EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 3:23 am

SageBrush wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:and Tesla has no apparent plans to actually build the $35k

BS.
Production is slated for late 2018

Your entire argument about being forced to spend $60k USD to obtain a Model 3 in the first half of 2018 is trollish garbage.
The actual minimum was the car with premium interior and the larger battery:
35K + 5K + 9k = $49k USD
I actually wrote a post out in response to yours, but starting your post with "BS" and ending with "trollish garbage" I concluded you aren't worth the time. I'll engage with you again if you behave better.

EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 3:27 am

dgpcolorado wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:This is also why I've given up on owning a model 3. I put a reservation in last year, but I am not one to be upsold, and Tesla has no apparent plans to actually build the $35k, certainly it will never be built within the federal credit timeframe (maybe for a tiny, tiny selection of people it will be).
The tax credit will last through at least Q3 2019 — and likely Q4 2019. It may well be that the 35k version won't be available with the full tax credit but I expect that it will be available with the half and quarter tax credit for some. If that isn't good enough, so be it. Since I don't qualify for the tax credit, being much too low income, I can't use it anyway.

Regardless, if Tesla can sell all the cars it can make for the next year or two, that's a good thing in my — admittedly biased — view. Others here disagree, as we've seen.
Most likely the $7500 is gone end of this year, with few if any $35k on the road. With, as far as I know, 100% of reservation holders showing an "early 2019" at the latest for the $35k, it's obvious Tesla is chunking them all together, which is an arbitrary estimate. First half 2019 the credit will be $3750, but I expect production for the $35k variant to still be exceptionally low because primarily Tesla can't make much (or any?) money on that one. And as long as demand exists for the optioned models Tesla will do its very best to produce as damn few of the $35k as possible. How do I know that? Because there isn't a single one available now even though it would be the cheapest and easiest variation to produce.

As pointed out above, even the most ardent tesla supporters now seem to agree that Tesla badly needs the money and is selling expensive cars to maximize money just to keep its head above water.

EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 3:30 am

lorenfb wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/417307 ... ction?dr=1

Yes, he's a short seller (so what), i.e. he makes some good points relative to your comments.
I became of the belief recently, watching Tesla kick the can down the road on the $35k, that it will produce a few of them at the very most to "prove the haters wrong" and then wrap it up entirely. I don't believe we'll ever see a point at which Tesla is cranking out thousands of these and getting one is as simple as going to Tesla.com today and ordering a model S for delivery in 4-6 weeks.

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 5:56 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:...I don't believe we'll ever see a point at which Tesla is cranking out thousands of these and getting one is as simple as going to Tesla.com today and ordering a model S for delivery in 4-6 weeks.

Nonsense!

Any day now it will be just as easy to buy a $35k model 3, as it is today to buy yourself a new model S for "around $50,000"...

DEC 20, 2011 @ 07:14 PM

Tesla Comes Through With Sub-$50,000 Model S, Mostly

Tesla today announced official pricing for its four-door electric sedan: $49,900 for a base Model S after a $7,500 federal tax credit.

The announcement comes after months of Tesla founder Elon Musk promising to deliver his first four-door electric car for around $50,000...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahelli ... 842a4965e8
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EVDRIVER
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 6:25 am

They can easily cut the 3 cost way down for anyone that does not want AP, if they chose they could take cameras, motors, controllers, redundant wiring and any autonomous gear off the car for a HUGE cost cut. My guess is they won't do that so don't forget the cost is absorbed over all cars for those that do not activate it. Nothing like quoting old articles to sound even ore like a broken record. Reality is if they get production up to where it needs to be people will get the base cars in time just not the handful of bitter people here that won't get the credit in time and will be driving their LEAF longer.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 6:39 am

EVDRIVER wrote:They can easily cut the 3 cost way down...

But It (TSLA) probably won't sell many cars without all the unnecessary high-margin equipment and options, as long as it can find enough willing buyers to pay almost twice the promised "$35k" price.

And that is the real question that will determine TSLA's short-term viability.

It is on schedule to run out of cash within a year, unless it can build and sell a few hundred thousand model 3's for close to $60k, on average.

Assuming it can build that many model 3s are there that many suckers out there?
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 6:52 am

edatoakrun wrote:Any day now it will be just as easy to buy a $35k model 3, as it is today to buy yourself a new model S for "around $50,000"...

DEC 20, 2011 @ 07:14 PM

Tesla today announced official pricing for its four-door electric sedan: $49,900 for a base Model S after a $7,500 federal tax credit.
Tesla sold S40s (software-limited S60s) at that price to those who placed deposits at that price.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 7:07 am

jlv wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Any day now it will be just as easy to buy a $35k model 3, as it is today to buy yourself a new model S for "around $50,000"...

DEC 20, 2011 @ 07:14 PM

Tesla today announced official pricing for its four-door electric sedan: $49,900 for a base Model S after a $7,500 federal tax credit.
Tesla sold S40s (software-limited S60s) at that price to those who placed deposits at that price.

And then cancelled that option, and has subsequently raised the base price several times, to the point where the minimum price of one of these dinosaurs today is $74,500.

Do you expect that the starting price of a model 3 will be ~$50,000, in 2025, when it is also an obsolete ~seven-year-old design?
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 7:22 am

lorenfb wrote:Given the above historical record, one would most likely question the likelihood of Tesla's future profitability even if Tesla
only delivered M3s at ASPs greater than $50K.


Suppose T esla's gross margin on M3s is $5k next quarter. Suppose production gets to 5k per week, or 65k per quarter. That is $325M, about a third of last quarter's loss. Adds another quarter to T esla's life expectancy. If T esla can boost production to 10k a week, and expand gross margin to $7.5k, T esla would be near break even. Or some other combination of production increases, gross margin increases and/or other cost reductions. At break even, T esla would be positioned to continue to grow, or to slow growth and increase profits.

Likelihood of profit? Hard to say. T esla to survive needs to get to at least close to break even. The growth story with little profit works to attract investment(see A mazon), but at some point the T esla needs to make at least small GAAP profits. Not a sure thing, and not zero chance.

I'm neutral on T esla the stock. It is a high risk bet, and right now the dice are rolling.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Tue May 15, 2018 7:27 am

edatoakrun wrote:And then cancelled that option, and has subsequently raised the base price several times, to the point where the minimum price of one of these dinosaurs today is $74,500.


And so what? If you can fill a factory selling higher profit margin cars at that price point, why would you sell a lower profit margin car and get less return on your investment (or in the case of Tesla, have less cash to fuel your next iteration of growth?) There is not a factory in the world that wouldn't fill up their lines with higher profit margin goods. If Tesla was doing what you suggested and sold their base model first, THAT would be the colossal business mistake that I think you and Loren are hoping for. It took Nissan 2 years to release their LEAF S trim...I wonder why?

Now sure, we do have Elon/Tesla's goal of creating a true mainstream EV. Are they there yet? For sure not, and it's taking a lot longer than any of us want. There have been significant challenges, some unforeseen, but keep in mind it's taken automakers quite a lot longer than what Tesla has taken to get to the economies of scale to allow for building a true entry-level vehicle. Have they stopped moving in that direction? No. Will they ever get there? Questionable. They seem to have a lot of projects on their plate which aren't going to be cheap to fund, so maybe the best we can hope for for the short term is that put enough force on the market to push automakers in that direction, and I already see evidence that they've done so with the new LEAF creating a 150 mile class offering.

You keep saying that Tesla hasn't produced a $35K vehicle (although I can't really recall WHY that is important to you, other than that it's a milestone that Tesla hasn't achieved that you can point to as evidence of Tesla's impending doom). But you also say that they never will, which I think will most likely turn out to be false. They will produce one, if only because the cost of the battery will fall enough to make it very doable.
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