TSLA stock price discussion thread

[redLEAF]

Shares up pre-market 2% ...

"Tesla, headed by billionaire Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, has forecast Model S sales will reach 21,000 units this year, with deliveries to Europe and Asia beginning in the second half."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-hundreds-of-model-s-orders-in-hong-kong.html

 

[evnow]

What does it take to move TSLA up by 5% ? Reports of about 300 orders from HongKong !!

 

[Zythryn]

TSLA added to the NASDAQ-100 as of July 15th.
It will be replacing Oracle.

 

[apvbguy]

TSLA added to the NASDAQ-100 as of July 15th.
It will be replacing Oracle.

that is a very bullish development

 

[TomT]

My thousand shares are enjoying it!

TSLA added to the NASDAQ-100 as of July 15th.
It will be replacing Oracle.

that is a very bullish development

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Looks like Goldman Sachs is backing up the train.

 

[mitch672]

Looks like Goldman Sachs is backing up the train.

Yes, heavy handed (but indirect) manipulation today, managed to push it down %15
Lets assume they have actual knowledge of the August 7th 2nd quarter earning report, what they did today is actually criminal and fraud, they should be held accountable and prosecuted, but no one will, it's just the way stocks are manipulated by these thieves. It's what the SEC is supposed to police, but never does. It's really shameful. Within a day or two after the earnings, the stock will be as high or be making new all time highs, just watch..

 

[derkraut]

Looks like Goldman Sachs is backing up the train.

Yes, heavy handed (but indirect) manipulation today, managed to push it down %15
Lets assume they have actual knowledge of the August 7th 2nd quarter earning report, what they did today is actually criminal and fraud, they should be held accountable and prosecuted, but no one will, it's just the way stocks are manipulated by these thieves. It's what the SEC is supposed to police, but never does. It's really shameful. Within a day or two after the earnings, the stock will be as high or be making new all time highs, just watch..

Uh--I'm a bit confused, Mitch. You state that what Goldman Sachs did today is criminal and fraud? Specifically what law have they violated/what fraud have they committed today? :?

 

[mitch672]

Looks like Goldman Sachs is backing up the train.

Yes, heavy handed (but indirect) manipulation today, managed to push it down %15
Lets assume they have actual knowledge of the August 7th 2nd quarter earning report, what they did today is actually criminal and fraud, they should be held accountable and prosecuted, but no one will, it's just the way stocks are manipulated by these thieves. It's what the SEC is supposed to police, but never does. It's really shameful. Within a day or two after the earnings, the stock will be as high or be making new all time highs, just watch..

Uh--I'm a bit confused, Mitch. You state that what Goldman Sachs did today is criminal and fraud? Specifically what law have they violated/what fraud have they committed today? :?

They issued an "upgrade" (which they knew would tank the stock), by placing 3 future prices on the stock then averaging them to get $84/share (which is substantially lower than the $127 it started out at this morning). Basically they manipulated the retail buyers, it's called "shaking the tree" or "picking the weak hands". They basically are in bed with TSLA, they did the last round of stock issuing (raising $1.03billion), placed it with their clients. They most likely are aware what Tesla is going to report on 8/7. They basically gather as much stock cheaply for their clients as they can, as they can load up, and why look here, TSLA announces they beat the analysts estimates (surprise surprise), the stock shoots way back up, making yet another all time high on August 8th. Just wait and watch. This is no "conspiracy theory", it's commonly done market manipulation, outright thievery.

Go read the TMC short term TSLA price thread for all of the details.

Here is a sample post from the thread:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/14261-Short-Term-TSLA-Price-Movements/page411?p=387199&viewfull=1#post387199" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

If GS knows the Q2 results - both TSLA & GS should be booked for fraud.

But they won't be since federal govt is just a wholly owned subsidiary of GS.

 

[cwerdna]

Yes, heavy handed (but indirect) manipulation today, managed to push it down %15
Lets assume they have actual knowledge of the August 7th 2nd quarter earning report, what they did today is actually criminal and fraud, they should be held accountable and prosecuted, but no one will, it's just the way stocks are manipulated by these thieves. It's what the SEC is supposed to police, but never does. It's really shameful. Within a day or two after the earnings, the stock will be as high or be making new all time highs, just watch..

Uh--I'm a bit confused, Mitch. You state that what Goldman Sachs did today is criminal and fraud? Specifically what law have they violated/what fraud have they committed today? :?

They issued an "upgrade" (which they knew would tank the stock), by placing 3 future prices on the stock then averaging them to get $84/share (which is substantially lower than the $127 it started out at this morning). Basically they manipulated the retail buyers, it's called "shaking the tree" or "picking the weak hands". They basically are in bed with TSLA, they did the last round of stock issuing (raising $1.03billion), placed it with their clients. They most likely are aware what Tesla is going to report on 8/7. They basically gather as much stock cheaply for their clients as they can, as they can load up, and why look here, TSLA announces they beat the analysts estimates (surprise surprise), the stock shoots way back up, making yet another all time high on August 8th. Just wait and watch. This is no "conspiracy theory", it's commonly done market manipulation, outright thievery.

Go read the TMC short term TSLA price thread for all of the details.

Here is a sample post from the thread:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/14261-Short-Term-TSLA-Price-Movements/page411?p=387199&viewfull=1#post387199" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This wouldn't be the first time a brokerage, analyst, financial institution, publication, etc. has made some projection, statement, report, etc. about a stock that has moved it one way or another. Illegal? I dunno. It's done all the time.

They or others could've shorted the stock or done a bearish trade (e.g. bought puts) prior to the "news".

As for 8/7/13 being earnings, it's listed at http://ir.teslamotors.com/events.cfm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; but I guess they just announced that today. It doesn't take rocket science to figure it out even before they announce the date. If you use a good trading platform or stock charts, they'll show you on the chart when previous earnings calls were. You can easily make a pretty good guess by just going back and looking at 1 and 2 year charts and adding ~3 months to the last one.

Unfortunately, I have no positions in the stock and I think you and some others on teslamotorsclub.com have made a pretty healthy profit on it. I don't have time to keep up w/posts there much anymore, esp. on the stock. FWIW, I find it a bit annoying and disturbing that it seems those who post negative things about the stock tended to be branded as trolls and one I saw was banned. There's (not too surprisingly) a lot of people who are really positive on it. Sounds like the a bubble to me. I lived experienced the .com boom and bust. Gotta be careful about the bullishness...

Back to my point about trading platform and figuring out when earnings calls are, I put together this video long ago to illustrate some other stuff on TiVocommunity, for another discussion. Go to http://youtu.be/mknuVfVS13U?t=3m47s" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, skip to ~3:47. Make sure you watch in full-screen at 1080p (via the gear icon) so you can see what's going on. This is Thinkorswim's ThinkDesktop software.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Tesla up again on the official confirmation from BMW that they got nuthin.

 

[redLEAF]

up over 15% this morning ... let's see if can maintain this momentum ... downgraded ??


http://www.bloomberg.com/video/why-...ohnson-Dl_gVobkRkqoAp_H01cUoQ.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

[edatoakrun]

I have not bought or sold any TSLA myself.

But I think the market may be missing a significant financial risk in Tesla's business plan.

The short explanation below covers the GAAP issue, but it disregards the off-the books obligation which Elon himself has taken on to maintain model S resale values, integral to the Lease/buy scheme.

As to the GAAP accounting question, this approach seems entirely reasonable, as Tesla stockholders should not face any risk unless Elon did not make good on his personal guarantee of S resale values.

But this could be a real risk to Tesla's future, IMO, in that the most promising way to keep used S prices as high as the repurchase offer guarantees, is by continuing to increase S prices in the future, and/or reducing supply.

Both of which Tesla has done recently, in the US market.

How well this strategy will work in the short/intermediate run depends on how large the long term market demand for the S is worldwide, and at what price levels.

And in the longer run, if more competitive alternatives to the S show up, for buyers considering both new and used S's (including Tesla's own proposed ~$35k car) this may turn out to be very big problem for Tesla, and its shareholders.

Tesla somewhat unexpectedly earned a modest profit in the first quarter of this year, which naturally raised expectations for the following quarter. And in a letter to shareholders pegged to today's earnings release (PDF), CEO Elon Musk claims victory: "While profits were still modest in absolute terms and not our primary mission, net income increased by 70% from last quarter, driven by record Model S deliveries and a significant improvement in automotive gross margin."

Delve into the report, however, and this turns out to be not quite as simple as it seems. Publicly traded companies are obliged to report earnings in terms of what are known as Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and that 70 percent increase in based on a non-GAAP measure...

to help put people in cars, Tesla rolled out an innovative loan/purchase/buyback scheme that lets people basically lease the cars but with Tesla getting all the money up front...

Non-GAAP account is sometimes very dodgy (see, e.g., Groupon) but in this case it seems entirely defensible to me. Tesla is obviously still a very small company at this point and its future doesn't particularly hinge on Fiscal Year 2013 profitability. The important thing for the company is to keep building out its charging infrastructure, to get better at manufacturing its cars, and ultimately to produce something more affordable than the Model S. The message of their non-GAAP number is that they're essentially on track. More people have Teslas than did a quarter ago, and Tesla has more money than it did a quarter ago. Whether you want to say that's "really" profitable or not, the bottom line is that Tesla has the financial resources to continue ahead with its strategy and that's what really counts.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/08/07/tesla_non_gaap_accounting_profit_or_not.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I thinks it's quite possible for this to be a repeat of the Amazon story:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMZN+Interactive#symbol=amzn;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In the couple of years that followed 1999 it lost over 90% of its value, and the world was ready to stick a fork in it. If you held for the next decade not only did you recover that loss, but went on to 3-4X your investment. Those with the fortitude to buy during the darkest hours have seen over a 40x gain.

Of course such things cannot be predicted, but I see some of the same ingredients here.

 

[GeekEV]

It's also similar in that it's upending the apple cart on how that type of business is done.

 

[evnow]

It's also similar in that it's upending the apple cart on how that type of business is done.

The question is (compared to AMZN or Apple), can TESLA scale out easily given the CAPEX requirements. They did get NUMMI very cheap - what about the rest ? Already Elon is saying they need more batteries for Gen 3 than all the batteries manufactured now in the world.

 

[GeekEV]

The question is (compared to AMZN or Apple), can TESLA scale out easily given the CAPEX requirements. They did get NUMMI very cheap - what about the rest ? Already Elon is saying they need more batteries for Gen 3 than all the batteries manufactured now in the world.

And they just bought 31 acres of land next to the NUMMI factory too. Battery factory anyone?

 

[vrwl]

The question is (compared to AMZN or Apple), can TESLA scale out easily given the CAPEX requirements. They did get NUMMI very cheap - what about the rest ? Already Elon is saying they need more batteries for Gen 3 than all the batteries manufactured now in the world.

And they just bought 31 acres of land next to the NUMMI factory too. Battery factory anyone?

I was just thinking this morning that they need to have their own battery factory. I think it makes a lot of sense if they can't get enough to increase their car production.

 

[GeekEV]

The question is (compared to AMZN or Apple), can TESLA scale out easily given the CAPEX requirements. They did get NUMMI very cheap - what about the rest ? Already Elon is saying they need more batteries for Gen 3 than all the batteries manufactured now in the world.

And they just bought 31 acres of land next to the NUMMI factory too. Battery factory anyone?

I was just thinking this morning that they need to have their own battery factory. I think it makes a lot of sense if they can't get enough to increase their car production.

They also mentioned in the Q2 earnings report that they were supplier constrained - I'm thinking it must be the batteries. Now, whether they produce the batteries themselves or in a joint venture with their current supplier, Panasonic, it would make sense to do the later. But who knows? As long as the entire output of that factory is dedicated to them and they maintain full control over it.