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RegGuheert
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:47 pm

DeeAgeaux wrote:There is 0% chance Prius Prime outsells Model 3 in 2018. Yes, even Globally.
0%, huh? So you think Tesla can deliver more than about 100,000 Model 3s in 2018? I'm estimating that's how many Toyota Prius Primes will be delivered this year.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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RegGuheert
Posts: 6208
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:13 pm

RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:42 pm


They certainly don't care for the fact that these are all sub-20 mile AER PHEVs, and I mostly agree with them with the exception of the A3. Owners seem to be getting 19-20 miles AER in the real world, so while I'd much rather see it (actually, all of them) with an EPA AER in the low to mid-20s, I give it a pass for now based on its price and general performance. The next (battery) gen of all these cars needs to crack the 20 mile barrier.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:42 pm

January's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 2,236, 32.9% (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 4,564, 67.1% (11 types: Volt; Prius Prime; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Sonata PHEV; Optima PHV; Mini Countryman PHV; Clarity PHEV; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Ionic PHEV)
Total 6,800. BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 8.2%.

Total sub-$40k PEV sales were down 5,647 M-o-M, the usual January sales slump. The absence of the SR Model 3 for quite a while yet will likely delay any major shift in the BEV/PHEV ratio in favor of the former. I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k. So:

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 1,496; BEV, Bolt @ 1,177.

Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

January's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 203, 9.0% (3 types: Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 1,885, 90.1% (3 types: Prius Prime; C-Max Energi, Kia NIro PHEV)
Total 2,088. Decrease/Increase of 1.1% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 1,496; BEV Smart ED @ 84.

The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

January's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 84, 79.2% (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 22, 20.8% (1 type, Ionic PHEV)
Total 106.

BEV, Smart ED @ 84; PHEV, Ionic PHEV @ 22. This is the Ionic PHEV's first month of availability, so I expect sales to climb rapidly for a while as stocks increase, and with its price advantage we'll see if it overtakes the Prime.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:14 pm

In the U.S. in February, the LEAF (895) did not quite catch up to the Chevy Volt (983). I will go on record and predict that February 2018 will be the last month ever that the Chevy Volt beats the LEAF in the U.S. (Of course it has never beaten the LEAF worldwide, at least not in terms of yearly sales.)
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12976
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Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:34 pm

RegGuheert wrote:In the U.S. in February, the LEAF (895) did not quite catch up to the Chevy Volt (983). I will go on record and predict that February 2018 will be the last month ever that the Chevy Volt beats the LEAF in the U.S. (Of course it has never beaten the LEAF worldwide, at least not in terms of yearly sales.)


Realize we "barely" had a half month of sales in WA State and guessing most areas of the country were about the same
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 5775 miles, 488 GIDs, 38 kwh 113.37 Ahr available, SOH 98.21, Hx 115.75
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA
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Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:06 pm

RegGuheert wrote:In the U.S. in February, the LEAF (895) did not quite catch up to the Chevy Volt (983). I will go on record and predict that February 2018 will be the last month ever that the Chevy Volt beats the LEAF in the U.S. (Of course it has never beaten the LEAF worldwide, at least not in terms of yearly sales.)

Entirely likely, although at the moment I suspect that's due more to the Volt having a lot more competition than the LEAF. The Volt has the Clarity PHEV in its own price/AER class, and shorter range PHEVs that are thousands of dollars less expensive (Prime, Ionic) as well as the aging Fusion, plus the Bolt. The question I have is will the LEAF be able to fight off competition from the Kona Electric when it arrives, as the small battery Kona should provide similar range to the 40-kWh LEAF but in the more popular CUV body style, while the bigger battery model will compete with both the 60kWh LEAF as well as the Bolt (always assuming that Hyundai prices the Kona competitively, but I expect they will).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12976
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:13 pm

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:In the U.S. in February, the LEAF (895) did not quite catch up to the Chevy Volt (983). I will go on record and predict that February 2018 will be the last month ever that the Chevy Volt beats the LEAF in the U.S. (Of course it has never beaten the LEAF worldwide, at least not in terms of yearly sales.)

Entirely likely, although at the moment I suspect that's due more to the Volt having a lot more competition than the LEAF. The Volt has the Clarity PHEV in its own price/AER class, and shorter range PHEVs that are thousands of dollars less expensive (Prime, Ionic) as well as the aging Fusion, plus the Bolt. The question I have is will the LEAF be able to fight off competition from the Kona Electric when it arrives, as the small battery Kona should provide similar range to the 40-kWh LEAF but in the more popular CUV body style, while the bigger battery model will compete with both the 60kWh LEAF as well as the Bolt (always assuming that Hyundai prices the Kona competitively, but I expect they will).


Rumors say Kona coming to states with LR pack only which makes it direct competitor to Bolt, not LEAF
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 5775 miles, 488 GIDs, 38 kwh 113.37 Ahr available, SOH 98.21, Hx 115.75
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA
Posts: 8565
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:19 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:[
Rumors say Kona coming to states with LR pack only which makes it direct competitor to Bolt, not LEAF

I'd forgotten that rumor. We'll see if the rumors are accurate.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 8565
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:09 pm

IEVS has finally published their full U.S. sales list for February:

February's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 3,185 (Jan 2,236), 34.5% (Jan 32.9%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 6,053 (Jan 4,564), 65.5% (Jan 67.1%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ionic PHEV)
Total 9,117 (Jan 6,800). BEV/PHEV % increased/decreased by 1.6%.

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k. So:

PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,050 (Jan 1,496).
BEV: Bolt @ 1,424 (Jan 1,177) .

Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

February's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 1,061 (Jan 203), 28.9% (Jan 9.0%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,616 (Jan 1,885), 71.1% (Jan 90.1%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai; Ionic PHEV; C-Max Energi)
Total 3,503 (Jan 2,088). Increase/decrease of 19.9% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively, owing to the arrival of the 2018 LEAF and my counting all LEAFs sold in Feb. as 2018s (last month, I assumed all LEAFs were 2017s).

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 2,050 (Jan 1,496).
BEV, LEAF @ 895 (Jan 84).

The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

February's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 90 (Jan 84), 33.6% (Jan 79.2%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 178 (Jan 22), 66.4% (Jan 20.8%): (1 type, Ionic PHEV).
Total 268. BEV/PHEV decrease/increase of 45.6%. I'm guessing Hyundai's still ramping up the stock of the Ionic, and I haven't seen any ads for it yet.
Last edited by GRA on Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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