thankyouOB said:
actually, what GRA says about commutes appears to be really wrong.
Let me introduce a few facts about commuting to the discussion:
here in chart form:
http://www.bts.gov/publications/omnistats/volume_03_issue_04/html/figure_02.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
]78% of Americans have a round-trip commute under 40 miles a day.]
and this:
Average one-way commute time is 26 minutes (over an average distance of 16 miles)
--surely they cant be going 75 miles an hour.
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Traffic/story?id=485098&page=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
They report an average one-way commute time of 26 minutes (over an average distance of 16 miles). But the variance is huge: On the best days, the average commute is 19 minutes; on the worst days, 46 minutes. That means traffic, at its worst, can double the average commute time, adding 27 minutes each way.
And on average -- not at its worst, but just on average -- workers estimate that traffic congestion adds a half-hour a day to their drive, 15 minutes each way. That's an impressive time suck.http://askville.amazon.com/average-commuting-distance-americans" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;/AnswerViewer.do?requestId=2554434
also here
http://www.reference.com/motif/sports/average-commute-in-miles-for-americans" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
**********
it is a commuter car.
GRA would be better off going back to arguing that it will only work as a second car for those with an ICE for longer drives on weekends and days off.
Of course it's a commuter/urban car, never said otherwise. And I also mentioned the effects of congestion in my previous post; anyone who's seen freeways in the Bay Area or any other metropolitan area turn into a slow-moving parking lot knows the problem, and exchanging single-occupant ICEs for S-O EVs isn't going to improve anything other than pollution. Which is why governments have installed HOV and dedicated transit lanes, regional rail, and toll roads plus boosting parking rates and reducing parking spots, as well as encouraging companies to offer flex-time, all to reduce single-occupant commuting during peak-commute hours. But that doesn't mean that, for example, people commuting into S.F. or San Jose with 30-90 mile one-way commutes don't drive a large part of their commute at freeway speeds.
But this is all more or less irrelevant to my point: mainstream commuters will not be
comfortable with a BEV for commuting until it can meet the following criteria at an affordable price:
The range must be adequate for their daily commute (current as well as any likely future commute owing to moving or switching jobs), plus their normal errands plus an exceptional errand plus an emergency reserve (LBW),
1. at the end of the battery's life, and
2. In any temperature conditions the car is certified for and they are likely to encounter, and
3. At the speed(s) they normally drive, with no change to their driving habits, and
4. With the car loaded to its GVWR, and
5. With unrestricted use of the HVAC system and all other accessories, at their highest power settings, and
6. With appropriate allowances for altitude change, high winds, chains etc.
To meet all these criteria for say 90% of commuters will require cars (without TMS for battery heating) to have at least twice the Leaf's current range. Those who can plug in for battery heating at at least one end of the trip can get by with somewhat less range, but such plugging in can't be assumed until infrastructure is universal.
Example, taking the Leaf's 73 mile EPA cycle range as realistic under ideal conditions, multiply that by .7 for end of life range, or 51.1 miles (cf. azdre in the lost bar thread). Multiply that by say .8 to account for low temps (per Tony's rule of thumb of 1%/4 deg. F.) to get 40.9 miles, and then by another .9 (WAG, could be considerably more) to allow for accessory use = 36.8 miles, - 10 mile emergency reserve (at whatever max. speed the owner drives, so that it can be stretched at lower speeds) = 26.8 mile guaranteed for planning purposes. I'm assuming no chain use, major elevation changes or regular high winds.
The current range will need to be considerably increased, especially to deal with conditions outside the ones I've used, before mainstream users won't have any range anxiety issues. Right now, normal drivers who will
never need more than about 40 miles of range in temperate conditions are probably fine for the useful life of the battery.