Here comes the EV revolution / effect on Oil prices

[gbarry42]

Something occurred to me, and I've been telling this story for a short while. When we get EV's in large enough numbers, the demand for gasoline will decrease, and then the prices will drop. And then, of course, "they" will say, "Oh, there's no gas crisis..."

Consider this spurious correlation:
(1) Encinitas has probably the highest concentration of early adopters and EV's in the area.
(2) I just saw the price of gas drop by ten cents.

See, we're doing it already! :lol:

 

[lambert]

Hmm. If we really do have a higher concentration of Leafs/EVs in Encinitas, a more real concern is going to be what happens to the power grid when we all turn on our EVSE chargers at midnight. The utilities' studies for the current grid being able to support the increased demands of residential charging infrastructure may not take into account that some neighborhoods are more likely to be early adopters of EVs than others.

 

[davewill]

Hmm. If we really do have a higher concentration of Leafs/EVs in Encinitas, a more real concern is going to be what happens to the power grid when we all turn on our EVSE chargers at midnight.

You're kidding, right? I'm sure the summer A/C peak load is about a thousand times worse than anything that LEAFs are going to cause at night.

 

[derkraut]

Hmm. If we really do have a higher concentration of Leafs/EVs in Encinitas, a more real concern is going to be what happens to the power grid when we all turn on our EVSE chargers at midnight.

You're kidding, right? I'm sure the summer A/C peak load is about a thousand times worse than anything that LEAFs are going to cause at night.

+1

 

[daniel]

Something occurred to me, and I've been telling this story for a short while. When we get EV's in large enough numbers, the demand for gasoline will decrease, and then the prices will drop. And then, of course, "they" will say, "Oh, there's no gas crisis..."

Consider this spurious correlation:
(1) Encinitas has probably the highest concentration of early adopters and EV's in the area.
(2) I just saw the price of gas drop by ten cents.

See, we're doing it already! :lol:

By the time there are enough EVs in the U.S. to affect demand for gasoline, the pace of industrialization in China and India will have quadrupled world demand for petroleum.

 

[lambert]

You're kidding, right?

For midnight charging, yes, I'm exaggerating. For after-work charging, maybe not: http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds...boom_could_deliver_a_surge_in_grid_power.html

If Encinitas is indeed a "hot spot" for EV adoption, we might see some issues in our neighborhood sooner than others. This is why it's in SDG&E's best interest to give us really attractive TOU rates for super-off peak.

 

[Stoaty]

By the time there are enough EVs in the U.S. to affect demand for gasoline, the pace of industrialization in China and India will have quadrupled world demand for petroleum.

Yup. We will be glad our need for gasoline is a lot less due to driving the Leaf. I don't see the price taking a real dive again unless oil prices cause another global recession.

 

[Herm]

Perhaps the day will come that a 1L engine car will be offered for sale in the US again. Maybe the Fiesta with Ford's new 1L 3 cyl ecoboost engine.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

some estimates put the initial demand for EVs at around 5-7 million. that is more than a decades worth of production. we need to lower that time frame to 5 years.

that said, i can assure you, the gas price will not change one iota due to that loss of demand. its simply insignificant. the impact that the Prius has had should be significant. at least it seems like it would be. hundreds of millions of gas saved since the Prius was introduced, but that only made more gas available for the SUVs. it did not lower demand, it helped to keep prices artificially low.

we need to tax gas to a minimum $5 a gallon and keep it that way

 

[smkettner]

we need to tax gas to a minimum $5 a gallon and keep it that way

I agree. 25 cents more each year for the next 20 years.