Chevrolet Bolt & Bolt EUV

[GetOffYourGas]

Looks like Bolt will be at least as available as Leaf is now - 30k per year.

Not sure what the demand will be.

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf. Especially now that more and more people are exposed to EVs and it's no longer something "scary and new".

 

[DanCar]

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf. Especially now that more and more people are exposed to EVs and it's no longer something "scary and new".

What do you think of the $7,500 price difference?

 

[RegGuheert]

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf.

It will also be competing with a 107-mile LEAF. In a year or so, it will be competing with a larger-but-yet-to-be-determined-mile LEAF.

Personally, I think it will take more than miles of autonomy to determine the market leader. LEAF has had its issues, but it also has proven to be a comfortable, safe and reliable platform. GM's track record with the Volt platform has been quite good. The question is whether they can build upon that with the new Bolt.

My expectation is that the Chevy Bolt will come out of the gate slowly with perhaps a surge at the beginning for those who are really desperate for affordable EV range. Only after more than a few months (years?) of proving itself as a car which people actually want to drive will it enjoy stable sales volumes of 30k/year or more.

 

[Firetruck41]

Looks like Bolt will be at least as available as Leaf is now - 30k per year.

Not sure what the demand will be.

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf. Especially now that more and more people are exposed to EVs and it's no longer something "scary and new".

By the time the Bolt is available, the Gen 2 Leaf will be the likely competitor. It will probably have a competitive spec sheet.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf. Especially now that more and more people are exposed to EVs and it's no longer something "scary and new".

What do you think of the $7,500 price difference?

I think it will preserve a market for both low-cost short-range BEVs (like a 2016 Leaf S - 84 miles for ~22k after federal tax credit) and longer-range but still affordable BEVs (like a 2017/2018 Bolt - 200 miles for ~$30k after federal tax credits, as well as competing models from Nissan and Tesla). I still fully expect the latter category to have more demand than the former.

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf.

It will also be competing with a 107-mile LEAF. In a year or so, it will be competing with a larger-but-yet-to-be-determined-mile LEAF.

Personally, I think it will take more than miles of autonomy to determine the market leader. LEAF has had its issues, but it also has proven to be a comfortable, safe and reliable platform. GM's track record with the Volt platform has been quite good. The question is whether they can build upon that with the new Bolt.

My expectation is that the Chevy Bolt will come out of the gate slowly with perhaps a surge at the beginning for those who are really desperate for affordable EV range. Only after more than a few months (years?) of proving itself as a car which people actually want to drive will it enjoy stable sales volumes of 30k/year or more.

I specifically was talking about the "80 mile BEV" crowd, and not the next-generation Leaf/Model III that the Bolt will be competing against. To clarify my statement, see above. I was referring more to the category than the actual car. If GM produces a fun car, it should compete well against the larger but slower Leaf. Take a look at the 400 ft-lb motor they use in the Spark EV for a hint of what I expect to see in the Bolt.

Looks like Bolt will be at least as available as Leaf is now - 30k per year.

Not sure what the demand will be.

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf. Especially now that more and more people are exposed to EVs and it's no longer something "scary and new".

<span>By the time <a href="http://www.mychevybolt.com" class="interlinkr">the Bolt <span class="tip">Visit the the Bolt Forum</span></a>is available, the Gen 2 Leaf will be the likely competitor. It will probably have a competitive spec sheet.</span>

Agreed completely. I think they will be direct competitors - much more so than the Gen I Leaf and Volt. But the prize (potential market size) is much bigger than that for an 80-mile BEV.

 

[LKK]

If you're a GM fan the Bolt is good news. If you're an EV fan the Bolt is even better news because it means the technology exists for other manufactures to offer BEVs with similar range at a price the average person can afford. As far as I know there's nothing in the Bolt that can't be offered by any other manufacture. That means soon there will be a slew of BEVs with ranges around 200 miles and price tags in the mid 30's.

 

[RegGuheert]

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf.

It will also be competing with a 107-mile LEAF. In a year or so, it will be competing with a larger-but-yet-to-be-determined-mile LEAF.

Personally, I think it will take more than miles of autonomy to determine the market leader. LEAF has had its issues, but it also has proven to be a comfortable, safe and reliable platform. GM's track record with the Volt platform has been quite good. The question is whether they can build upon that with the new Bolt.

My expectation is that the Chevy Bolt will come out of the gate slowly with perhaps a surge at the beginning for those who are really desperate for affordable EV range. Only after more than a few months (years?) of proving itself as a car which people actually want to drive will it enjoy stable sales volumes of 30k/year or more.

I specifically was talking about the "80 mile BEV" crowd, and not the next-generation Leaf/Model III that the Bolt will be competing against.

Fine, but the LEAF will soon be a "107-mile BEV."

To clarify my statement, see above. I was referring more to the category than the actual car. If GM produces a fun car, it should compete well against the larger but slower Leaf. Take a look at the 400 ft-lb motor they use in the Spark EV for a hint of what I expect to see in the Bolt.

As GRA has repeated pointed out many times, the current or near-future crop of BEVs will not likely appeal to very many people who only own a single car, which is the demographic of many who purchase small, sporty cars. Besides, I have already looked at the Spark EV and I determined that the LEAF had 30% MORE torque at the axle than the Spark EV at zero speed. It only crosses over the torque of the LEAF at higher speeds. Don't get me wrong: I like the design of that motor. It is a clever design. But it is only an incremental improvement.

 

[ttweed]

I have to believe that the demand for the 200-mile Bolt will be greater than demand for the 84-mile Leaf. Especially now that more and more people are exposed to EVs and it's no longer something "scary and new".

What do you think of the $7,500 price difference?

What do you expect the next-gen Leaf with comparable range to sell for? The 2016 Leaf SL with 105-mile range will probably be $34K. If the Bolt comes in at $38K with 200-mile range and comparable trim level, it'll be competitive. When the next-gen Leaf (2017?) with rumored 160-180 mile range comes out, I'd expect it will be in the same cost range as the Bolt, unless Nissan makes some radical breakthrough in battery tech before then, increasing power density and reducing cost. More miles of range = more $$$, there ain't no way around that... Nissan surveyed people about how much more they would pay for double the range and it was right around $5K, I think.

TT

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Fine, but the LEAF will soon be a "107-mile BEV."

Absolutely. But we are getting way off track. I was comparing the potential market against the sales numbers of the 2015 Leaf. We don't yet know what sales of the 2016 Leaf, a "107-mile BEV", will be.

Besides, I have already looked at the Spark EV and I determined that the LEAF had 30% MORE torque at the axle than the Spark EV at zero speed. It only crosses over the torque of the LEAF at higher speeds. Don't get me wrong: I like the design of that motor. It is a clever design. But it is only an incremental improvement.

Interesting, I did not know that. I have not yet had a chance to drive in the Spark EV, but I have heard that it is more fun than the Leaf. And fun-to-drive is a factor that often gets overlooked in the early adopter EV crowd. I assume that's because many people are here for environmental reasons. But once the word gets out about how fun EVs are (and how barbaric they make ICEVs feel), I expect the market to grow by a lot.

 

[RegGuheert]

Interesting, I did not know that. I have not yet had a chance to drive in the Spark EV, but I have heard that it is more fun than the Leaf.

It is quite a bit smaller than the LEAF.

 

[DanCar]

What do you expect the next-gen Leaf with comparable range to sell for?

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=20496&start=10#p435922 If we are to believe this rumor article then next years Leaf will have 150 mile range. I would expect it to sell for less than the Bolt to be competitive. The next gen Leaf due in 2017 will have 200 mile range and will probably be priced slightly lower than the Bolt.

The 2016 Leaf SL with 105-mile range will probably be $34K.

Given current heavy discounts I suspect it will be discounted a few months after release.

If the Bolt comes in at $38K with 200-mile range and comparable trim level, it'll be competitive. When the next-gen Leaf (2017?) with rumored 160-180 mile range comes out, I'd expect it will be in the same cost range as the Bolt, unless Nissan makes some radical breakthrough in battery tech before then, increasing power density and reducing cost. More miles of range = more $$$, there ain't no way around that...

Time will get around that, because of new technology. I created a chart to show this:
https://plus.google.com/u/0/+DanielCardenas/posts/H3uq2fSbWwA

 

[ttweed]

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=20496&start=10#p435922 If we are to believe this rumor article then next years Leaf will have 150 mile range. I would expect it to sell for less than the Bolt to be competitive. The next gen Leaf due in 2017 will have 200 mile range and will probably be priced slightly lower than the Bolt.

OK, I am a little confused by this. Maybe I haven't been keeping up with announcements or the confusion is due to MY designations vs. year of introduction, but Nissan already has the 2016 Leaf featured on it's website (with the 30 kWh pack rated at 107 miles/charge) as coming at the end of this year, for an unnamed price (expected to be similar to current MSRP). http://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/2016-leaf/

I am assuming that this car will be sold throughout 2016, so which year model are you saying will have 150-mile range? The 2017 model, to be possibly introduced at the end of 2016? Wouldn't that then make the next-gen, 200-mile range car a 2018 model, at best? Are you saying "due in 2017" because the 2018 model will begin sales at the end of 2017, possibly?

TT

 

[DanCar]

OK, I am a little confused by this. Maybe I haven't been keeping up with announcements or the confusion is due to MY designations vs. year of introduction, but Nissan already has the 2016 Leaf featured on it's website (with the 30 kWh pack rated at 107 miles/charge) as coming at the end of this year, for an unnamed price (expected to be similar to current MSRP). http://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/2016-leaf/

Inside EVs says it is coming in a couple of weeks to first dealers.

I am assuming that this car will be sold throughout 2016, so which year model are you saying will have 150-mile range? The 2017 model, to be possibly introduced at the end of 2016?

Yes the rumor article suggests that.

Wouldn't that then make the next-gen, 200-mile range car a 2018 model, at best?

Yes.

Are you saying "due in 2017" because the 2018 model will begin sales at the end of 2017, possibly?

Yes something like that. There have been reports that next gen Leaf will be released earlier in 2017. If true that suggests the 2017 Leaf would be released earlier in 2016. All this is based on a rumor article and not sure how reliable it is.

 

[evnow]

Yes something like that. There have been reports that next gen Leaf will be released earlier in 2017. If true that suggests the 2017 Leaf would be released earlier in 2016. All this is based on a rumor article and not sure how reliable it is.

I don't think there will be a '17 Leaf.

They will probably go directly to '18 Leaf - released early 2017 - which will be the next gen Leaf (150 to 200 miles).

 

[DanCar]

I don't think there will be a '17 Leaf. They will probably go directly to '18 Leaf - released early 2017 - which will be the next gen Leaf (150 to 200 miles).

Would be interesting to know your source for this belief. Are you discounting the rumor article? http://www.motoring.com.au/news/201...n/leaf/next-nissan-leaf-to-target-400km-53658

A revised version of the current, original LEAF hatch will progressively be rolled out globally from next year with a boosted driving range of 300km, which is a substantial improvement to the current model’s 170km.

 

[pkulak]

Nissan surveyed people about how much more they would pay for double the range and it was right around $5K, I think.

Only because $5,000 was the highest option you could pick!

 

[evnow]

Would be interesting to know your source for this belief. Are you discounting the rumor article? http://www.motoring.com.au/news/201...n/leaf/next-nissan-leaf-to-target-400km-53658

A revised version of the current, original LEAF hatch will progressively be rolled out globally from next year with a boosted driving range of 300km, which is a substantial improvement to the current model’s 170km.

There have been several statements in the past about how next gen Leaf will come out late 2016 or early 2017. I'd take that statement to mean they are using the optimistic timeline.

 

[DanCar]

Would be interesting to know your source for this belief. Are you discounting the rumor article? http://www.motoring.com.au/news/201...n/leaf/next-nissan-leaf-to-target-400km-53658

A revised version of the current, original LEAF hatch will progressively be rolled out globally from next year with a boosted driving range of 300km, which is a substantial improvement to the current model’s 170km.

There have been several statements in the past about how next gen Leaf will come out late 2016 or early 2017. I'd take that statement to mean they are using the optimistic timeline.

Article specifically states revision to current Leaf next year, and suggests gen 2 Leaf later. I'm not putting much belief either way.

 

[Firetruck41]

I don't think there will be a '17 Leaf. They will probably go directly to '18 Leaf - released early 2017 - which will be the next gen Leaf (150 to 200 miles).

Would be interesting to know your source for this belief. Are you discounting the rumor article? http://www.motoring.com.au/news/201...n/leaf/next-nissan-leaf-to-target-400km-53658

A revised version of the current, original LEAF hatch will progressively be rolled out globally from next year with a boosted driving range of 300km, which is a substantial improvement to the current model’s 170km.

I think the car they are talking about in that quote is the 2016 Leaf which was just revealed. Looking at the various rumors I have read (some of which are not based in reality) I would not expect any major changes for 2017, but the 2nd gen 2018 model may come out in mid to late 2017. If that is the case, I could see them not selling a "2017" model and just continuing to sell the 2016 until it sells out just before the 2018 comes on line.

 

[evnow]

There will be a lot of pressure on Nissan to come out with Leaf 2 in early '17 than late '17. They don't want to leave Bolt as the only long range inexpensive EV in the market for long.