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Sorry, Herm. I'm going to have to disagree.

Fossil Fuel inputs: To make 22 gallons of ethanol 1 gallon of diesel is used (tractors, tankers etc) and 1 gallon diesel energy equivalent in coal and/or natural gas for process heat, fertilizer etc.. the rest of the energy comes from the sun. We have plenty of gas and coal.. in Brasil they do better because they burn the sugar cane waste for process heat.

Unfortunately, these numbers are incorrect. Many estimates place corn production at a 10:1 ratio. That is, it takes 10 calories in (fertilizer, fuel, etc.) to get 1 calorie out. Yes, the sun adds calories, but don't forget that we only use a small portion of the plant. Even the most optimistic estimate only allow the sun to double the energy--2 gallons ethanol for 1 gallon whatever. See: http://www.carbohydrateeconomy.org/...ch_Energy_Does_it_Take_to_Make_a_Gallon_.html

Finally, my family owns a farm. It takes hundreds and hundres of pounds of fertilizer for just a few dozen acres. The gallon figures you use are inaccurate except on the most fertile of soil, which is and will be a rarity until we move to more sustainable practices, which are more expensive.

Water resources: In some places water is plentiful, not in others.. in any case sustainable farming practices should be used.. unlike what is going on in California.
The illusion that water is plentiful is unfortunate. Aquifers all over the world are being pumped at an astounding rate. This includes "rainy" areas like the midwest where the huge majority of corn is grown. The side effects of increased irrigation are many, so I'll just name a few: fertilizer runoff (wasted energy!), increased salinity of the soil, less potable water for humans... The problem here is to think that plentiful water and sustainable practices go together. Unfortunately the oil economy has warped our sense of what is "normal" and sustainable.

Prices of corn for the poor: I think the poor are still going to have trouble if the farmers dont plant corn because its not profitable. Cost of corn is maintained stable by ethanol.. there is some debate about it affecting food prices in Mexico and it definitely increases the cost of meat a bit... cost of diesel probably has a bigger impact.

Unfortunately reducing corn prices have actually devastated Mexico. One of the huge immigration pressures of the last 15 years can be found in NAFTA, which puts American subsidized corn in competition with unsubsidized, unfertilized corn in Mexico. The workers you see coming into the U.S. have given up farming in Mexico because we undercut them in a relatively simple cause-effect scenario. So yes, a tortilla costs less in Mexico City, but the rural poor are suffering and coming here. In terms of farm policy in Mexico or the U.S., this rural-urban divide is essentially a new form of colonialism. The large markets on either coast are exploiting the people and the land of the interiors, extracting huge amounts of products and making a profit on the surplus value. Unfortunately both political parties are more than happy to place the corporate profit above the interests of farmers and small manufacturers.

As far as paying money to keep farms inactive (our policy from 1935 to the Nixon years), well, it worked. It kept farms productive and the price of food fairly stable. During that time the middle class grew faster and bigger than it ever has since. Overproduction of food, while not all bad, has also led to all sorts of ills, both environmental and societal: pollution, monocrop production, obesity, etc.

Ethanol is, at the absolutely most optimistic, a doubling of energy that allows for profiteering at many points in the production line (huge subsidized farms, fertilizer and seed manufacturers, corn markets, ethanol producers, oil distribution network, etc.). It seems the better option is to develop cars that are twice as efficient (already very possible) and convert to more sustainable practices: solar and wind. LET'S CUT OUT THE MIDDLEMEN!

Cheers-

Andy
 
Looks like Andy may have beat me to the punch, as I also need to disagree with Herm. Here are a few more arguments to add to Andy's excellent post.

Most studies put the energy balance for Corn ethanol between 1.2 and 1.6...with the 1.6 coming from a very pro corn ethanol site. Meaning for every 1 unit of energy 1.2-1.6 units of energy are produced. In contrast sugar ethanol has an energy balance of 8. Here is one study to illustrate how this is calculated.

http://content.imamu.edu.sa/Scholars/it/net/usda_shapouri.pdf

The use of corn for ethanol has driven up the price for food worldwide...and not just corn. Because more acres are growing corn, the supply of other grains and crops has decreased. In "Hot, Flat, and Crowded", Thomas L. Friedman discusses how growing food prices are causing instability in many countries...he specifically mentions Egypt.

My last point is that there is a definite environmental impact with subsidizing corn. Here in Minnesota we are seeing lots of marginal farmland that had previously been set aside now tiled and plowed to grow corn. The result is lost wildlife habitat, more severe flooding (this year will be very bad), and more use of chemicals.
 
Herm said:
There is a requirement for ethanol to be blended in, on top of that there is a subsidy ($0.40 per gallon I think) that the consumer ends up getting.. and that is not good, we dont need to encourage people to drive more. The blenders (refineries) get that money but they just pass it along.

I find burning food to fuel vehicles morally reprehensible.

You take out Iowa's undemocratic special status as the country's first caucus, you can kill the ethonol subsidy.

So yes, I think corn ethanol is not a bad idea.. given all the options.
I'm not going to answer point by point. I suggest you start reading up on sustainability issues with commercial farming practices, you will know what we have been talking about.

No it is not a bad idea - it is a terrible idea.

ps : You can read very good articles on corn ethonol (and other bio-diesels) by Robert Rapier at TOD.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7017


Also, look at this meta-analysis

http://netenergy.theoildrum.com/node/6760
 
In the "Spin over Substance" department...

Senate Bill 228 "Defending America's Affordable Energy and Jobs Act"
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s112-228

Who doesn't like the idea of affordable energy? Who doesn't think we could use more decent jobs in the US? So far this bill sounds great! Can we have a round of applause for these Real American Leaders:

Sen. John Barrasso [R-WY]
Cosponsors:
Roy Blunt [R-MO]
John Boozman [R-AR]
Thad Cochran [R-MS]
John Cornyn [R-TX]
Jim DeMint [R-SC]
Michael Enzi [R-WY]
Orrin Hatch [R-UT]
John Hoeven [R-ND]
James Inhofe [R-OK]
John Isakson [R-GA]
Mike Lee [R-UT]
Jerry Moran [R-KS]
James Risch [R-ID]
Pat Roberts [R-KS]
John Thune [R-SD]
David Vitter [R-LA]

Let's see what these fine public servants are doing to take care of our country.

They're trying to:
- Restrict any state's right to limit, tax or regulate dirty energy that enters their state
- Restrict legal action against any power producer that emits greenhouse gases
- Restrict the court able to examine and judge actions to the US Court of Appeals in DC
- Restrict the President or head of any federal agency from acting against this bill
- Prohibit the Federal Government from adopting state greenhouse gas laws or requirements
- Restricts the EPA from regulating greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles or "stationary emitters"

There's more, but you can probably see what's happening...

There's nothing in here about jobs and nothing about affordable energy. Just business as usual for a group funded by and primarily focused on supporting their fossil-fuel buddies.

Here's a response from a co-sponsor. I asked him to remove himself from this and any other bill targeting the EPA.
From: [email protected]
Sent: Thursday, February 24, 2011 9:42 AM
To:
Subject: Thank You For Contacting My Office

Dear AndyH:

Thank you for contacting me regarding the Environmental Protection Agency’s greenhouse gas endangerment finding. I appreciate having the benefit of your views on this matter.

In April 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court concluded in Massachusetts v. EPA that carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases may be regulated under the Clean Air Act (CAA). In response to this decision, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a finding on December 7, 2009, that the present concentrations of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, constitute an endangerment to public health and welfare. A second EPA finding concluded that emissions from new motor vehicles and their engines also endanger public health, and therefore are also subject to regulation under the CAA. I am pleased that our nation’s air quality has steadily improved since implementation of the CAA; however, I remain concerned that the treatment of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, as pollutants under the CAA is a disservice to the American people and misrepresents the legislative intent of the Act.

I support efforts to improve our nation's air quality based on sound scientific and economic principles. However, any decisions regarding how to control greenhouse gas emissions should take into consideration the impact these costly regulations will have on stakeholders, including states, industries, and citizens. Furthermore, it is essential that this process is transparent and accountable to all Americans, and I strongly believe that Congress is the most appropriate forum to review the scope and magnitude of the impact that the EPA's endangerment finding would have on our economy.

To this end, I am a co-sponsor of the Defending America's Affordable Energy and Jobs Act (S. 228), which would prevent the EPA from implementing its greenhouse gas regulations or any substantially similar regulations. Empowering unelected bureaucrats to impose a new national energy tax on American families is unacceptable, and I look forward to a full and open policy debate as the Senate continues its work on this matter.

I appreciate having the opportunity to represent the interests of Texans in the United States Senate. Thank you for taking the time to contact me.

Sincerely,
JOHN CORNYN
United States Senator
 
Wait for abolition of EPA to be a hot topic in the Republican primary.

ps : I think with peak oil, this will happen in future. Every environmental regulation will be either ignored or dismantled by a Congress/Electorate that can't think past next weekend.
 
LeafinThePark said:
Most studies put the energy balance for Corn ethanol between 1.2 and 1.6...with the 1.6 coming from a very pro corn ethanol site. Meaning for every 1 unit of energy 1.2-1.6 units of energy are produced. In contrast sugar ethanol has an energy balance of 8.

Yes, the famous, deceptive but true, energy argument..

Ethanol has 84,600BTU/gal, Diesel has 138,700BTU/gal .. so the energy ratio I used is 6.7:1, close to the numbers you mentioned. The 1.6 number is coming from a very thorough DOE study that takes into account even the lunch the farmer eats (g).

So let me repeat what I said.. to make 22 gallons of ethanol you need 1 gallon of diesel and 1 gallon-diesel energy equivalent in coal and/or NG. We have plenty of coal and NG, but we do have to import a lot of oil to make diesel. Thus we can stretch our fuel supply 22 to 1, and keep the farm lobby happy.. sounds like a win-win to me.

I think ethanol from corn, while not perfect, is a good stop-gap process now.. dont forget that the distillers only use the starch of the corn.. the leftovers still have excellent food value.

Now that we agree on this, how do you feel about methanol from coal process?.. I like it a lot.. granted that methanol is very toxic but so is gasoline (about the same toxicity), we can also make synthetic gasoline/diesel from coal but with higher energy losses.
 
evnow said:
Wait for abolition of EPA to be a hot topic in the Republican primary.

ps : I think with peak oil, this will happen in future. Every environmental regulation will be either ignored or dismantled by a Congress/Electorate that can't think past next weekend.

Its funny, when your constituents back home are rioting and starving it will be amazing how fast many laws get repealed. The EPA made a power grab to regulate AGW and they will pay for it.. they will be corrected to their conservative origins before the dust settles.

The scary part is when they relax safety standards in the emergency rush to build nukes.
 
evnow said:
I find burning food to fuel vehicles morally reprehensible.

You take out Iowa's undemocratic special status as the country's first caucus, you can kill the ethonol subsidy.

ps : You can read very good articles on corn ethonol (and other bio-diesels) by Robert Rapier at TOD.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7017

Yes I do read Robert Rapier religiously, he is very good. He recently tore a hole in the cellulosic ethanol craze that is going on now. This is where he hangs out, the oil drum is full of doomers:

http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/boards/

One thing that I do find repugnant is burning corn to generate heat.. yes I know its cheaper than wood pellets but could you not wear a sweater and turn down the thermostat instead?
 
Herm said:
Yes I do read Robert Rapier religiously, he is very good.
Then I don't see how how you can be pro-corn ethanol.

The EPA made a power grab to regulate AGW and they will pay for it..
I guess you are not happy EPA doesn't let Power companies rape the earth for short term profits.
 
Herm said:
The 1.6 number is coming from a very thorough DOE study that takes into account even the lunch the farmer eats (g).

From the meta analysis ...

The results from our meta-error analysis indicated that the average EROI for corn ethanol was 1.07 with a standard error of 0.1.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/24/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?iid=HLM

Gasoline up six cents per gallon this week. Fuel price analysts suggest we have another 10-15 cents to go to catch up with today's crude prices.

Prices are up 4.2% this month and the national average jumped 3.4 cents overnight.

As with anything else, this can be judged good or bad depending on perspective. The fuel companies are loving it, as they are getting increased profits from the oil and fuel currently in the system - they didn't pay higher prices but will reap higher profits. It may be seen as progress by the alternative energy and alternative transportation folks. It's making life more difficult for the folks that are trying to live on $10/hour jobs and will soon have to cut back on food to keep gasoline in their cars so they can get to work.
 
AndyH said:
As with anything else, this can be judged good or bad depending on perspective. The fuel companies are loving it, as they are getting increased profits from the oil and fuel currently in the system - they didn't pay higher prices but will reap higher profits. It may be seen as progress by the alternative energy and alternative transportation folks. It's making life more difficult for the folks that are trying to live on $10/hour jobs and will soon have to cut back on food to keep gasoline in their cars so they can get to work.
Ironically Americans don't like giving extra money to the government but will give more, much more, to oil companies and middle east dictators.

May be people will start demanding better public transport if this keeps up. There are no short term fixes here ....
 
AndyH said:
Gasoline up six cents per gallon this week. Fuel price analysts suggest we have another 10-15 cents to go to catch up with today's crude prices.
Ouch. Gas is about $3.60/gal around here. $3.75 should get a lot of people's attention. Have already seen a couple stations selling premium/diesel for $4.05.
 
evnow said:
Ironically Americans don't like giving extra money to the government but will give more, much more, to oil companies and middle east dictators.
And most don't even realize how much of their tax money is also going to oil companies. We're paying three times for a gallon of gas thru the government and once at the pump.

evnow said:
May be people will start demanding better public transport if this keeps up. There are no short term fixes here ....
Many here in S Texas are happy to get a $10/hour job. During the last fuel price jump, companies were starting to rent vans to use as company car-pools -- because the employees couldn't afford to buy gas to get to work. And our fuel prices are nowhere near California levels.

Last night Diesel was $3.399 and regular gas was $2.999. Gasoline is running $3.05 (87) to $3.34 (prem) today, with Diesel up to $3.459.

I am SO loving my electric motorcycle!
 
I have a feeling gasoline will go into the low $4 range on this cycle. Mass transit ridership will increase and more compact will be sold. The gasoline will fall to mid $3 and everyone will return to their old habits even though the price is on average higher. This sawtooth upward pattern has been going on for years.
 
I just saw $3.99 :shock: on my way to the Mission Viejo Mall. It will go low 4ish settle back under 4 in April and then take off for summer. July will be mid/upper 4's and 5 for diesel out here in Cali.
 
AndyH said:
evnow said:
Ironically Americans don't like giving extra money to the government but will give more, much more, to oil companies and middle east dictators.
And most don't even realize how much of their tax money is also going to oil companies. We're paying three times for a gallon of gas thru the government and once at the pump.
I remember when Gore suggested a few cents of gas tax increase, everyone was screaming. Now they pay more than 200 cents extra and all of that goes to big oil / OPEC.

Yes - I almost think the "tea party" types love OPEC governments and hate US government.
 
evnow said:
Yes - I almost think the "tea party" types love OPEC governments and hate US government.
I nominate evnow to head the new Oil Party - any seconds? :)

Of course, we'll dump something non-toxic and biodegradable into the water.
 
I have a feeling $4 may stick this time for good. Damand in the $3 range would grow too fast.
Demand might be flat in the USA at $4 but elsewhere growth will continue and bid the price up.
I don't think we completely own the damand curve anymore.
 
smkettner said:
I have a feeling $4 may stick this time for good. Damand in the $3 range would grow too fast.
Demand might be flat in the USA at $4 but elsewhere growth will continue and bid the price up.
I don't think we completely own the damand curve anymore.
Currently the price is a reflection of the uncertainties rather than actual oil shortage. So, if the Libya/Bahrain etc issues get resolved, the price may ease back. If the Libyan unrest becomes a civil war (or the unrest spends to other countries) price will claimb. Interesting days for an oil trader.
 
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