right now. If the firmware actually fixes a miscalculated SOH then the 30KWH battery will be on par with the 24 KWH ones which still won't be that good. It might push the failure range out to 6 years and 75K mi.

Actually you might actually want to actually read the actual test report...

https://flipthefleet.org/2018/30-kwh-nissan-leaf-firmware-update-to-correct-capacity-reporting/

Once the correction was applied, there was a close match between the energy stored in the battery as measured on the dynamometer and the energy reported by the car’s LBC, for all seven vehicles with firmware 4A. We therefore conclude that the recently available update is a genuine and accurate fix to the reporting problem identified in FTF’s March 2018 report. One can think of this correction as an improvement in the accuracy of the car’s fuel gauge, including a recalibration of how big the “tank” a Leaf has when fully charged, and the way this degrades as the car gets older.

With the warranty at 8 years or 100,000 miles, you then predict that almost all of the 30kWh batteries will be replaced under warranty even with the firmware update. So do explain how this "seems to fix the warranty issue"?

If MSRP isn't relevant, then how about average selling price before incentives? Oh yeah, remember to add in depreciation when you calculate that TCO.

Depreciation? Haven't owned the car for 10 years, so I have not yet a clue. No one has owned a LEAF long enough, yet. Assume zero value in 10 years, and I'm likely still below average TCO, assuming that repairs and maintenance stay realistic.

It fixes the problem by pushing the failure date far enough into future that Nissan hopes that the the clock runs out. It also saves them from having to provide two warranty replacement batteries during the 100K/8 yr warranty period. By the I did read the Report from New Zealand and I still don't have any real world confirmation of actual improvement in range after the update. Also the report doesn't address long term capacity issues but rather addresses the current failure mode. Assuming that the battery follows the same pattern as the 24 KWH, it still will probably fail inside the warranty period in warm climates. Since a 3 year old Leaf sells for about $10-12K and lease returns often get discounted to $9K depreciation runs$.75/mile before the tax breaks and about $.47 per mile after the tax breaks If you qualify for them. See, that wasn't too hard to do. Based on a 36K lease of course. $37K out the door less $10K incentives and $9K residual. If you plan to keep your car for 10 years better plan on at least one battery replacement out of your pocket(currently $8400 with exchange) unless you can live with 50% capacity.

 

[WetEV]

If you plan to keep your car for 10 years better plan on at least one battery replacement out of your pocket(currently $8400 with exchange) unless you can live with 50% capacity.

Actually I'm almost half way through the 10 year period and almost halfway to 100k miles, and I'm nowhere close to half way to needing a replacement battery.

Perhaps your pessimism is a tad bit overblown.

 

[GRA]

If you plan to keep your car for 10 years better plan on at least one battery replacement out of your pocket(currently $8400 with exchange) unless you can live with 50% capacity.

Actually I'm almost half way through the 10 year period and almost halfway to 100k miles, and I'm nowhere close to half way to needing a replacement battery.

Perhaps your pessimism is a tad bit overblown.

You live in the best climate for a non-TMS battery, but most U.S. LEAFs have been sold elsewhere, so your optimism is overblown for most owners, including the 40% or more who live in Cailfornia's urban areas.

 

[SageBrush]

I was thinking about why Seattle and its environs seem to be so LEAF friendly. I suspect it is not just the temperate climate but the rain. Those roads just do not heat up anywhere near what the LEAF hovers over in drier regions.

 

[WetEV]

If you plan to keep your car for 10 years better plan on at least one battery replacement out of your pocket(currently $8400 with exchange) unless you can live with 50% capacity.

Actually I'm almost half way through the 10 year period and almost halfway to 100k miles, and I'm nowhere close to half way to needing a replacement battery.

Perhaps your pessimism is a tad bit overblown.

You live in the best climate for a non-TMS battery, but most U.S. LEAFs have been sold elsewhere, so your optimism is overblown for most owners, including the 40% or more who live in Cailfornia's urban areas.

Oh, I know my case is better than average. I get that.

Johnlocke seems to think that I should expect to need a battery replacement. I disagree. What do you think?

 

[WetEV]

I was thinking about why Seattle and its environs seem to be so LEAF friendly. I suspect it is not just the temperate climate but the rain. Those roads just do not heat up anywhere near what the LEAF hovers over in drier regions.

Doesn't rain much in summer. That's when we use the ICE. Not to keep the LEAF out of the heat and dryness, mind you.

 

[johnlocke]

Actually I'm almost half way through the 10 year period and almost halfway to 100k miles, and I'm nowhere close to half way to needing a replacement battery.

Perhaps your pessimism is a tad bit overblown.

You live in the best climate for a non-TMS battery, but most U.S. LEAFs have been sold elsewhere, so your optimism is overblown for most owners, including the 40% or more who live in Cailfornia's urban areas.

Oh, I know my case is better than average. I get that.

Johnlocke seems to think that I should expect to need a battery replacement. I disagree. What do you think?

I'm willing to concede that you personally may never need a new battery since you live in an ideal climate for a Leaf. For anyone living in the South, Southwest or Gulf Coast states I stand by my conclusions. You may indeed get to 100K mi. with 80% of the battery capacity but it's not the norm in the US. Europe also seems to be favorable to Leafs as is Japan. I don't live in any of those places though. I live in southern California where Nissan sold a lot of these cars and the battery just doesn't hold up here. Nissan never mentions any of those problems to prospective owners or asks them to "baby" the battery. They just ignore the problem for the most part and only seem to care if the publicity is bad enough to hurt sales.

 

[SageBrush]

Oh, I know my case is better than average. I get that.

Not just 'better than average,' Seattle is an outlier.
There is Seattle environs, and then there is the 95% of the rest of the country that suffer varying degrees of bad.

 

[WetEV]

Oh, I know my case is better than average. I get that.

Not just 'better than average,' Seattle is an outlier.
There is Seattle environs, and then there is the 95% of the rest of the country that suffer varying degrees of bad.

Well, not really.

Based on climate, Syracuse, NY has the same aging factor (0.69) as Seattle.
Denver should be very slightly faster aging, (0.73)

Seattle isn't even the best climate. Bellingham WA, Big Bear CA and Juneau, AK are all better.

 

[WetEV]

I'm willing to concede that you personally may never need a new battery since you live in an ideal climate for a Leaf. For anyone living in the South, Southwest or Gulf Coast states I stand by my conclusions. You may indeed get to 100K mi. with 80% of the battery capacity but it's not the norm in the US.

I expect to pass 100k miles with more than 70%, and expect less than 80%. That isn't with a lizard battery but the second version which isn't as good.

If 24kWh LEAFs in Phoenix get just exactly hit warranty (60k miles to 70%) with the better than I have "lizard" battery, then people in Van Nuys, CA would just miss 100k. As in 98700 miles.

Have any lizard batteries been replaced under warranty yet? For example.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=20706&p=535577&hilit=lizard+battery+holding#p535549

Lost the 12th bar at 56k miles. In LA, southern California. Looks to me like is on track for 100k+ miles before losing the fourth bar. Warranty is for 60k miles.

I live in southern California where Nissan sold a lot of these cars and the battery just doesn't hold up here. Nissan never mentions any of those problems to prospective owners or asks them to "baby" the battery. They just ignore the problem for the most part and only seem to care if the publicity is bad enough to hurt sales.

The third 24kWh battery seems to be holding up fairly well. As is the 30kWh after correcting the BMS firmware issue.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

What seems like a benefit of great climate does have a two edged sword. A few here were able to qualify for a warranty exchange therefore "beating the clock" twice. Once by resetting it but also by getting a more advanced battery pack.

If the range was "doable" the best bet was replacing the original pack with a 2015 tech pack which has proven to be the best of the 24 kwh options.

I was kinda hoping that might be an option for my 40 kwh pack as "surviving" with 65% capacity would not be that much of a challenge. But the question remains whether I can get below 65% to get an exchange before 100,000 miles. This is the decision I have to make near the end of my 3 year lease. My residual ($9600_ is simply too low to not consider the possibility.

 

[WetEV]

But the question remains whether I can get below 65% to get an exchange before 100,000 miles. This is the decision I have to make near the end of my 3 year lease. My residual ($9600_ is simply too low to not consider the possibility.

Watch the Phoenix LEAFs. And similar very hot places.

If they get significant numbers of battery replacements before 40k miles or so, you might have a chance. If half get replacements before 35k miles, about 50% chance.

If half of the Phoenix LEAFs get replacements just before 100k miles, then you would have a 50% chance of getting to 287k miles before loss of fourth bar. Would you keep the car that long?

 

[specialgreen]

If you plan to keep your car for 10 years better plan on at least one battery replacement out of your pocket(currently $8400 with exchange) unless you can live with 50% capacity.

When we're talking about battery life, please avoid exaggeration.

Either the battery degrades more than 20% in 8 years, or it doesn't. If it degrades slower, the worst case is that you hit 80% one day outside warranty, or just under 2.5% loss per year. After 10 years, you'd still have 75% SOH (not 50%).

If it degrades faster that 2.5% per year, then you will have a battery replaced under warranty before 8 years. If the initial battery was replaced after 4 years and 1 day (5% degradation per year), then the replacement battery may reach 80% after 8 years and 2 days (2 days out of warranty). At 5% loss per year, after an additional 2 years, you'd be down to 70% (not 50%).

If there were a group of customers needing two battery replacements under warranty, the worst-case would be 7.5% loss per year, such that the 3rd battery reaches 80% one day outside the 8-year warranty. In that case, after 10 years, the car has 65% SOH, not 50%.

For a customer with 3 replacements under warranty, worst-case has the 4th pack reaching 80% 1 day outside 8 years (10% loss per year). After ten years, you'd have 60%, not 50%.

Since actual loss is not linear, I could believe that customers who degraded to 80% in 2 years might degrade to 50% in 2 more years. But I believe the percentage of 30kwhr owners getting a new pack every 24 months is small (even before the firmware correction). The comment "if you plan to keep your car for 10 years... live with 50%" implies that 50% after 10 years is the general case. I don't see how that statement can possibly be accurate.

 

[SageBrush]

If it degrades faster that 2.5% per year, then you will have a battery replaced under warranty before 8 years.

Closer to 4.5% a year.

Warranty is invoked when somewhere in the range of 60 - 65% of new battery capacity is reached.
So therein lies the rub: too much loss of range to be useful, not enough to invoke the warranty.

 

[WetEV]

If it degrades faster that 2.5% per year, then you will have a battery replaced under warranty before 8 years.

Closer to 4.5% a year.

And therein lies the rub: too much loss of range to be useful, not enough to invoke the warranty.

Back in 2012 I was arguing that people should plan for the warranty range, as well as for bad weather and such. "No Worries Range", about half of the EPA range, more or less depending on where you live. If the car isn't useful with 70% of battery capacity, buy a car with a bigger battery. Which didn't exist then.

4.5% a year is 70% after 8 years, 2.5% a year is 80% after 8 years. 4.5% is 16 years to 50%.

0.955^8 = 0.6918

 

[GRA]

Actually I'm almost half way through the 10 year period and almost halfway to 100k miles, and I'm nowhere close to half way to needing a replacement battery.

Perhaps your pessimism is a tad bit overblown.

You live in the best climate for a non-TMS battery, but most U.S. LEAFs have been sold elsewhere, so your optimism is overblown for most owners, including the 40% or more who live in Cailfornia's urban areas.

Oh, I know my case is better than average. I get that.

Johnlocke seems to think that I should expect to need a battery replacement. I disagree. What do you think?

I think you'll miss the warranty period given your situation, but as no U.S. LEAF has yet reached 8 years of age (let alone 10), it's an unknown.

 

[WetEV]

I think you'll miss the warranty period given your situation, but as no U.S. LEAF has yet reached 8 years of age (let alone 10), it's an unknown.

The test of time requires time.

 

[Reddy]

Back in 2012 I was arguing that people should plan for the warranty range, as well as for bad weather and such. "No Worries Range", about half of the EPA range, more or less depending on where you live. If the car isn't useful with 70% of battery capacity, buy a car with a bigger battery. Which didn't exist then.

4.5% a year is 70% after 8 years, 2.5% a year is 80% after 8 years. 4.5% is 16 years to 50%.

0.955^8 = 0.6918

Yes, I remember that and it sure seemed pessimistic at the time (weren't we all a bunch of wide-eyed optimists?). Now, it's definitely sage advice. I got the 2011 knowing that my 10-20 mi daily use would be absolutely fine for many years. I didn't lease because at 7000 mi/yr it was a good financial decision. Unfortunately, technology moves fast, and I'm now left with a perfectly usable short-range EV that very few people want, even at a ridiculously depreciated cost of $5000-$6000. Well, thankfully I can still use it, but I really want one of those new shiny toys.

 

[WetEV]

it sure seemed pessimistic at the time (weren't we all a bunch of wide-eyed optimists?). Now, it's definitely sage advice.

Thanks. I've moved from being the pessimist to being the optimistic without me changing all that much. I now also want a larger battery, as I have now have once a monthly longer distance trips for a while, and need two DCQC sessions in good weather, and probably will need three in winter. Would be nice to have a battery large enough so I could make the round trip with no charge stops.

This means I might have to sell the current Leaf. Usually I get rid of a car by calling "Take My Car Please" and saying something the car is old, ugly and the tranny just made a real loud noise and sprayed tranny fluid all over my driveway. Can you take my car? Please?

Actually selling a car is more work.