Joe6pack said:
Lol. Completely unqualified statement.
You Tesla fanbois are losing it if you are now trying to make the argument that a LEAF costs more than a Tesla.
I'm not a Tesla Fan Boy nor am I promoting neither Tesla nor Nissan. For what it's worth I really like the Leaf. The only reason I'm even considering selling it is that I now have to drive 140 miles minimum per day. And I've actually been doing that in my 24kWh 11 bar Leaf! And no, I won't be replacing it with a Tesla unless the stars align and that Tesla that's on the moon somehow is beamed down to my back yard with title and all. (Beam me down the Tesla Scotty!)
But regardless of your and my particular likes, dislikes and circumstances, forecasts are forecasts. Of course they don't apply to every case, nor are they immune to changes as reality unfolds, but they are what they are. And they are a good standard to go by if you want to guess at what you'd be spending on your next vehicle. You have to include everything into the equation. Sure, you can pick up an old car out of a field for $50. But if it costs you $50,000 to restore it you're not saving money are you.
Here's what the current projected figures are with both a base Leaf and a base Model 3:
_______________________________________
5 Year total cost to own for 5 year ownership:
2018 Tesla M3 /
2018 Nissan Leaf S
Initial cost:
$35,000 /
$29,990
Electricity:
$3,767 /
$4,238
Maintenance:
$4,525 /
$3,244
Sum paid in 5 years:
$42,292 /
$37,472
Resale value: 43%
$15,048 / 30%
$8,997
Total cost: $28,244 / $28,475
Including federal tax credit of $7,500:
Total cost: $20,744 / $20,975_______
Ok. So I didn't include everything like insurance or financing or compare anything other than the base models. And the electric rates are for those in California, so for others that aspect of it would be much cheaper. But the fact that the base model Leaf and M3 are very close for 5 year ownership surprised even me! If you are going to buy a base model and trade it in every 5 years, which is common, you are going to be spending around the same on either a base Tesla or a base Leaf. There's really no way around it. Sure, if you get free electricity the Leaf becomes $300 cheaper than the Tesla. So does that make the Leaf an affordable car? Well obviously if a base Leaf total costs after 5 years are within $500 of that of a base Tesla then it can't be that "affordable".
But here's the dilema. If you trade in a Leaf every 5 years or less it is not going to be very economical because of the terrible resell value. If you keep it for many more years you end up with either a degraded battery out of warranty or you'll end up having to pay for a battery that now costs more than what your vehicle is worth. Now that may work for some people. But if your battery is practically needing a replacement right as your warranty expires at 100,000 miles after driving 15,000 miles per year for 6.5 years then you're kind of up a creek without a paddle. Really it wouldn't be all that bad if you could purchase another $6,000 battery and use it for the next 100,000 miles. That may be the case for some. But what if your battery is failing as bad as some of the 30kWh owners are experiencing? Well then at that point you're going to have to chuck the car for free and start from scratch or pay a premium price on new batteries every so often.
Now I certainly hope the 30kWh battery degradation problems are only a fluke and that Nissan has gotten their act together with the 40kWh battery. Like I say, there are three areas that can make the Leaf more affordable, and one of them is improving the longevity of the battery. The longer the battery lasts the better the resell value and the better the longevity of the car. The better the resell value, or the longer you own it, the less it costs to own and operate the vehicle over time. To me I think with the proper TMS Nissan could nail this and make a car with a battery that lasts even in hot climates. But maybe Nissan doesn't want to do that. But it seems like Tesla has gotten this down, which is going to give their cars better longevity and a better resell value.
The same would be true if battery replacements were much cheaper in spite of batteries that don't last very well. At the end of 8 years or 100,000 miles, if the price to replace the battery is more than the car's value, it's not going to happen. Which in turn makes the car worth even less. Hey! If it cost the same to change a traction battery as to change the oil on an ICEV then there'd be no problem in changing the battery every 3 months if you had to. (Again this is just hypothetical and hyperbolical, not me saying this will or should happen.)
The third thing that Nissan could do is lower the initial costs substantially. (Again, I'm not saying this will happen.)
Any one of those three would make the Leaf affordable. Just costing a bit less up front and being a bit cheaper to maintain doesn't make it affordable. You have to add that resell value into the equation. And if you don't plan to ever sell it, the cost to keep it running is just as important to figure out. If you don't have an educated guess of what those figures would be then you are a blind buyer.