General EV sales topic

[SageBrush]

I learned how to work around my PHEV's (a Toyota Prius Prime) winter limitations but it took thought and some inconvenience, so it is a non-starter for Merkins.

A Merkin in a PHEV in cold winter means high criteria pollutants, low EV range, and poor hybrid efficiency.

 

[LeftieBiker]

And that's another warning. The next unprovoked insult gets you a vacation.

 

[SageBrush]

And that's another warning. The next unprovoked insult gets you a vacation.

LOL !!

 

[GRA]

^^^Yup, thanks to large state subsidies for both car buyers as well as charging installations, plus a large, well-heeled techie customer base able to afford expensive cars. Even so, peaks and valleys. Only 287 million (as of 2021) to go to replace the whole U.S. fleet if no further ICE sales were permitted from now on, assuming every PEV sold to date is still on the road (not a chance). https://www.zippia.com/advice/how-m...re 289.5 million cars,the U.S. rose by 0.91%.

That's a pile.

While California has large state subsidies, Washington State does not. A whole lot of EVs in Washington State, EV market share was 4.26%.

EVgo, a private company, expects their charging network to go cash positive this year, and the company to go GAAP profitable in 2024.

The "large, well-heeled techie customer base able to afford expensive cars" was buying expensive ICEs before EVs. Now largely buying EVs. That's a good change.

It will take thirty plus years for most of the ICEs to be replaced. A car is a durable asset.

Absolutely, but until the price and affordability of PEVs get down to the point where most people can afford them, mass sales aren't going to happen. California is aiming for 50% of sales to be PEVs by 2030; WE might just make it because of the above, because we are experiencing the effects of AGCC and have areas of bad air pollution, and because there's a greater % of the population ideologicially motivated to do so than is the case in say Mississippi or Wyoming.

Somewhat peripherally on-topic, via GCC:

GlobalData: Maruti Suzuki expects lower EV penetration in India by 2030 compared to government’s target

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/04/20220430-msi.html

Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) has announced that its electric vehicle (EV) will be available in India for sale by 2025. It also iterated that the government’s target of 30% EV sales by 2030 may be difficult to achieve as the company expects EV penetration level between 8-10% by 2030 that looks realistically more possible, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Undoubtedly, the expected 8-10% penetration looks more realistic given the market challenges that include a hampered macroeconomic environment in India, an increase in the cost of production, global semiconductors and lithium shortage, and inadequate charging infrastructure that hinders consumer confidence in EVs with larger battery packs.

Since announcing the revised target of 30% back in 2018, India has renewed efforts to boost the whole EV ecosystem, but the EV demand and supply remained limited given the strong market for affordable ICE vehicles. Four years already down and just a handful of BEV models are available on the market for private users.

Maruti Suzuki is patently adopting the ‘wait and see’ approach—it is assessing the market response to EV products from peers rather than making heavy upfront investments in products. This could be compared with its compact-SUV strategy where it launched its Vitara Brezza after similar products from Ford, Jeep and Hyundai proved successful in the Indian market.

For now, it makes absolute strategic sense for Maruti to reinforce its position in its core area and mindfully launch EV products—BEVs or Hybrids later. No doubt, Tata will have a first-mover advantage in the segment but the dynamic EV market does not stand still and many more disruptions can be expected over the next decade.

—Bakar Sadik Agwan

In addition to issues mentioned above, a majority of India's electricity (74% in 2018) is generated by coal, and they have a grid that is still often unable to even keep the lights on, never mind charge cars.

 

[WetEV]

The "large, well-heeled techie customer base able to afford expensive cars" was buying expensive ICEs before EVs. Now largely buying EVs. That's a good change.

It will take thirty plus years for most of the ICEs to be replaced. A car is a durable asset.

Absolutely, but until the price and affordability of PEVs get down to the point where most people can afford them, mass sales aren't going to happen.

Mass adoption can't happen right now in any case. There just are not enough batteries.

P.S. Isn't bolding text annoying?

P.P.S. At minimum, please don't bold my text when quoting it. I didn't bold it for my own reasons. Isn't it rude to modify someone's quote?

 

[LeftieBiker]

Isn't it rude to modify someone's quote?

It's generally considered acceptable to add emphasis to a quote, as long as you don't change it. You do, however, have to note that the emphasis was added by you.

 

[OakLeaf]

We kind of looked into both Hyundai and Kia PHEVs but what really turned me away was the fact that they didn't have any source of heat on battery, turn on the heater and ICE fires off. True they are supposed to have an efficient heater that uses hot exhaust gas to help heat something up but I really wanted to be able to not only heat on EV but also preheat while in the garage, something not possible with the current PHEV Korean offerings.

It's certainly not optimal for running on all EV-mode to have the ICE kick in when you need heat, but here in PA the past few winters it basically means that mostly in January, February you wind up running it a little, not really a big deal as the engine only turns on intermittently as needed.

Running the engine for heat regenerates back into the battery too.

Our Niro has EV heated seats and steering wheel, so that's usually enough to make it through the other cold days of the year quite comfortably.

The funny part was that prior to getting the Niro, I had been seriously considering putting a fuel heater in the LEAF for heat since the battery had degraded so much that I no longer had enough range left to run the EV heater and make it back home again.

The AC is EV powered, so climate control in the summer is all-electric, so that's not been a problem.

What's also nice is being able to select what mode you want to drive in - either all EV, Automatic Hybrid (maintain battery charge state) or "Sport Mode" where you can call for both the EV and ICE engine to power the drive train simultaneously. To get an "optimal" solution of heat early in my winter morning commute, I put it in Sport mode while accelerating onto a freeway (uphill) as it is safer to have maximum power at that point, generates plenty of heat and saves the battery for better use while winding through the 15MPH developments and side streets later in the journey.

Agreed that it is a bit of a pain not to have it warm up in the garage, but I'm not a fan of charging inside anyway as our garage is attached to the house.

The Rav4 Prime looks great! A fellow I work with (who previously had been anti-EV) has one on order too.

I think PHEV may be the "gateway car" to get folks into EVs.

 

[OakLeaf]

I realize everyone has different circumstances, needs and desires, but as far as I'm concerned (at least at this point in time), a PHEV design represents the best of all worlds and is the most pragmatic, ideal solution.

PHEVs are the best option for some, not everyone.

If you drive long trips, mostly, then the EV range doesn't cover much of you driving, and you would likely be better off with an ICE that would be both cheaper and better fuel economy than the PHEV.

PHEVs are "Goldilocks cars". Just enough local driving to use the AER, just enough distance driving. Just right.

BEVs are just nicer, and if a BEV works for you, then that would be the best option for you.

This isn't static, BEVs will get cheaper and longer range, eventually displacing both PHEVs and ICEs.

Certainly not disagreeing with you, I am a big fan of EVs and still have and drive the LEAF almost daily since 2012 (at least in warm weather anymore).

My thinking is that if the objective is to move the fleet to more EVs than ICE, and given that most people currently drive ICE, then perhaps a good way to do this is to encourage the use of a vehicle that has both elements in it.

We know that "range anxiety" is a huge factor in why folks don't want to drive an EV, so by having the familiar ICE on board this eliminates that fear at the same time as exposing them to the benefits of EVs.

There are also other reasons, but I'm sure you understand my point and why I say the PHEV is "the best of all worlds".

 

[SageBrush]

you wind up running it a little, not really a big deal as the engine only turns on intermittently as needed.

That is actually the PHEV scenario that leads to lousy efficiency and high criteria pollutants because each episode is with a cold ICE.

 

[OakLeaf]

you wind up running it a little, not really a big deal as the engine only turns on intermittently as needed.

That is actually the PHEV scenario that leads to lousy efficiency and high criteria pollutants because each episode is with a cold ICE.

Thanks for pointing that out, although I'm fairly sure it's not usually operating under the cold engine scenario when heating.

In my experience at least, what happens is that on the first call for heat, the engine runs continuously until the engine comes up to temperature and roughly comes on afterwards for several minutes every once in a while (say, something like 3 out of every 10) so looking at the temperature gauge, the engine typically never falls cold again after the first startup.

The car gets an emissions inspection every year so I'm sure it meets the regulatory requirements.

In my experience, it doesn't use much fuel - this past winter it used about a tank (~11 gallons) for around 90 hours of winter commuting (driving temperature typically set at 72F, preheat for 10 minutes on ICE to 85F in the morning).

 

[SageBrush]

The car gets an emissions inspection every year so I'm sure it meets the regulatory requirements..

No doubt. So does diesel

 

[OakLeaf]

The car gets an emissions inspection every year so I'm sure it meets the regulatory requirements..

No doubt. So does diesel

Yes, indeed, it would be cool to see a diesel powered version of a PHEV.

But, lots of folks are used to gas powered, so as a bridge to full EVs, it's probably a better choice.

 

[SageBrush]

Thanks for pointing that out, although I'm fairly sure it's not usually operating under the cold engine scenario when heating.

I owned a Prius Prime for two winters in SW Colorado and followed ICE temperature using an OBD2 dongle and app. The data was very, very obvious: the ICE cools down fast when not in use. Not to where a regular temp gauge would register "cold," but easily into the range where efficiency suffers and criteria pollutants jump. I don't have data to share with you, but the topic has been examined and discussed in depth in the internet. Toyota made quite the effort to mitigate these issues by mostly keeping ICE rpm below ~ 1650 during warm-up events by also using battery power. That worked a lot better than the competing PHEV's of the time, but there is only so much engineering can do when faced with bad physics.

It is the achilles heel of PHEV, for people who care about these things.

 

[GRA]

Isn't it rude to modify someone's quote?

It's generally considered acceptable to add emphasis to a quote, as long as you don't change it. You do, however, have to note that the emphasis was added by you.

To be clear, when I bold another poster's text I do so to show what part of a longer quote I'm specifically replying to. See the immediately following post for an example. Normally I also put a word or two at the start of my reply to that point in bold as well, to make the linkage clear. OTOH, when I bold some part of a linked article I'm normally doing so to emphasize that section, as much for my own benefit if I'm subsequently looking for that info as to clal the attention of others to what I consider the more important parts of the quote. My apologies for any confusion caused.

 

[GRA]

The "large, well-heeled techie customer base able to afford expensive cars" was buying expensive ICEs before EVs. Now largely buying EVs. That's a good change.

It will take thirty plus years for most of the ICEs to be replaced. A car is a durable asset.

Absolutely, but until the price and affordability of PEVs get down to the point where most people can afford them, mass sales aren't going to happen.

Mass adoption can't happen right now in any case. There just are not enough batteries.

P.S. Isn't bolding text annoying?

P.P.S. At minimum, please don't bold my text when quoting it. I didn't bold it for my own reasons. Isn't it rude to modify someone's quote?

See PHEVs,, which allow four or more times as many PHEVs to be produced now, and are far more affordably priced so many more people, including those who tend to live in areas where local air pollution is the worst and who also tend to have longer commutes and more limited charging options, can benefit from them.

 

[GRA]

Thanks for pointing that out, although I'm fairly sure it's not usually operating under the cold engine scenario when heating.

I owned a Prius Prime for two winters in SW Colorado and followed ICE temperature using an OBD2 dongle and app. The data was very, very obvious: the ICE cools down fast when not in use. Not to where a regular temp gauge would register "cold," but easily into the range where efficiency suffers and criteria pollutants jump. I don't have data to share with you, but the topic has been examined and discussed in depth in the internet. Toyota made quite the effort to mitigate these issues by mostly keeping ICE rpm below ~ 1650 during warm-up events by also using battery power. That worked a lot better than the competing PHEV's of the time, but there is only so much engineering can do when faced with bad physics.

It is the achilles heel of PHEV, for people who care about these things.

The solution for those who care is to buy a PHEV that has electric heating, preferably a heat pump. The PHEV models that do now are limited; off hand, I know the RAV4 Prime has a heat pump, but don't remember which if any others do.

 

[GRA]

Some more info re the chart that WetEV posted for CA/U.S. sales, via GCR:

US plug-in vehicle sales hit a record high in Q1, led by Tesla and California

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...sales-hit-record-high-q1-tesla-and-california

Electric vehicle sales were at a record level both in California and nationally, according to numbers released by the California Energy Commission and interpreted by the electric vehicle advocacy organization Veloz this past week.

And once again, they were led by Tesla—by an astounding lead, despite a series of price hikes. Californians bought more than one-sixth of Teslas sold globally (an even bigger piece than last quarter), and Tesla took a noteworthy 10.6% of the California light-vehicle market. Or to put it another way, Tesla sold 78% of the 67,118 battery electric vehicles bought in California in Q1.

Nationally, Americans bought about 208,000 electric vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) in the first quarter of the year. California comprised 81,292 of those, or about 40% of U.S. plug-in sales.

For California that’s up 37% (and about 15,000 vehicles higher) versus last year at this time. Veloz notes how in the Golden State that now adds up to more than a 16% market share for EVs, again including PHEVs. That’s essentially a doubling of the market share for plug-ins there since the same quarter of 2020.

According to Veloz, which has been keeping a tally of EV sales going back to late 2010 and the arrival of the Nissan Leaf, that now adds up to a cumulative 2.64 million national sales and nearly 1.14 million cumulative California sales.

In California, the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y topped the sales charts, at 24,375 and 23,117 respectively.

The Model S was third, at 3,557, while the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Ford Mustang Mach-E were fourth and fifth, at 1,959 and 1,664 for the quarter in the state. The Toyota Prius Prime, Tesla Model X, Jeep Wrangler 4xe, Nissan Leaf, and Volvo XC90 Recharge rounded out the top ten plug-in sales in California.

Yessir, nothing like sky high gas prices to incentivize more people to switch to plug-ins. Of course, it's only the well-off who can afford to switch - with the exception of the Prius Prime and the LEAF, all of the PEVs in the top ten are priced well north of $40k.

 

[WetEV]

Mass adoption can't happen right now in any case. There just are not enough batteries.

P.S. Isn't bolding text annoying?

P.P.S. At minimum, please don't bold my text when quoting it. I didn't bold it for my own reasons. Isn't it rude to modify someone's quote?

See PHEVs, which allow four or more times as many PHEVs to be produced now, and are far more affordably priced so many more people, including those who tend to live in areas where local air pollution is the worst and who also tend to have longer commutes and more limited charging options, can benefit from them.

PHEVs are a good answer for some, but are more of a bother to drive as you need to keep track of two powertrains, more expensive to maintain than a BEV due to the ICE, more complex than both a BEV and an ICE, and only give good results if you have the correct mix of driving.

If you want to mandate PHEVs, maybe someone will make you Putin for the day, Otherwise people will just muddle along with their decisions, not your ideology.

 

[WetEV]

Of course, it's only the well-off who can afford to switch - with the exception of the Prius Prime and the LEAF, all of the PEVs in the top ten are priced well north of $40k.

Exactly what to expect if decisions are driven by people and not by ideology.

 

[GRA]

Mass adoption can't happen right now in any case. There just are not enough batteries.

P.S. Isn't bolding text annoying?

P.P.S. At minimum, please don't bold my text when quoting it. I didn't bold it for my own reasons. Isn't it rude to modify someone's quote?

See PHEVs, which allow four or more times as many PHEVs to be produced now, and are far more affordably priced so many more people, including those who tend to live in areas where local air pollution is the worst and who also tend to have longer commutes and more limited charging options, can benefit from them.

PHEVs are a good answer for some, but are more of a bother to drive as you need to keep track of two powertrains, more expensive to maintain than a BEV due to the ICE, more complex than both a BEV and an ICE, and only give good results if you have the correct mix of driving.

If you want to mandate PHEVs, maybe someone will make you Putin for the day, Otherwise people will just muddle along with their decisions, not your ideology.

Please point out where I've ever suggested mandating PHEVs? I've suggested that if you're going to give consumers subsidies, they should subsidize those people who most need them (i.e. income and price caps) , and specifically for PHEVs subsidies that encourage people to drive as large a % of miles on the battery as possible. Absent subsidies, provide perks. Or else (as now), high gas prices, which are the most generally effective motivator to drive electrically as much as possible there is. California's state legislature apparently missed the deadline to pause the next hike in our state gas tax, so it's due to go up another $0.03 to $0.54/gal on July 1st. They're still trying to agree on some kind of rebate, and who should get it. In the meantime state gas prices have gone up about $0.05/gal. over the past week, after declining for several weeks. Currently per AAA $5.741/gal. average statewide, but $5.913 in S.F. and $5.782 across the bay in Alameda County, where I live. Small, rural Alpine county south of Tahoe is the worst, $6.799.

There will always be a divide between those who can afford whatever they want and those who have to make more practical decisions. I've been doing occasional 1/2 hour Friday evening commute surveys of PEVs at least since 2015 (I think since 2013, but I wasn't noting the year at the time), and what's consistent for all that time is that when I total up the # of BEVs/PHEVs that evening the BEVs come out well ahead, but when I then total only those cars that I consider 'semi-affordable' (which I define as <= $40k base MSRP + dest.; 'affordable' is <= $30k ditto) the ratio inverts, i.e. PHEVs rule that segment. PHEVs are clearly the only mass-priced PEVs at this time that can be all-around cars for most people, so that's where the bulk of government money should go, if government money there will be. As that also stretches the limited battery supply and results in the greatest reduction of emissions for that supply, it's a no-brainer.


More of a bother to drive? How do you figure - most people are worried by range anxiety, not by the fact that an ICE like the one they've been using all their lives to transport them may turn on at some point. IEVS:

Driving as efficiently as possible is arguably more important for EV drivers because they cannot take advantage of the vast fuel filling station network spread across the globe. When your EV is needs a top-up, you may have to wait for hours as it charges, or if you don’t pay close attention to your range, you will be stranded and it could be more difficult to power an EV back up again than it would for an ICE vehicle.

That’s why the techniques we used to know under the umbrella of hypermiling, once the reserve of efficiency fanatics (most of which used to drive hybrids in North America and diesels in Europe), are now more of a requirement for EV drivers than the were for ICE vehicles. And while we would all like there to be no learning curve and no need to adapt when switching from ICE to EV, the plain truth is some changes are needed - some return to ICE after owning an EV...

https://insideevs.com/features/583264/fifth-gear-ev-range-increase-tips/

Only give good results if you have the correct mix of driving? Depends on someone's definition of good, doesn't it? Or are you suggesting that the same doesn't apply to BEVs? Most people will settle for good the majority of the time and adequate the rest, which is why most people buy cars that can hold 5 or more people and can take them wherever they may need to go, rather than more specialized (and maybe more efficient) cars, even when they have enough cars in the family to be able to specialize.