Switching The World To Electric Vehicles Will Take Way Longer Than You Think

[DesertSprings]

As the CAFE standard rises and assuming gas prices stay low, I wonder just how much discount will be applied to electric cars to make them sell enough to keep churning out poor mileage gas cars?

 

[arnis]

I'm happy to observe that push for electrification is from both direction: pulling and pushing :lol:
Pulling: incentives for EVs - those who buy emission-free vehicles pay less.
Pushing: exhaust limitations (aka fuel consumption limitations).
*(Blowing): In Europe some countries tax buyers for buying ICEs and limit the use in some zones.

In Europe for example, 2015 target was 130 g of CO2/km, that translates to 5,6l/100km of gasoline or 4,9l/100km of diesel (50/57 mpg).
That was achieved (in unrealistic test cycle). In real life fuel consumption compared to NEDC is 40% higher (pretty much CAFE numbers*)
Next target is 2021 and 95 g of CO2/km 4,1 and 3,6 l/100km (69/78 mpg) in unrealistic cycle (or maybe not; WLTC is phased in soon).

Manufacturers don't really have a choice. Same thing in US (CAFE).
US and EU have no control over oil price so they have to do it indirectly.

*
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#Agreed_standards_by_model_year.2C_2011-2025

All that means that in 5 years most vehicles that are being sold will have 1-20kWh battery pack on board. And a plug!
Plug is there for emission limits, not for everybody to use.
And I agree. I'm happy to see slow electrification rather than few Leafs and Teslas. Everybody HAS to participate.
I'm worried for some manufacturers that don't even have a plan jet

 

[GRA]

Another forecast, via ABG:

Lux: In 2035, half of new vehicles sold will plug in

http://www.autoblog.com/2016/03/01/lux-2035-half-new-vehicles-sold-plug-in/

. . . Lux Research has introduced what it calls its "EV Inflection Tracker," and while it's restricting access to the tool to clients (kind of like Tesla Motors and its high-powered Supercharger network), the firm has released some tidbits. Namely that the so-called "EV Inflection Point", i.e. the moment when plug-in vehicles will account for more than half of new car sales, will occur sometime between 2035 and 2040. . . .

In related news, also ABG:

The country most excited about EVs might take a breather
Norway's EV hangover leads to new proposals.

http://www.autoblog.com/2016/03/01/the-country-most-excited-about-evs-might-take-a-breather/

. . . In addition to the monetary price of an EV binge, bus and commuter lanes in some areas have become congested with electric cars. This EV hangover has the government reevaluating its programs to incentivize their usage, considering new proposals that would reduce or even remove some of the perks drivers currently enjoy.

Among the perks that might go away: free or reduced tolls for highways and ferries; exemption from local taxes; HOV lane privileges; free/preferential parking. Sales tax/VAT exemptions are likely to stay at least until the end of 2017. IMO changes are overdue.

 

[camasleaf]

Some think that the electric cars will come sooner:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkiley5/2016/02/29/report-cost-of-electric-vehicles-falling-fast-will-drive-demand/

it is a long tread. I am Not sure what the initial assumptions were.

 

[smkettner]

The real change will be when unit price of the ICE vehicles starts to climb as volume drops.
Opposite will happen in EVs.

If volume is dropping.... development of new models will slow to a crawl.
JMHO

 

[AndyH]

Another view of mining and peaks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/02/22/3720343/peak-oil-demand/

Demand will drop before we run out of supply. There will be a peak, and prices will change but it isn't the Peak we thought of in the 70s.

Demand for oil does appear to be dropping. In order to catalyze that, however, we're increasing the rate of consumption of aluminum, copper, and other materials. Which is really close to what I've been saying.

So, I go back to the as yet unanswered question: Do we have enough of the specific materials needed to make enough BEVs do do what we need to do?