forummm
Well-known member
What do you think the 2015 Leaf S w/charge package (MSRP ~$32k) will be worth 5 years from today (2019)?
Factors possibly raising value:
+Federal tax credit probably goes away for Nissan (and Tesla, GM, Toyota, Ford)
+Many state tax credits probably go away (GA's probably next year)
+Gas probably gets a little more expensive
+Charging infrastructure expands
+Likely availability of range extending options for longer trips (like renting a little trailer full of batteries)
+Replacement batteries are probably much cheaper and/or higher capacity
+People get used to the idea that electric cars are "normal" and a reasonable transportation solution
Factors possibly decreasing value
+Some other manufacturers might still have the federal tax credit available
+Availability of ~$35k 200mi Tesla, enhanced range Leaf (~$32k 150mi?)
+Maybe there are maintenance/repair expenses we're not aware of that increase cost of ownership
+Unforeseen technological advances that make the Leaf much less attractive to the new cars
+Unforeseen standards development (such as the charging infrastructure being installed is not compatible with the 2015 Leaf)
Uncertain factors
+If 2017 Leafs with enhanced ranges are leased in huge numbers, they could hit the used market in large numbers in 2019. Or people could love them and keep them. Or purchases could be more popular than leases for the larger range vehicles.
The more I think about it, the more I think a 2015 Leaf is going to depreciate about as much as an average new car-- ~63% after 5 years (Source: Edmunds). The early Leafs are depreciating about that much (a little faster) but the expiring tax credits should boost those prices. I don't see the cost of a new 24kwh Leaf dropping more than $5k in 5 years from the effective price today ($32k-$3.5k incentives). Even Tesla doesn't expect the batteries to get more than ~$100/kwh cheaper in the short term than they are now with their new factory. The newer cars will have a longer range, but they will also be significantly more expensive than a used one. A lot of people will like the idea of a reasonably priced used car that is far cheaper to operate than an ICE.
Factors possibly raising value:
+Federal tax credit probably goes away for Nissan (and Tesla, GM, Toyota, Ford)
+Many state tax credits probably go away (GA's probably next year)
+Gas probably gets a little more expensive
+Charging infrastructure expands
+Likely availability of range extending options for longer trips (like renting a little trailer full of batteries)
+Replacement batteries are probably much cheaper and/or higher capacity
+People get used to the idea that electric cars are "normal" and a reasonable transportation solution
Factors possibly decreasing value
+Some other manufacturers might still have the federal tax credit available
+Availability of ~$35k 200mi Tesla, enhanced range Leaf (~$32k 150mi?)
+Maybe there are maintenance/repair expenses we're not aware of that increase cost of ownership
+Unforeseen technological advances that make the Leaf much less attractive to the new cars
+Unforeseen standards development (such as the charging infrastructure being installed is not compatible with the 2015 Leaf)
Uncertain factors
+If 2017 Leafs with enhanced ranges are leased in huge numbers, they could hit the used market in large numbers in 2019. Or people could love them and keep them. Or purchases could be more popular than leases for the larger range vehicles.
The more I think about it, the more I think a 2015 Leaf is going to depreciate about as much as an average new car-- ~63% after 5 years (Source: Edmunds). The early Leafs are depreciating about that much (a little faster) but the expiring tax credits should boost those prices. I don't see the cost of a new 24kwh Leaf dropping more than $5k in 5 years from the effective price today ($32k-$3.5k incentives). Even Tesla doesn't expect the batteries to get more than ~$100/kwh cheaper in the short term than they are now with their new factory. The newer cars will have a longer range, but they will also be significantly more expensive than a used one. A lot of people will like the idea of a reasonably priced used car that is far cheaper to operate than an ICE.