Herm
Well-known member
Surfingslovac I had to spoof my IP address so you could not track my down in Timbuktu, so disregard any odd results you may get..thanks for the link.
Herm said:Azdre, Hyundai offers a lifetime warranty on the battery in their hybrid.. perhaps Kia does the same?.
What is the latest word on the Volt warranty?.. does it cover capacity or not?.. I thought they were required to cover it due to Federal emissions laws.
Seriously. Or spend half a year on an owner forum debating the finer points of lithium-ion battery care.azdre said:I really hope to be able to go a few years without having to talk to lawyers about my car.
It's been 3 1/2 years for me, but that's a whole 'nother story.azdre said:I really hope to be able to go a few years without having to talk to lawyers about my car.
Thank you, Joe. First report from Florida, that's quite significant. Many thanks for your earlier comment as well. I'm sure that everyone involved or affected appreciates it, I know I did.Joeviocoe said:I added a Florida Leaf driver to the tracking wiki
Joeviocoe said:I added a Florida Leaf driver to the tracking wiki
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/wiki/index.php?title=Real_World_Battery_Capacity_Loss" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It was the first Florida Leaf driver to have lost a capacity bar, that I have been aware of so it was an easy choice to add to the wiki.
I have used the naming format of "PIA-xxx" with the 'x' as a placeholder for the survey vehicle ID.
Unfortunately, I agree. Hopefully Florida will not be quite as bad as the battery aging model predicts.Weatherman said:I believe this is the same person referenced on the PIA list:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=49&t=550&start=1370#p252949" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
pretty much right on schedule for the first battery capacity bar to fall on a South Florida LEAF. I'd expect to see a lot more reports from Florida over the next six months.
Weatherman said:Joeviocoe said:I added a Florida Leaf driver to the tracking wiki
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/wiki/index.php?title=Real_World_Battery_Capacity_Loss" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It was the first Florida Leaf driver to have lost a capacity bar, that I have been aware of so it was an easy choice to add to the wiki.
I have used the naming format of "PIA-xxx" with the 'x' as a placeholder for the survey vehicle ID.
I believe this is the same person referenced on the PIA list:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=49&t=550&start=1370#p252949" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
pretty much right on schedule for the first battery capacity bar to fall on a South Florida LEAF. I'd expect to see a lot more reports from Florida over the next six months.
Joeviocoe said:I truly hope that this one is a statistical outlier.
Yes, agreed. Hopefully the work done offline and online here on MNL gives some of the information presented here a little more credibility than you gave them initially. That said, I would urge you to have a look at Stoaty's battery aging model, if you haven't seen it already. Although nobody can claim that it's authoritative, it is well-researched.Joeviocoe said:I've lived in Florida for 10 years. It's HOT. But I am still thinking it won't be anything like Arizona.
Indeed. Regarding your recent comments on Green Autoblog: I disagree with the assessment that early range degradation affects only 1% of US LEAFs. We had that argument before. In spades.Joeviocoe said:The state will certainly lead the East coast with prematurely degraded packs, but I am thinking, it won't be AS BAD AS the desert Leaves. We're all watching closely.
surfingslovak said:Indeed. Regarding your recent comments on Green Autoblog: I disagree with the assessment that early range degradation affects only 1% of US LEAFs. We had that argument before. In spades.Joeviocoe said:The state will certainly lead the East coast with prematurely degraded packs, but I am thinking, it won't be AS BAD AS the desert Leaves. We're all watching closely.
Although a lot will depend on the current and future geographic vehicle distribution, the current data points to as many as 10% bar losers within the first two years of ownership. Whether that's an acceptable number or not is for everyone to decide for themselves. The PIA study also shows that about 20% of LEAF owners report noticeable loss of range, based on subjective observation. This number includes the bar loser group, obviously. While the vast majority of owners will likely do well, this data set also shows that loss of range might be a real problem, and not some statistical artifact.
"One of the first places it was posted was on an MNL thread discussing the battery capacity loss issue, so early data was
probably oversampling owners who have lost battery capacity at a higher rate than the average owner."
This survey's sample size of 240 vehicles is MUCH too low to start making predictions on the true number of affected Leafs vs. total Leaf population. And it wasn't intended to make that prediction at all.. It CAN and DOES work well to identify correlation with charging habits and ambient local temperature. Which is quite valuable.
Please see this video, where Andy alludes to the fact that Nissan has all the data required to drive an informed decision.Joeviocoe said:Nissan would have to extract data from ALL Leafs sold, to get a complete picture... good luck with that. :roll:
OrientExpress said:This survey's sample size of 240 vehicles is MUCH too low to start making predictions on the true number of affected Leafs vs. total Leaf population. And it wasn't intended to make that prediction at all.. It CAN and DOES work well to identify correlation with charging habits and ambient local temperature. Which is quite valuable.
The PIA survey is on its way to being a statistically valid survey for US LEAF owners and potentially LEAF owners globally. Today the US LEAF owner universe is close to 18K, and to get a sample result that has a 95% ±4 level of confidence, then the sample size needs to be about 580 responses. If the universe is expanded to all LEAFs sold world-wide (43K cars to date) then the sample size only needs to expand to about 600 responses.
The current PIA sample has a confidence level of 95% ±6.5, which is good enough to draw some broad conclusions, one of which being that the overwhelming majority of LEAF owners do not any have issues with their car's traction battery.
One variable that the survey really does not quantify in the survey is driving style which does vary widely, and is a major influencer in how a vehicle performs.
surfingslovak said:Joeviocoe said:Nissan would have to extract data from ALL Leafs sold, to get a complete picture... good luck with that. :roll:
I'm all for a level-headed approach to this issue, but trivializing it, as was attempted before, will not help solve it. Yes, working with incomplete and noisy data sets can be tedious and frustrating. Much like measuring usable battery capacity via "butt dynos", as you noted couple of months ago. If your aim is to expand the base of the PIA study, then I'm all for it.
Weatherman said:We already have a model, which provides a reasonable first guess as to what your capacity loss will be. Use it. It's easy. Just put in your location and the number of miles you expect to drive each year, and you'll get a good idea of how fast your LEAF battery will degrade.
The study confirms that the climate you live in is the main predictor of the rate of battery capacity loss. We already know that in Arizona the loss of at least one battery capacity bar in a fairly short period of time is above 12%. In the pacific northwest, the northeast and the northern parts of the mid-west, no need to worry about it at all. While the battery aging model may not give an exact accurate prediction of capacity loss, it is very useful for determining where you should worry, and where you don't need to be concerned.Weatherman said:I think we've reached a point where trying to draw conclusions based on national statistics is pointless. It's like a weather forecaster saying, "based on national statistics, the probability of the temperature getting above 80F this afternoon is less than 5%". That forecast is meaningless. If you are in Seattle, the probability is near zero. If you are in Miami, the probability is near 100%.
We already have a model, which provides a reasonable first guess as to what your capacity loss will be. Use it. It's easy. Just put in your location and the number of miles you expect to drive each year, and you'll get a good idea of how fast your LEAF battery will degrade.
I disagree. The confidence would be correct IF the sampling was truly random. But PIA's survey is volunteer based and advertised in places where Leaf owners with problems are a bit more likely to respond than owners with no problems. So I would not have such real confidence even at 600 responses.... not unless Leaf owners are chosen from random.
I also agree that the sampling for the PIA survey is not sufficiently random.OrientExpress said:That is true that the initial sample is somewhat biased given the recruitment methods used, but that bias will even out to be more representative of a universal sample that was chosen randomly when you reach an optimum sample size for a given universe. For the global universe of LEAFs in service, than minimum number is 600.Joeviocoe said:I disagree. The confidence would be correct IF the sampling was truly random. But PIA's survey is volunteer based and advertised in places where Leaf owners with problems are a bit more likely to respond than owners with no problems. So I would not have such real confidence even at 600 responses.... not unless Leaf owners are chosen from random.
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