edatoakrun wrote:GRA wrote:...What we know is that even most of the (tiny group of) people who were willing to buy sub-100 mile BEVs are stepping up to longer ranged ones now that they're available at comparable prices...
What YOU know is a twisted reality distorted by your petroleum addiction.
Which petroleum addiction would that be, exactly? The bicycle which handles all my commuting and beyond walking range errands? The electrified mass transit which along with my bike handles most of my regional transportation? Or the less than 500 miles I've driven my ICE this year (an anomaly due to constant winter storms and then summer-fall fires in the Sierra, keeping me out of the Sierra and most of my recreation local. Normally it's <= 3k/year)?
edatoakrun wrote:Long range between fuel stops is a cheap high only when the costs of the environmental damage it entails can be imposed on others.
In five or ten years batteries will be cheap and light enough that most people probably will want to pay for sixty (or more) kWh battery packs in their vehicles.
But today, the large majority of BEV buyers prefer better BEVs (and better infrastructure) at far lower financial and environmental costs, and they simply do not suffer from the range anxiety your addiction spawns.
Riiiight, and that's why they're all rushing to buy sub-100 mile BEVs that start at $34k, the automakers are flooding the market with same, and no need for subsidies either. Apropos of that:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171219-fotw.htmlDOE: median EV range in US grew 56% from 73 miles in MY 2011 to 114 miles in MY 2017
. . . In model year 2011, there were just three different models of AEVs available and their ranges on a full charge (according to the Environmental Protection Agency) spanned from 63 to 94 miles.
By model year 2017, the number of AEV models increased to 15 and the available ranges expanded as well, from a minimum of 58 miles for the smart fortwo Electric Drive Coupe to a maximum of 335 miles for the Tesla Model S 100D.
I think you have the situation bass-ackwards - there will undoubtedly come a point at which people decide that BEVs have more than enough range, and range will decrease and a sweet spot will emerge once people are comfortable with the cars and the prices come down; it's a lot easier to justify a car suited purely for local use when it costs $15 - $20k than when it costs $34k; get the price down to $10k and (assuming they're adequate in other areas) they won't be able to keep them in stock. For now though, the vast majority of the car-buying population, including the early adopters, is simply unwilling to accept the limitations of short-range BEVs (or any BEVs, for most of them), and until that changes owing to greater familiarity or more likely massive price hikes in the cost of driving an ICE, few will be willing to change. Most simply don't care enough about environmental issues to make choices based on that.