Leaf Sales Demand

[tps]

What's more practical, taking five minutes to full up a tank and having another 400 miles, or trying to find a plug somewhere to charge and take hours?

When the "plug" is in my garage and I'll be sleeping during those hours, I'd be happier with the EV. This will be my situation almost all of the time. However, as the EV movement picks up steam, one can expect finding a charging spot as easy as finding a parking spot. That's the EV paradigm: most cars spend most of their time parked; if they're charging whenever parked, they'll almost always have plenty of charge to make it to the next destination. For the occasional time where this is not true, you take a 20 minute break while picking up a Quick Charge. The EV infrastructure is still in its infancy, while the gasoline infrastructure is mature, a similar situation to 100 years ago when gasoline was scarce but horse stables were everywhere. The good thing about the EV situation is that electricity is already everywhere (in the developed world), giving us a headstart. Installing the infrastructure means:

1. The "last mile", or in this case the last feet. Install EVSEs connected to existing electric lines.
2. As demand scales up, upgrade electric generation and distribution to handle the increased load. This could become part of the addition of distributed, "green" generation that's already occuring.

(Just think about cellular phones... 30 years ago they were big: bag phones or bricks. There were few cellular towers so coverage was not so good. Air time was expensive. What, you have to charge your cellular phone? I don't need to do that with my landline; it always works. Everyone was saying the same types of things then about cellular phones as they're saying now about EVs. And so it was with CD's: What, I need a $1000 player and there's only a few titles available? And so it was with DVD's: What, I can't record?)

I am part of a larger group of people who could get by just fine most of the time with home charging, for now. For me, the public charging infrastructure, when it comes, will be the icing on the cake.

All I need at this point is a LEAF. When the ordering window opens, if Nissan is to meet their stated goal of "before the end of the year" for tier 4, has narrowed to just a few weeks... Meanwhile, as I wait, I think about the inconvenience of my ICE everytime I go to the gas station to fill up, but also remind myself that in six months I probably will have kicked that habit for good!

While I'm not the world's biggest environmentalist, I do believe global warming, caused upsetting the delicate balance of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere by releasing carbon, which was sequstered in underground oil deposits for millions of years, is a problem we need to address. My joke is that those who don't believe this need a short vacation on Venus. EVs, while not a total solution, are a step in the right direction.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

it is interesting how these threads start off in one direction and get completely off track.

for the record; i do not dispute Train's comments in anyway whatsoever. the Leaf has to rely on an infrastructure to flourish. that infrastructure is not here, will cost a fortune (estimated to be about a single year's foreign oil bill...) and there is no money to pay for it (spent it on oil!!)

my only contention is that the demand for EVs will far outstrip the supply for years to come. now maybe those $60,000 Teslas might pile up a bit. but a Leaf will not.

in fact, neither will an iMEV and it is a bare bones eco box that many will not consider buying even if they were $15,000 but enough people will do it.

as far as the limitations of EVs, i deal with that thought every day and have been for years. i used to drive an EV that got 20 miles on a charge and only did 35 mph with the wind. so i dont need anyone to tell me it does not work for them and neither does anyone else here.

but EVs are here and they will be adopted. so it now becomes a personal choice to find a way to make it work or let someone else do it for you.

 

[Jay]

I thought this deserved a thread of its own, even though I know it has been discussed to various degrees in other threads. I know some people in the media are beginning to use Leaf (and Volt) sales as proof there is no demand for EVs. And I generally shrugged that off being that production was the limiting factor. However, now people are pointing out that there is at least one Leaf available for sale at most dealers now. That might suggest we might have come to a plateau or even a decline in Leaf sales. However, I'm more optimistic than that. I'd like to throw out some things to consider:

• Leaf is still not available in all Markets. So current sales are still only a portion of worldwide demand.
• The Leaf has sold over 8,000 units in the USA this year, despite the restricted supply chain, and the year isn't over yet. By comparison, the Toyota Prius only sold 5,600 units in the USA the first year it went on sale, and only 15,600 the next year.
• Just one vehicle sitting on a lot is not an indication of poor sales. How many Toyota Camry's are sitting on your local Toyota dealer's lot?
• The general public is still mostly unaware that such a vehicle exists.
• Many buyers are hesitant to buy a first-year model, much less a first-of-its-kind. The Prius is a good example. Once it became well known and trusted and the myths of the batteries finally were busted, people began to buy the car like crazy.
• The economy is slow for all car sales right now.
• Sales of the Leaf will be affected by gasoline prices. Right now gasoline isn't at $4.00 anymore, but it will eventually return.
• I've heard that while some dealers may have a Leaf on the lot, they are jacking up the sticker price, meaning people would have to choose to pay the extra money, or wait several months to get one. Again, making the Leaf less attractive.
• Nissan is still building the new production plant in the USA with plans to build 150,000 Leafs per year. Surely they wouldn't have these plans if they didn't believe that the demand would be there for it.
• Charging infrastructure is still in its infancy. Most mainstream buyers will hold off until more public charging stations are available.

So these are the reasons I have to be optimistic. Obviously nobody has a crystal ball and so it is impossible to say what may happen a year or two down the road. Any of these things could further hinder sales of EVs:

• Gasoline prices could drop to $2 per gallon or less.
• Somehow somebody might prove (or at least convince people) that Global Warming isn't true.
• The world economy could continue to collapse further, making purchases of vehicles in the Leaf's price range very limited.

Anyway, there you have it.. Discuss.

Sure.

Current unassigned 2012 MY LEAFs in saleable inventory nationwide in the United States is currently at: 75

 

[SanDust]

How is giving my opinion "putting down the Leaf?"

Obviously it's not, and in truth 99% of those at car companies who run the numbers and predict demand would agree with you. On the other hand there is the 1%, and if you're a Carlos Ghosn and in that 1% that's all that counts.

But here is why I reject your $37,000 car argument. First there is the total cost of ownership. A Leaf doesn't cost more to own than a Versa once you start looking closely at it. If you live in a state with big state tax credits or rebates then it's probably cheaper. The running costs alone can recoup a big part of the costs. I was spending about $240/month for gas, which is a big part of my lease cost for the Leaf. In fact I've been mentioning to friends that have a business that they need to get an EV because the straight car allowance would give me a bigger tax break than what their present leasing deals do. I also can say that I categorically do NOT miss going to gas stations. Once you don't need to go you realize what a horrible shopping experience gas stations are.

The other part of the equation is that the Leaf is a good little car. It's quiet, probably more quiet than any other ICE car up to 30 or 40 MPH. It's very smooth. No rough transitions between gears. And while it turns into something of a weak sister at higher speeds as far as acceleration is concerned, it has no trouble keeping up in traffic at 70 MPH. It's fun in traffic on surface roads because it's quick with a great turning radius. You can stuff a lot into it if you fold the seats down. Speaking from my personal perspective, the Leaf isn't as nice as the $57,000 car it replaced, but that's mostly because of the interior and the seats and so forth. The ride and handling are not big steps down. That's great for a $37,000 car and absolutely amazing for a car that cost $22,000 after credits and rebates.

I agree that EVs will remain a niche for many years, but that doesn't mean they won't be very successful in some markets. Once the batteries get better and the range is actually 100 miles, which should happen in a few years, lots of people will find an EV a perfect compliment to their existing cars. And even more will find PHEV and EREVs a compelling buy. We're just at the beginning point for EV technology and EVs are already competitive. Give them a few generations and no doubt they will displace pure ICEs in very large numbers.

 

[tps]

Current unassigned 2012 MY LEAFs in saleable inventory nationwide in the United States is currently at: 75

Number of Nissan dealers in the US is ??? (probably far more than 75)

 

[SanDust]

Current unassigned 2012 MY LEAFs in saleable inventory nationwide in the United States is currently at: 75

And a third are at one dealership? From our experience with Nissan tracking and reporting we know that the systems aren't sufficiently granular to be reliable with respect to information as specific as this. I suspect Nissan only knows that a Leaf has become an orphan after a sale is reported along with the fact that the potential customer has backed out. Which doesn't mean Leafs are piling up on on dealer lots, just that this number doesn't prove it.

My guess is 4K-5K per month. I don't think Nissan can sell 150K that they plan to make in Smyrna, until the early adopters come onboard.

I think they'd be ecstatic with these numbers. It's going to take a while for them to figure out how to sell them and for them to get the dealers onboard. Right now I don't think the dealers have bought into the entire EV concept. Mossyleaf could probably tell us but probably can't. To some extent it doesn't matter because it will take Nissan a while to ramp up production at Smyrna.

Not sure if a hockey stick sales growth can happen. Unlike consumer electronics where you can sell an early adopter a new i-thinge every year, in the car biz you can only sell an upgrade every three or four years, which cuts the growth rate. Unless gas goes to $5/gallon or something, we'll probably see sales bumping along for a few years before they start taking off.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

so there is a question of which direction gas prices will go?? other than a bump here and there to compensate for a global financial crisis, i have to say the odds are probably not very even

 

[klapauzius]

so there is a question of which direction gas prices will go?? other than a bump here and there to compensate for a global financial crisis, i have to say the odds are probably not very even

Growing demand in emerging markets, shrinking size of newly explored oil fields, where can it go but up in the "long" run (5-10 years)?

 

[Jay]

Current unassigned 2012 MY LEAFs in saleable inventory nationwide in the United States is currently at: 75

And a third are at one dealership? From our experience with Nissan tracking and reporting we know that the systems aren't sufficiently granular to be reliable with respect to information as specific as this. I suspect Nissan only knows that a Leaf has become an orphan after a sale is reported along with the fact that the potential customer has backed out. Which doesn't mean Leafs are piling up on on dealer lots, just that this number doesn't prove it.

Please cite which dealer has 25 2012 MY LEAFS available for sale?

Just checking out the database on the larger California dealers by volume:

Mossy: 14 LEAFs/orphans, 1 is a MY2012
Boardwalk: 7 LEAFs/orphans, 0 MY2012
North Bay: 0 MY2012 LEAFs
Fontana: 3 MY2012 LEAFs (1 looks to be the demo)
Universal: 15 LEAFS/orphans, 0 MY 2012
Carson: 5 LEAFs/orphans, 0 MY 2012

Given there is 900-odd Nissan specific dealers in the USA, and of that, I'd say about half are certified/actually have pushed a LEAF out the door so far, I am pretty sure 75 non assigned cars is pretty accurate. (and by 'non-assigned' I mean non demo-for example all new NY dealers got a single demo car recently...i'm not counting those)