tkdbrusco said:
What you all need to realize is that Tesla has been at least a year behind for every production model they have. Look at the Model S, a year late! Model X? Still not out! and the model 3 is being promised for 2018? more like 2019. And all of this while they still churn out Model S and X. So that price that "includes" the tax credit will be nearly irrelevant by the time it gets to market. By that point Tesla will be at or very near its 200,000 production and possibly into the 12 month roll off period. This is why I am putting a deposit on a Model 3 the second it is announced and then watching production like a hawk to make sure that I'll still have the credit when the car finally gets here. If I see that the credit may be gone by then, I'll be getting a refund and picking up a Bolt or a Leaf2.
No model 3 isn't being promised for 2018, it's being promised for 2017. I'm fine with you saying it will be a few months late and roll into the next year but I don't agree with randomly rolling it 2 years out just because you say so.
Next the 200,000 mark isn't when the tax credit disappears. It's a soft limit with a phase out period. And it's based on US sales not global production.
Tesla has less than 50,000 in US sales to date and they are selling at a rate of 21,000 a year US. Sure they'll make 60,000+ this year but a chunk of that is for Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia.
Assuming they sell 20,000 between now and end of year 2015 they'll end 2015 at about 70,000 sold in the US. If they sell 40,000 US in 2016 that will get them to 110,000 US by end of 2016. If they sell 60,000 US in 2017 that takes them to 170,000 US by end of 2017. I'm expecting 200,000 US in 2018.
The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters. For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q1 2018 Full amount
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 50% of full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 25% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 No credit
It doesn't just turn off immediately for car 200,001. And if Model 3 shows up late 2017/early 2018 as I expect, it will get full amount for a quarter or so and then drop to 50% for two quarters, then to 25% for two quarters.
I just don't see the OMG the credit will go away panic being justified anytime before Model 3 deliveries start. I fully expect a Model 3 to be the 200,000th EV Tesla sells in the US.