lorenfb said:
1. The problem with Tesla's market is that the majority of their sales are from the U.S. and the majority
of that is on the west coast in CA. Their ROW sales have been declining.
2. And how does the logic conclude that the Mode 3 (if produced) won't cannibalize (Osborne Effect) future
sales of the Model S?
3. Have you overlooked the overall marginal acceptance rate of a BEV for the typical consumer based on
his perceived vehicle preferences? Could that have an effect on european manufacturer's reluctance to fully
participate in the BEV market at this time? Besides, the european BEV acceptance rate is even lower
in europe, notwithstanding Norway previously.
1. There are some reasons for where Tesla currently sells their vehicles in the United States. States that are part of CARB have ZEV credits that must be used by car companies in order to sell in that state. If a vehicle manufacturer doesn't have enough credits such as Mercedes, they typically buy them from another car company, such as from Tesla. These credits run from $500-1000, but those credits can only be earned on vehicles sold in CARB states. This is why the Chevy Spark is only available in CARB states, and those of us in the middle of the country be damned. So, Tesla scores probably an extra $750 or so on every car sold over there versus in Texas.
2. For the same reason people I have tried to convince to drive a more "affordable" car with the same feature set as whatever Mercedes they are looking at get a Mercedes instead of a well equipped Subaru. It's those fine luxury details, the super plush leather seats, the heated windshield wiper spray, the bidet... (ok, no on the last one, but you get the point.) That combined with the price point is actually a goal for some people, amazingly enough. They have to buy the best, whatever it is. These are the people who are getting 3 year leases on the top of the line Tesla Model S. They don't care about residual value or such, all they care about is having the latest and greatest. I'm sure you know them, they get a new iPhone every year?
3. It is possible that I've overlooked the marginal acceptance rate of a BEV for the typical consumer. But what we're talking about is Mercedes saying they were going to "overtake Tesla as the top premium electric car maker in less than 10 years..." That means they must have either a more compelling product or brand image than Tesla for BEVs. I don't think they can do that. Telsa is the APPLE of BEVs. Sure, there are people who are in love with their Samsung explody phones, and Samsung is the #1 competitor to Apple, but they don't have the brand image. Tesla has carefully cultivated this brand image, and Elon will trot out some amazing safety numbers for the fully autonomous autopilot that Mercedes won't be able to match until a few years down the road. Data is king, and Tesla is capturing gobs of it from their cars.
3.a. The EU is going to mandate the transition away from ICE vehicles before the US will ever consider such an action, so the market will be absolutely ripe. Tesla already has the charging infrastructure all over the EU. I think the biggest challenge Tesla will face, especially in markets like Germany will be nationalism. The Germans are quite proud of their cars, but I think other EU countries will be more willing.
Disclaimers: I don't own a Tesla, I do own Tesla stock. (Not much.)
