LEAF sales disappointing? Duh, what do you expect?

[DaveEV]

There seems to be sufficient supply at many dealers. The one a few miles from me has four sitting on the lot as of last week...

cars.com does indicate over 800 in dealer stock across the USA - that's at least a couple hundred higher than what I've seen in the past where I've typically seen 400-500 or so.

Still only 2 within 50 miles of me and 11 within 75 miles. Zero in San Diego County! Need more within 50 miles of "home" unless you want customers to suffer range anxiety on their first drive home!

So while inventory may be improving - still seems quite low to me.

In contrast, see about 4000 Volts in stock across the USA, 22 within 50 miles and 36 within 75 miles. Much better supply there!

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

There seems to be sufficient supply at many dealers. The one a few miles from me has four sitting on the lot as of last week...

cars.com does indicate over 800 in dealer stock across the USA - that's at least a couple hundred higher than what I've seen in the past where I've typically seen 400-500 or so.

Still only 2 within 50 miles of me and 11 within 75 miles. Zero in San Diego County! Need more within 50 miles of "home" unless you want customers to suffer range anxiety on their first drive home!

So while inventory may be improving - still seems quite low to me.

In contrast, see about 4000 Volts in stock across the USA, 22 within 50 miles and 36 within 75 miles. Much better supply there!

Interesting. Five times as many Volts in inventory as Leafs, and the sales rate last month was about 5X. Sounds like car selling 101. Not if you build it they will come, but rather if you put it on the lot it they will buy it.

 

[Smidge204]

Interesting. Five times as many Volts in inventory as Leafs, and the sales rate last month was about 5X. Sounds like car selling 101. Not if you build it they will come, but rather if you put it on the lot it they will buy it.

...but you can't put it on the lot until you build it...

=Smidge=

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i guess the general consensus here is to restrict worldwide sales of the Leaf and funnel current factory output to the US while the dollar is trading at 60% of its value against the Yen.

ya, very smart financial move.

or wait. i think we will see some incentives for the Leaf. zero % financing coming Jan the traditional slow car month when Symra starts cranking them out.

last i heard is still a Dec launch which is disappointing. i was hoping Nissan could bump that a few months due to demand but then again, its not like someone else is going to take their customers now is it?

 

[ksnogas2112]

Some of these ideas are great but remember not all of us live in EV advantaged locations. With $0 incentive beyond the Federal Tax Credit it's hard to get people to buy in to new technology although 7 cents/kWh doesn't hurt. Yes having cars in the lot would help. Having only 10 level 2 chargers in a 70 mile radius of Downtown KCMO doesn't help but it doesn't hurt either. I know I'll be using at least two of them and one of those quite regularly.

Here's my local plug for McCarthy Nissan in Olathe, KS. They are very friendly and willing to show off the demo Leaf they have and they would have sold 4 in March/April if they had them in the lot instead of needing to order them. (Still waiting on 'estimated' delivery date...update...June 2012).

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Some of these ideas are great but remember not all of us live in EV advantaged locations. With $0 incentive beyond the Federal Tax Credit it's hard to get people to buy in to new technology although 7 cents/kWh doesn't hurt. Yes having cars in the lot would help. Having only 10 level 2 chargers in a 70 mile radius of Downtown KCMO doesn't help but it doesn't hurt either. I know I'll be using at least two of them and one of those quite regularly.

Here's my local plug for McCarthy Nissan in Olathe, KS. They are very friendly and willing to show off the demo Leaf they have and they would have sold 4 in March/April if they had them in the lot instead of needing to order them. (Still waiting on 'estimated' delivery date).

its a tough choice. if looking at the long term. EVs will EASILY.

average price of a new car is $30,000 which is what the Leaf costs after the fed tax credit (funny how that works!!) so the day you drive it off the lot you are ahead.

or you can get a 30 MPG car. might save a few thousand. there are many well equipped at the 25,000 price point. bit smaller, less bells etc. but its all a compromise. EVERY Car is a compromise of one thing or another. but that 30 MPG car will cost you over 13 cents a mile or roughly $2000 in gas...but this has been talked about a ton so i will stop here.

it does not work for all and compromise is part of the equation.

 

[linkim]

HEV/PHEV/EV sales are creeping up to past 3% in the 1st quarter of 2012. Seems like Toyota (and the Prius C) is the big winner.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20120423/OEM06/304239948/1186" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[TomT]

It's all about price...

Seems like Toyota (and the Prius C) is the big winner.

 

[KJD]

Interesting. Five times as many Volts in inventory as Leafs, and the sales rate last month was about 5X. Sounds like car selling 101. Not if you build it they will come, but rather if you put it on the lot it they will buy it.

This sounds very logical to me. People need to see the cars to buy on impulse. The Nissan dealer closest to me has over 240 new cars on the lot and exactly one Leaf. One can hope that when TN production comes online the dealers will stock more cars, but I have my doubts.

Nissan corporate has spent a ton of money on developing the Leaf into a real car. The lack of support by local dealers is truly short sited.

 

[SanDust]

At the moment Cars.com shows 1000 Leafs in inventory. Hard to say what that means. It could just be the higher inventory are just cars in transit to dealers/customers and will show up as sales this month or next. There hasn't been much activity in the "Official Leaf Owner" thread this month.

I'm not sure I agree that you can compare inventory levels for the Leaf and the Volt in a linear way. Just looking at the websites the Volt has a lot of options, starting with exterior and interior colors but going on to cameras, premium sound, NAV, and so forth (even wheels). The Leaf just has exterior colors and the SL/SV trim levels. For demo purposes you don't necessarily need the car configured like the buyer wants, but when you want to sell it you probably do. In this regard the Leaf should be able to get by with far less inventory because the configurations are going to be fewer.

The other thing I noticed is that GM has a much better lease deal. Seems like you can get a fairly loaded Volt for the same price as a base Leaf. You get killed on the back end with the Volt lease but people who are leasing frequently aren't that concerned about the back end. They're all about the here and now. Nissan could try to structure the lease in the same way but without a thermal management system for the battery it may not want that many used Leafs on its hands at the higher residual price.

 

[adric22]

Nissan could try to structure the lease in the same way but without a thermal management system for the battery it may not want that many used Leafs on its hands at the higher residual price.

I don't get what you are saying. Being that nearly all of these cars' batteries will still be under warranty at the end of a lease, I don't see that it makes much difference to Nissan who the owner is.

 

[SanDust]

I don't get what you are saying. Being that nearly all of these cars' batteries will still be under warranty at the end of a lease, I don't see that it makes much difference to Nissan who the owner is.

It's not about the warranty it's about the end of life performance and consequent resale price. The DOE has modeled how the battery margin (excess capacity) affects life and costs. If you go the Leaf route and have no margin (the "just enough" design) the costs are lower upfront but the savings are lower over the life of the vehicle. If you go the Volt route and have a margin ("design for degradation") the upfront costs are higher but the savings from displaced gas usage are higher over the course of the vehicle life.

The conclusion was that lower upfront costs would lead to higher adoption rates and faster cost reductions due to volume production.

Seems like GM/Ally has figured out that they can get to the same or even lower upfront costs by capitalizing on the higher resale value of a battery with better performance over the life of the vehicle. Another way of putting it is that they're taking the risk that a three year old Volt that gets the same range as a new Volt will have a higher percentage residual than a three year old Leaf that has a lower range than a new Leaf.

The way this works in practice is that Nissan uses the tax credit as cap reduction and GM uses it as residual boosting. The monthly payments are the same but the residuals are quite a bit different -- the Volt's is much higher. This means GM/Ally will be getting more of them back and that they'll have to be selling them at a higher percentage of MSRP. There is some risk but it's very clever and they don't have to sell it at the residual, just $3000 or so less.

 

[UkrainianKozak]

After almost 4 months I have yet to see another LEAF in the wild.

Come to Seattle
I see multiple Leafs every day during commute... We don't even wave to each other anymore

And we started fighting for chargers at work, My building have 4 chargers, and we have 5 Leafs, One Volt and Last week the first plugin Prius clamed the right to charge... With one more car we will be running all 4 chargers in shifts with no room to spare...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

has Leaf Sales been disappointing to us or to Nissan? because its looking to me that we are the only ones disappointed and i think that if Volt sales were half of the Leaf's we would be ok, but the Volt is outselling the Leaf and we are upset over that. its to expected. its human nature.

But i am betting that Leaf Sales are just about exactly where Nissan wanted them to be. just a bit here and there, but just about most of the country will have a few in the neighborhood come this fall when TN cranks up.

the dramatic change in the Yen was probably not expected since Japan's economy has not been very well since their double collapse of the housing and stock market back in the 90's coupled with the massive move of electronic manufacturing to other Asian countries who can do it cheaper.

so guessing the price hike on the 2012 model was unplanned, but i believe the sales are EXACTLY where Nissan wanted them to be because

1) there is no glut of Leafs anywhere in the country. to have 100 for sale in an area that serves 10 million people is not a glut or even an adequate supply of anything other than very high end cars

2) the Leaf Factory has never laid off people, slowed production, etc

3) there is still demand in many parts of the country AND


that is where i believe, Nissan wanted the US to be.

**pent up demand in scattered parts of the country

**word of mouth personal experiences bringing in fence sitters

**Early Leafs now getting to the point where reliability and longevity issues are starting to be much less of a concern. by December, its expected we will have dozens of Leafs over 30,000 miles with one over 50,000 and most will say they have not seen a noticeable drop in range or battery degradation.

**a leveling of media FUD. its not so one-sided anymore and the reason is us. we have made enough noise that other media outlets are taking another look and have found the Leaf to be a bit more viable than at first glance ($4 gas helps)

now, will this back fire? since a half dozen other options "may" be ready this fall/winter?

probably not. because those cars will be where Nissan was 16 months ago. Keep in mind, the Leaf is the only EV with nationwide distribution at this time. MiEV is not there and the Volt aint an EV...period.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

OK, it's game on. At Maroone Nissan in Delray, ground zero for "I don't give a f*** about anything other than myself" attitudes, they've got three Leafs in stock, two featured in primo display space in front of the showroom.

Lack of availability excuses for poor sales are going to start wearing thin.

BTW the third was ignominiously parked under a tree collecting leaves and birdshit, might be the 2011 demo, not plugged in, with just the third light blinking - I don't even know what that means, maybe some error code that means plug me in or else. (Don't make me get the book out)

 

[Weatherman]

Weston Nissan has had the same three in stock since December 2011 and January 2012 (including my old orphan). Of course, very poor service and a ridiculous $700 dealer service fee might be one of the many reasons why their inventory isn't moving.

It wouldn't surprise me if all three of them have had nicely topped off batteries for the past six months as they bake out in the South Florida sunshine.

 

[Stoaty]

At Maroone Nissan in Delray, ground zero for "I don't give a f*** about anything other than myself" attitudes

Very picturesque. You certainly have a way with words. :lol:

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I also stopped by the Mitsubishi dealer there on the off chance I could see an I-Miev. They didn't have any, but the salesman gave me an earful about how they are bad for dealers, they can't sell them, they decided they aren't going to carry them, they think the whole electric thing is going to die.

 

[Alric]

I do think there will be a critical mass point when people will feel they are being left behind, or are at a disadvantage by relying on gasoline. The more LEAFs on the road, and the more people start realizing it is not necessary to have a car with a 300 mile range if your commute is 20 miles, the sooner it will happen.

Here in Madison WI LEAFs appear to be selling briskly.

 

[garsh]

...the salesman gave me an earful about how they are bad for dealers, they can't sell them...

With gas prices staying low, I can't really blame them. The limited range + price premium is a tough sell to the general public.

I do think there will be a critical mass point when people will feel they are being left behind, or are at a disadvantage by relying on gasoline.

I think only a sudden increase in gas prices, or an incredible decrease in Leaf prices, will cause sales to increase in the short term. Otherwise, electric car sales will remain low until some exceptional advancements in battery technology are obtained.