Almost 4,000 produced so far, according to Perry

[LEAFguy]

Mark Perry, in an interview with treehugger radio, said that Nissan has produced between 3,000 and 4,000 LEAFs to date. Here is an estimate of what the production may have been since start of production on October 22. It is in line with a Japanese spokesman's goal of achieving 10,000 produced by the end of March.

 

[linkim]

Nissan has produced between 3,000 and 4,000 LEAFs to date so where are all the vehicles? I assume they are mainly in Japan.

 

[LEAFguy]

Nissan has produced between 3,000 and 4,000 LEAFs to date so where are all the vehicles? I assume they are mainly in Japan.

They are delivering primarily in Japan currently, as there is a Japanese government tax incentive due to expire in March. We will see U.S. deliveries ramp up significantly after that.

 

[Jimmydreams]

CARWINGS is up to 86 cars showing for the worldwide rankings. And that's something you have to enroll in, something which I'll bet 50% of the people forget/don't do.

Also, check out the 'ECO TREE' graph for this month:

Notice the BIG rise in 'ECO TREES' coming from Japan. That really shows where the cars are going!!!

 

[linkim]

There is an advantage to selling the major fraction of LEAFs in Japan first, although those of us anxiously waiting may not agree. The Japanese car companies use the first cars sold in Japan as part of their test to modify and debug, without suffering the wrath of the US customer. The original Prius was sold first in Japan, and that experience was very helpful in developing the US version of the Prius. This may not be the case with the LEAF because Nissan has extensive experience with EVs (they actually built electric trucks in 1947) and LI-ion battery technology. I agree the Japanese government and its incentives play a large part in where the LEAFs are being sent. If production ramps up, maybe I won't be delayed beyond April 2011. Here's hoping.

 

[gascant]

Not to mention that the dollar fell 12% against the Yen last year, so all of us who got a fixed price are getting a real bargain by Japanese standards. If Nissan makes more money on the car when they sell it in Japan, and their fiscal year ends March 31, then can we blame them for selling into Japan right now?

 

[walterbays]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704546704576150811879571204.html

Deliveries of the Nissan Leaf electric car will continue to proceed slowly until at least April as Nissan Motor Co. ramps up production ... will deliver about 100 of the all-electric cars to customers in February, said Brian Carolin ... So far, it has delivered a total of about 100 vehicles.

I never expected they would immediately start production at the full capacity of the plant. I'm not surprised if they prefer to sell more cars in Japan at a higher price and before incentives there expire. But I still wish they would finally shift Leaf production into high gear.

 

[LakeLeaf]

Still find it strange that several articles have said there is a 40% conversion rate from reservations to orders. Nissan stopped reservations in the US at 20,000 - which converts to 8000 orders - which converts to ~four months of claimed current production and ~two months of claimed "soon to be" production. Given all that - all US reservations should be filled by May/June/July depending on when they increase to full production capacity.

So I still have to question if those reports and numbers are correct - why have new orders been shut down in the US until the end of the Summer? It takes at the very least a month to go from order to delivery - and realistically two or three months (if the car was produced instantaneously at time of order - it still takes a month to ship and weeks to deliver). You'd think they'd want to be taking more orders just about now to better project the pipeline a few months from now - especially for the battery production.

From my math - the reports just don't add up. I think I'm missing something.

 

[kmp647]

I think your observations are correct and new orders will open for some earlier than " late summer 2011"

 

[sjfotos]

Still find it strange that several articles have said there is a 40% conversion rate from reservations to orders. Nissan stopped reservations in the US at 20,000 - which converts to 8000 orders - which converts to ~four months of claimed current production and ~two months of claimed "soon to be" production. Given all that - all US reservations should be filled by May/June/July depending on when they increase to full production capacity.

So I still have to question if those reports and numbers are correct - why have new orders been shut down in the US until the end of the Summer? It takes at the very least a month to go from order to delivery - and realistically two or three months (if the car was produced instantaneously at time of order - it still takes a month to ship and weeks to deliver). You'd think they'd want to be taking more orders just about now to better project the pipeline a few months from now - especially for the battery production.

From my math - the reports just don't add up. I think I'm missing something.

I believe that the conversion rate is being calculated only for those regions where an order can be placed. All reservations outside of the current initial states where orders can be place are not being counted. Whether that conversion rate holds when the the next tier opens up, and subsequently the nationwide roll out, remains to be seen.

The 'reduced' conversion rate calculation means the total number of orders being fulfilled is substantially less than 20,000.

 

[linkim]

The link here mentions in a brief clip the slow rollout of the LEAF. Announcer stated 10000 LEAFs will be manufactured by the end of March 31.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20110218/VIDEO/302189989/1439

Any true believers?

 

[LakeLeaf]

I think your observations are correct and new orders will open for some earlier than " late summer 2011"

Thanks kmp. Glad to hear this doesn't make sense to someone else too.

 

[DaveEV]

Still find it strange that several articles have said there is a 40% conversion rate from reservations to orders. Nissan stopped reservations in the US at 20,000 - which converts to 8000 orders - which converts to ~four months of claimed current production and ~two months of claimed "soon to be" production. Given all that - all US reservations should be filled by May/June/July depending on when they increase to full production capacity.

I think you are missing one important point - of the ~4000 Nissan can produce a month - we don't know how many of those they will actually be sending to the US. One can imagine that many Europeans are anxiously waiting for their Leaf as well.

 

[LakeLeaf]

I think you are missing one important point - of the ~4000 Nissan can produce a month - we don't know how many of those they will actually be sending to the US. One can imagine that many Europeans are anxiously waiting for their Leaf as well.

No doubt. However - we haven't heard about a lot of European reservations as of yet. There may be a whole slew of them, but the few posts we've seen from Europe indicate that pricing and lack of incentives don't make the Leaf something that Europeans are rushing to buy.

But a good point - it would be great if we had information on the number of European orders (and the number of Japanese orders for that matter). [Is Japan actually going through the same order process, or are cars just shipping directly to dealers?]

 

[LEAFguy]

why have new orders been shut down in the US until the end of the Summer?

LakeLeaf, Nissan never said this. What Nissan has said is that current orders, and orders placed by current reservationists are expected to be filled by end of summer. They have not said when new reservations will start, other than sometime (I think first half of) this year. Nor have they said when orders will open for new reservations. They may, in fact, be the same time.

 

[Nubo]

I sympathize with all the people who've already waited a long time.

On the other hand, having a lot of folks eagerly awaiting their LEAFs isn't all bad. It shows a demand and enthusiasm for the car. Hopefully it means a US plant that much sooner, and true volume production of LEAF, and more EV models to come.

They are rolling off the line. Definitely not vaporware. Real EVs for real people to own. That's really something. Won't be long now. I kind of expect kids being born about now, will wrinkle up their noses at gasoline cars as teenagers. Sort of the way they do now at things like "land lines".

C'mon Pops, why you still driving that retro-petro garbage?

 

[LeafinThePark]

I sympathize with all the people who've already waited a long time.

On the other hand, having a lot of folks eagerly awaiting their LEAFs isn't all bad. It shows a demand and enthusiasm for the car. Hopefully it means a US plant that much sooner, and true volume production of LEAF, and more EV models to come.

They are rolling off the line. Definitely not vaporware. Real EVs for real people to own. That's really something. Won't be long now. I kind of expect kids being born about now, will wrinkle up their noses at gasoline cars as teenagers. Sort of the way they do now at things like "land lines".

C'mon Pops, why you still driving that retro-petro garbage?

The Tennessee plant is scheduled to begin producing Leafs late in 2012...with the capacity to produce 150k/year. Doubt that data could not be brought in.

I'm with you 100% on EV's coming. If we step back and look at the Big Picture, I see these small delays insignificant in the long run. Change is coming. Oil is pushing $100/barrel and revolution is threatening to disrupt the flow further. The demand is high now and will keep growing. Once people are seeing EV's on a daily basis and see that their friends/neighbors driving these without issues we will see demand grow even further. Personally I hope my now 6 year old never drives an ICE.

 

[Electric4Me]

Personally I hope my now 6 year old never drives an ICE.

My 10 year old is counting on the Leaf becoming hers in 10 years. That might work out just fine with me considering the new cars that will come out.