2016 Leaf: How many kWh needed, and at what price?

[johnqh]

Rent a car when you take long trips.

Even if you own ICE, you should do that.

I've often thought about doing that. Definitely tempting to take a rental on my 2200 mile trip in a few weeks as opposed to my eighteen year old (but only 107,000 miles) ICE car. But the ICE car gets used little enough as it is.

If I lived where it was more convenient to get rentals I could get rid of the ICE car entirely. Those who live within pick-up/drop-off distance of rental or car sharing companies might be able to do that.

The reason for rental:
1. depreciation. Each mile causes about $0.10 to $0.20 in depreciation for a car with moderate age. The number should be much lower for your 18-year ICE car. Still, let's put a number on it. I think it is fair to say the trip will cost you $50 in depreciation.
2. gas mileage. Often, we can rent a car with way better mileage than the one we have. This can be a major factor for you. Assuming your 18-yo car gets 20 mpg, and you can rent a 30 mpg car, the gas saving is close to $160.

So #1 and #2 together is #210. That's enough to offset most of the car rental cost.

3. More importantly, peace of mind. What happens if you break down in the middle of the trip? With a rental, call them up and have them deal with it. With your own car, it is a disaster and completely ruin your trip. This is a more important factor for your 18yo car.

But I understand the issue with the location of rental car companies. That's why I think they should install EVSE at their customer parking and make it a free/moderate fee long term parking for the EV duration of the rental.

I have a Leaf right now. I may replace my other ICE with a Smart fortwo ED in a couple of years. A major factor is that now I have severn zip cars (including SUV and van) in three locations within 3 blocks of my house, so I can take the minimalist approach with my own vehicles instead of trying to cover all usages.

 

[ERG4ALL]

I too believe that the larger the battery, the more electricity is consumed when accelerating. However, it may not be as bad as one may think. First, the real drain is the inertia the mass causes. When accelerating a mass the energy required, I believe, goes up by the square of the acceleration although there are probably some engineers out there that could put a finer point on it. Thus, the more moderately we accelerate will lessen the effect that the added mass has. Then, once up to speed the added mass only adds slightly to the friction of the tires which would run a little lower and bend the plies at a sharper angle creating more heat. But this may be overcome by a redesign of the tires and suspension that would allow higher inflation pressures. Once up to speed then the aerodynamics are the aerodynamics which is more related to the shape of the vehicle rather than the mass. And, finally, with more mass you have more kinetic energy stored in movement which can be partially recovered with regenerative braking.

Therefore, for me, I would like to see a 85 kWh battery that Tesla has if I could afford it. I need an honest 250 mile range so I can spend the summers in the mountains and the winters in the valley and never need an ICE vehicle.

 

[N952JL]

Rent a car when you take long trips.

Even if you own ICE, you should do that.

I've often thought about doing that. Definitely tempting to take a rental on my 2200 mile trip in a few weeks as opposed to my eighteen year old (but only 107,000 miles) ICE car. But the ICE car gets used little enough as it is.

If I lived where it was more convenient to get rentals I could get rid of the ICE car entirely. Those who live within pick-up/drop-off distance of rental or car sharing companies might be able to do that.

The reason for rental:
1. depreciation. Each mile causes about $0.10 to $0.20 in depreciation for a car with moderate age. The number should be much lower for your 18-year ICE car. Still, let's put a number on it. I think it is fair to say the trip will cost you $50 in depreciation.
2. gas mileage. Often, we can rent a car with way better mileage than the one we have. This can be a major factor for you. Assuming your 18-yo car gets 20 mpg, and you can rent a 30 mpg car, the gas saving is close to $160.

So #1 and #2 together is #210. That's enough to offset most of the car rental cost.

3. More importantly, peace of mind. What happens if you break down in the middle of the trip? With a rental, call them up and have them deal with it. With your own car, it is a disaster and completely ruin your trip. This is a more important factor for your 18yo car.

But I understand the issue with the location of rental car companies. That's why I think they should install EVSE at their customer parking and make it a free/moderate fee long term parking for the EV duration of the rental.

I have a Leaf right now. I may replace my other ICE with a Smart fortwo ED in a couple of years. A major factor is that now I have severn zip cars (including SUV and van) in three locations within 3 blocks of my house, so I can take the minimalist approach with my own vehicles instead of trying to cover all usages.

I have thought about using a rental, but the cost for a rental car for one week is greater than the 210.00 savings quoted. Also that is assuming I can get a rental that gives me 30 mpg. Last one I rented was no where near that, more like 20. Last my 10 year old ICE does give me an honest 30 mpg on road tips. (2003 Toyota Camary) So where are the savings.

 

[johnqh]

I have thought about using a rental, but the cost for a rental car for one week is greater than the 210.00 savings quoted. Also that is assuming I can get a rental that gives me 30 mpg. Last one I rented was no where near that, more like 20. Last my 10 year old ICE does give me an honest 30 mpg on road tips. (2003 Toyota Camary) So where are the savings.

I believe what you say, but I also believe in comparing apple to apples.

The only Toyota Camry which can get 30mpg is stick shift 4-cylinder, and that's highway mileage. You can easily rent a Ford Focus which gives you 37 mpg on highway.

And using Blue Book, Comparing apple-to-apple,

Camry LE 4-cyn stick shift with 107000 miles in excellent condition, $6390
Exact same card, same condition, but with 109200 miles in excellent condition, $6290.

That's $100 depreciation.

2200/30 = 77. 2200/36 = 61. You save 16 gallons on gas. About $50.

With 2200 miles, You also need to pro-rate an oil change into it (5000 miles interval?). Assuming the oil change costs $30, the trip costs you about $12.

It is up to you to decided whether the rental cost - 100 - 50 - 12 is worth the peace of mind.

BTW, where I am at, 1 week rental is $229.50.

---------------

More importantly, let's look at your annual cost if you have an EV + rental for long trips comparing to Camry.

Assuming your annual mileage is 9000 miles (2200 is about 30%).

By driving Camry, your gas cost is 300 x 4 = $1200. Plus two oil change at $30 each. Total cost is $1260.

If you drive an EV for 6800 miles, at 3c/mile, the electricity cost is $200. Plus rental car cost $230, plus gas cost for the 2200 trip. 61x4=244. Your total annual cost is $444.

$1260 and $444, that's the difference of using a one-car-for-all ICE car (a pretty good one, I may add), and EV for daily commute, and rental for long trips.

 

[Caracalover]

In three years it may no longer be a question. Tesla may have a way to go 1000 miles (or more) with a disposable/swappable hybrid battery system in an afforcdable sedan by then, and Nissan and the others should be worried. A bigger battery means more weight, and that means most of the time you are wasting energy. So for me, the larger battery is silly as it normally isn't used. Even now the Model S gives you the larger (60KWH) battery even if you want the small one. The software stops you from accessing it, but if you need it, call them and they can unlock it. I see this as a baby step to what is to come.

A disposable or swappable additional pack (likely not lithium based, but metal based) being available for longer trips will eliminate this problem. Use the lithium for the day to day, and the metal based batttery when you need the range. Within a few more years (2020?) that will likely become the norm if Tesla doesn't opt to keep the tech to itself, which I doubt they will do.

Exciting time!

 

[johnqh]

A disposable or swappable additional pack (likely not lithium based, but metal based) being available for longer trips will eliminate this problem. Use the lithium for the day to day, and the metal based batttery when you need the range. Within a few more years (2020?) that will likely become the norm if Tesla doesn't opt to keep the tech to itself, which I doubt they will do.

Exciting time!

I have the same idea. A space to plug in additional battery pack for extended range will be nice. If you want to take a long trip, drive to the nearest Nissan dealer to RENT the extended range pack for another 200 miles.

And you can drive to a different dealer to exchange the pack for a newly charged one.

 

[DanCar]

In three years it may no longer be a question. Tesla may have a way to go 1000 miles (or more)...snip...

It is possible today. It is called a generator trailer.

 

[dgpcolorado]

The reason for rental:
1. depreciation. Each mile causes about $0.10 to $0.20 in depreciation for a car with moderate age. The number should be much lower for your 18-year ICE car. Still, let's put a number on it. I think it is fair to say the trip will cost you $50 in depreciation.
2. gas mileage. Often, we can rent a car with way better mileage than the one we have. This can be a major factor for you. Assuming your 18-yo car gets 20 mpg, and you can rent a 30 mpg car, the gas saving is close to $160.

So #1 and #2 together is #210. That's enough to offset most of the car rental cost.

3. More importantly, peace of mind. What happens if you break down in the middle of the trip? With a rental, call them up and have them deal with it. With your own car, it is a disaster and completely ruin your trip. This is a more important factor for your 18yo car.

But I understand the issue with the location of rental car companies. That's why I think they should install EVSE at their customer parking and make it a free/moderate fee long term parking for the EV duration of the rental.

I have a Leaf right now. I may replace my other ICE with a Smart fortwo ED in a couple of years. A major factor is that now I have severn zip cars (including SUV and van) in three locations within 3 blocks of my house, so I can take the minimalist approach with my own vehicles instead of trying to cover all usages.

I'm considering it. Renting a car is more expensive—the gas savings is only part of the cost—but there is some advantage to your point three. The rental cost would be about $289 for two weeks, plus taxes I presume. Call it $310. My '96 Jeep Cherokee gets about 25 mpg on that 2200 mile trip. My guess is that the rental would get about 40 mpg. [If those numbers seem high, it is likely because most of the trip is at high altitude and I keep my speed at 65 mph despite the 75 mph speed limit (Colorado, Utah, Idaho).] So, at $3.50/gal the gas savings would be about $116. Actually somewhat less than that because the rental would involve about 70 miles additional to pick up and drop off.

Depreciation on such an old ICE car is hard to figure, it is worth so little that a couple thousand extra miles is almost irrelevant. Maintenance is also hard to figure. I am at the point where I tend to change the oil once a year whether I hit 3000 miles or not. Other things like radiator flushes should probably be done on a time basis rather than mileage. Tune-ups are mileage based.

In one sense, I should drive my ICE car because otherwise why have it? But when I think about going to one car (LEAF) the sheer hassle factor of renting a car for one or two day trips becomes prohibitive. As I said before, if I lived in a city within delivery range for rentals that option would be more attractive. But begging rides from neighbors to pick up a rental every time I wanted to take a trip over 80 miles or so would get old I think. So, tempting though it is, going to one car is impractical where I live (and what happens if the LEAF breaks down and needs repair?). And I think rental companies tend to restrict the use of cars on dirt roads, which is much of the use of my Jeep.

But I may just do what you suggest for my annual 2200 mile trip to Oregon; I've though about it before.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

gee. around here you might be able to rent a Fiesta for that little and a Living Social voucher maybe

but the money you pay for the rental is really not that bad for short 2-3 week periods because the alternative of having an ICE lying around just in case is much more expensive and it only takes a few months to get there.

When I got my LEAF, we kept the 2nd Prius for 3 months and it was a hassle. the car was never needed one single time. So we had to start it up, move it around (our HOA does not allow permanent parking on the street unless you are actively deployed in the military and even that does not work well either. Our neighbor went to Iraq for a year and had his Chevy 4X4 parked in front of his house (his wife was home) and it was towed by the HOA after 7 months or so of sitting in the same place. needless to say, that the main point of gossip in the neighborhood for a month!) keep the battery going, etc.

also, it was a lot of money that was really doing nothing for us. We sold it for $13,500 and used the money to take a vacation...in the LEAF!

 

[jlsoaz]

gee. around here you might be able to rent a Fiesta for that little and a Living Social voucher maybe

but the money you pay for the rental is really not that bad for short 2-3 week periods because the alternative of having an ICE lying around just in case is much more expensive and it only takes a few months to get there.

When I got my LEAF, we kept the 2nd Prius for 3 months and it was a hassle. the car was never needed one single time. So we had to start it up, move it around (our HOA does not allow permanent parking on the street unless you are actively deployed in the military and even that does not work well either. Our neighbor went to Iraq for a year and had his Chevy 4X4 parked in front of his house (his wife was home) and it was towed by the HOA after 7 months or so of sitting in the same place. needless to say, that the main point of gossip in the neighborhood for a month!) keep the battery going, etc.

also, it was a lot of money that was really doing nothing for us. We sold it for $13,500 and used the money to take a vacation...in the LEAF!

Hi Dave:

I quite liked dgpcolorado's points and your points about hassle. In dgpColorado's case the point was about the hassle of renting. In your case, and to a little extent mine, it is about putting attention on the hassles of ownership.

I think both ownership and rental have their hassle aspects and the exact aspects can be different for each of us. Some of us do not have parking concerns, for example, which would lower the hassle of ownership. At the same time, the hassle of renting may be a bit lower for some of us, such as if a rental agency is along our longer routes, and so then the hassle of renting is lower. The unifying theme here for me is the validity of putting some significant focus and some significant negative value on the hassle factor.

On a separate matter, I think you are not quite seeing that for some, the costs of ICV ownership were and are much lower than the ones you personally experienced. If you own a vehicle outright and if the bluebook on it is less than $2k (or whatever), and if the vehicle is in decent condition requiring relatively little maintenance or attention, then it is a far different cost equation than the one you portrayed with the Prius valued at $13.5k (where depreciation and maybe payments would be a concern, depending if you own it outright).

As another poster pointed out, the costs of putting miles on a very low priced vehicle that seems to require little maintenance or fuel are not that high.

I guess I think that since the cost equations come down so much, (almost a sort of "vehicular asymptote"?) IMO it becomes a matter of personal preference and needs. I elected to get rid of mine, in part due to the lingering hassle/responsibilities and in part due to the lingering costs, and I may regret it, but it's what I decided. I respect that others may face very similar equations and elect to keep theirs, or their equations may be substantially different due to a variety of factors (different distances to cover, distances from rental agencies, some nuances of the condition or expected condition of the vehicle, etc.).

One thing I didn't anticipate was that as I drove my new Leaf around, it became a bit more difficult for me to get into a 17 year old escort wagon. I had always thought its safety felt ok, but in retrospect perhaps it was inevitable that in allowing myself to drive around a decent new car I would come to not feel as comfortable getting into a car that may not handle quite as well and that doesn't have some modern safety features or feeling (camera for backing up, etc.). So, I don't think it was just the hassle or the cost, but also the "feeling".... I spoiled myself a bit by having ready access every day to a nice new car.

 

[N952JL]

I have thought about using a rental, but the cost for a rental car for one week is greater than the 210.00 savings quoted. Also that is assuming I can get a rental that gives me 30 mpg. Last one I rented was no where near that, more like 20. Last my 10 year old ICE does give me an honest 30 mpg on road tips. (2003 Toyota Camary) So where are the savings.

I believe what you say, but I also believe in comparing apple to apples.

The only Toyota Camry which can get 30mpg is stick shift 4-cylinder, and that's highway mileage. You can easily rent a Ford Focus which gives you 37 mpg on highway.

And using Blue Book, Comparing apple-to-apple,

Camry LE 4-cyn stick shift with 107000 miles in excellent condition, $6390
Exact same card, same condition, but with 109200 miles in excellent condition, $6290.

That's $100 depreciation.

2200/30 = 77. 2200/36 = 61. You save 16 gallons on gas. About $50.

With 2200 miles, You also need to pro-rate an oil change into it (5000 miles interval?). Assuming the oil change costs $30, the trip costs you about $12.

It is up to you to decided whether the rental cost - 100 - 50 - 12 is worth the peace of mind.

BTW, where I am at, 1 week rental is $229.50.

---------------

More importantly, let's look at your annual cost if you have an EV + rental for long trips comparing to Camry.

Assuming your annual mileage is 9000 miles (2200 is about 30%).

By driving Camry, your gas cost is 300 x 4 = $1200. Plus two oil change at $30 each. Total cost is $1260.

If you drive an EV for 6800 miles, at 3c/mile, the electricity cost is $200. Plus rental car cost $230, plus gas cost for the 2200 trip. 61x4=244. Your total annual cost is $444.

$1260 and $444, that's the difference of using a one-car-for-all ICE car (a pretty good one, I may add), and EV for daily commute, and rental for long trips.

I have the gas logs to prove the 2003 4cyl Camry with 67K is getting 30 mpg +- 1mpg Highway. Best was a few years ago at about 32+mpg highway. It has been a very good car. With this car the deprecipation is null as it is the age that has already brought it down not the mileage.

 

[GRA]

One thing I didn't anticipate was that as I drove my new Leaf around, it became a bit more difficult for me to get into a 17 year old escort wagon. I had always thought its safety felt ok, but in retrospect perhaps it was inevitable that in allowing myself to drive around a decent new car I would come to not feel as comfortable getting into a car that may not handle quite as well and that doesn't have some modern safety features or feeling (camera for backing up, etc.). So, I don't think it was just the hassle or the cost, but also the "feeling".... I spoiled myself a bit by having ready access every day to a nice new car.

I know what you mean. My first car (learned to drive in it) was a '65 Impala, which had front lap belts (buckets) only; the seat backs didn't even lock. I shudder now to think that I used to haul up to four boy scouts around in that. If it got in an accident it would crush newer cars, but since my head would be through the windshield and/or my sternum impaled on the steering column, I wouldn't be able to enjoy it.

The next after that was a '69 Datsun 2000 Roadster, bought used in '78; lap belts only plus a padded steering column, and instant death or severe injury in an accident, but a blast to drive hard for an hour. I knew the risk and accepted it, and don't recall ever letting it bother me. Well, except the day I bought it, when about an hour after picking it up in the early evening from the previous owner I was doing 113 on an empty rural road I wasn't that familiar with and the high beams suddenly dimmed to a fraction of full output, thus barely enabling me to see the '35 mph' curve sign shortly before encountering the declining radius turn with a solid wood guardrail on the outside. I made it around the corner doing 80, after a 5th to 4th to 3rd downshift that sent the tach needle well past the redline and by standing on the (always weak) brakes. I pulled over and stopped and spent a few minutes letting my pulse return to normal, realizing that I'd just come closer to checking out that at any previous point in my then-short life, then drove sedately home. I never did anything that stupid again in that car, but I did continue to enjoy driving it hard and fast.

My last two cars have been bought new and are far safer, but they also lack a lot of the character the earlier ones, especially the Datsun, did. I bought them for their utility, long-term durability and low-cost of ownership, not performance, and I don't generally drive the way I did in my teens and early '20s; not at $4.00/gallon. OTOH, when the opportunity occasionally arises to drive a car that encourages spirited driving while also having all the modern safety aids, I'll still go to town.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

the Prius I sold for $13.5K I had no payments on. just insurance which was running about $400 every 6 months at the time. but supposing I used the car 3 times that year. I am out $800 in insurance, $150 in maintenance and $XX in depreciation.

now when the other Prius was wrecked, I was given a discount on a rental to use so I had it 3 weeks and it only cost $300 and change but that was like a 60% discount (I think...) from the regular price and it was for a Fiesta which was the cheapest car they had.

 

[braineo]

have you heard of relayrides.com ?

 

[jlsoaz]

have you heard of relayrides.com ?

I had heard of them, but I must confess, had not considered trying them for awhile. Will keep it in mind.

 

[FormerFF]

Back to the original question. Nissan sent me a survey on range and price,a nd what I answered was 120 miles and $30,000. I suspect that with the current incentives, they could build that car today.

 

[jlsoaz]

Back to the original question. Nissan sent me a survey on range and price,a nd what I answered was 120 miles and $30,000. I suspect that with the current incentives, they could build that car today.

I don't know if Nissan could or couldn't build that today, but it looks like within a few years, Tesla will build something like a $30k EV. I don't know if they've said anything about range.

 

[KJD]

The Leaf has an EPA range of 75 miles and price of about 30k and the biggest complaint is lack of range.

The Tesla has an EPA range of 260 miles and a price of about 80k and the biggest complaint is high purchase price.

The company that gets to the middle ground the fastest will own the EV market IMO. Comments?

 

[johnqh]

The Leaf has an EPA range of 75 miles and price of about 30k and the biggest complaint is lack of range.

The Tesla has an EPA range of 260 miles and a price of about 80k and the biggest complaint is high purchase price.

The company that gets to the middle ground the fastest will own the EV market IMO. Comments?

I thought the biggest complaint about Leaf is battery degrading.

I don't think middle ground will have a good future. It will end up being expensive AND still not enough range.

You can see all EV today, except Tesla, have a range between 70 to 90. They have a specific target - as a commuter car in a two-car family. This range is enough to replace 40% of all cars.

So, I don't see the middle ground. I can see the range increases as the battery cost drops and kwh/kg increases, but I think the mainstream EV will stay under 25K after incentives.

 

[jlsoaz]

The Leaf has an EPA range of 75 miles and price of about 30k and the biggest complaint is lack of range.

The Tesla has an EPA range of 260 miles and a price of about 80k and the biggest complaint is high purchase price.

The company that gets to the middle ground the fastest will own the EV market IMO. Comments?

I think it's a way to frame things that nicely highlights the vacuum that we see on price (between about $35k and about $70k) and kWh (between about 24 kWh and 60 kWh).

Tesla representatives have indicated, and I think recently reiterated, that it is heading for a $30k vehicle. (I believe that is specifically the price guidance they have given). Here is some basic info for those that haven't seen this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_BlueStar
Tesla BlueStar

Even if Tesla runs into difficulty delivering on their price target I am not sure this is a race to the middle ground from a Tesla point of view. I think they're seeking to leap across the price divide and land roughly in Nissan's court. $30k seems a bit ambitious, even for Tesla, so perhaps they'll miss by a bit? On the kWh/range side of things, I am guessing the car will have significantly better range than a 2013 Leaf. The company's ability to deliver higher kWh than its competitors seems well-established. Can the company deliver higher BEV kWh and higher BEV mile range per dollar than its competitors? Possibly? I guess, if competition does develop somewhere in that middle ground, we'll get a better idea.

Two disclaimers:

- I do not hold any equities or funds of equities, but do have a less-direct-but-nonetheless-real interest in the outcome on the stock market of some of the organizations we sometimes discuss.
- In my day job I work with some of the organizations we discuss.

I do not intend to discuss things in greater detail than that and in my perception my reason for group participation is not complicated - I simply love discussion of EVs and the EV business and over the decades have found it vital to developing my thoughts. However, for those that find it important (not everyone does) to have some idea of possible bias, and on general grounds, I thought I should clarify.