Nissan Says US Electric Leaf Sales May Reach 12,000 in 2011

[charlie1300]

So 11,000 firm orders ? does that # agree with previous calculations?

Yes - something is not right.

Just the other day Catherine was quoted as saying 3K orders in CA etc.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=4008

CA : 3,000
WA : 750
OR : 375
AZ : ?
TX : ?
HI : ?

Rest were smaller than OR. So I'd assume a total of 4,500 to 4,750.

So, where does 11K suddenly come from ?

Also, the total reservations were supposed to be 20K (or was that in the launch states ?). So among the 20 K a lot of people are still waiting to order - let us say 5K. 11K orders out of 15K sounds very high. Moreover the phrase "The initial reservation figure ultimately shrank to 11,000 firm orders" doesn't make sense.

I wonder whether she has been misquoted.

My interpretation is that she is projecting a 55% conversion rate on the 20k reservations, which does include tier 2 and the forgotten 36 who haven't actually had an opportunity to order yet. I can't cite a link, but I seem to remember that 40% of the 20k reservations were outside the initial launch states. At a 55% conversion, that would be 6600 orders from the launch states (that seems plausible) and 4400 for the rest. My general impression of Nissan press announcements is that there is a wide variation in the definition of the word "order". :roll:

 

[evnow]

The dollar is really taking a dive lately, they almost have no choice.. probably a slight increase, some decontenting and some expensive options such as leather, 6.6kw charger and the 150 mile pack.. the 150 mile pack option comes bundled with the upgraded charger, otherwise it would take forever to charge. I think they should strip the nav and carwings from the car... you are not going that far from home, you probably know how to get there... maybe an optional spare tire for those that want one. Strip the AC out too, and add a heat pump mode option..

Forget 150 mile "pack". Without higher density battery it is not possible (there just isn't enough space).

Heat pump is more expensive than AC - so heat pump would be an unlikely addition/option. AC/Heater won't be taken out - Nissan isn't going to build something more basic than Mitsubishi i.

 

[LEAFfan]

Forget 150 mile "pack". Without higher density battery it is not possible (there just isn't enough space).

Yep, Brendan Jones told me that there will be no upgraded battery pack until at least 2015 and there will be an aftermarket 6.6 charger within a year which would be before Nissan's.

 

[Stoaty]

Yep, Brendan Jones told me that there will be no upgraded battery pack until at least 2015 and there will be an aftermarket 6.6 charger within a year which would be before Nissan's.

Did he have any guess on how much said 6.6 KW charger might cost, including installation?

 

[LEAFfan]

Yep, Brendan Jones told me that there will be no upgraded battery pack until at least 2015 and there will be an aftermarket 6.6 charger within a year which would be before Nissan's.

Did he have any guess on how much said 6.6 KW charger might cost, including installation?

No, but I would guess it will be less expensive than Nissan's. That could be one big reason they decided to have the 3.3.

 

[kmp647]

I think that might be an aftermarket evse

Not an internal charger

Unlikely anyone will make an aftermarket charger

 

[Stoaty]

I think that might be an aftermarket evse

Not an internal charger

That can't be right, because the Nissan EVSE (the Aerovironment one) already suuports 6.6 KW. It's the charger in the car that doesn't and would need to be upgraded.

 

[kmp647]

That's true.....

Still from what some have said about the wire size and with the complexity and limited market it wouldn't seem any aftermarket co could develop and sell a Internal charger made just to fit the leaf, and I believe it would only fit leaf


Just not likely to be profitable

 

[EVDRIVER]

Yep, Brendan Jones told me that there will be no upgraded battery pack until at least 2015 and there will be an aftermarket 6.6 charger within a year which would be before Nissan's.

Did he have any guess on how much said 6.6 KW charger might cost, including installation?

No, but I would guess it will be less expensive than Nissan's. That could be one big reason they decided to have the 3.3.

The LEAF charger cost is VERY low, I would bet no company could make a profit selling an aftermarket charger. If Nisan spend just a little more they could have a 6.6 onboard but from what I have heard it was issues other than cost. One of the biggest EV blunders IMO. Do not expect a Nissan upgrade or an affordable aftermarket upgrade. Perhaps about $5K installed if you are lucky.

 

[EVDRIVER]

That's true.....

Still from what some have said about the wire size and with the complexity and limited market it wouldn't seem any aftermarket co could develop and sell a Internal charger made just to fit the leaf, and I believe it would only fit leaf


Just not likely to be profitable

Not likely at all.

 

[cdub]

Well I do believe Perry said that they'd offer an upgrade to 6.6 . Let's hope that's still the case. It'll be great for opportunity charging.

 

[cdub]

Well I do believe Perry said that they'd offer an upgrade to 6.6 . Let's hope that's still the case. It'll be great for opportunity charging.

 

[hill]

I won't be surprised if they come up with a 6.6KW option.

It would also depend on Focus EV pricing. Expect Nissan to match or beat 6.6KW Focus EV price.

How's the (possible) 6.6kWh charging going to affect battery life? ... or is it going to slow up during the last 20%.

 

[Herm]

Forget 150 mile "pack". Without higher density battery it is not possible (there just isn't enough space).
Heat pump is more expensive than AC - so heat pump would be an unlikely addition/option.

Nissan has talked about a higher energy density chemistry.. Leaf 150 would use up all the space in the battery case and Leaf Classic would only take up half the space.

A single stage heat pump, one that would not work well at subzero temps is not necessarily very expensive (all it requires is a $15 reversing valve), you would still need the electric heater for really cold weather.. The more sophisticated dual stage heat pumps, using CO2 as the refrigerant are probably too expensive for cars.

How are they going to manage the release of these changes without killing their present sales?

 

[rnkepler]

Well I do believe Perry said that they'd offer an upgrade to 6.6 . Let's hope that's still the case. It'll be great for opportunity charging.

Perry clarified the initial report by saying that they were "studying" the possibility of offering an upgrade. I'd post the link to the article but for some reason plugincars.com isn't letting me go back far enough in their archive.

 

[evnow]

How's the (possible) 6.6kWh charging going to affect battery life? ... or is it going to slow up during the last 20%.

6.6KW is still to slow to have any effect on battery life.

 

[senordaley]

What could be said about "on the fencers" like me who have a reservation confirmation, but
are not willing to order due to bad customer service at SEVERAL local dealers who will not
give Nissan a good reputation based on their current sales "tactics"?

In the DFW metro area, many people are walking from deals since they are getting a higher
price at time of delivery than agreed upon price. This allows them to sell an "orphan" LEAF
to the highest John Q. Public bidder who has not a reservation and impulsively buys...

this practice has hit this forum elsewhere, and I hope Nissan is really reading up on this...
I have learned from various sources, be it Dealer "not playing games" Dealer, "playing games"
on pricing, current owners of Leafs, as well as other forum members. I can't commit to using
the online reservation by accepting a price because I know too much about what happens later...
I want a firm in-writing offer before I reserve. Some markets are up to 7% under sticker, and our
dealers appear to have a gentleman's agreement to hold the line at sticker price, no less, unless
they can getcha on an impulse, "the guy backed out, and I have a waiting list of X people, but
since you are here now..." c r a p... I won't go there. Once a dealer sells under sticker, that
becomes the new "norm" and they know it... So, they are stickin' to their guns...

Therefore, I am waiting with the knowledge that others will pass me up in the que...Why? Maybe
it will allow me to convert my reservation "purchase" into a 2012 model and take advantage of
any benefits allowed by doing so i.e. options, 6.6, etc...By then, they also have to compete with
Ford FE, and maybe they will have ironed out all the dealership "kinks" that I hope they are receiving
complaints about...

Also, a second thought on slow sales or reservations converted to sales could be the fear of
radiation contamination of the vehicle and or parts of it... I have heard others vocal about
wanting any future vehicle passing a geiger?? inspection to detect any possible level of
radiation contamination. They could be nuts, but who knows...

I spoke to a Cert. Leaf dealership salesman in Houston, even though 5 hours away, to see if
I could negotiate a price lower than my market.. Not too lucky on that front. However, the guy
did tell me that on the 15th of June there is going to be a big time meeting about the LEAF...

I will wait to see what he learns from that meeting, as we hit it off pretty well. I would buy from
him and tow it back if his sales manager/owner would go low enough to cover my trailer rental
and gas, for even a small but significant savings. They said they couldn't do it, even for a
confirmed sale due to my reservation status...

 

[shay]

In the DFW metro area, many people are walking from deals since they are getting a higher
price at time of delivery than agreed upon price. This allows them to sell an "orphan" LEAF
to the highest John Q. Public bidder who has not a reservation and impulsively buys...

What dealers are doing this?