Western USA drought worst in modern era

[smkettner]

great shot of Folsom Lake.

The water draw history might also be interesting. Can't imagine water use is dropping or even constant but is possible.

 

[Weatherman]

Instead of Keystone XL how about a big pipe from Lake Okeechobee to CA. Better than dumping it and wrecking the St Lucie estuary. That water should be good for agriculture and golf courses, since it already has the fertilizer and pesticide mixed in.

When I was in California during the 1975-1977 drought, there was talk of building a pipeline from western Washington down to Southern California. I don't recall what the people in Seattle thought of that idea, but I'm sure they were just thrilled. The alternative proposal was something called the "Peripheral Canal", which was supposed to shunt water around the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta (keep water for the ag and urban areas to the south rather than letting it drain into SF Bay). Not sure what happened to that one.

 

[Weatherman]

More to the point, the human population of California today is over 38,000,000, about 100 times that of the 1860's, when all those poor cattle died...

And this is really the crux of the biscuit... There aren't any more extreme weather events today than there were 150 years ago. There are simply more people and property in the way.

 

[GRA]

Instead of Keystone XL how about a big pipe from Lake Okeechobee to CA. Better than dumping it and wrecking the St Lucie estuary. That water should be good for agriculture and golf courses, since it already has the fertilizer and pesticide mixed in.

When I was in California during the 1975-1977 drought, there was talk of building a pipeline from western Washington down to Southern California. I don't recall what the people in Seattle thought of that idea, but I'm sure they were just thrilled.

I was wondering if I was the only one who remembered the '75-'77 drought - Oh, the joys of "If it's yellow, let it mellow, if it's brown, flush it down," putting filled containers or bricks in plastic bags in toilet tanks (not really necessary now since CA. has mandated increasingly low-water use toilets since then, ditto for shower heads and faucet aerators), showering with a friend, etc. That was followed in '83 and '84 by snowfalls that shattered records - I remember going up to X-C ski north of Donner Summit on Memorial Day weekend 1983, and seeing pickup trucks that had been parked all winter crushed down until their suspensions broke by the weight of 10'-12' of heavy wet snow in their beds, and carports similarly flattened. Backpacking near Evolution Lake (10,850) mid-July, we were cutting steps and hauling our packs up the 10-15 foot high snowbank at the inflow into the lake, and the Muir Trail was buried from there over Muir Pass and much of the way down LeConte Canyon.

The next year we had even heavier snowfall, and we were walking on top of 10 foot deep avalanche debris snow that had snapped off trees lying on top, in the Trinity Alps at around 6,000 feet in _August_.

The alternative proposal was something called the "Peripheral Canal", which was supposed to shunt water around the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta (keep water for the ag and urban areas to the south rather than letting it drain into SF Bay). Not sure what happened to that one.

We killed it in 1982 but unfortunately didn't drive a stake through its heart, and it's back in the form of a proposal for a pair of Peripheral Tunnels - google " peripheral tunnel california ". No messing around this time, the usual suspects have wooden mallets and sharpened stakes ready.

 

[Weatherman]

The North Pacific High has been blocking nearly all precipitation to California for the past twelve months. I have this nightmare fantasy that NOAA will publish a computer simulation showing that it will remain in place whenever the CO2 content of the atmosphere is above about 395 ppm.

Actually, an upper level ridge along the west coast and a trough in the east is a very dynamically stable weather pattern. It has a lot to do with the presence of the mountains along the west coast of North America (not so much to do with CO2 levels). It's a bit difficult to explain unless you're familiar with how Rossby Waves work, but it suffices to say that the atmosphere "likes" the configuration and wants to keep it.

The ridge can be displaced if there's sufficient kinetic energy crossing the Pacific from winter storms moving off the coast of Japan into the Gulf of Alaska. This year, there just doesn't seem to be enough kinetic energy to break down the ridge, so it just sits there.

 

[smkettner]

Looks like Lake Folsom has been lower but it is approaching empty.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/resDetailOrig.action?resid=FOL

Looks like we need to continue no rain through March to be a record.

Overall looks like storage is at 70% and not close to the worst.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/STORAGEW.12

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Every once in a while here in S FL we will have a really dry spring, the lake gets low and there is concern about salt water intrusion into the aquafers. They will announce various defcon levels of water restrictions, which most people proceed to totally ignore, watering lawns and washing cars as much as they like.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

guess this is not a good time to discuss the amount of water needed to effectively go "frack ourselves?"

 

[Stoaty]

guess this is not a good time to discuss the amount of water needed to effectively go "frack ourselves?"

Of course, this is only a couple of months after a bill was passed and signed by governor Brown to regulate (not ban) fracking. Based only on our precarious water situation (not just now, but many years) and expanding population fracking makes no sense in California. Is it possible for a politician to be more short-sighted?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

guess this is not a good time to discuss the amount of water needed to effectively go "frack ourselves?"

Of course, this is only a couple of months after a bill was passed and signed by governor Brown to regulate (not ban) fracking. Based only on our precarious water situation (not just now, but many years) and expanding population fracking makes no sense in California. Is it possible for a politician to be more short-sighted?

i have an ex co-worker making BIG bucks as a water truck driver in MT. he is literally one of hundreds of trucks pumping water out of a lake and driving 300 miles (think of that carbon tax!) to use in the fields. I guess there has been a big fight over the taking of the water and he says the lake level is down quite a bit. last time I talked to him (about a year ago) he said they were paying big bonuses if you got the water by 4 AM. he thinks its because they are under quota and this allows them to sneak the water out...

 

[WetEV]

Climate change or weather?

Or some of both?

Climate change is expected to decrease average snowfall and rainfall in California, but not by anything close to 80%. Paleoclimate wasn't close that arid 3 million years ago, in the last ~400ppm times, it seems to have been somewhat drier, but not exceptionally dry like the past year. And the climate 8,000 years ago, during the Holocene climate optimum period, only slightly cooler than today (lower CO2, but better orbital parameters), was somewhat wetter.

https://www.csub.edu/geology/nsf_osullivan_etal_06.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The climate isn't in equilibrium with the release of CO2 as well. This raises the interesting speculation that the transition between climates might not look anything like the final climate. The best evidence I'm aware of for something like this is the "Younger Dryas" period. This was in the middle of the warming from the peak ice age to the Holocene climate optimum period, a warming of about 4C on a global basis. While the large ice sheets covering the northern hemisphere started melting fast, melt water flowing into the Arctic ocean and then into the North Atlantic seems to have shifted the circulation in a way that allowed sea ice and cold temperatures to return to the British Isles. This cooling of the North Atlantic somewhat reversed the warming, but not enough to stop the melting of the ice sheets.

The Younger Dryas is the period between about 11,500 years ago and 12,800 years ago.

http://ourchangingclimate.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/shakun_marcott_hadcrut4_a1b_eng.png?w=899&h=713" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

More to the point, the human population of California today is over 38,000,000, about 100 times that of the 1860's, when all those poor cattle died...

And this is really the crux of the biscuit... There aren't any more extreme weather events today than there were 150 years ago. There are simply more people and property in the way.

Yes, there are more people and 'high value' property so this is a factor of one examines only the 'death toll' or 'property damage' columns of a spreadsheet. But your assertion that there "aren't any more extreme weather events today than there were 150 years ago" is incorrect.

http://www.wri.org/publication/fact...mate-change-and-recent-extreme-weather-events

Note page 3: Number of Events
http://www.munichreamerica.com/site...cations/ks_severe_weather_na_exec_summary.pdf

 

[Weatherman]

Unless there's an assumption made that the probability of detecting a significant weather event is exactly the same today as it was 150 years ago, it's impossible to conclude that significant weather events are any more likely today than they were, then.

Of course, the probability of detecting a significant weather event today is vastly greater than it was 150 years ago, for obvious reasons.

 

[Zythryn]

Unless there's an assumption made that the probability of detecting a significant weather event is exactly the same today as it was 150 years ago, it's impossible to conclude that significant weather events are any more likely today than they were, then.
...

Yet you felt that you could conclude that there were the same number of significant weather events?

 

[Weatherman]

How about there are fewer today than there were 150 years ago? Transitioning out of the Little Ice Age would have, certainly, made for some interesting weather.


As an atmospheric scientist, I have no doubt that the atmosphere, as a whole, is warmer today than it was 30 years ago. But to attribute every unusual cold snap, heat wave, drought, flood, earthquake, tsunami, and on, and on, and on, to the increase in global mean temperature is pretty silly.

The simplest way to think about a warming atmosphere is that winters will get shorter and summers will get longer. Beyond that, it's all noise.

 

[WetEV]

The simplest way to think about a warming atmosphere is that winters will get shorter and summers will get longer. Beyond that, it's all noise.

My approach to climate is from geologic history. The transition between peak ice age and end of ice age isn't just the length of summer and winter.

For example, the Sahara.

http://www.livescience.com/4180-sahara-desert-lush-populated.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Or Lake Bonneville.

http://geology.utah.gov/utahgeo/gsl/flash/lb_flash.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[klapauzius]

How about there are fewer today than there were 150 years ago? Transitioning out of the Little Ice Age would have, certainly, made for some interesting weather.


As an atmospheric scientist, I have no doubt that the atmosphere, as a whole, is warmer today than it was 30 years ago. But to attribute every unusual cold snap, heat wave, drought, flood, earthquake, tsunami, and on, and on, and on, to the increase in global mean temperature is pretty silly.

The simplest way to think about a warming atmosphere is that winters will get shorter and summers will get longer. Beyond that, it's all noise.

Isnt that simplifying things too much? What about long term changes in weather patters with respect to geography? Places getting warmer or wetter or dryer than they used to be, warmer oceans fueling more hurricanes, droughts, floods, etc.?

I think if a warming atmosphere merely meant longer summers and shorter winters ( I assume you define that by temperatures), most people would agreed that this would be a great thing.

 

[Weatherman]

You would need to ask yourself, what would having a longer summer and shorter winter mean? It would might mean many different things, depending on where you are (some good and some bad).

Some examples...

1) As a South Florida resident, it wouldn't mean much. Summers are already long and wet. It might reduce the risk of frost during the winter, but wouldn't eliminate it.

2) As a Texas, Oklahoma or Kansas resident, it could mean a longer and hotter dry stretch during the summer. They, typically, have a peak in precipitation during the spring and fall. A longer gap between these two "wet" seasons could add stress to crops, livestock and water supplies.

3) As a California resident, a shorter winter and longer summer would be a bad thing. Nearly all precipitation falls during the winter months. A shorter winter might mean less total annual rainfall, or much greater variability in rainfall from year to year (since the only one or two storms could mean the difference between and above normal rainfall year and a below normal rainfall year), and reduced snowpack. It would require much better management of the already limited water available.

4) However, as a resident of North Dakota, a shorter winter and longer summer might be a very good thing. More rainfall and a longer growing season. Might have to use more pesticides, as bugs like warmer weather, too.

 

[AndyH]

'Weatherman' - I'll take my cues on the behavior of the atmosphere from the real scientists studying it. I'll also seek folks tracking extreme events for that bit of info. Thanks anyway.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xugAC7XGosM[/youtube]

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

'Weatherman' - I'll take my cues on the behavior of the atmosphere from the real scientists studying it. I'll also seek folks tracking extreme events for that bit of info. Thanks anyway.

And we look forward to hearing from them, just as soon as they get back from being rescued from the ice :lol: