hill said:
DANandNAN said:
You're assuming that they're profitable at $7. That they can live with an "investment" that will never pay for itself. One that won't still won't be used by most Leaf owners on a regular basis. And, will be used by even less if they raised their prices to make it profitable (paying for things like demand charges, station installation, station maintenance, insurance and so on).
Tony Williams' thread http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=8854" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is a great point of reference.
ztanos,
Testing and production vehicles are different, no?
Most QC stations in CA already eat the 'demand-fee' via all the other business that their facility does (elevators - lifts - compressors - air handlers etc) so from there on in - it's just the rate they pay per kWh. Even $10 / charge (presume from 10% SOC to 80% SOC) for maybe 15kWh's. That works out to 67 cents per kWh ... enough to get a lil' sump'n sump'n cash. At $15 / charge you'd get $1 per kWh. That's more 'per unit' profit than gas station owners get per gallon compared to 1 kWh - and a gallon goes a lot farther than 1 kWh. Plus, the electricity doesn't foul the gas stations property, requiring tanks to be dug up every so often for replacement / polluted land remediation.
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You know, before your reply Hill, I was planning to say something similar because though I like Dan and Not a Number he clearly is living up to his name because he hasn't shown us one number to back up his point but just wants to ping us emotionally with what he feels must be right. Truth be known, there is a sweet spot that would make CHAdeMO with an upgrade to SAE profitable. What that sweet spot is is hard to say, but it comes down to let's say $9,000 equipment, $4,000 electrical work and $1,000 to swap out one of the TEPCO plugs running CHAdeMO for the SAE J1772 L3 when demand indicates. Alas, there's no more EVSE credit and much as I'd love a new EVSE credit at the state/commonwealth/province level, it's gonna take time on my part to lobby the General Assemblies and Parliaments to see these laws enacted. So we'll take these costs as is.
I also suggest there's a maintenance cost for the station, but I'd guess that may be as little as $100 per year given warranties and other protections the station owner would have against failure. Consider it like an insurance deductible.
Again, starting from Hill's well-reasoned premise, let's assume 15 cents per kWh is the actual per kWh cost to the station owner. This isn't unreasonable as the national average is about 11 cents per kWh but we may be talking about 30-40 cents per kWh in places like Hawaii so adjust the math accordingly in those locations.
Ideally, these stations will be per kWh cost not per session but most are currently by session and I'd suggest that on average they're going from 20% to 80% (because no-one wants to get to turtle mode) which represents about 12 kWh assuming 100% represents about 20kWh as has been observed elsewhere. Thus we have about $1.80 in electricity cost for each session on average, meaning that everything above that is used to pay for the equipment. So at $7 you have $5.20 per session. But the nice thing is each of those visitors are potential customers so really you may expect as much as $5 more business by providing a location lucrative to a certain clientele that wouldn't normally visit.
As an aside I'd like to stop here and provide a very practical example: I love the
Hard Times Cafe. When the Hard Times Cafe in Herndon, VA closed I was devastated. The property lay fallow for more than 5 years because the landlord raised the rent, an example of poor business acumen considering no revenue from any tenant is better than reduced revenue from a tenant that's not making enough. But in any case I swore I would boycott any business that took the location of the old Hard Times Cafe as a boycott against the landlord in general. But then they put in a
MOM's Organic Market. MOM's is an EV friendly business that was kind enough to put 2 L2 Coulomb units in the unfortunate location of right in front of their store. This was a tremendous benefit to me when my power utility disconnected my EV service for a
month while I waited for a new, ToU meter (not a worthwhile investment, BTW). Now I shop at MOM's
all the time and can't speak more highly of them. I'm sure they've made well more than $5 net profit from all of my visits and use of their station.
So, given about $10 back from the original $7 per session station, with half from the session fee and half coming from increased business, it takes only 10 people
per year to recoup the cost of the expected annual maintenance. Beyond that, we're paying off the EVSEs. That said, if you can't expect more than 10 per year you probably shouldn't be building a station. We the potential customers can help you there because I for one will tell anyone interested in building a station if I don't think it's a prime or practical location given what I know from the combined experience of many an EV driver.
Clearly the payoff will require about 1,500 sessions to pay off the stations completely, but what needs to be remembered is those are one-time, fixed costs. Once paid off, it takes just 10 sessions per year to maintain. If 510 people visit per year, about 42 a month or 1 and a third per day, the payoff is 3 years. If it's more like 310 per year, 25 a month or less than 1 a day, it's 5 years. If it's an abysmal 120 per year, about 10 per month or one every 3 days, it'll take just under 14 years to pay off. OTOH, with a credit that 120 per year use case could become as little as 7-10 years and that's I think the ROI sweet spot and after that point it's nothing but profit after the first 10. Want to get there quicker, the station owner could charge $10 per session. That means it's more like 1,200 sessions to pay off. $15 puts you at a mere 833.
There are many ways a business can make this work. I think $7 is the sweet spot with a tax credit to reduce the upfront cost. The station owner still should pay, they need to have a stake to prevent spurious stations from being built in the middle of nowhere. But it can be done even without the credit. It just makes thinks easier because a 7 year ROI is sweet!