I think the resale in 2 years time will definitely depend on the replacement battery cost and capacity. If the Gen2 comes out at $35K or less and has 150+ miles in range, it will make a major dent in used leaf prices. Nissan would have to do one of 2 things to counter this. (1) Dramatically decrease the price on the replacement batter for the Gen1, even at 85 miles of range, if a replacement back was less than $3K, then a used Gen1 would be a good option. (2) Create a replacement pack at roughly the same price $5.5K that had at least 120 miles of range.
If they maintain the status quo with the old leaf, then the price would have to drop in order for people to consider buying used. And considering that there are quite a few gen1 leafs on the road, and will be even more before the gen2 comes out, Nissan is going to be inundated with lease returns and the used market will be crowded with them as well.
From an environmental standpoint, it also seems very irresponsible to not create an alternative for this market, otherwise you have 100,000 EVs on the market that are unsellable after 60-70K miles?!! I thought these cars were supposed to help the environment, but I'm pretty sure driving a car for this short of a period of time and then scrapping it, it way worse than driving an ICE car to 200K before it is junked.
One of the reasons I went with the Leaf over another compliance car was that I assumed that as the range of new models increased, Nissan would have to address their existing leaf owners with replacement battery options that are reasonable. Its a lot more difficult to ignore 100,000 owners than it is 5,000 with a compliance car. It is much more likely that Fiat or Ford or BMW just says, "tough luck" to their gen1 owners.
If they maintain the status quo with the old leaf, then the price would have to drop in order for people to consider buying used. And considering that there are quite a few gen1 leafs on the road, and will be even more before the gen2 comes out, Nissan is going to be inundated with lease returns and the used market will be crowded with them as well.
From an environmental standpoint, it also seems very irresponsible to not create an alternative for this market, otherwise you have 100,000 EVs on the market that are unsellable after 60-70K miles?!! I thought these cars were supposed to help the environment, but I'm pretty sure driving a car for this short of a period of time and then scrapping it, it way worse than driving an ICE car to 200K before it is junked.
One of the reasons I went with the Leaf over another compliance car was that I assumed that as the range of new models increased, Nissan would have to address their existing leaf owners with replacement battery options that are reasonable. Its a lot more difficult to ignore 100,000 owners than it is 5,000 with a compliance car. It is much more likely that Fiat or Ford or BMW just says, "tough luck" to their gen1 owners.