edatoakrun
Posts: 4717
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:53 pm

Some phrases auto-translate more clearly than others, in this story about the German engineering firm, apparently acquired by TSLA in order to provide a functioning rescue force that could be rapidly airlifted to the gigafactory site.

Rescue from the Eifel Experts from Prüm are to bring production to work at Tesla

Actually, it is engineers and electrical engineers that the medium-sized company Tesla Grohmann Automation from Prüm in the Eifel regularly sends to the Nevada desert. There they are to help in the production of battery cells in the Gigafactory of Tesla and Panasonic. Meanwhile, the employees also feel a bit like firefighters, because the tree literally burns in the desert near the city of Reno.

The production of the middle-class model 3 does not get going properly...

On-site staff even speak of a "heap of rubble". Among other things, a team of Grohmann from Prüm is now working under pressure to get the lines up and running. Tesla founder Elon Musk had bought the mid-sized company from the Eifel last year for around 150 million euros. The owner-managed company founded in 1983...

https://www.rundschau-online.de/wirtsch ... +Rundschau
no condition is permanent

User avatar
LTLFTcomposite
Posts: 4341
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:06 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Dec 2011
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Boca Raton FL

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:13 pm

That heap of rubble could be a heap of trouble :D
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue

SageBrush
Posts: 1429
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:23 pm

In the financial Q3 report given the other day, Elon mentioned that the sub-par code they found and have almost finished rewriting with Tesla people is estimated at 30 engineer-years worth ... in a matter of a month or two. Even if Elon is being generous in his estimate of the work, that is insane.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5589
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:14 pm

SageBrush wrote:In the financial Q3 report given the other day, Elon mentioned that the sub-par code they found and have almost finished rewriting with Tesla people is estimated at 30 engineer-years worth ... in a matter of a month or two. Even if Elon is being generous in his estimate of the work, that is insane.
That sounds like the best example of a Mythical Man-Month that one could ever want.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

lorenfb
Posts: 1391
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:30 pm

Nubo wrote:
lorenfb wrote:The reality is that most in the automotive industry don't consider Tesla's "technology and intellectual property" all that significant.


Nubo wrote:The batteries are key. If Tesla gets the gigafactory (and future gigafactories) up to volume production, "most in the automotive industry" won't be able to touch Tesla's battery prices.


Really, that's a big "If"? Have you forgotten that there're other sources for batteries, e.g. LG? And Tesla needs battery volume internally
to 'push' the prices down. Besides, there's only so much price reduction that can be achieved via volume. If they don't get that from
M3 and it fails to generate a positive cash flow, Tesla won't be a factor in batteries.

Nubo wrote:In fact they'll be buying from Tesla. And as far as a practical charging network, so far Tesla stands absolutely alone in the US market. And future charging stations at even higher power levels are going to require significant on-site storage capacity. Batteries again, even if some other manufacturers ever see the light regarding infrastructure, or 3rd party charging becomes profitable they'll be buying components from Tesla.


Yes, and more Elon hyperbole!

User avatar
Nubo
Posts: 4487
Joined: Fri May 28, 2010 11:01 am
Delivery Date: 31 Oct 2014
Location: Vallejo, CA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:15 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Nubo wrote:
lorenfb wrote:The reality is that most in the automotive industry don't consider Tesla's "technology and intellectual property" all that significant.


Nubo wrote:The batteries are key. If Tesla gets the gigafactory (and future gigafactories) up to volume production, "most in the automotive industry" won't be able to touch Tesla's battery prices.


Really, that's a big "If"? Have you forgotten that there're other sources for batteries, e.g. LG?


No. But I doubt LG provide their batteries to carmakers at cost.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

lorenfb
Posts: 1391
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:21 pm

Nubo wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
Nubo wrote:


Nubo wrote:The batteries are key. If Tesla gets the gigafactory (and future gigafactories) up to volume production, "most in the automotive industry" won't be able to touch Tesla's battery prices.


Really, that's a big "If"? Have you forgotten that there're other sources for batteries, e.g. LG?


No. But I doubt LG provide their batteries to carmakers at cost.


That assumes that Tesla's battery process would include sourcing & starting with raw materials and doesn't rely on a battery supplier,
e.g. Panasonic, to do basic cell production. The former would require a huge up-front investment which wouldn't be practical
until late 2020 given Tesla's reality production plans.

edatoakrun
Posts: 4717
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:21 pm

The giga-disaster in the desert continues...

In all likelihood this massive factory in a terrible location designed to produce obsolete cells at above-market cost that no vehicle manufacture expect TSLA will ever use, will turn out to be one of TSLA's largest liabilities, after the forensic auditors complete their autopsy.

Tesla's Director Of Battery Engineering Is Out

Tesla is currently working to address manufacturing issues at its Gigafactory in Nevada, which led to a three month delay in the production schedule of the Model 3 sedan. At the same time, Jalopnik has learned the company’s director of battery engineering left the company in recent weeks.

Jon Wagner, who joined Tesla in 2013, worked as the team leader for battery pack design engineering at the automaker and helped develop technology in the Model S, X, and 3, according to his LinkedIn profile. He also served as Tesla’s interim director for battery manufacturing, body engineering and computer aided engineering, his LinkedIn page says.

Wagner couldn’t be immediately reached for comment. Tesla declined to comment.

Sources said he officially left the company within the past month, but the circumstances of his departure aren’t immediately clear...

https://jalopnik.com/teslas-director-of ... 1820179362
no condition is permanent

edatoakrun
Posts: 4717
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:51 pm

When Musk promised ~5 k a week of model 3 deliveries by next month, he was also promising his shareholders and creditors ~$1 B of model 3 monthly revenue.

It is now a near certainty that model three revenue will not arrive in time to prevent TSLA from running out of cash...again.

The recent price decline of TSLA junk bonds indicates Musk's next appeal for fresh capital may not be as well -received as in the past.

Tesla Sparks Fresh Cash Concerns After Model 3 Rollout Stumbles

Tesla Inc.’s delay in getting mass production going is increasing the likelihood that Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk will need to turn to Wall Street for more capital.

With battery bottlenecks holding up output of the cheaper new Model 3 sedan, Tesla may need more funds in 2018. While Musk has brought in more than $3 billion this year from equity, convertible bond and debt offerings, his electric-car maker has burned through about $2.6 billion in cash during just the last two quarters.

“We worry that another capital raise may be necessary,” Toni Sacconaghi, a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst, wrote in a report to clients. He estimates Tesla will have burned through more than $10 billion in cash by year-end since its founding and that it may be the biggest public company ever to have never generated annual profit or positive cash flow.

“There is a dose of reality for Tesla and the market’s reaction is reflecting that,” said David Kudla, chief executive officer of Mainstay Capital Management LLC. “This raises the question: Can they ever get positive cash flow? Will they ever get there?”

While Tesla exited the third quarter with about $3.5 billion cash in hand, the company is pouring money into its assembly lines and toward the buildup of battery production it needs to deliver more cars and bring in cash...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-stumbles

Tesla’s junk bonds are trading under water — and it could spell trouble for Elon Musk

Tesla Inc. first-ever pure corporate bonds are trading under water, boding ill for the Silicon Valley car maker’s next attempt to tap capital markets.

Tesla TSLA, +0.07% sold $1.8 billion in the senior notes in August at a yield of 5.300%, at the height of excitement about the Model 3 and expectations the sedan’s production ramp would run as smoothly as Chief Executive Elon Musk had predicted.

That same month, Tesla shares rose 10% to mark their last monthly gain this year so far. The stock lost 4.2% in September and 2.8% in October.

The stock is down 9% so far in November, on the heels of a quarterly miss earlier in the month and news that the company has further pushed out its Model 3 production targets.

“Third-quarter results put some pressure on the cash flow needs,” said Efraim Levy, an analyst with CFRA Research. The wider-than-expected quarterly loss and production delays “makes it harder for them to get a sweeter deal than they had in the past,” on capital raising, be it when selling bonds or equity, he said.

The 5.300% notes, which mature in 2025, were trading at 93.81 cents on the dollar on Friday to yield 6.320%, according to trading platform MarketAxess. On a spread basis, they were trading at 393 basis points above comparable Treasurys. The bonds fell under par within a week of issuance, but were holding above 97 cents for much of October.

...the weak performance of the bonds may be a sign that bond investors, at least, are starting to disbelieve Tesla’s growth story and will be looking for higher premiums to take on higher risk, said Trip Miller, a managing partner at hedge fund, Gullane Capital LLC. That higher cost of borrowing will have its own negative implications, he said.

“Maybe the dam is starting to break for Tesla,” Miller said. Gullane does not have a position in Tesla because “their balance sheet is very, very troublesome for us,” he said...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2017-11-10
no condition is permanent

hyperionmark
Posts: 121
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:46 am
Delivery Date: 31 Jan 2017
Location: Nebraska

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:59 pm

Cool story, bro.

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”