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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:22 am

Sounds like Tesla needs your help! I'm not sure I get your comments about making clams to know people unless you suggest I'm making that up. The system is not the same since it has a new processor, is using new sensors, and many more cameras with a new way of processing the data that is using far more camera centric vs sensors. This is clearly a major redesign in that respect. In addition if Tesla wants to write new cord or needs to for any reason that surely is their choice.

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:54 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:

Nice prototype, but the many unfinished features and fact that TSLA doesn't even trust its own employees with autopilot (~51 minutes in) yet says a lot about how much development is probably left to do before production begins.

The new AP system is a ground up design because of new hardware. It is running on the newer model S vehicles so I don't think that is a major concern.

If autopilot and the other features shown in video to still be non-functional ~four months after beginning "production" of model 3s are not major concerns to TSLA management, then both model 3 depositors and TSLA investors should have their own major concerns.
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:16 am

EVDRIVER wrote:Sounds like Tesla needs your help! I'm not sure I get your comments about making clams to know people unless you suggest I'm making that up. The system is not the same since it has a new processor, is using new sensors, and many more cameras with a new way of processing the data that is using far more camera centric vs sensors. This is clearly a major redesign in that respect. In addition if Tesla wants to write new cord or needs to for any reason that surely is their choice.


OK, then say they've augmented the system after switching to the Nvidia processor, that's hardly "a ground up design".

hyperionmark
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:25 am

lorenfb wrote:
hyperionmark wrote:And should get even a little better once we get a dual motor version. What kind of efficiency gains did we see in the Model S going from single motor to dual motor?


Really? And where are the numbers for the Model S with that change? Probably significant (10-15% - based on comment), right?
That single S induction motor was really that inefficient (NOT)?

Remember, the Model 3 uses a PM which gained a little efficiency over the Model S with an induction motor.

Here is an article about the efficiency gains.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/109 ... ey-do-that

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:58 am

lorenfb wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Sounds like Tesla needs your help! I'm not sure I get your comments about making clams to know people unless you suggest I'm making that up. The system is not the same since it has a new processor, is using new sensors, and many more cameras with a new way of processing the data that is using far more camera centric vs sensors. This is clearly a major redesign in that respect. In addition if Tesla wants to write new cord or needs to for any reason that surely is their choice.


OK, then say they've augmented the system after switching to the Nvidia processor, that's hardly "a ground up design".



New brain , new hardware, new software. Augmented? It's not as though they added a few sensors they changed the system dramatically. The 3 is not an augmented version of the S either. New body, new motor design, etc. Yes they use much of the S software but much of it is new on the AP side. The other stuff is very similar and augmented.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:07 pm

hyperionmark wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
hyperionmark wrote:And should get even a little better once we get a dual motor version. What kind of efficiency gains did we see in the Model S going from single motor to dual motor?


Really? And where are the numbers for the Model S with that change? Probably significant (10-15% - based on comment), right?
That single S induction motor was really that inefficient (NOT)?

Remember, the Model 3 uses a PM which gained a little efficiency over the Model S with an induction motor.

Here is an article about the efficiency gains.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/109 ... ey-do-that



Unless a P version of the 3 comes with a larger motor then I expect the D version of the 3 to have the same existing motors front and back. The existing Tesla 3 motor is pushed pretty hard and they blew many in testing to get the performance they wanted. A "P" version may be only available in a D package because of this and the PM motor design. So a P version of the 3 may have 0-6 times of the older D model S in the low 4 sec range. This keeps it away from the Model S P versions. Etc...

arnis
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:58 pm

I do not expect performance small motor (one that will fit to 3 and Y) will actually be something really new.
This requires extra investment and not a lot of return. And possible warranty problems later on.
I do expect RWD M3 SR, RWD M3 LR (both available now) and AWD M3 SR plus AWD M3 LR later.
All models likely will have same motor/inverter front and back (different reduction gear and likely different exterior look).
Though maybe, MAYBE, there will be more cooling power or more expensive inverter components.


These four will all give different accelerations. So 4 performance levels, AWD Long Range will be the fastest.
AWD M3 LR is already expensive and extremely fast for this class. Minimum price for that one will be 50 000 $,
far from optimal. And add some expected Premium package, color, and Enhanced AP, this goes up to 61 000 $.
There is not a lot of more juice to suck from 80kWh of cells. Which are thicker (less capable in terms of thermal load).
AWD M3 LR could already use at least 384kW of power with today's small motors.
Compared to Model S battery packs, old 70kWh pack could output 245kW, new 90 pack (with ludicrous fuse) 397kW.
So no. Model 3 will not have 500kW of power. Battery is the limit with AWD M3 LR (~80kWh).
Also, in addition to battery, Model 3 has much smaller cooling capacity. Only one modest aperture between fog lights.

I trademark two additional Model 3 variant names, M3D and M3P - as in Dual motor and Performance :lol:
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:26 pm

hyperionmark wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
hyperionmark wrote:And should get even a little better once we get a dual motor version. What kind of efficiency gains did we see in the Model S going from single motor to dual motor?


Really? And where are the numbers for the Model S with that change? Probably significant (10-15% - based on comment), right?
That single S induction motor was really that inefficient (NOT)?

Remember, the Model 3 uses a PM which gained a little efficiency over the Model S with an induction motor.

Here is an article about the efficiency gains.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/109 ... ey-do-that


From the reference:
In the standard 85-kWh Model S that most buyers will likely choose, Tesla's new AWD system boosts the range by anywhere from 4 to 19 percent--depending on which of Tesla's contradictory numbers you believe.


Yes, there is an optimum induction motor RPM, and related vehicle speed, which can be somewhat tweaked using two motors,
but it's not all that significant ("contradictory numbers") at all vehicle speeds.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:39 pm

arnis wrote:I do not expect performance small motor (one that will fit to 3 and Y) will actually be something really new.
This requires extra investment and not a lot of return. And possible warranty problems later on.
I do expect RWD M3 SR, RWD M3 LR (both available now) and AWD M3 SR plus AWD M3 LR later.
All models likely will have same motor/inverter front and back (different reduction gear and likely different exterior look).
Though maybe, MAYBE, there will be more cooling power or more expensive inverter components.


These four will all give different accelerations. So 4 performance levels, AWD Long Range will be the fastest.
AWD M3 LR is already expensive and extremely fast for this class. Minimum price for that one will be 50 000 $,
far from optimal. And add some expected Premium package, color, and Enhanced AP, this goes up to 61 000 $.
There is not a lot of more juice to suck from 80kWh of cells. Which are thicker (less capable in terms of thermal load).
AWD M3 LR could already use at least 384kW of power with today's small motors.
Compared to Model S battery packs, old 70kWh pack could output 245kW, new 90 pack (with ludicrous fuse) 397kW.
So no. Model 3 will not have 500kW of power. Battery is the limit with AWD M3 LR (~80kWh).
Also, in addition to battery, Model 3 has much smaller cooling capacity. Only one modest aperture between fog lights.

I trademark two additional Model 3 variant names, M3D and M3P - as in Dual motor and Performance :lol:



The existing motor may have some room but they had pushed them pretty far because of the weigh of the car. They may be some wiggle room but don't expect any to best an S because of market segmentation until the new S is released.

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:55 am

edatoakrun wrote:If autopilot and the other features shown in video to still be non-functional ~four months after beginning "production" of model 3s are not major concerns to TSLA management, then both model 3 depositors and TSLA investors should have their own major concerns.


Lack of autopilot might be a concern to some. It's not to me. As much as I would eventually like to get it, I'm not planning on buying it until it has more autonomous capability anyway (yes, I realize it will cost me more at that point in time).

As for the "other" features, can you be more specific? All I really saw were things like Bluetooth streaming (which is available now), FM/XM/AM radio, and maybe something to do with the windshield wipers.

Do these rise to the level of MAJOR concerns for shareholders and depositors? Sounds like a bit of hyperbole for me, given that we know these features have been rolling out since that video was filmed (not sure exactly when it was filmed, but they did hold it for some reason--they said they were going to hold it all the way until non-Tesla configurator opened it up, but I think they realized it was a YouTube gold mine). Like I said, you may have a point with autopilot (which has also been enabled on the Model 3 at this time), but it should come as no surprise to anyone what the current state of Tesla AP is.

I sure do hope that a fair comparison is drawn between this and the whole Nissan 2G TCU debacle, which by the way almost a full year after they (at the last minute) rushed out a 3G solution to the 2G sunset at the end of 2016 that to this day still runs down owners' 12V batteries? Should Nissan shareholders consider this a major concern?
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