Keep 2011 vs. buy 2015?

[Valdemar]

Despite my original intention to push my 2011 as far as possible current incentives make me scratch my head if I should just get a 2015 instead. Unless I can't get a better deal directly I have access to VPP pricing, and given $10k in Nissan rebates I can find myself in a 2015 SV for about $15,000 sales tax including. Considering I can sell my 2011 privately for $6k (wishful thinking, I know) my out of pocket expense will be $9k, so given a 3 year horizon when the next gen EVs are available my cost of ownership will be about the same for the crippled 2011 or a 2015 should I decide to sell either at that time, but I will enjoy extra 30 miles of range, factory warranty, and hopefully a more robust battery. Am I missing anything? Basically looking for a reason to convince myself I should keep the 2011 for 3 more years.

 

[downeykp]

$3000 a year to be able to drive a car that would make your commute easier seems like a no brainer. The new warranty doesn't really matter imo, I've never had a warranty repair.
Will the dealer give you a decent trade in?
Go for it.

 

[mtndrew1]

For an out of pocket expense of $5,500 couldn't you get the bulk of the benefit with a replacement lizard battery and keep $3,500 in your pocket for the down payment on a next-gen EV?

 

[downeykp]

For an out of pocket expense of $5,500 couldn't you get the bulk of the benefit with a replacement lizard battery and keep $3,500 in your pocket for the down payment on a next-gen EV?

Great point.

 

[Valdemar]

For an out of pocket expense of $5,500 couldn't you get the bulk of the benefit with a replacement lizard battery and keep $3,500 in your pocket for the down payment on a next-gen EV?

I don't need a new battery at the moment, I estimate I can limp for 3 more years without replacement with mild inconveniences, but I will likely be looking to sell the Leaf then, figuring I'll be able to get $2,000 at most for it at that time. This is likely about the same amount I will end up with if I get a 2015 for $9k out of pocket now and also sell it in 3 years. 2015 has useful improvements such as B mode, a 6.6kW L2 charger, and a more efficient heater, plus a peace of mind for any unexpected breakdowns.

 

[Valdemar]

Will the dealer give you a decent trade in?

I doubt it, a private sale is likely the way to go.

 

[Stanton]

Another vote for keep and replace the battery pack (if/when needed).

 

[Valdemar]

Another vote for keep and replace the battery pack (if/when needed).

Please elaborate why you think it is better. Given I can actually get the price I have in mind I see not much of a compelling reason to keep the 2011 if I'm getting a next gen EV in 3 years even if the bottom line is the only consideration.

 

[Stanton]

Another vote for keep and replace the battery pack (if/when needed).

Please elaborate why you think it is better. Given I can actually get the price I have in mind I see not much of a compelling reason to keep the 2011 if I'm getting a next gen EV in 3 years even if the bottom line is the only consideration.

$6k (replacement pack) vs $9k (your number--even though you won't get $6k for the car). All you're giving up is faster charging (6.6 kW) and maybe some cold weather/heater range (you didn't say this was an issue). Save for the battery pack (a big issue that can be dealt with under warranty for many), these 2011/2012 Leafs seem to be bullet-proof.

 

[Valdemar]

1. Keep the 2011 for 3 more years and then sell
Expenses, considering nothing breaks:
$300 - Maintenance (brake fluid flush, reduction gear oil replacement, 2 paid battery checks)
$1,000 - public charging fees to cope with the reduced range
Sell for $1,000 to $2,000 with 140,000 miles on the odometer, walk away with -$300 to $700 cash.

2. Buy a 2015 cost $15k, sell the 2011 for $5k, netting $10k out of pocket expense to start with, sell the 2015 in 3 years for $7k with 60,000 miles, walk away with -$3,000 cash.

So the cost difference will be about $3,000, or less if 2015s hold their value better (unlikely). A major failure like a fried OBC or a brake module malfunction on the 2011 will easily make a 2015 purchase a better choice. Yes, 2011s were super reliable up until now, but we don't know how wide the bathtub curve is.

 

[Valdemar]

Well, the resolution to this dilemma may be simple. I called around and not exactly getting $10k off VPP price , or even $10k off MSRP for that matter.