Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

[ydnas7]

http://www.toyota.com/about/images/operations/numbers/TMOB0166_2013_LARGE_BROCHURE_WEB_USE_tiled2.pdf
2013, Toyota had 5,814 direct and 20,455 dealer jobs in California

if each 'dealer' job had a multiplication of 3 (for shared with other brands, in the chain) then that is about 65,000 potential customers within the Toyota family in California. Due to requirement for hydro-static testing, the life of Mirai is probably 5 years, (or if they are lucky, it might be 10 years and include 1 expensive test) 5 years is the realistic USA life (fresh Mirai equates to fresh CARBs)

Keeping it in the family, Toyota could lease 12,000 Mirai per year, indefinitely, in California, and not saturate its internal market.

 

[Marktm]

Nope, I'm just a boring consumer and I don't tinker much. The car is just a tool to me. The most nerdy I've gone is using Torque Pro to monitor the car's system activity (TMS, power, etc.) via the OBD2 port. If you're so inclined you can read all about it on the mykiasoulev forums.

I'll do some research as the Soul appears to have good battery technology and likely more up to date features? The Leaf is a little dated. BTW, I just hit 8 bars yesterday - so I should have a new Leaf battery (under warrantee) for my off-grid "experiments" within a month or so.
Thanks

 

[GRA]

http://www.toyota.com/about/images/operations/numbers/TMOB0166_2013_LARGE_BROCHURE_WEB_USE_tiled2.pdf
2013, Toyota had 5,814 direct and 20,455 dealer jobs in California

if each 'dealer' job had a multiplication of 3 (for shared with other brands, in the chain) then that is about 65,000 potential customers within the Toyota family in California. Due to requirement for hydro-static testing, the life of Mirai is probably 5 years, (or if they are lucky, it might be 10 years and include 1 expensive test) 5 years is the realistic USA life (fresh Mirai equates to fresh CARBs)

Keeping it in the family, Toyota could lease 12,000 Mirai per year, indefinitely, in California, and not saturate its internal market.

Gee, some of my every 5 years hydrostatically tested scuba tanks are now well over 15 years old, and I know someone who has some tanks that are 40+ and still in service. IIRR, the last time I had it done it cost me $35 each. Since the H2 tanks have to be tested to a higher pressure, let's guess it will cost $250 or even $1,000. Yeah, an extra $50-$200/year is definitely way beyond the means of anyone who can afford to buy a car priced at $57.5k. Not that anyone _should_ buy one - they should lease, and let the tanks and the price of fuel be Toyota's problem for now.

 

[GRA]

As I expected, Jay Cole @ IEVS doesn't have access to the fleet/private sales breakdown for the Mirai.

 

[Firetruck41]

http://www.toyota.com/about/images/operations/numbers/TMOB0166_2013_LARGE_BROCHURE_WEB_USE_tiled2.pdf
2013, Toyota had 5,814 direct and 20,455 dealer jobs in California

if each 'dealer' job had a multiplication of 3 (for shared with other brands, in the chain) then that is about 65,000 potential customers within the Toyota family in California. Due to requirement for hydro-static testing, the life of Mirai is probably 5 years, (or if they are lucky, it might be 10 years and include 1 expensive test) 5 years is the realistic USA life (fresh Mirai equates to fresh CARBs)

Keeping it in the family, Toyota could lease 12,000 Mirai per year, indefinitely, in California, and not saturate its internal market.

Gee, some of my every 5 years hydrostatically tested scuba tanks are now well over 15 years old, and I know someone who has some tanks that are 40+ and still in service. IIRR, the last time I had it done it cost me $35 each. Since the H2 tanks have to be tested to a higher pressure, let's guess it will cost $250 or even $1,000. Yeah, an extra $50-$200/year is definitely way beyond the means of anyone who can afford to buy a car priced at $57.5k. Not that anyone _should_ buy one - they should lease, and let the tanks and the price of fuel be Toyota's problem for now.

No idea about the mirai tanks, but our SCBA composite tanks are hydro tested every 5 years but have a DOT life of only 15 years.

 

[GRA]

Gee, some of my every 5 years hydrostatically tested scuba tanks are now well over 15 years old, and I know someone who has some tanks that are 40+ and still in service. IIRR, the last time I had it done it cost me $35 each. Since the H2 tanks have to be tested to a higher pressure, let's guess it will cost $250 or even $1,000. Yeah, an extra $50-$200/year is definitely way beyond the means of anyone who can afford to buy a car priced at $57.5k. Not that anyone _should_ buy one - they should lease, and let the tanks and the price of fuel be Toyota's problem for now.

No idea about the mirai tanks, but our SCBA composite tanks are hydro tested every 5 years but have a DOT life of only 15 years.

What kind of pressure - the composite scuba tanks I've seen were rated to 5,000? 5,500? PSI for normal service IIRR, and I forget how much of a safety factor is required for testing. Until there are a lot more compressors that can fill them, it doesn't make much sense for scuba (the same chicken/egg problem that afflicts all new tech with different infrastructure requirements).

Assuming anyone wanted to buy rapidly developing 1st gen tech, 15 years is a reasonable lifetime for a car (far better than a battery pack is likely to last at the moment). But again, no one should buy these cars now.

 

[Firetruck41]

What kind of pressure -

4500psi

 

[mtndrew1]

The Mirai has an expiration date on its fuel filler cap. I took a photo of it on the one I drove.

[/URL]

 

[GRA]

So, 15 year life, after which the tank is presumably condemned or needs inspection/testing, and can then either be re-certified or replaced, depending on the regs.

 

[smkettner]

I will be interested what happens in three years when the free fuel runs out.
Will Toyota even resell lease returns? Will people pay the residual?

That tank expiration is probably meaningless. JMHO

 

[ydnas7]

I will be interested what happens in three years when the free fuel runs out.
Will Toyota even resell lease returns? Will people pay the residual?

That tank expiration is probably meaningless. JMHO

Non US specs tend to be 15year for EOL for the tank, and 3yrly/36,000mile equiv, tank inspections by qualified personnel.
So no hydrostatic testing, but a rubbish bin at 15 years for the tank, plus highly profitably servicing by Toyota.

US standards tend to require Hydrostatic testing, so the question is? what are the requirements for Mirai USA? I would assume that Toyota is doing all it can do to avoid hydro-static testing of its Mirai tanks.

That tank expiration is not meaningless, but pragmatically, enforcement is up to the state registration entity.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I will be interested what happens in three years when the free fuel runs out.
Will Toyota even resell lease returns? Will people pay the residual?

That tank expiration is probably meaningless. JMHO

Non US specs tend to be 15year for EOL for the tank, and 3yrly/36,000mile equiv, tank inspections by qualified personnel.
So no hydrostatic testing, but a rubbish bin at 15 years for the tank, plus highly profitably servicing by Toyota.

US standards tend to require Hydrostatic testing, so the question is? what are the requirements for Mirai USA? I would assume that Toyota is doing all it can do to avoid hydro-static testing of its Mirai tanks.

That tank expiration is not meaningless, but pragmatically, enforcement is up to the state registration entity.

There was a safety rule that a Toyota was able to become exempt from in the US, but I never learned what rule that was. Maybe it has something to do with this tank.

 

[ydnas7]

There was a safety rule that a Toyota was able to become exempt from in the US, but I never learned what rule that was. Maybe it has something to do with this tank.

Nope, that rule was about high voltage power and Mirai's need to stay live even in case of accident.

As far as ongoing tank hydrostatic testing requirements suppose those who buy will care, but those who lease, not an issue anyway.

 

[ydnas7]

I will be interested what happens in three years when the free fuel runs out.
Will Toyota even resell lease returns? Will people pay the residual?

That tank expiration is probably meaningless. JMHO

Mirai 66mpge
Prius 52mpg
Escalade 17mpg
http://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=36691&id=38061
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fcv_sbs.shtml

Gas in Ca seems s to be about $2.20 today, lets round up to $2.50
700 bar H2 is about $15.00 in California

Mirai is about 22cents per mile fuel cost
Prius is about 5 cents per mile fuel cost
Escalade is about 14 cents per mile fuel cost

so roughly, either Toyota keeps paying for free fuel, or these cars get parked up. A Mirai is about 50% more expensive than a Escalade in fuel costs.

 

[mtndrew1]

Mirai 66mpge
Prius 52mpg
Escalade 17mpg
http://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=36691&id=38061
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fcv_sbs.shtml

Gas in Ca seems s to be about $2.20 today, lets round up to $2.50
700 bar H2 is about $15.00 in California

Mirai is about 22cents per mile fuel cost
Prius is about 5 cents per mile fuel cost
Escalade is about 14 cents per mile fuel cost

so roughly, either Toyota keeps paying for free fuel, or these cars get parked up. A Mirai is about 50% more expensive than a Escalade in fuel costs.

I specifically asked the Toyota rep about this and her reply was that the company expects H2 to retail for $6/kg by the time the three years of "free" fuel expires. If I'm not mistaken Toyota just gives each customer a gas card with a $15,000 credit applied to it.

She claimed that in an ideal situation it only costs about $2.50 to produce one kg of H2, so $6 would allow a margin for the station operator, upkeep on the equipment, etc. She was extremely quick to change the subject when I inquired about the feedstock for $2.50 H2, so I took that to mean it would be mostly steam reformed nat gas.

 

[GRA]

I specifically asked the Toyota rep about this and her reply was that the company expects H2 to retail for $6/kg by the time the three years of "free" fuel expires. If I'm not mistaken Toyota just gives each customer a gas card with a $15,000 credit applied to it.

She claimed that in an ideal situation it only costs about $2.50 to produce one kg of H2, so $6 would allow a margin for the station operator, upkeep on the equipment, etc. She was extremely quick to change the subject when I inquired about the feedstock for $2.50 H2, so I took that to mean it would be mostly steam reformed nat gas.

3 years strikes me as aggressive and pretty unlikely to reach $6.00/kg., and barring an increase to say $3.00/gal. they'd still need to subsidize the fuel a bit. A couple of years back they were talking about $7.00/kg. by IIRR 2018 or 20?, but that was predicated on reaching comparable price to gas, then at ca. $3.50/gal here. The lower gas prices stay, the longer they'll have to subsidize.

 

[RegGuheert]

Toyota has managed to move a total of 26 Mirais in the UK in about a year of sales there. They moved 3.66 per month during the last quarter.

I'd say that's a far cry from Toyota's claim that you would see hydrogen cars here and there by now:

Ten years from now, you'll begin to see hydrogen-powered cars here and there.

Quote was from the following documentary:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZZGpMjJr4A[/youtube]

 

[WetEV]

Mirai is about 22cents per mile fuel cost
Prius is about 5 cents per mile fuel cost
Escalade is about 14 cents per mile fuel cost

Leaf is sub 1 cent per mile fuel cost, for the lowest electric rates, per mile.
I pay about 2 cents per mile fuel cost.

National average is according to EPA is 3.84 cents per mile fuel cost.

Prius Eco, at 56 MPG combined, EPA says 3.96 cents per mile at current gasoline price.

EPA says 2016 Toyota Mirai will cost 12 cents per mile fuel cost, at $5.55 per kg H

 

[GRA]

Mirai is about 22cents per mile fuel cost
Prius is about 5 cents per mile fuel cost
Escalade is about 14 cents per mile fuel cost

Leaf is sub 1 cent per mile fuel cost, for the lowest electric rates, per mile.
I pay about 2 cents per mile fuel cost.

National average is according to EPA is 3.84 cents per mile fuel cost.

Prius Eco, at 56 MPG combined, EPA says 3.96 cents per mile at current gasoline price.

EPA says 2016 Toyota Mirai will cost 12 cents per mile fuel cost, at $5.55 per kg H

Which is ridiculous on two counts, as H2 currently is priced at over twice that, and no customer is paying for H2 now.

 

[user 10599]

Which is ridiculous on two counts, as H2 currently is priced at over twice that, and no customer is paying for H2 now.

Actually you have to figure the customer is paying for that fuel, just upfront to buy that charge card. From the presentation IIRC, they sell the car for $50k, but you get a $15k charge card for the H2. That means the owner has in fact paid $35k for the car and $15k for fuel upfront. And they are burning through that charge card at twice the price used in the EPA calculation.