lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:12 pm

palmermd wrote:I've been driving past my local Chevrolet dealership for years, and the lot is always completely full. It must be because they are not selling any cars. Otherwise the lot would be empty by now. I have no idea how they are still in business.


No OEM automotive company selling vehicles in the U.S. has > 200K reservations (per Elon Musk) as does Tesla for the M3 and
has excess inventory! Furthermore, none of those OEMs is borderline profitable with cash flow problems.
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palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:35 pm

lorenfb wrote:
palmermd wrote:I've been driving past my local Chevrolet dealership for years, and the lot is always completely full. It must be because they are not selling any cars. Otherwise the lot would be empty by now. I have no idea how they are still in business.


No OEM automotive company selling vehicles in the U.S. has > 200K reservations (per Elon Musk) as does Tesla for the M3 and
has excess inventory! Furthermore, none of those OEMs is borderline profitable with cash flow problems.


How do you know the turnover rate of the cars in the parking lot? I just keep hearing about a full parking lot with Model 3. They all look alike, so how do you know how long they are sitting there. If they turnover every few days, then having cars on a lot staging for delivery is not a problem other than it means that they can't deliver fast enough in the short term. It does not necessarily mean that they are not selling and the cars are piling up from lack of sales. If the number is not growing then they did finally get deliveries matching production, and now they just need to get deliveries to exceed it to reduce the numbers in the staging area.

You are going to have to show me some evidence of cars sitting for long periods and not selling, and everything I've heard is that they are selling, and new ones are coming in just as fast. Its a problem the other OEM's wish they had.

What the other OEM's do have is a very well organized way of shipping and delivering cars, and later servicing them. This I can agree with...Tesla has some work to do in order to get this better organized.
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:26 pm

palmermd wrote:You are going to have to show me some evidence of cars sitting for long periods and not selling, and everything I've heard is that they are selling, and new ones are coming in just as fast. Its a problem the other OEM's wish they had.


Take a drive today from Hermosa Beach along Vista Del Mar north to Culver Blvd just past the Marine Freeway (90). You'll see all the M3s in the
lot next to (east of) the building with satellites on the roof, at most for you a 15 minute drive. Those M3s have been there for over a month.
Then if you have some spare time, just go back a few blocks to Alda Rd where the Tesla distribution center is and consider helping Tesla by
buying a M3, which you could easily take delivery of today and help the Tesla Balance Sheet (+ cash - inventory). In Q3 & Q4 of 2018, Tesla
never had more than a few M3s anywhere around that distribution center that weren't being delivered. Even the MNL moderator agrees
to there being excess inventory, see up-thread.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:25 am

palmermd wrote:You are going to have to show me some evidence of cars sitting for long periods and not selling, and everything I've heard is that they are selling, and new ones are coming in just as fast. Its a problem the other OEM's wish they had.

FWIW, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/tesla-s ... -site.html made me aware of https://tslaq.org/.

Unfortunately, since some of the contributors and/or the site have a motive, it's hard to know how reliable/authentic the field reports are and how many are just excess inventory vs. cars destined for a buyer/lessee already lined up.

I haven't gone thru them all for for some, looking at the original Twitter thread is interesting. Example https://tslaq.org/site-45-p4/ and a few others point to https://twitter.com/cppinvest/status/10 ... 7811156992.

https://tslaq.org/site-10-p4/ points to a previous post at https://tslaq.org/site-10-p3/. The location in the pic is right. It's probably around the closed Sears at https://www.google.com/maps/@47.6305157 ... 384!8i8192. I'm familiar with that area as I lived in that part of WA for many years.

The snow-covered ones in Illinois might be of interest.

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golfcart
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:19 am

palmermd wrote:
You are going to have to show me some evidence of cars sitting for long periods and not selling, and everything I've heard is that they are selling, and new ones are coming in just as fast. Its a problem the other OEM's wish they had.



I can only speak anecdotally but when I went to the Richmond, VA Tesla dealer a couple of weeks ago they were very clear that there were numerous TM3 on the lot and ready to be delivered that day at various trim levels. That says to me excess stock. There were at least 20 to 30 sitting there at the dealer ready to go to anyone that wanted them. They've also dropped the base price twice in the last couple of months which they would not do if they were still flying off the shelves.

I agree that any other car brand will have the same issue, look at how many 2018 Leaf are still on the lot. I think folks are just arguing that Tesla may have reached an inflection point where the initial demand for the higher end models has been satisfied and many of the remaining reservation holders and potential customers are waiting for a cheaper variant of the TM3... which may or may not get made anytime soon. So, at least for the U.S. market, you probably won't see sales numbers like you saw in 2018 for 2019. Time will tell...
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