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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:14 am

Zythryn wrote:I have always found the wait after the VIN assignment is the toughest part :shock:


Well then Tesla is making that easier on people by not releasing the VIN until 7 days prior to the delivery, so I guess there is that! :)
...Lance

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Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:50 am

Zythryn wrote:I have always found the wait after the VIN assignment is the toughest part :shock:


+1, my VIN got assigned then a delivery was scheduled for 8 days later. LONGEST 8 days EVER! Should've watched the grass grow. :p
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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:37 pm

lpickup wrote:...
edatoakrun wrote:Could any other action by Musk more dramatically illustrate just how vital the FTC subsidies are to TSLA's continued existence, and what a liar he has been over the years when he has repeatedly said that TSLA doesn't depend on them?


It's not that Tesla depends on the tax credit. The Model 3 will do just fine with or without the credit, which by the way doesn't even apply to a huge number of reservation holders world wide. It's about the competitive position vis a vis other automakers. Nobody, and probably not even Musk, would deny that Tesla is in a better position to compete with the full credit in place.

edatoakrun wrote:Since intentionally delaying sales this quarter (to the degree you suggest) also results a contrived deferment of about half a billion dollars of revenue until the long-promised-to-be-profitable next quarter, shareholders (not to mention the SEC) just might find some reason to object to this bizzare behavior...


See my above comment. Smart investors will not put significant weight in an arbitrary calendar date when shown evidence that the sales were merely shifted and will be realized within a month.

At this point, I'm beginning to think you are pulling my leg...

Anyway, if BB is correct in their latest guesses (they have been way off before) of model 3 production rates, there doesn't look to be much effort required (and certainly no need to withhold "9,000" or "12,000" finished cars from customers) for TSLA to fall short of 200 k USA deliveries this quarter:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Not much real news in the article below, but the summary of TSLA production history should make any rational observer skeptical of claims of rapid increases in sustained production rates are imminent, whether this month or next.

Tesla Veterans Reveal Fires, Accidents, and Delays Inside Elon Musk’s Company

Their sleek, powerful electric cars are a taste of the future, but the company struggles when it comes to actually building them.


Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s attacks against “sanctimonious journalists” and “divisive” unions have captured the public’s attention in recent weeks, but Musk has bigger problems on his hands: His automaker has struggled to deliver on the promise of a mass-market fully electric car, the Model 3 sedan.

When Musk delivered the first Model 3s last year, he jokingly warned customers and employees that the firm would be entering “production hell.”

But according to several former Tesla insiders, it’s not a joke.

Cars built by hand, fires that turned a paint sprayer into a flamethrower, rampant quality problems, and a bloated workforce plague the factory, the insiders say. That’s on top of an injury rate that Reveal News reports is higher than the industry average, with shocking examples. These interconnected symptoms of Tesla’s “production hell” raise questions about the company’s entire approach to manufacturing, which diverges significantly from the auto industry’s practices that have been honed over decades.

The sources requested anonymity to speak because of Tesla’s history of trying to catch leakers, including once reportedly leaving a “fingerprint” in memos to find who divulged them to the press.

Throughout its history Tesla has been successful in convincing Wall Street that it is more technology company than auto manufacturer and is worth more than Ford. Its software startup-style culture has produced stunning designs and cutting-edge in-car technologies that delight consumers.

But ultimately Tesla’s business is to make cars—and a lot of them. Tesla said it plans to make as many as 1 million Model 3s per year by the end of the decade. Yet it has already fallen behind its targets for Model 3 production. Stumbling on the Model 3 from practically day one, Tesla’s frantic attempts to meet Musk’s ambitious production targets are exacting a heavy cost on its people, products, and culture...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/tesla-vet ... ks-company
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dgpcolorado
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:07 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:Over 70MPH usually means just making up that gained time by waiting just as long at an SC, of course unless it's the last leg home. I stopped using trip planners as the car is so accurate, they are good to review general times for very long multi-state trips.
I do the same. The car navigation and energy projection is very reliable now and easy to use. Occasionally use a trip planner to scope out possible trips but not when actually making the trip.
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Zythryn
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:25 pm

Tweet from Tesla today showing U.S. market share of the Model 3 compared to other mid sized luxury cars.

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1004118655230078977?s=21

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Nubo
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:52 pm

SageBrush wrote:I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.


Enjoy. I don't suffer range anxiety, but "range envy", yeah that's a thing. :P
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:55 am

Zythryn wrote:Tweet from Tesla today showing U.S. market share of the Model 3 compared to other mid sized luxury cars.
I suppose this is the clearest statement from Tesla which admits that they have not delivered on the third leg of Elon Musk's master plan:
Elon Musk on August 2, 2006 wrote:So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
(Bolding in original. Italics are mine.)

The Tesla Model 3 will need to sustain sales in the US on the order of 30,000 units/month in order to compete with the top-selling affordable cars here. To complete with the top-selling vehicle in the U.S. market, which happens to be priced at a similar level to the Model 3, they will need to sell about 80,000 units/month.

And I have to question if the Model 3 is really being manufactured using money that was generated by sales of the Models S and X. In reality, it is being paid for by debt, not cash.
RegGuheert
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SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:23 am

Nubo wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I ordered my Model 3 two weeks ago;
VIN supplied yesterday;
Car pickup 8 days from today.


Enjoy. I don't suffer range anxiety, but "range envy", yeah that's a thing. :P

I know exactly what you mean.
As a two car family my LEAF is relegated to the chores it can handle so no anxiety. But the Model 3 will go anywhere, without any fuss.

My first drive is from Denver to home, about a 350 mile trip. I'm going to stop for a 15 minute charge en-route about halfway home for a break and some range insurance. That's it -- end of fueling story. And it is actually overstated, since I just want to try out the SuperCharger. We are staying in Gunnison overnight for some early AM hiking in the canyon before heading home. There is an EVSE across the street from the hotel I can use for free if I preferred. No other charging stops would be needed and I would arrive home with about 200 miles of range.

Of course, as an EV tripping newbie I asked myself what if I skipped the Supercharger AND the Gunnison site was down ? No problem, Telluride has an 80 Amp L2 EVSE I can draw 48 Amps from. That would add about an hour to my journey (easily soaked up by some food and an enjoyable and free gondola ride) and I consider it less likely than a flat tyre.
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scottf200
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:45 am

Excellent outline of the 2018_annual_shareholder_meeting_notes

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8ovost/2018_annual_shareholder_meeting_notes/
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scottf200
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:00 am

Zythryn wrote:Tweet from Tesla today showing U.S. market share of the Model 3 compared to other mid sized luxury cars.

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1004118655230078977?s=21

Aside: My browser/extentions are supressing your pbs.twimg image.

It seems all the manufacturers are fairly steady except BMW. Them and Tesla are going opposite directions. There must be an explanation. Are there really that many BMW drivers changing their alliance?

Image
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'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

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