Cost to Own an EV vs. Gasoline Vehicle

[SageBrush]

Don't forget it is not just fuel (which you can save more on if you are able to install solar btw) but oil changes, mufflers, belts and other maintenence you don't need. On replacing batteries that is a big hit down the road lots of discussion on what level of degredation do you pull the trigger, a plus batter going down to a 2011 LEAF battery? If you go that far I am confident you can get 15 years out of the battery easily. We'll see how long the batteries keep good range, I'm expecting more than 40kw left in 10 years but that is only a guess.

I bought my Tesla Model 3 as an all purpose car, which for us also means convenient drives of ~ 400 miles a day all year round. Some people put a lot higher demands on their vehicles. I figure that I can absorb ~ 10% of range loss and still use the car as fully intended. If the car battery degrades more than 10% it still has a lot of utility left in it, but it would force me to buy another car. Will the car have under 10% battery degradation in 15 years ? I think it is possible, but I sure would not gamble on it being so. And so far as the LEAF goes, I would happily gamble that battery degradation will far exceed 10% in 5 - 10 years.

And then there is another aspect of depreciation that has not been discussed in this thread -- the advance of technology.
In 5 years (let alone 10), will people who purchase a LEAF today be satisfied with the CHAdeMO network ? Will other people want to buy a CHAdeMO LEAF in the future when e.g. the best DC network is 150 - 200 kW CCS ? The shorts answer is -- of course not. A new LEAF *better* be darn cheap, because it is deprecated technology. I think it is a mistake to take the market price of deprecated tech as evidence of the coming of age of EVs as cheaper than ICE. To average Joe who does not understand or care that ICE has massive cost externalities, ICE is still "cheaper."

 

[WetEV]

And so far as the LEAF goes, I would happily gamble that battery degradation will far exceed 10% in 5 - 10 years.

On my 2014, you lost.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Ok, so its a cop shop comparison. The results are "expected"

https://electrek.co/2020/10/05/tesla-model-3-crushes-dodge-charger-cost-of-operation-police-car/?fbclid=IwAR1G3FD-cENgAt443kLpN4ydAn55ruF93x6RhTFvbQYUMQCM6Ul_11eXw8Y

 

[SageBrush]

Ok, so its a cop shop comparison.

https://electrek.co/2020/10/05/tesla-model-3-crushes-dodge-charger-cost-of-operation-police-car/?fbclid=IwAR1G3FD-cENgAt443kLpN4ydAn55ruF93x6RhTFvbQYUMQCM6Ul_11eXw8Y

Nice !

Next step is to put up PV to drop their fuel costs to peanuts. It will really be crazy when they reach year #6 and cannot see a reason to dump the EVs.

 

[Steelcity]

Ok, so its a cop shop comparison.

https://electrek.co/2020/10/05/tesla-model-3-crushes-dodge-charger-cost-of-operation-police-car/?fbclid=IwAR1G3FD-cENgAt443kLpN4ydAn55ruF93x6RhTFvbQYUMQCM6Ul_11eXw8Y

Nice !

Next step is to put up PV to drop their fuel costs to peanuts. It will really be crazy when they reach year #6 and cannot see a reason to dump the EVs.

exactly, the cheaper you can get electric for the quicker the payback. Now paying 3.9 cents per kwh I can get less than a penny a mile. Plus charge at work(when open), for free, charge at local Nissan dealer for free. These Leaf's are cheap to operate and maintain. I bought used which helps tremendously with the payback time.

 

[voltamps]

Ok, so its a cop shop comparison. https://electrek.co/2020/10/05/tesla-model-3-crushes-dodge-charger-cost-of-operation-police-car/?fbclid=IwAR1G3FD-cENgAt443kLpN4ydAn55ruF93x6RhTFvbQYUMQCM6Ul_11eXw8Y

Nice !Next step is to put up PV to drop their fuel costs to peanuts. It will really be crazy when they reach year #6 and cannot see a reason to dump the EVs.

Using EVs for cop cars, & government vehicles of all types is good for reducing costs, no doubt. Back in 2002, the Denver city/county fleet manager decided to have county officials run around in the new (at the time) & controversial (back then!!) Toyota Prius. It proved to be very reliable & of course fuel cost was much lower, suited for routine trips around town perfectly. I haven't spoken to the fleet manager guy in years, but I'd like to check on what they are thinking these days regarding buying EVs.

Only caveat for EV police cars is how rugged they are. You need a little reinforcing of the suspension mounts. Or, it may work for Ford to use Mustang Mach-E systems in the existing Ford Explorer popular police SUV.

The local City Bus fleet has been slowly electrifying for years, as another example of a way to save $$ & get cleaner air in the city.
https://www.rtd-denver.com/projects/battery-electric-bus-fleet

I toured the Proterra engineering facilities and test drove their prototype City Bus back in 2006, and now they offer those, and have put their systems on the old standard School Bus chassis too. School buses can charge for about 4 hours in the daytime, & all night. This stuff is making its way around to everything.
https://www.proterra.com/vehicles/

 

[voltamps]

"EV’s Total Cost of Ownership must be within 10 percent of the gasoline/diesel vehicle" ---> Denver's condition for buying an EV car, truck, or van for their city-county fleet.

I don't know if they factor in predicted resale or trade-in price, or how on earth they could ever predict that. I think they generally keep their vehicles about 7 years. New Leaf sales have been running about half normal previous year's levels in 2020, so you'd think they could cut some good deals with Nissan or GM (Bolt) in a bulk buy. In fact, several municipalities are trying to get in on big group buys to get even better prices.

You'd think the rental car business could be getting EVs too soon.

 

[SageBrush]

"EV’s Total Cost of Ownership must be within 10 percent of the gasoline/diesel vehicle" ---> Denver's condition for buying an EV car, truck, or van for their city-county fleet.

Gov agencies are obviously not eligible for tax subsidy so their cost decisions differ from private citizens. If only ICE vehicles paid their fair share of cost externalities the Denver decision tree would make fine sense.

As you say though, the devil is in the details. What fuel cost do they use ? What depreciation schedule ?

 

[voltamps]

In the middle of the U.S., like Denver, a lot of coal is burned (45% of electricity), & 30% methane, meaning the carbon footprint of an EV is about the same as a good Hybrid car. (I once calculated how well my old Ford C-Max 44 MPG hybrid did compared to a Ford EV, & I remember it was about the same.) Competing on cost alone, you can't beat a pure EV. Politicians want to shift that money to other things.

Denver has been buying gov fleet hybrids quite a bit lately so buying EVs doesn't really have the same carbon impact as switching to EVs on the east & west coasts. Hybrids do pollute in the city though, there is that. Most of the city pollution is from big old diesel trucks and some old cars in bad shape.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

In the middle of the U.S., like Denver, a lot of coal is burned (45% of electricity), & 30% methane, meaning the carbon footprint of an EV is about the same as a good Hybrid car. (I once calculated how well my old Ford C-Max 44 MPG hybrid did compared to a Ford EV, & I remember it was about the same.) Competing on cost alone, you can't beat a pure EV. Politicians want to shift that money to other things.

Denver has been buying gov fleet hybrids quite a bit lately so buying EVs doesn't really have the same carbon impact as switching to EVs on the east & west coasts. Hybrids do pollute in the city though, there is that. Most of the city pollution is from big old diesel trucks and some old cars in bad shape.

Interested in seeing those calculations. Personally; even if you are right today, you will be very wrong way before those cars die or move on to used car land.

 

[GerryAZ]

I am also interested in those calculations. I did some "back of the envelope" rough calculations shortly after ordering the 2011 because others were giving me a bad time about pollution from coal-fired power plants. I believe you will find that an EV is cleaner if you consider all of the pollution associated with drilling for oil, transporting crude, refining, transporting gasoline or diesel, and burning the gasoline or diesel in a car of similar size to the LEAF even by using coal-fired generation only. If you just look at tailpipe emissions for the ICE car vs. electricity generation, you can probably show that a hybrid ICE car is about as clean as an EV (assuming coal-fired generation).

 

[SageBrush]

In the middle of the U.S., like Denver, a lot of coal is burned (45% of electricity), & 30% methane, meaning the carbon footprint of an EV is about the same as a good Hybrid car. (I once calculated how well my old Ford C-Max 44 MPG hybrid did compared to a Ford EV, & I remember it was about the same.) Competing on cost alone, you can't beat a pure EV. Politicians want to shift that money to other things.

Denver has been buying gov fleet hybrids quite a bit lately so buying EVs doesn't really have the same carbon impact as switching to EVs on the east & west coasts. Hybrids do pollute in the city though, there is that. Most of the city pollution is from big old diesel trucks and some old cars in bad shape.

Back in 2017 I lived in Coal country, Colorado and my similar conclusions lead to a purchase of a PHEV. I supplied the electricity part of my driving with my home PV array and the fossil part was ~ 60 MPG. Even though my long commute did not match my PHEV very well I still ended up at 100 MPG, which is about as good as EVs in states with above average but not top 10 clean grids.

Colorado is tricky. Depending where in the state and when charging occurs the grid can run the gamut from 100% clean to filthy. And now that both Colorado and NM have (relatively) aggressive clean energy roadmaps they are making yearly strides in cleaning up the grid. Which is to say that the carbon intensity from fueling an EV off the grid is improving by the year if not by the month.

 

[voltamps]

I am also interested in those calculations. I did some "back of the envelope" rough calculations shortly after ordering the 2011 because others were giving me a bad time about pollution from coal-fired power plants. I believe you will find that an EV is cleaner if you consider all of the pollution associated with drilling for oil, transporting crude, refining, transporting gasoline or diesel, and burning the gasoline or diesel in a car of similar size to the LEAF even by using coal-fired generation only. If you just look at tailpipe emissions for the ICE car vs. electricity generation, you can probably show that a hybrid ICE car is about as clean as an EV (assuming coal-fired generation).

True, a lot of folks might not know about how much coal is really behind electricty usage. Some think all electricity generation is "dirty" and EVs are a scam! Actually, I don't like it when EVs are advertised or say "ZEV" on them. Of course it does clean up local city air, so ZEV we'll call it.

Natural gas is taking over a lot of coal-fired electricity. Methane has a lot more hydrogen than coal & is cleaner burning with less CO2 greenhouse gas created. Getting methane out of the ground does result in some direct loss to the atmosphere, unfortunately. Hopefully it's not a huge problem since it's use is on the rise big-time.

About the distribution energy loss of gasoline GerryAZ mentioned above, that would amount to a lot since you have to constantly ship to gasoline stations. I think it is worse than the one-time environmental hit mining lithium creates when producing batteries with a 10 to 20 year lifespan. The down side of electricity is the about 6% line losses & distribution wire heating, still small enough.

Bottom line, electricity beats IC engines.

The next step appears to be small modular nuclear reactors scattered around the country, clean & safe like what Oklo, USNC, and NuScale are doing.

 

[SageBrush]

Getting methane out of the ground does result in some direct loss to the atmosphere, unfortunately. Hopefully it's not a huge problem since it's use is on the rise big-time.

It's a huge problem, and it makes NG from fracking about as bad as coal in GHG(p)

 

[91040]

Not just at the wellhead. Look up the SC Gas Company’s Aliso Canyon gas leak in Porter Ranch, CA. 5 gigatons released, if I remember.

Also, this past month we learned of a leak at a LADWP power plant in Sun Valley, CA that has been ongoing for 3 years.

Getting methane out of the ground does result in some direct loss to the atmosphere, unfortunately. Hopefully it's not a huge problem since it's use is on the rise big-time.

It's a huge problem, and it makes NG from fracking about as bad as coal in GHG(p)

 

[SageBrush]

Not just at the wellhead. Look up the SC Gas Company’s Aliso Canyon gas leak in Porter Ranch, CA. 5 gigatons released, if I remember.

Also, this past month we learned of a leak at a LADWP power plant in Sun Valley, CA that has been ongoing for 3 years.

Getting methane out of the ground does result in some direct loss to the atmosphere, unfortunately. Hopefully it's not a huge problem since it's use is on the rise big-time.

It's a huge problem, and it makes NG from fracking about as bad as coal in GHG(p)

Very good point

 

[voltamps]

Wow, I'm not liking CH4 much now! Plenty of electrons being AC'ed out of power plants, pushed by burning CH4.

Back more directly on topic, Ford is very optimistic about saving big $$ with their now-emerging Mustang Mach E. They say $12k over 5 years, meaning it's true you could buy a "real" Mustang for about the same dollars, to compare: .... (reference https://www.ford.com/suvs/mach-e/ and scroll way, way down to "Calculate Your Savings" & hit the button in there called "Customize Your Savings" to adjust a few parameters)

 

[SBCLeaf]

.3kWH/mile x 15000miles x .13 dollars/kWH = $585 for electricity to go 15k miles, round to $600

Is that a real-world efficiency number? I've been driving electric since 2012 and my average is around 4.4 - 4.5 miles/kWh. I don't use the heater much, so that may explain the difference.

 

[Steelcity]

.3kWH/mile x 15000miles x .13 dollars/kWH = $585 for electricity to go 15k miles, round to $600

Is that a real-world efficiency number? I've been driving electric since 2012 and my average is around 4.4 - 4.5 miles/kWh. I don't use the heater much, so that may explain the difference.

15,000 miles costs me ~$150
Worse case 4 miles/kwh and a cost of .04 per kwh

 

[SBCLeaf]

15,000 miles costs me ~$150
Worse case 4 miles/kwh and a cost of .04 per kwh

$0.04/kWh! Wat?