GRA
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:55 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
GRA wrote:...What we know is that even most of the (tiny group of) people who were willing to buy sub-100 mile BEVs are stepping up to longer ranged ones now that they're available at comparable prices...

What YOU know is a twisted reality distorted by your petroleum addiction.

Which petroleum addiction would that be, exactly? The bicycle which handles all my commuting and beyond walking range errands? The electrified mass transit which along with my bike handles most of my regional transportation? Or the less than 500 miles I've driven my ICE this year (an anomaly due to constant winter storms and then summer-fall fires in the Sierra, keeping me out of the Sierra and most of my recreation local. Normally it's <= 3k/year)?

edatoakrun wrote:Long range between fuel stops is a cheap high only when the costs of the environmental damage it entails can be imposed on others.

In five or ten years batteries will be cheap and light enough that most people probably will want to pay for sixty (or more) kWh battery packs in their vehicles.

But today, the large majority of BEV buyers prefer better BEVs (and better infrastructure) at far lower financial and environmental costs, and they simply do not suffer from the range anxiety your addiction spawns.

Riiiight, and that's why they're all rushing to buy sub-100 mile BEVs that start at $34k, the automakers are flooding the market with same, and no need for subsidies either. Apropos of that:
DOE: median EV range in US grew 56% from 73 miles in MY 2011 to 114 miles in MY 2017

. . . In model year 2011, there were just three different models of AEVs available and their ranges on a full charge (according to the Environmental Protection Agency) spanned from 63 to 94 miles.

By model year 2017, the number of AEV models increased to 15 and the available ranges expanded as well, from a minimum of 58 miles for the smart fortwo Electric Drive Coupe to a maximum of 335 miles for the Tesla Model S 100D.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171219-fotw.html

I think you have the situation bass-ackwards - there will undoubtedly come a point at which people decide that BEVs have more than enough range, and range will decrease and a sweet spot will emerge once people are comfortable with the cars and the prices come down; it's a lot easier to justify a car suited purely for local use when it costs $15 - $20k than when it costs $34k; get the price down to $10k and (assuming they're adequate in other areas) they won't be able to keep them in stock. For now though, the vast majority of the car-buying population, including the early adopters, is simply unwilling to accept the limitations of short-range BEVs (or any BEVs, for most of them), and until that changes owing to greater familiarity or more likely massive price hikes in the cost of driving an ICE, few will be willing to change. Most simply don't care enough about environmental issues to make choices based on that.
Last edited by GRA on Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:01 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:What we know is that even most of the (tiny group of) people who were willing to buy sub-100 mile BEVs are stepping up to longer ranged ones now that they're available at comparable prices.

Based on what? The squeaky wheels at MNL?

Among others, plus the fact that the best selling BEVs in the U.S are also the most expensive ones. Can you point to any other mass-produced tech where there's a competing product where that's the case ? Granted, it's not just Tesla's range that boosts their sales, but that was certainly a major factor in people motivated by environmental issues choosing to step up to cars that cost far more (even used) than they'd typically pay, e.g. early BEV adopters like abasile and dgpcolorado.

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Do you believe Nissan should be offering a lower-cost 24kW 2018 LEAF because of the vast market that awaits it?

I suspect that there will be a market for lower cost BEVs. Exactly what battery size will be the equilibrium low end BEV isn't something that I have a clue about, of course. If you were being honest with yourself, you would say the same.

I agree, have said so before, and make the same point in my immediately preceding post (written before I'd read your post), but as noted there we're not at that point yet, and won't be for some time. In the meantime, PHEVs will likely rule, as they provide enough range for routine use with no limitations on where they can go or forcing people to significantly alter their driving behavior. As far as the Clarity goes, Honda thinks so too.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:23 pm

As to the rationality of small battery local cars, theoretically the most rational one that's currently available is the SMART ED. Here's what one reviewer had to say about it at IEVS, that hotbed of fellow petroleum addicts:

Fun as it may be, Smart’s cute little cabrio is an EV argument that’s tough to justify. . . .

It’s not until you begin to unpack the details of the Smart ForTwo Electric Drive that the cute little runabout begins to lose its luster. The range is the lowest among all electric vehicles. There’s hardly any cargo space. And holy crap, it’s expensive. Smart will only sell the ForTwo as an EV in the U.S. (in all 50 states) from here on out, and all I can say is, well, good luck. . . .

Dat range, tho. Because the Smart is so small, there isn’t a ton of room for big batteries without totally eliminating cargo space. That means you’re left with a 17.6-Kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery that’s rated at just 57 miles of electric range in the Electric Drive Cabriolet (58 in the Coupe). Smart officials say real-world driving tends to yield several more miles of usable range, but you can’t slap an official number of “57” on a window sticker in a time when most EVs are getting at least double that number.

Way too expensive. I could maybe forgive the 57-mile range if this car was like, $20,000. But in fact, only the very base Smart ForTwo Electric Drive Coupe is a bargain, at $23,900 to start, before available EV incentives, making it the cheapest brand-new electric car you can buy in the United States by a long shot. If you want the Cabrio, that’ll be an extra $4,200, and adding options like heated leather seats, touchscreen infotainment with navigation, upgraded audio, and more, bring the as-tested price of the Cabriolet you see here to – wait for it – $32,180. That’s as much as a Volkswagen e-Golf, which amply seats four adults and all their luggage, and carries it 125 miles before needing to be plugged in.

Too many compromises. The ways in which the Smart ForTwo Electric Drive charms me are not unique to itself. Drive any small EV and you’ll be rewarded with fun-around-town handling. The Smart’s party trick of being easy to park and fun to U-turn can’t outweigh all the other sacrifices you have to make to live with one every single day. As a second, urban car, it makes sense. But only if you get the cheapest one possible. And even then. . .
https://insideevs.com/2018-smart-fortwo-electric-drive-cabrio-review-take-two/

He also had some good things to say about it, but I'm concentrating here on the perceived value for money. For a more positive IEVS review by Tom Moloughney, see: https://insideevs.com/2018-smart-fortwo-electric-drive-cabrio-test-drive/

The Smart ED is as close as you can (currently) get in the U.S. to what Ed is talking about, yet total U.S. sales this year are 415 YTD. However, they were phasing out the old model and bringing in the next gen, which caused sales to drop into single digits for 4 months so it's not necessarily representative of actual U.S. market demand. Looking at 2016, 657 were sold in the U.S. for the year, out of total U.S. LDV sales of ~17.6 million. This represents a market share of 373 millionths of a percent. [Edit: I miscounted a decimal, and that number's 10 times too low, not that it significantly alters the conclusion: 657/17,600,000 = 0.00003732954 x 100 = 0.003732954%, i.e. 3,730 millionths or 3.73 thousandths of a percent of the LDV market.]

The one BEV I've driven for an extended period of time (1 week) as opposed to just a single test drive was a pre-production (PIV3) Pivco City Bee, which with improvements later became the Think City: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Think_Global

essentially aiming at the same market the Smart ED does, albeit in a much less refined fashion. It's EPA range would probably be about what the Smart's is now - IIRR the guy who was renting them said he typically got about 70 miles, but could stretch it to about 100 using all the hypermiling tricks we know about. AFAIR (it was 1997 or '98), the furthest I drove it between charges was 55 miles or so on the freeway, as there were no public charging stations then. A week of living with it quickly convinced me of two things:

    Its range was so short as to be very limiting for anything other than local errands and short commutes, and combined with the lack of public charging stations made it unusable for most intra-regional trips;

    L1-only charging (it had a pigtail adapter for L2, but I had nowhere to plug it in), combined with the short range, meant that any time you arrived home with the battery mostly depleted and wanted/needed to go out again on short notice, you were screwed.

At the time, I was told that they were hoping to sell them for $13-$15k. I told the rep that I thought anything over $10k or at the absolute outside $12k (assuming they improved all the other issues besides the range I felt made the vehicle non-commercial at the time) was the most I could see people paying for it. Add 20 years of low inflation to one of those numbers, and that's what I think the Smart or a similar car needs to sell for in the U.S. to find a substantial market.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:53 pm

Clarity PHEV owner's initial Review: https://carswithplugs.wordpress.com/2017/12/18/2018-honda-clarity-phev-initial-review/

And now, back after XMAS!
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

RonDawg
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Sun Dec 24, 2017 6:17 pm

GRA wrote:The Fusion Energi is going to need replacement by a mid-sized PHEV that doesn't just dump the battery under the cargo area. Driving dynamics are okay though not exciting, but the engine's apparently noisy under high power (climbing hills), and the regen paddles don't seem to do much.


A few months back, I rented a Fusion Hybrid (non-plug-in) for a road trip, and the car seemed woefully underpowered. It was like driving a 70's or 80's econobox again. US 50 headed east from Sacramento towards Lake Tahoe required the accelerator pedal be floored for much of the time. Climbing I-70 west of Denver towards the Eisenhower Tunnel required it be floored ALL of the time. This was just to keep up with the posted speed limit with 2 people and luggage in the car.

And yes the ICE was rather noisy during this time. I was also surprised by the weak regen, even weaker than the 2011-2012 Leaf. The car had its own battery charge level meter so I know it wasn't because the battery was full.
Blue Ocean 2012 Leaf SV, lost that 1st bar at 34 months/26,435 miles. Lease returned 2 months later. Final LeafStat figures: 225 Gids, 17.44 kWH, SOC 91.89%, SOH 82.36%, 69.49% HX, 54.57 Ahr, battery temp 61.8 F.
Now driving a 2015 VW eGolf SEL.

GRA
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:10 pm

IEVS is reporting total December Clarity BEV/PHEV sales as taking a huge jump, from 464 (BEV only) last month to 1,425 combined, but apparently they're not going to give the split. I expect there's little doubt that the PHEV makes up the majority (or soon will) given its nationwide availability and more general utility, but no proof yet.

No report of Clarity FCEV leases for the third straight month. Not sure if they're still working on the software issue reported upthread, or if IEVS is just not bothering to list them.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

rmay635703
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:54 pm

As expensive as the BEV is compared to the PHEV I’m surprised they do as well as they do,

I expect some good discounts in a few years.

GRA
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:03 pm

IEVS now says there were 898 PHEVs sold in their first full month on the market, and 527 BEVs, which totals 1,425 by my math. I remain astonished that they can find that many people to buy/lease the BEV. I'm very curious to see what happens now people know the tax credit isn't going away.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:20 pm

rmay635703 wrote:As expensive as the BEV is compared to the PHEV...

GRA wrote:IEVS now says there were 898 PHEVs sold in their first full month on the market, and 527 BEVs, which totals 1,425 by my math. I remain astonished that they can find that many people to buy/lease the BEV...

The BEV is only available in CA and OR, and only by lease, W/O purchase option, $899 down and $199 for 36 months.

I'd expect the PHEV (available nationwide) lease costs to be higher, reflecting the (likely) higher build/depreciation cost.
no condition is permanent

GRA
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Re: Official Honda Clarity FCEV/BEV/PHEV thread

Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:50 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
rmay635703 wrote:As expensive as the BEV is compared to the PHEV...

GRA wrote:IEVS now says there were 898 PHEVs sold in their first full month on the market, and 527 BEVs, which totals 1,425 by my math. I remain astonished that they can find that many people to buy/lease the BEV...

The BEV is only available in CA and OR, and only by lease, W/O purchase option, $899 down and $199 for 36 months.

I'd expect the PHEV (available nationwide) lease costs to be higher, reflecting the (likely) higher build/depreciation cost.

At least they've recognized that almost no one would buy the BEV, when there's so many other options that provide better value for the money, now and in the near future.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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